STATSYSTEMS SPORTS MLB REPORT
SUNDAY, AUGUST 3rd 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Sunday, 8/3/14 MLB Information *****
(ALL RESULTS VS. ML) - Against The Money-Line - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2014 Major League Baseball season we will analyze all of your daily baseball action, featuring on hot and cold pitchers, hot and cold teams, over/unders and home plate umpire trends. We will also highlight some of our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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MLB Betting News and Notes - Week #18
•Thome Officially Retiring With Indians: The Cleveland Indians announced on Saturday that Jim Thome, the club's all-time home run leader, will sign an honorary contract with the team and officially retire. The Indians unveiled Thome's statue earlier Saturday in Heritage Park, in center field at Progressive Field. The statue features Thome in his signature pose, with him pointing to center field with his bat. The Indians also placed a marker in center field, at the spot where his 511-foot homer -- the longest in the ballpark's history -- landed on July 3, 1999.
Thome spent 12 of his 22-year major-league career with the Indians. His 337 home runs are the most in franchise history. He hit 30 or more homers seven times in that span -- including 40 or more three times -- and drove in 100 or more runs six times. Thome also is the club's all-time walks leader with 1,008. Thome ranks in the Indians' all-time top 10 in several offensive categories including RBIs, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, OPS, runs and doubles.
As an Indian, Thome made three All-Star teams and finished in the top 10 in MVP voting three times. Overall, Thome batted .276 with a .402 on-base percentage. His 612 home runs ranks seventh all-time. He also ranks seventh with 1,747 walks. Thome last played in 2012. He batted .257 with a .348 on-base percentage, eight home runs and 25 RBIs in 58 games with the Philadelphia Phillies and Baltimore Orioles.
•Dodgers LHP Maholm Has Torn ACL: Los Angeles Dodgers announced Saturday that left-hander Paul Maholm has a torn ACL in his right knee. Maholm was injured while covering first base in the seventh inning of Friday night's 8-2 loss to the Chicago Cubs. An MRI revealed the injury. The Dodgers announced that he will visit Dr. Neal ElAttrache and decide on treatment, including surgery. Maholm, who has mostly pitched in relief this season, would have been an option to replace struggling right-hander Dan Haren in the rotation. Haren allowed six earned runs in 4 1/3 innings Friday and has a 10.03 ERA since July 1. In 30 appearances (eight starts), Maholm is 1-5 with a 4.84 ERA this year. The Dodgers also lost outfielder Yasiel Puig (mild left hamstring strain) and first baseman Adrian Gonzalez (right knee bruise) to baserunning injuries Friday. Manager Don Mattingly said both players are day to day.
•Arizona's Goldschmidt Hits DL With Broken Hand: The Arizona Diamondbacks placed All-Star first baseman Paul Goldschmidt on the 15-day disabled list with a broken left hand Saturday. Goldschmidt was injured Friday night when he was hit by a pitch from the Pittsburgh Pirates' Ernesto Frieri. There is no timetable for his return. Goldschmidt, 26, was having a great follow-up season to his National League MVP runner-up performance in 2013. He is hitting .300 with 19 homers and 69 RBIs, and he leads the majors with 39 doubles and 75 runs scored. Arizona recalled outfielder Alfredo Marte from Triple-A Reno to replace Goldschmidt on the roster.
•Shane Victorino Back On DL: Red Sox manager John Farrell did not rule out a lengthy shutdown or possible surgery for right fielder Shane Victorino, who on Friday was placed on the 15-day disabled list for the third time this season because of lower back and hamstring issues. The Red Sox did not rule out surgery for Shane Victorino who was put on the disabled list for the third time this season with lower back and hamstring issues. The MRI results indicated that Victorino could face back surgery, so he will travel to Los Angeles to visit with specialist Dr. Robert Watkins for a second opinion. Then it will be determined whether Victorino will need surgery or just rehab.
