STATSYSTEMS SPORTS MLB REPORT
THURSDAY, JULY 24th 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Thursday, 7/24/14 MLB Information *****
(ALL RESULTS VS. ML) - Against The Money-Line - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2014 Major League Baseball season we will analyze all of your daily baseball action, featuring on hot and cold pitchers, hot and cold teams, over/unders and home plate umpire trends. We will also highlight some of our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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MLB Betting News and Notes - Week #17
•Rays' Escobar Booted After Strikeout: Tampa Bay Rays shortstop Yunel Escobar was ejected from Wednesday night's game with the St. Louis Cardinals after arguing a called third strike in the top of the fourth inning. Escobar started to first base after taking a 3-2 pitch, but home plate umpire Dan Bellino rung him up. Escobar jumped up and down about 10 feet from the plate and then confronted Bellino, who booted him. Escobar was the second Ray to be kicked out in as many nights. Manager Joe Maddon was heaved in Tuesday night's 7-2 win by plate umpire Mark Ripperger in the third inning. Bellino leads all MLB umpires in ejections this year with six.
•Masahiro Tanaka Still Has Elbow Pain: New York Yankees general manager Brian Cashman said Wednesday that Masahiro Tanaka, the ace of his pitching staff, is still feeling discomfort in his pitching elbow despite not having picked up a baseball since receiving a platelet-rich plasma injection 10 days ago. Speaking on ESPN New York 98.7 FM's "The Michael Kay Show," Cashman gave the following update on Tanaka: "He's improved, but he still feels it, although on a daily basis it decreases. So that's good but it's not good that he's still feeling it at this stage. So it's just day-by-day, week-by-week and we'll adjust accordingly. It's too early to call." Tanaka was diagnosed with a partially-torn ulnar collateral ligament via MRI after complaining of elbow pain following an ineffective performance against the Indians in Cleveland on July 8.
•Maybin Suspended, Padres Call Up Francoeur: San Diego Padres outfielder Cameron Mayin was suspended 25 games without pay after testing positive for an Amphetamine in violation of Major League Baseball's Joint Drug Prevention and Treatment Program. The suspension was effective immediately, and the Padres purchased the contract of outfielder Jeff Francoeur from Triple-A El Paso. Maybin is hitting just .247 in 174 at-bats this season, appearing in 62 games. He has one home run and nine RBIs to go with three stolen bases.
Francoeur was in the starting lineup for the Padres' game against the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field on Wednesday, and hit a two-run double in the first inning. The 30-year-old was released by the Cleveland Indians during the final week of spring training and signed a minor-league deal with the Padres on March 25. He was hitting .294 with 15 home runs and 60 RBIs in 98 games with El Paso. Francoeur has a .263 career batting average in parts of nine seasons in the majors.
•Nationals Put Zimmerman On DL: The Washington Nationals placed infielder/outfielder Ryan Zimmerman on the 15-day disabled list with a right hamstring strain, the team announced Wednesday. Zimmerman, 29, goes on the DL for the second time this season after missing 44 games with a right thumb fracture earlier in the year. He is hitting .282 with five home runs, 19 doubles and 36 RBIs. In the month of July, Zimmerman collected 21 hits in 58 at-bats (.362), posted a .418 on-base percentage and a .569 slugging percentage with eight extra-base hits (six doubles, two home runs).
The Nationals also recalled infielder Zach Walters from Syracuse of the Triple-A International League. Walters, 24, rejoins the Nationals for his second stint of the season. In 60 games at Triple-A this season, Walters is hitting .300 with a .358 on-base percentage and a .608 slugging percentage. While racking up 38 extra-base hits, Walters has hit 15 home runs with 48 RBIs.
•Yankees Put Johnson On DL: The New York Yankees placed infielder Kelly Johnson on the 15-day disabled list with a strained left groin, the team announced Wednesday. Johnson was removed from Tuesday night's game against the Texas Rangers after suffering the injury. Johnson is hitting .219 with six home runs and 22 RBIs in 201 at-bats this season. The Yankees also called up right-hander Chris Leroux from Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre and designated right-hander Bruce Billings for assignment.
•Milone Reached Out To Melvin About Trade Request: A’s manager Bob Melvin said he’s spoken with pitcher Tommy Milone, who made news Monday when it surfaced that he’s requested that Oakland trade him. It was Milone that sought Melvin out for a phone conversation, the lefty apparently wanting to clear the air and make sure his big league manager knows where he’s coming from. Milone was optioned to Triple-A Sacramento on July 5 despite posting sparkling numbers leading up to his demotion, and Oakland’s big league rotation looks booked as it currently stands following the trade for starters Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel.
