STATSYSTEMS SPORTS MLB REPORT
SUNDAY, JULY 20th 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Sunday, 7/20/14 MLB Information *****
(ALL RESULTS VS. ML) - Against The Money-Line - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2014 Major League Baseball season we will analyze all of your daily baseball action, featuring on hot and cold pitchers, hot and cold teams, over/unders and home plate umpire trends. We will also highlight some of our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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MLB Betting News and Notes - Week #16
•Red Sox Activate Shane Victorino From Disabled List: Shane Victorino has been activated from the 15-day disabled list and will bat sixth and play right field in his return against the Royals. The Red Sox have optioned Mookie Betts back to Triple-A Pawtucket in a corresponding roster move. Victorino hasn’t played in the majors since he aggravated a right hamstring strain on May 23. The 33-year-old had multiple setbacks during his rehab, including an issue with his back, but he played three games with Class A Lowell prior to the All-Star break and back-to-back games with Triple-A Pawtucket on Thursday and Friday.
Limited to just 21 games this season, Victorino is batting just .242/.276/.352 with one home run, 10 RBI, and two stolen bases. Betts is the odd-man out now that Victorino is healthy. The 21-year-old batted .235 (8-for-34) with one home run and two doubles in his first taste of the majors and is better off playing everyday in Triple-A for now. He doesn’t figure to be down in the minors for long, especially if the Red Sox move players like Jonny Gomes and Stephen Drew before the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline.
•Prices Soar For Derek Jeter Ceremony: The New York Yankees' surprise announcement on Friday that the team would officially honor its retiring captain Derek Jeter on Sept. 7 sent ticket prices for that game soaring on the resale market. The average list price for the home game in the Bronx against the Kansas City Royals went from $139.24 before the announcement to $497.98 by Saturday, according to ticket resale market aggregator TiqIQ. The price of the cheapest seat in the building jumped by more than 1,200 percent, from $16 to $211. Bleacher seats with a face value of $23 can't be found for under $223, while outfield field box seats that carry a face value of $175 can't be had for under $575 anymore.
"The Yankees have been known to pick somewhat random dates to honor their retiring stars," said TiqIQ spokesman Chris Matkovich, pointing out that Mariano Rivera was honored last season on the Sunday during the final homestand. "With dates being unknown, this has led to huge price spikes directly after the announcement of his retirement and now this ceremony. But it has also given the average fan the ability to buy a change to get tickets to a marquee event at face value."
The Yankees haven't announced the schedule of events, but did say that fans attending the Sept. 7 game will receive a limited edition Jeter coin. One of the biggest beneficiaries of Jeter's retirement year have been ticket brokers in Boston, where the Yankees will play their final series of the regular season from Sept. 26-28. When Jeter announced his retirement intentions in February, tickets to his very last game at Fenway Park soared. On StubHub, the cheapest ticket went from $26 to $328 within a matter of hours. In the five months since, prices have come down a bit. The cheapest ticket on StubHub to the last regular-season game Jeter might play is now $161.
•CC Relieved To Avoid Microfracture: Fearful his career could be in jeopardy, CC Sabathia had trouble sleeping as he awaited word if he needed microfracture surgery or a less serious arthroscopic procedure on his ailing right knee. Sabathia will have season-ending arthroscopic surgery this Wednesday, but his doctors told him it should allow him to return for spring training. "I was very concerned," said Sabathia, who turns 34 on Monday. Sabathia finished this season 3-4 with a 5.28 ERA. He has been plagued by a drastic loss in velocity on his fastball. On Wednesday, Los Angeles Dodgers team doctor Neal ElAttrache will perform the surgery. Sabathia said he will have six to eight weeks of recovery time and then can begin to prepare for 2015. The procedure should clean up the debris in the knee, but it won't cure Sabathia forever.
