STATSYSTEMS SPORTS NCAAF REPORT
THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 6th 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** NCAA College Football Information – Week #11 *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every week during the 2014-15 NCAA College Football season we will analyze all of your daily football action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups. Content contained in this report remains exclusive private property of StatSystems Sports. Database information may not be reused or disseminated in any form without express written consent of the publisher.
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#111 CLEMSON @ #112 WAKE FOREST
TV: 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
Line: Clemson -21, Total: 42
Wake Forest is winless in the Atlantic Coast Conference and having some trouble scoring points since moving into conference play. The Demon Deacons hope to solve their offensive problems and play a role in the race at the top of the conference when they host No. 19 Clemson on Thursday evening. The Tigers are winners of five straight thanks in large part to a defense that has allowed an average of nine points in the last four contests. Wake has lost 10 in a row against ranked opponents since a 35-30 home victory over No. 23 Florida State on October 8th, 2011.
That Clemson defense is taking on a Wake Forest rushing attack that ranks last among 128 FBS teams with an average of 34.5 yards on the ground and a scoring offense sitting at 125th with an average of 14.8 points. “We aren't as strong or as physical as we need to be,” Demon Deacons head coach Dave Clawson told reporters. “We're very young in a lot of our linemen positions, but that is part of a rebuild. We will get a little stronger every year.” Wake Forest was crushed 56-7 at Clemson last season.
•ABOUT CLEMSON (6-2, 5-1 ACC): The Tigers are hanging in second place in the Atlantic Division, waiting around in case No. 2 Florida State implodes down the stretch and opens up a spot in the ACC title game. Clemson has been less explosive on offense in three games under quarterback Cole Stoudt, who took over for freshman Deshaun Watson (hand) against Louisville on October 11th, but the defense is making up the difference as it held Syracuse to two first-half field goals and 170 total yards in a 16-6 win on October 25th. “As long as we have one more point than the opponent, that’s all that matters,” head coach Dabo Swinney told reporters. “We got it done.”
•ABOUT WAKE FOREST (2-6, 0-4 ACC): The 23-17 home loss to Boston College on October 25th, marked the Demon Deacons’ highest-scoring effort since a 24-21 win over Army on September 20th, which matched their best output of the season. Freshman quarterback John Wolford has one touchdown pass and six interceptions in conference play and gets little help from a ground game that totaled 19 yards in the loss to Boston College. “We've got a lot of things to clean up,” Clawson told reporters. “We're early in this process, and if we can establish effort as a starting point, then we are headed in the right direction."
•PREGAME NOTES: Clemson has had a winning streak of at least six games in each of the last three seasons.... Demon Deacons K Mike Weaver is 9-for-9 on field-goal attempts this campaign.... Watson, who is second nationally in passing efficiency, returned to practice last week but is doubtful to play Thursday.... Clemson has won five in a row over Wake Forest including two straight in Winston-Salem by a combined 72-23 score. Aside from a 31-28 home victory over the Demon Deacons in 2011, the Tigers have given up 33 points while winning the other four by at least 20. Clemson's 39.4 scoring average over those five was boosted by that 49-point rout in 2013.... Although, the Tigers are 3-9 ATS as road chalk of more than 14 points and 3-7 ATS away off three straight ATS losses. More importantly, according to our database conference home dogs of 3 or more points off back-to-back SU home losses are 58-32 ATS which tightens to 13-2-1 ATS when taking 18 or more points.
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•KEY STATS
--CLEMSON is 5-18 ATS (-14.8 Units) after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 4 straight games since 1992.
The average score was CLEMSON 30.2, OPPONENT 21.2.
--CLEMSON is 28-13 UNDER (+13.7 Units) after a bye week since 1992.
The average score was CLEMSON 24.8, OPPONENT 23.4.
--CLEMSON is 13-3 UNDER (+9.7 Units) in road games after allowing 14 points or less in 2 straight games since 1992.
The average score was CLEMSON 24.5, OPPONENT 22.1.
--CLEMSON is 7-0 against the 1rst half line (+7.0 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was CLEMSON 33.7, OPPONENT 10.7.
--CLEMSON is 12-1 OVER (+10.9 Units) the 1rst half total when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) since 1992.
The average score was CLEMSON 18.3, OPPONENT 9.5.
--CLEMSON is 8-0 OVER (+8.0 Units) the 1rst half total versus terrible ball control teams, <28 minutes TOP, <=16 FD's per game since 1992.
