STATSYSTEMS SPORTS MLB REPORT
THURSDAY, JUNE 19TH 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Thursday, 6/19/14 MLB Information *****
(ALL RESULTS VS. ML) - Against The Money-Line - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2014 Major League Baseball season we will analyze all of your daily baseball action, featuring on hot and cold pitchers, hot and cold teams, over/unders and home plate umpire trends. We will also highlight some of our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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MLB Betting News and Notes - Week #12
•Phillies Ride Hot Bats To Road Sweep Of Braves: The heat can do funny things to the mind. So on a day when the temperature at Turner Field was 90 degrees and climbing at first pitch, you had to wonder: Is this real, or is it some shimmering mirage meant to tease fans who hope for a meaningful summer of baseball in Philadelphia? The Phillies spent three days in Dixie not only sweeping a three-game series from the Atlanta Braves and knocking them from first place in the National League East, but also sending a message to their own front office that they shouldn’t be counted for dead in the division race.
At least not yet. The Phils completed the sweep Wednesday afternoon with a 10-5 win. They had a season-high 18 hits and their improving bullpen pitched three more scoreless innings to finish the series with one run allowed in 11 innings. Wednesday’s victory was the Phillies’ seventh in the last nine games and though they are still six games under .500, they will be no more than five games out of first place when they open a series in St. Louis on Thursday night. The Phillies haven’t won four in a row since early June 2013. That’s over a year. If this little run is for real, they will make a good showing against a tough team in St. Louis. If it’s just a mirage then, oh, well, they were three fun days in Atlanta and we return you to your regularly scheduled programming as you wait for Amaro to blow up the team.
•Cubs Make Samardzija An Offer He Can Refuse: The Cubs did indeed recently present star righthanded pitcher Jeff Samardzija with a new five-year contract offer. However, the chances of Samardzija signing the new proposal amount to something akin to the outmanned, out-of-it Cubs winning the World Series this year. If the odds are slightly better than that, it isn't much. The Cubs are said by sources familiar with the talks to have upped their previous bid of about $60 million for five years to a bigger number, also for five years, confirming the original Chicago Sun-Times report. The new offer isn't known but it's quite possibly something more in the range of $75-80 million but most definitely not in the vicinity of the $105 million guarantee Homer Bailey has with the Reds.
And even that probably wouldn't get it done, anyway. Samardzija hasn't countered the Cubs' offer yet, he isn't obligated to counter it, and he may never counter it. As in the past, the sides appear to remain uncomfortably apart. Considering his priorities, that shouldn't be surprising. From everything we've heard about Samardzija over his fairly short Cubs tenure, he values two things above all else. First and foremost is winning. And he's on the Cubs, so they are at an immense handicap to start, at least for the foreseeable future. Second on Samardzija's short priority list is having the chance to be paid his true market value. To do that, normally one has to go on the market, which won't happen until he's a free agent after the 2015 season.
While the Cubs have increased their multiyear offers by eons from their first proposal, which was thought to have been somewhat comparable to Derek Holland's $28.5-million, five year deal (if a bit higher), and the exact new offer isn't known, either, the market for a No. 1 or even No. 2 pitcher who's on the right side of 30 is likely very high, much higher than most of us can imagine. Top-of-the-rotation starters don't often make it to market, but when they do, there is a feeding frenzy – see Zack Greinke -- which is probably why the small-market Reds gave Bailey that nine-figure guarantee.
Samardzija is better than Bailey, and he strikes most of us as a bigger risk-taker than just about anyone, at least for the willingness to bet on himself. And why not? There aren't any 29 year olds with a fresher arm, thanks to his early years as a football star and then a bullpen piece (and fairly also, the Cubs' care -- they shut him down with a month to go in 2012). The market for such a pitcher surely isn't $75-to-80 million, or even $85 million if they stretch it to the old Jered Weaver deal.
Beyond Baliey, there are even higher comparables, if you're figuring free-agent years could put him comfortably into $20-million-a-year territory, such as Matt Cain's $112.5-million, five-year extension that guaranteed him $127.5 million over six, and Cole Hamels' $144-million, six-year deal. While those two pitchers are far more accomplished than Samardzija, there is a decent argument to be made that the lack of innings on Samardzija's arm, and therefore lack of stress, may make him as good or better bet for the future.