•Red Sox Getting 'Most Trade Inquiry Calls' On Andrew Miller: With the Boston Red Sox languishing at the bottom of the AL East standings and watching their playoff hopes growing slimmer by the day, the rest of baseball is naturally inquiring after some vets the Sox might be willing to deal at the trade deadline. According to MLB Network's Peter Gammons, one player in particular is attracting a lot of interest. We're assuming, of course, that he meant BoSox, and not Botox. Otherwise he's likely talking about a different Andrew Miller. In any event, the Red Sox' Andrew Miller, a hulking, 6-foot-7, hard-throwing lefty reliever, would be a tremendous addition for any team with playoff aspirations.
In 37 innings of work this season, Miller has posted a 2.19 ERA, a 1.46 FIP, and 0.973 WHIP, while striking out an obscene 40 percent of batters he's faced and holding left-handed hitters to a .167/.224/.241 line. Miller will be a free agent after this season, so teams may be wary about giving up too much to get him. But given what the Angels just gave up to bolster the back of their bullpen with Huston Street, it's probably safe to expect someone to dip into the prospect pool for Miller, assuming the Red Sox are in fact willing to move him.
•Cards To Rest Wainwright, Move Miller To 'Pen: With the flexibility to reset their rotation after the All-Star break, the Cardinals will give ace Adam Wainwright an extended period of rest and move Shelby Miller to the bullpen for an undetermined period while employing a four-man rotation. The schedule sets up to where the Cardinals could get around needing a fifth starter until August, though manager Mike Matheny would not speculate whether the club would keep Miller in the bullpen for that long. The team, which just had a four-day break, has an off-day scheduled after each of its next three series. The Cardinals entered the season planning to work in rest for Miller, who is in his second full season as a Major League starter. This presented the most obvious opportunity to do that.
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Betting Notes - Sunday
National League
•Giants-Marlins - 1:10 PM
--Lincecum is 4-0, 0.30 in his last four starts.
--Hand is 0-2, 6.23 in five starts this season.
--Giants won four of their last five games.
--Miami lost seven of its last eight games.
--15 of last 22 Marlin games went over the total.
•Brewers-Nationals - 1:35 PM
--Gallardo is 3-2 with a 3.00 ERA on the road this season.
--Gonzalez is 2-0 with a 1.89 ERA against Milwaukee.
--Milwaukee lost 12 of its last 15 games.
--Washington won 11 of its last 16 games.
--Six of last eight Brewer games went over the total.
•Rockies-Pirates - 1:35 PM
--Coloroad lost last six Matzek starts (0-4, 5.45).
--Locke is 2-0, 2.86 in his last six starts.
--Rockies lost 11 of their last 12 road games.
--Pittsburgh is 11-2 in last thirteen home games.
--Under is 8-4 in Pittsburgh's last 12 home games.
•Phillies-Braves - 1:35 PM
--Kendrick is 1-3, 6.40 in his last five starts.
--Wood is 0-1, 4.92 in his last three starts.
--Phillies lost three of their last four games.
--Atlanta won six of its last eight home games.
--Nine of last thirteen Philly games went over the total.
•Mets-Padres - 4:10 PM
--Wheeler is 1-0, 1.40 in his last three starts.
--Despaigne is 2-1, 1.35 in four starts this season.
--Mets won eight of their last ten games.
--San Diego lost eight of its last eleven games.
--17 of last 23 San Diego games stayed under.
•Cubs-Diamondbacks - 4:10 PM
--Arrieta is 4-0, 1.30 in his last seven starts.
--Collmenter is 2-1, 3.09 in his last four starts.
--Cubs lost ten of their last twelve games.
--Arizona won four of its last five home games.
--Over is 10-3-1 in last fourteen Cub games.
•Dodgers-Cardinals - 8:05 PM
--Kershaw is 8-0, 0.74 in his last eight starts.
--Martinez is 2-1, 4.81 in his last five starts.
--Dodgers lost five of their last six road games.
--St Louis won seven of its last nine games.