Victorino has battled back and hamstring injuries the last couple of years, and this season he's been limited to 30 games. He recently returned to the lineup, but was removed from Wednesday's game when he felt a sharp pain in his back. Victorino already had missed 71 of the team's first 108 games. The 33-year-old Gold Glove defender has only started 28 games. He has posted a .268/.303/.382 slash line in limited action, hitting two home runs and stealing two bases.
•Michael Cuddyer, Rockies Outfielder, Making More Progress: Michael Cuddyer hung out around the batting cage Friday at Comerica Park, just itching to jump in and take his hacks. That will have to wait a few more days. The Rockies are being cautious as Cuddyer recovers from a broken left shoulder socket. But last year's National League batting champion did hit balls off the tee Thursday and participated in almost all of the team's pregame activities. "It's going well. I feel good," Cuddyer said. "I did everything except step into the cage. I ran, took flyballs and groundballs." He anticipates being ready for a minor-league rehab assignment in a week to 10 days.
"If I have no setbacks, once I finally do take BP, that's what I'm hoping for," he said. Why is Cuddyer, 35, so eager to get back on the field this season? "One, I love playing, that's first and foremost," he said. "Two, it's what I'm paid to do. It's my job, it's what the owner is paying me a lot of money to do. You are obligated to come back and try to play." Cuddyer also wants to prove to himself that he is healthy, and also show other teams the same thing. His three-year, $31.5 million deal with Colorado ends after this season and he will become a free agent.
"You never want to go into an offseason on an injury, and that's true whether I was a free agent or not a free agent," Cuddyer said. "You never want that hanging over your head during the offseason if you can help it." The Rockies have a surplus of talented young outfielders, so there are no guarantees they will attempt to re-sign Cuddyer. Cuddyer was hitting .317 with five home runs and 16 RBIs before injuring his shoulder June 5 while diving for a ball as he played third base.
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Betting Notes - Sunday
National League
•Giants-Mets 1:10 PM
--Bumgarner is 3-1, 3.70 in his last four starts.
--Mets won last three Colon starts (2-0, 3.15).
--San Francisco lost seven of its last nine games.
--Mets won ten of their last thirteen home games.
--Four of last five Colon home starts went over the total.
•Reds-Marlins - 1:10 PM
--Leake is 1-2, 4.05 in his last four starts.
--Turner is 2-0, 2.53 in his last two starts.
--Cincinnati lost ten of its last twelve road games.
--Marlins lost three of their last four games.
--Under is 8-0-2 in last ten Cincinnati road games.
•Phillies-Nationals - 1:35 PM
--Hamels is 4-0, 1.72 in his last five starts.
--Strasburg is 0-3, 3.66 in his last five starts.
--Phillies are 7-5 in their last twelve road games.
--Washington lost four of its last six games.
--Five of last six Hamels starts stayed under the total.
•Brewers-Cardinals - 2:15 PM
--Garza is 1-0, 1.20 in his last couple starts.
--Lackey was 2-1, 2.70 in his last three starts for Boston.
--Milwaukee lost five of last seven road games.
--Cardinals lost seven of their last eleven games.
--Nine of last twelve Milwaukee games stayed under the total.
•Cubs-Dodgers - 4:10 PM
--Jackson is 0-4, 7.39 in his last seven starts.
--Burkett is 1-1, 6.50 in his last four starts.
--Cubs lost ten of their last twelve road games.
--Dodgers won 16 of its last 22 home games.
--Eight of last eleven Jackson starts went over total.
•Pirates-Diamondbacks - 4:10 PM
--Pirates won last three Liriano starts (2-0, 1.42).
--Cahill is 0-6, 8.82 in seven starts this season.
--Pirates won five of their last seven games.
--Arizona lost three of its last four home games.
--Four of last five Cahill starts went over total.
•Braves-Padres - 4:10 PM
--Harang is 4-0, 2.87 in his last seven starts.
--Ross is 3-0, 0.95 in his last three starts.