•Workman Begins 6-Game Suspension: Red Sox pitcher Brandon Workman lost an appeal of his six-game suspension for throwing near the head of Tampa Bay's Evan Longoria and he began serving it Wednesday. Workman was ejected from a May 30 game against the Rays for throwing up and behind third baseman Longoria. The right-hander appealed and it was upheld on Wednesday. Earlier in that game, both teams were issued warnings by home plate umpire Dan Bellino when Rays left-hander David Price hit David Ortiz near the right hip with the first pitch in the opening inning. Workman made three starts after his appeal. He's 1-0 with a 2.88 ERA in eight games.
•Tigers Designate Reed For Assignment: The Detroit Tigers have designated reliever Evan Reed for assignment, calling up right-hander Chad Smith from Triple-A Toledo on Wednesday. Reed went 0-1 with a 4.88 ERA for the Tigers. In his last 11 appearances, the right-hander posted a 7.71 ERA. Manager Brad Ausmus says the move had nothing to do with Reed's legal situation. Reed faces a sexual assault complaint, though prosecutors have not yet said whether he will be charged. Detroit purchased Smith's contract after he went 4-2 with a 1.64 ERA in 15 games for Toledo. He also made seven appearances with Double-A Erie. The Tigers have lost 19 of their last 28 to fall out of first place in the AL Central - with their bullpen among the primary culprits for the slide.
•Stanton Leaves Marlins Game With Wrist Injury: National League home run leader Giancarlo Stanton has left the Miami Marlins' game against the Chicago Cubs with a bruised left wrist but said he expects to be back in the lineup Thursday. Stanton was hurt when he hit the fence in right field chasing Chris Coghlan's double in the first inning Wednesday. Stanton hit his 20th homer in the bottom of the first but said the wrist bothered him more as the game progressed, and he left after six innings. Stanton also leads the NL with 57 RBIs, and he hasn't missed a game this season.
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Betting Notes - Thursday
National League
•Reds-Pirates - 12:35 PM
--Bailey is 4-0, 3.51 in his last five starts.
--Locke is 0-1, 1.80 in his last couple starts.
--Reds won six of their last seven games.
--Pirates are 4-6 in their last ten home games.
--Four of last five Pittsburgh games went over total.
•Brewers-Arizona - 3:40 PM
--Gallardo is 1-0, 0.64 in his last two starts.
--Anderson is 3-1, 3.52 in his last four starts.
--Milwaukee won six of its last eight road games.
--Diamondbacks lost six of their last eight games.
--Six of last seven Arizona games went over the total.
•Braves-Nationals - 7:05 PM
--Floyd is 1-1, 4.70 in his last four starts.
--Zimmerman is 2-1, 0.36 in his last three starts.
--Braves lost six of their last eight games.
--Washington won its last five home games.
--Over is 5-1-1 in last seven Atlanta games.
•Mets-Marlins - 7:10 PM
--Wheeler is 0-2, 4.70 in his last three starts.
--Heaney is making first MLB start; he was 3-0, 2.74 in four AAA starts.
--Mets lost eight of their last nine road games.
--Marlins lost eight of their last twelve home games.
--Over is 5-2-1 in Mets' last eight road games.
•Phillies-Cardinals - 8:15 PM
--Buchanan is 1-3, 6.85 in his last four starts.
--Miller is 1-0, 0.57 in his last two starts.
--Philly won four of its last five games.
--Cardinals won eight of their last ten games.
--Nine of last thirteen Miller starts stayed under.
American League
•Angels-Indians - 12:05 PM
--Wilson is 1-3, 4.94 in his last four starts.
--Masterson is 2-1, 4.30 in his last three starts.
--Angels lost eight of their last eleven road games.
--Indians won ten of their last eleven home games.
--Five of last seven Cleveland games stayed under.
•Royals-Tigers - 1:05 PM
--Duffy is 2-0, 1.45 in his last three starts.
--Sanchez is 3-0, 2.50 in his last six starts.
--Kansas City won its last ten games, is in first place.
--Tigers lost 11 of their last 17 home games.
--Over is 11-4-1 in last sixteen Detroit home games.
•Blue Jays-Yankees - 7:05 PM
--Hutchison is 1-1, 2.65 in his last three starts.
--Phelps is 1-4, 5.75 in his last five starts.