--Six of last seven Dodger games stayed under the total.
American League
•Rangers-Blue Jays - 1:05 PM
--Tepesch is 1-3, 4.81 in his last four starts.
--Buehrle is 0-5, 3.74 in his last seven starts.
--Rangers lost 24 of their last 29 games.
--Toronto lost eight of its last eleven games.
--Four of last five Tepesch starts stayed under.
•Indians-Tigers - 1:05 PM
--Tomlin is 1-4, 6.63 in his last six starts.
--Smyly is 1-2, 8.16 in his last three starts.
--Indians won nine of their last twelve games.
--Detroit lost its last four games.
--Over is 7-2-1 in last ten Detroit home games.
•Royals-Red Sox - 1:35 PM
--Vemtura is 4-2, 3.05 in his last seven starts.
--Red Sox won last six Lester starts (3-0, 2.00).
--Royals lost eight of their last eleven games.
--Boston won six of its last seven games.
--Seven of last ten Kansas City games stayed under.
•Rays-Twins - 2:10 PM
--Archer is 1-1, 4.61 in his last four starts.
--Correia is 1--2, 2.37 in his last three starts.
--Tampa Bay won ten of its last eleven road games.
--Twins lost six of their last seven home games.
--Eight of last twelve Tampa Bay games went over total.
•Astros-White Sox - 2:10 PM
--Cosart is 5-1, 3.72 in his last six starts.
--Danks is 2-0, 2.23 in his last four starts.
--Astros lost 12 of their last 16 road games.
--White Sox won five of their last six home games.
--Seven of last eleven Houston games went over the total.
•Mariners-Angels - 3:35 PM
--Young is 3-2, 2.13 in his last six starts.
--Skaggs is 1-4, 5.36 in his last six starts.
--Seattle won eight of its last eleven road games.
--Angels won 13 of their last 16 games.
--Under is 10-2-1 in last thirteen Mariner games.
•Orioles-Athletics - 4:05 PM
--Gausman is 4-1, 2.76 in his last six starts.
--Gray is 4-0, 2.67 in his last five starts.
--Baltimore won six of its last eight road games.
--A's won 12 of their last 14 home games.
--Under is 7-3-3 in last thirteen Oakland games.
Interleague
•Reds-Yankees - 1:05 PM
--Cueto is 4-1, 3.28 in his last five starts.
--Kuroda is 2-1, 3.55 in his last eight starts.
--Cincinnati lost three of its last four games.
--Yankees won three of its last four games.
--Under is 7-2-2 in last eleven New York home games.
•Teams' Record When This Starting Pitcher Starts
-- Lincecum 13-6; Hand 1-4
-- Gallardo 9-10; Gonzalez 9-5
-- Matzek 1-6; Locke 5-3
-- Kendrick 8-10; Wood 4-7
-- Wheeler 8-11; Despaigne 2-2
-- Arrieta 9-4; Collmenter 10-6
-- Kershaw 11-3; Martinez 5-1
-- Tepesch 4-6; Buehrle 13-6
-- Tomlin 5-7; Smyly 5-10
-- Ventura 8-9; Lester 12-7
-- Archer 9-10; Correia 6-13
-- Cosart 10-8; Danks 9-10
-- Young 10-7; Skaggs 8-6
-- Gausman 5-2; Gray 13-6
-- Cueto 12-8; Kuroda 8-11
•Umpires Trends
-- SF-Mia-- Six of eight Randazzo games stayed under.
-- Mil-Wsh-- Over is 5-0-2 in Campos games this year.
-- Col-Pitt-- Four of last five Hudson games stayed under.
-- Phil-Atl-- Favorites won 11 of last 12 Davis games.
-- NY-SD-- Underdogs are 8-6 in Guccione games this year.
-- Cubs-Az-- Both Scheurwater games stayed under total.
-- LA-StL-- Five of last six Hickox games stayed under.