Fox Sports reported Monday that Milone has asked for a trade, and that the New York Yankees are one team interested in him. Milone has declined comment on the matter. “He got a hold of me when all of this was coming out. I’m pretty sure he didn’t expect this to get the play it has,” Melvin said. “To an extent, he’s looking out for his big league career, and he’s pitched really well for us. You don’t blame him for wanting to be in the big leagues. It doesn’t mean he doesn’t want to be here. He does wanna be here. He’s respected by his teammates, and he respects the situation going on here. But he wants to be in the big leagues, and I don’t blame him for that.” Milone was 6-0 with a 2.62 ERA over his previous 11 starts before being optioned to Sacramento.
•One Strip Club Has Quite The Retirement Gift For Derek Jeter: Who needs retirement gifts like a rocking chair and gold watch? Nothing says congratulations on a brilliant baseball career quite like freebies at a... strip club? An all-nude joint in New York City is offering Derek Jeter and the rest of the Yankees organization free lap dances Sept. 7, the same day that the team is officially honoring the captain. All Yankee employees will receive free admission and two free lap dances, the Show Palace in Queens announced. Plus, the dancers will be painted in pinstripes.
If Jeter himself were to show up, a rep tells The Huffington Post, he "gets unlimited lap dances and food and a lifetime free-entry pass to Show Palace as a thank you for his years of service as a New York Yankee." Of course, Jeter has cultivated a generally clean image throughout his tenure, so it's doubtful he'd accept. But nice to know the offer stands. We reached out to the Yankees for comment, but we aren't holding our breath for a return. Show Palace isn't the first area nudie bar to use sports for publicity, but at least the public can benefit if it chooses: All fans wearing a Jeter jersey on Sept. 7 will get free admission as well, the club said. It should be noted, however, that Show Palace already offers gratis entry via its website before 10 p.m.
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Betting Notes - Thursday
National League
•Giants-Phillies - 1:05 PM
--Hudson is 1-0, 1.32 in his last two road starts.
--Hamels is 2-0, 2.61 in his last three starts.
--Giants won six of their last seven games.
--Phillies lost 12 of last 15 games at home.
--Over is 7-1-1 in Hudson's last nine starts.
•Marlins-Braves - 7:10 PM
--Alvarez is 0-2, 9.39 in his last couple starts.
--Harang is 4-0, 2.38 in his last five starts.
--Marlins won three of their last four games.
--Atlanta lost three of its last five games.
--Last four Alvarez starts went over the total; four of last five Harang starts stayed under.
•Padres-Cubs - 8:05 PM
--Ross is 2-2, 0.93 in his last four starts.
--Jackson is 0-3, 7.18 in his last five starts.
--San Diego lost six of its last eight road games.
--Cubs lost 11 of their last 15 games.
--Last ten Ross starts stayed under the total.
•Mets-Brewers - 8:10 PM
--Gee is 1-1, 4.00 in his last three starts.
--Garza got knocked out in first inning last start, allowing five runs (42 PT).
--Mets won 10 of their last 14 games.
--Milwaukee won its last four home games.
--Five of last seven Gee starts stayed under total.
American League
•Red Sox-Blue Jays - 12:35 PM
--De La Rosa is 2-0, 1.73 in his last four starts.
--Stroman is 4-1, 1.82 in six home starts.
--Boston won eight of its last eleven games.
--Blue Jays lost ten of their last sixteen games.
--Under is 5-1-1 in de la Rosa starts this season.
•Rangers-Yankees - 1:05 PM
--Lewis is 0-2, 18.42 in his last two starts.
--McCarthy is 1-0, 3.55 in two starts (2-0) for New York.
--Rangers lost 27 of their last 33 games.
--Yankees won six of its last eight games.
--Under is 10-2-2 in last fourteen New York home games; eight of last ten Lewis starts went over the total.
•Astros-Athletics - 3:35 PM
--Feldman is 0-2, 5.89 in his last three starts.
--Samardzija is 1-1, 3.27 in three starts for Oakland.
--Houston lost 13 of its last 19 road games.
--Oakland won 14 of its last 17 home games.
--Nine of last twelve Feldman starts went over total.
•Indians-Royals - 8:10 PM
--Kluber is 3-0, 2.74 in his last three starts.
--Duffy is 0-3, 3.86 in his last three starts.
--Cleveland lost three of its last four games.
--Kansas City lost seven of its last ten games, but won last two.
--Last six Duffy starts stayed under the total.
•White Sox-Twins - 8:10 PM
--Noesi is 2-2, 5.64 in his last four starts.
--Hughes is 2-3, 5.94 in his last five starts.
--White Sox lost three of their last four games.
--Minnesota lost four of its last six games.
--11 of last 15 White Sox games stayed under.
•Tigers-Angels - 10:05 PM
--Scherzer is 3-1, 1.87 in his last five starts.