--Blue Jays won eight of last ten road games.
--Yankees won six of its last eight games.
--Six of last nine Bronx games stayed under total.
•Astros-Rays - 7:10 PM
--McHugh is 0-1, 6.75 in his last couple starts.
--Archer has a 2.86 RA but no wins in his last five starts.
--Astros lost four of their last five games.
--Tampa Bay lost eight of its last eleven home games.
--Three of last four Houston games went over total.
•White Sox-Twins - 8:10 PM
--Quintana is 0-3, 8.27 in his last three starts.
--Pino is making MLB debut; he is a 30-year old rookie who was 9-1, 1.92 in 14 AAA games this year, making only seven starts.
--White Sox lost five of their last seven road games.
--Minnesota lost its last five games, scoring two runs in last three.
--Eight of last twelve Quintana starts stayed under.
•Red Sox-Athletics - 10:05 PM
--Peavy is 0-3, 5.98 in his last seven starts.
--Kazmir is 3-0, 1.27 in his last four starts.
--Red Sox won five of their last seven home games.
--Oakland won seven of its last nine home games.
--Six of last nine Oakland home games went over.
Interleague
•Mariners-Padres - 6:40 PM
--Ramirez is 0-1, 3.38 in his last four starts.
--Hahn is 1-1, 3.72 in his first two MLB starts.
--Seattle won six of its last eight road games.
--Padres lost eight of their last ten games.
--Eight of last ten San Diego games stayed under.
Diamond Trends - Thursday
•ST LOUIS is 22-3 (+17.5 Units) against the money line in home games against National League East opponents over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was ST LOUIS 4.6, OPPONENT 2.2.
•DETROIT is 11-1 OVER (+9.7 Units) versus good defensive catchers - allowing 0.5 or less SB's/game this season.
The average score was DETROIT 5.8, OPPONENT 6.5.
•KANSAS CITY is 16-2 (+15.4 Units) against the run line in road games versus teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game this season.
The average score was KANSAS CITY 5.9, OPPONENT 2.8.
•JORDAN ZIMMERMANN is 41-14 (+24.2 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was ZIMMERMANN 4.9, OPPONENT 3.2.
•ANIBAL SANCHEZ is 12-3 OVER (+9.1 Units) in home games versus an American League team with an on base percentage .330 or worse over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was SANCHEZ 6.2, OPPONENT 3.9.
•SCOTT KAZMIR is 19-5 (+16.5 Units) against the run line versus an American League team with they batting average of .260 or worse over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was KAZMIR 5.9, OPPONENT 2.9.
Situation Analysis of The Day
•Play On - All favorites with a money line of -150 or more (TAMPA BAY) - below average American League hitting team (AVG <=.265) against a good starting pitcher (ERA <=4.20) -AL, with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 or better on the season.
(267-100 since 1997.) (72.8%, +96.1 units. Rating = 3*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -170.9
The average score in these games was: Team 5.1, Opponent 3.4 (Average run differential = +1.7)
The situation's record this season is: (22-8, +7.4 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (78-39, +10.1 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (146-62, +40.2 units).
•Play On - Road underdogs against a 1.5 run line. (Money Line =-190 to -135) (ATLANTA) - with a team batting average of .245 or worse on the season (National League) against opponent with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 3.00 over his last 10 games.
(65-14 since 1997.) (82.3%, +42.2 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (37-42)
The average run line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 1.5, money line price: -163
The average score in these games was: Team 4.3, Opponent 3.7 (Average run differential = +0.6)
The number of games in which this system covered the run line by 1 or more runs was 37 (46.8% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (6-1, +4.4 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (28-7, +16.1 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (46-12, +26.5 units).
•Play Under - All teams where the total is 7 or less (SEATTLE) - below average American League hitting team (AVG <=.265) against a team with a very good bullpen (ERA <=3.33), with a very good bullpen whose ERA is 3.33 or better on the season.
(80-40 since 1997.) (66.7%, +34.5 units. Rating = 2*)
The average total posted in these games was: 6.9, Money Line=-113.6
The average score in these games was: Team 3.1, Opponent 2.8 (Total runs scored = 6)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 1 or more runs was 63 (56.2% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (2-6, -5.1 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (54-31, +19.2 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (64-36, +23.3 units).
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w-thumbs!^