--Atlanta lost nine of its last twelve road games.
--San Diego won six of its last seven home games.
--Five of last seven Harang starts stayed under total.
American League
•Rangers-Indians - 1:05 PM
--Darvish is 2-1, 2.50 in his last three starts; 43-67 Rangers are 13-7 in Darvish starts, 30-60 in all other games.
--Bauer is 1-2, 6.06 in his last three starts.
--Rangers lost ten of their last fourteen games.
--Cleveland won three of its last four games.
--Five of last seven Darvish starts stayed under the total.
•Mariners-Orioles - 1:35 PM
--Iwakuma is 4-1, 2.32 in his last six starts.
--Tillman is 0-1, 4.14 in his last six starts.
--Seattle is 1-9 in game following its last ten wins.
--Baltimore won eight of its last twelve games.
--13 of last 16 Seattle games stayed under the total.
•Angels-Rays - 1:40 PM
--Weaver is 4-0, 3.51 in his last eight starts.
--Odorizzi is 3-0, 2.79 in his last three starts.
--Angels won 18 of their last 26 games.
--Tampa Bay won 10 of 13 games since All-Star break.
--Under is 12-5-1 in last eighteen Angel games.
•Twins-White Sox - 2:10 PM
--Gibson is 1-3, 6.64 in his last four starts.
--Quintana is 3-0, 1.74 in his last seven starts.
--Minnesota lost ten of its last fifteen games.
--White Sox won six of their last nine games.
--Under is 7-1 in last eight Quintana starts.
•Blue Jays-Astros - 2:10 PM
--Stroman is 3-0, 0.43 in his last three starts.
--Feldman is 0-3, 6.20 in his last four starts.
--Blue Jays won eleven of their last fifteen games.
--Astros lost nine of their last fourteen home games.
--Over is 19-9 in last 28 Houston games.
•Royals-Athletics - 4:05 PM
--Shields is 1-2, 2.48 in his last five starts.
--Kazmir is 3-0, 1.72 in his last five starts.
--Royals won eight of their last eleven games.
--Oakland is 16-4 in its last twenty home games.
--Six of last seven Kansas City road games stayed under the total.
•Yankees-Red Sox - 8:05 PM
--Phelps is 2-1, 3.26 in his last five starts.
--Buchholz is 0-2, 9.82 in his last couple starts.
--New York lost five of its last seven games.
--Red Sox lost nine of their last eleven games.
--Six of last eight Yankees road games stayed under.
Interleague
•Rockies-Tigers - 1:05 PM
--De La Rosa is 5-0, 3.65 in his last eight starts.
--Sanchez is 1-2, 6.75 in his last three starts.
--Colorado lost 17 of its last 19 road games.
--Tigers won three of their last four games.
--Under is 3-0-1 in last four de la Rosa starts.
•Teams' Record When This Starting Pitcher Starts
-- Bumgarner 13-10; Colon 12-9
-- Leake 9-13; Turner 6-5
-- Hamels 9-10; Strasburg 11-12
-- Garza 11-11; Lackey 12-9/0-0
-- Jackson 7-15; Beckett 9-10
-- Liriano 10-8; Cahill 1-6
-- Harang 11-10; Ross 11-12
-- Darvish 13-7; Bauer 7-8
-- Iwakuma 10-7; Tillman 14-9
-- Weaver 14-9; Odorizzi 9-12
-- Gibson 9-11; Quintana 9-13
-- Stroman 6-5; Feldman 6-13
-- Shields 13-10; Kazmir 16-5
-- Phelps 5-11; Buchholz 7-10
-- De La Rosa 13-7; Sanchez 10-9
•Umpires Trends
-- SF-NY-- Underdogs are 7-5 in last dozen Reyburn games.
-- Cin-Mia-- Under is 4-1-1 in last six Wegner games.
-- Phil-Wsh-- Five of last six Cooper games stayed under.
-- Mil-StL--- Seven of last ten Little games stayed under.