The average score was CLEMSON 19.7, OPPONENT 11.3.
--WAKE FOREST is 19-6 UNDER (+12.4 Units) after gaining 125 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games since 1992.
The average score was WAKE FOREST 18.6, OPPONENT 28.6.
--WAKE FOREST is 0-7 against the 1rst half line (-7.7 Units) in home games after being outrushed by 125 or more yards last game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was WAKE FOREST 8.3, OPPONENT 22.0.
--WAKE FOREST is 10-1 OVER (+8.9 Units) the 1rst half total as a home underdog versus the 1rst half line over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was WAKE FOREST 11.0, OPPONENT 19.5.
--WAKE FOREST is 9-1 OVER (+7.9 Units) the 1rst half total in home games after playing a conference game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was WAKE FOREST 12.1, OPPONENT 18.2.
--WAKE FOREST is 9-1 OVER (+7.9 Units) the 1rst half total in home games after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was WAKE FOREST 10.9, OPPONENT 17.5.
•COACHING TRENDS
--DABO SWINNEY is 30-17 ATS (+11.3 Units) against conference opponents as the coach of CLEMSON.
The average score was CLEMSON 34.0, OPPONENT 21.9.
--DABO SWINNEY is 22-7 OVER (+14.3 Units) the 1rst half total off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival as the coach of CLEMSON.
The average score was CLEMSON 22.1, OPPONENT 13.7.
--DABO SWINNEY is 11-1 OVER (+9.9 Units) the 1rst half total versus poor rushing teams - averaging <=120 rushing yards/game as the coach of CLEMSON.
The average score was CLEMSON 19.6, OPPONENT 18.6.
--DAVE CLAWSON is 15-2 UNDER (+12.8 Units) in home games after playing a conference game in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was CLAWSON 22.4, OPPONENT 22.4.
--DAVE CLAWSON is 9-0 UNDER (+9.0 Units) in home games after having lost 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was CLAWSON 13.7, OPPONENT 28.4.
--DAVE CLAWSON is 8-0 UNDER (+8.0 Units) in home games off a loss against a conference rival in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was CLAWSON 14.1, OPPONENT 29.5.
--DAVE CLAWSON is 12-2 UNDER (+9.8 Units) in home games versus good passing teams with a completion percentage of 58% or better in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was CLAWSON 23.7, OPPONENT 25.6.
--DAVE CLAWSON is 13-2 UNDER (+10.8 Units) in home games in the second half of the season in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was CLAWSON 21.3, OPPONENT 24.1.
--DAVE CLAWSON is 8-0 OVER (+8.0 Units) the 1rst half total after gaining 40 or less rushing yards last game in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was CLAWSON 6.0, OPPONENT 23.3.
--DAVE CLAWSON is 9-0 OVER (+9.0 Units) the 1rst half total after a loss by 6 or less points in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was CLAWSON 12.8, OPPONENT 21.1.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--WAKE FOREST is 12-10 against the spread versus CLEMSON since 1992.
--CLEMSON is 16-6 straight up against WAKE FOREST since 1992.
--7 of 13 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1992.
--WAKE FOREST is 12-9 versus the first half line when playing against CLEMSON since 1992.
--8 of 13 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.
--Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.
--Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
--Favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
--Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Wake Forest.
•RECENT TRENDS
--CLEM is 8-3 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
--CLEM is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games on fieldturf.
--Under is 11-4 in CLEM last 15 games in November.
--WAKE is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 Thursday games.
--WAKE is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games in November.
--Under is 13-3 in WAKE last 16 games in November.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:
--In past games, the favorite covered the spread 9 times, while the underdog covered the spread 8 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 17 times, while the underdog won straight up 0 times. 15 games went under the total, while 4 games went over the total. *EDGE against the total =UNDER.
--In past games, the favorite covered first half line 8 times, while the underdog covered first half line 8 times. *No EDGE. 12 games went under first half total, while 7 games went over first half total. *No EDGE.
•SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS: Play Over - All teams where the first half total is 18 to 21 points (WAKE FOREST) - slow starting offensive team - scoring 8 or less PPG in the first half, after trailing their last 3 games by 10+ points at the half.
(87-35 over the last 10 seasons.) (71.3%, +48.5 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 26.3
The average first half score in these games was: Team 9.5, Opponent 20 (Total first half points scored = 29.5)
The situation's record this season is: (4-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (17-7).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (35-14).
Since 1992 the situation's record is: (92-45).
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