-- Tex-Tor-- Favorites won 12 of last 14 Hoye games.
-- Cle-Det-- Three of last four Carlson games went over.
-- KC-Bos-- Last nine Danley games stayed under total.
-- TB-Min-- Six of last seven Morales games went over.
-- Hst-Chi-- Under is 7-4 in Pattillo games this season.
-- Sea-LA-- Over is 6-0-1 in last seven Schrieber games.
-- Balt-A's-- Five of last seven Baker games stayed under.
-- Cin-NY-- Under is 6-3-2 in last eleven Hernandez games.
•Incredible Stat of the Day
Clayton Kershaw has 80 strikeouts in 61 innings while walking just six batters during his eight-game winning streak. He is 6-1 with a 1.91 ERA in seven road starts and has 16 scoreless frames over his last two outings away from home. The 26-year-old fanned 13 in seven scoreless frames versus St. Louis at home on June 29, improving to 5-5 with a 3.43 ERA in 13 career starts against the Cardinals.
Diamond Trends - Sunday
•SEATTLE is 13-2 (+16.5 Units) against the money line in road games versus a starting pitcher with good control (less than 1.75 BB's/start) this season.
The average score was SEATTLE 5.1, OPPONENT 3.5.
•LA ANGELS are 16-1 UNDER (+14.9 Units) in home games when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 54%) in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was LA ANGELS 2.8, OPPONENT 2.8.
•TEXAS is 2-13 (-14.4 Units) against the run line versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game in the second half of the season this season.
The average score was TEXAS 3.9, OPPONENT 7.0.
•GIO GONZALEZ is 18-3 (+14.4 Units) against the money line against National League Central opponents over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was GONZALEZ 6.0, OPPONENT 2.7.
•CHRIS YOUNG is 12-1 UNDER (+11.2 Units) versus an American League team with an on base percentage .330 or worse this season.
The average score was YOUNG 2.7, OPPONENT 2.6.
•CLAYTON KERSHAW is 10-0 (+10.7 Units) against the run line in road games versus National League teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was KERSHAW 5.7, OPPONENT 1.2.
Situation Analysis of The Day
•Play Against - Road underdogs with a money line of +150 or more (BALTIMORE) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 or better on the season (American League) against opponent with a starting pitcher whose throws more than 6.5 innings per start.
(64-11 over the last 5 seasons.) (85.3%, +43.2 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -189.5
The average score in these games was: Team 5.2, Opponent 2.7 (Average run differential = +2.6)
The situation's record this season is: (10-4, +1.7 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (33-8, +17.6 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (131-52, +35 units).
•Play Against - Road teams against a run line. (+1.5, -130) to (-1.5, +160) (SAN FRANCISCO) - below average hitting team (AVG <=.255) against a poor starting pitcher (ERA>=5.70) - National League, ice cold hitting team - batting .225 or worse over their last 15 games.
(30-12 since 1997.) (71.4%, +25.5 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (31-11)
The average run line posted in these games was: Team favored by 0.2, money line price: +125
The average score in these games was: Team 5.8, Opponent 4.4 (Average run differential = +1.3)
The number of games in which this system covered the run line by 1 or more runs was 26 (61.9% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (2-1, +1.7 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (8-1, +10.2 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (13-2, +16.1 units).
•Play Under - All teams where the total is 8 to 8.5 (CHICAGO CUBS) - below average National League hitting team (AVG <=.255) against a team with a good bullpen (ERA <=3.75), starting a over rested pitcher who is working on 7 or more days rest.
(62-25 over the last 5 seasons.) (71.3%, +33.4 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 8.2, Money Line=-114.4
The average score in these games was: Team 3.7, Opponent 3.4 (Total runs scored = 7.1)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 1 or more runs was 51 (58.6% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (4-2, +1.9 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (44-15, +26.8 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (111-69, +32.7 units).
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w-thumbs!^