-- Cubs-LA-- Home team won 15 of 19 Rackley games.
-- Pitt-Az-- Six of last seven Hickox games stayed under.
-- Atl-SD-- Four of last five Knight games stayed under.
-- Tex-Clev-- Favorites won last four Eddings games.
-- Sea-Balt--- Five of last seven Timmons games went over.
-- LA-TB-- Eight of last ten Carapazza games stayed under.
-- Min-Chi-- Last twelve Danley games stayed under.
-- Tor-Hst-- Last six Meals games went over the total.
-- KC-A's-- Under is 8-2-1 in last ten Wendelstedt games.
-- NY-Bos-- Over is 8-1-1 in last ten Schrieber games.
-- Col-Det-- 11 of last 13 BWelke games stayed under.
•Incredible Stat of the Day
Oakland’s Scott Kazmir is 14-3 in his day team starts (82.3%) the last two seasons, including a perfect 7-0 this year. The left-hander is 3-0 over his last five assignments and has allowed just five earned runs in 31 1/3 innings during the stretch. He defeated Texas in his last outing when he gave up two runs and seven hits over five innings. Kazmir is 4-5 with a 5.15 ERA in 15 career starts against Kansas City.
Diamond Trends - Sunday
•LA ANGELS are 25-5 (+21.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 46% to 49%) over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was LA ANGELS 5.5, OPPONENT 3.4.
•MILWAUKEE is 48-20 UNDER (+25.5 Units) versus an National League team with a batting average of .250 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MILWAUKEE 3.7, OPPONENT 3.6.
•BALTIMORE is 22-5 (+17.8 Units) against the run line versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game in the second half of the season this season.
The average score was BALTIMORE 4.1, OPPONENT 3.1.
•COLE HAMELS is 11-2 (+10.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was HAMELS 3.4, OPPONENT 2.4.
•CLAY BUCHHOLZ is 10-0 OVER (+10.3 Units) when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 54%) in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was BUCHHOLZ 5.3, OPPONENT 5.7.
•HISASHI IWAKUMA is 21-5 (+17.9 Units) against the run line versus an American League team with an on base percentage .330 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was IWAKUMA 4.4, OPPONENT 2.5.
Situational Analysis of The Day
•Play Against - Road underdogs with a money line of +150 or more (MINNESOTA) - below average hitting team (AVG <=.265) against an excellent starting pitcher (ERA <=3.20) - American League, with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP <= 1.100 over his last 10 games.
(51-15 over the last 5 seasons.) (77.3%, +34.7 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -113.3
The average score in these games was: Team 5, Opponent 3.2 (Average run differential = +1.7)
The situation's record this season is: (10-4, +6.1 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (25-9, +14.7 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (61-24, +32.7 units).
•Play On - Road underdogs against a 1.5 run line. (Money Line =-190 to -135) (ATLANTA) - with a team batting average of .245 or worse on the season (National League) against opponent with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 3.00 over his last 10 games.
(73-18 since 1997.) (80.2%, +43.7 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (42-49)
The average run line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 1.5, money line price: -163
The average score in these games was: Team 4.2, Opponent 3.6 (Average run differential = +0.5)
The number of games in which this system covered the run line by 1 or more runs was 42 (46.2% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (14-5, +5.9 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (36-11, +17.7 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (54-16, +28.1 units).
•Play Over - All teams where the total is 7 or less (SAN DIEGO) - horrible National League offensive team - scoring <=3.3 runs/game on the season against opponent terrible offensive team - scoring <=3.8 runs/game on the season (NL).
(57-20 since 1997.) (74.0%, +37.2 units. Rating = 4*)
The average total posted in these games was: 6.7, Money Line=+100.4
The average score in these games was: Team 4.3, Opponent 4.3 (Total runs scored = 8.6)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 1 or more runs was 42 (51.9% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (12-5, +7.3 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (45-15, +30.2 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (54-17, +37.2 units).
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