--Richards is 7-0, 1.25 in his last nine starts.
--Detroit won three of its last four games.
--Angels won 15 of their last 20 games.
--Last three Richards starts stayed under the total.
•Orioles-Mariners - 10:10 PM
--Chen won three straight starts behind a 4.32 ERA.
--Iwakuma is 3-0 over his last four starts with a 1.57 ERA.
--Baltimore won three of their last five games.
--Mariners lost five of its last seven games.
--Over is 6-1 in Chens last 7 starts as a road underdog.
•Teams' Record When This Starting Pitcher Starts
-- Hudson 12-6; Hamels 7-10
-- Alvarez 13-7; Harang 11-8
-- Ross 9-12; Jackson 6-14
-- Gee 5-5; Garza 10-10
-- De La Rosa 4-3; Stroman 4-5
-- Lewis 8-9; McCarthy 4-14/2-0
-- Feldman 6-11; Samardzija 3-14/2-1
-- Kluber 13-8; Duffy 5-9
-- Noesi 7-8; Hughes 13-7
-- Scherzer 14-6; Richards 15-5
-- Chen 12-7; Iwakuma 9-6
•Umpires Trends
-- SF-Phil-- Four of last six Pattillo games went over; visitor won last four.
-- Mia-Atl-- Favorites won five of last six Foster games.
-- SD-Chi-- Four of last five Kulpa games stayed under.
-- Tex-NY-- 10 of last 13 Iassogna games stayed under total.
-- Bos-Tor-- Favorites won seven of last ten Hernandez games.
-- Hst-A's-- Over is 7-0-1 in last eight Schrieber games.
•Incredible Stat of the Day
Giants pitcher Tim Hudson is 19-3 (86.3%) his last twenty-two away team starts, including 11-2 against the money line in road games in the second half of the season over the last three seasons. The right-hander benefited from eight days off before his outing Saturday, allowing one run in 7 1/3 innings in a 5-3 win at Miami. He was 0-4 with a 6.07 ERA in his final five starts before the All-Star break.
Diamond Trends - Thursday
•MINNESOTA is 6-22 (-16.8 Units) against the money line in home games versus an American League team with an on base percentage .320 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MINNESOTA 3.2, OPPONENT 5.9.
•SAN DIEGO is 54-22 UNDER (+28.4 Units) versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game this season.
The average score was SAN DIEGO 2.9, OPPONENT 3.3.
•TEXAS is 9-27 (-24.4 Units) against the run line with an on base percentage of .310 or worse over their last 20 games this season.
The average score was TEXAS 3.6, OPPONENT 5.5.
•AARON HARANG is 2-12 (-12.9 Units) against the money line in home games versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was HARANG 2.8, OPPONENT 5.1.
•TYSON ROSS is 14-2 UNDER (+11.5 Units) versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was ROSS 2.2, OPPONENT 2.7.
•EDWIN JACKSON is 5-19 (-19.4 Units) against the run line versus poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was JACKSON 3.7, OPPONENT 6.3.
Situation Analysis of The Day
•Play Against - All underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (DETROIT) - with a starting pitcher whose winning percentage is better than 70% against opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 or better on the season - American League.
(54-12 over the last 5 seasons.) (81.8%, +38.4 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -130.4
The average score in these games was: Team 5.2, Opponent 3.3 (Average run differential = +1.9)
The situation's record this season is: (5-2, +2.2 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (31-8, +20.3 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (151-89, +32.7 units).
•Play On - All teams against a run line. (+1.5, -130) to (-1.5, +160) (TORONTO) - below average hitting team (AVG <=.265) against an excellent starting pitcher (ERA <=3.20) - American League, with a poor bullpen whose ERA is 4.50 or worse on the season.
(61-27 over the last 5 seasons.) (69.3%, +36.4 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (58-30 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average run line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 0.5, money line price: +104
The average score in these games was: Team 4.8, Opponent 3.6 (Average run differential = +1.2)
The number of games in which this system covered the run line by 1 or more runs was 51 (58% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (10-5, +4.2 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (19-14, +2.9 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (125-76, +42 units).
•Play Over - Home teams where the total is 7 to 8.5 (SEATTLE) - bad offensive team (<=4.5 runs/game) against a decent starting pitcher (ERA=4.20 to 4.70) - American League, starting a pitcher who did not walk a hitter last outing.
(44-18 since 1997.) (71%, +24.9 units. Rating = 2*)
The average total posted in these games was: 7.9, Money Line=-106.1
The average score in these games was: Team 4.6, Opponent 4.9 (Total runs scored = 9.5)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 1 or more runs was 36 (59% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (3-4, -1.2 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (12-12, -0.6 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (27-15, +11.2 units).
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w-thumbs!^
