STATSYSTEMS SPORTS MLB REPORT
SUNDAY, MAY 18th 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Sunday, 5/18/14 MLB Information *****
(ALL RESULTS VS. ML) - Against The Money-Line - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2014 Major League Baseball season we will analyze all of your daily baseball action, featuring on hot and cold pitchers, hot and cold teams, over/unders and home plate umpire trends. We will also highlight some of our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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MLB Betting News and Notes - Week #7
•Hernandez Unhittable Against The Twins: Felix Hernandez has enjoyed seeing the Minnesota Twins over his career. During his last three starts against the Twins Hernandez has two complete games, 25 strikeouts and has only surrendered one run. Bettors have capitalized on this trend, as the Mariners and Twins have gone under in six of the past seven when Hernandez starts.
•Kuroda Cashing In For Under Bettors: When Hiroki Kuroda takes the mound for the New York Yankees, bettors take notice. In Kuroda’s last 72 starts, he has an over/under record of 21-48-3. That means that Kuroda has paid out on the under at a 66.7 percent rate. Sunday has also been a good day for Kuroda and under plays, as he has gone under in all seven of his last Sunday starts.
•Fielder Sits Out With Neck Problem: Texas Rangers first baseman Prince Fielder has a herniated disk in his neck that kept him out of the starting lineup on Saturday night for a game against the Toronto Blue Jays. Fielder's absence ended his streak of 547 consecutive games played. He had an injection on Saturday morning that the Rangers hope will help him return to the lineup by Tuesday. Bothered by a stiff neck for the past three to four weeks, Fielder took anti-inflammatory medication to help relieve the pain, but when the discomfort persisted, he visited Dr. Drew Dossett and received the injection.
The hope is that the injection will help the problem and expedite Fielder's return. "It sounds like he's probably been dealing with it more than just this year," Rangers general manager Jon Daniels said. "It's gotten to a point where it was an issue for him." In his first year with the Rangers after an offseason trade with the Detroit Tigers, the power-hitting Fielder has struggled at the plate, batting .247 with three home runs and 16 RBIs. The Rangers have been hit hard by injuries this season. Pitchers Martin Perez and Matt Harrison are among 13 players on the disabled list. Perez is scheduled to undergo Tommy John reconstructive elbow ligament surgery on Monday.
•New York Yankees Might Reconsider Signing Stephen Drew: The New York Yankees have tough situations on their hands with some of their most high-profile players. C.C. Sabathia is dealing with a knee injury and has looked more like a back-of-the-rotation pitcher when he has been on the mound. Alex Rodriguez, while not an immediate problem, is still looming. And then there is Derek Jeter, who is enjoying his farewell tour but is hitting only marginally well (.251/.331/.308) and is almost disastrously bad on defense.
When it comes to that last problem, the Yankees might be open to taking another look at signing free agent Stephen Drew, but only after the MLB Amateur Draft passes in June so that it does not cost them a draft pick. One major league source indicated the Yankees may change their thinking on whether to sign Stephen Drew (owner Hal Steinbrenner had said the Yankees didn’t need Drew) if they find Jeter can’t endure a full season at shortstop. The Yankees, according to the source, don’t want the Red Sox to get a draft pick, so they’d wait at least through the June draft so there would be no compensation.”
If Jeter has shown anything in the twilight of his career it’s that he can still be productive on offense. His statistics at the plate this year should improve. On defense, though, he has already cost the Yankees -3 DRS (defensive runs saved, according to FanGraphs). Might he benefit offensively from less time in the field and more days as designated hitter? How much better would the Yankees be with a better defender at shortstop? Those are the questions New York’s front office will have to weigh as they look at whether or not to pursue Drew.
Betting Notes - Sunday
•Hot Pitchers
-- Zimmerman is 1-0, 2.81 in his last three starts.
-- Estrada is 2-0, 3.41 in his last five starts.
-- Nicasio is 2-1, 2.50 in his last three starts.
-- Dodgers won six of eight Haren starts (5-1, 4.09).
-- Vogelsong is 1-1, 2.05 in his last four starts.
-- Chavez is 2-1, 2.61 in his last three starts.
-- Jimenez is 2-0, 0.46 in his last three starts. Shields is 2-0, 0.64 in last two.
-- Dickey is 3-0, 4.01 in his last four starts.
-- Price is 1-1, 2.57 in his last three starts. Shoemaker won his first start, allowing two runs in five IP.
-- Peavy is 3-0, 2.17 in his last four starts.
•Cold Pitchers
-- Lee is 0-2, 5.81 in his last four starts. Cingrani was 2-2, 3.31 in six starts before going on the DL.
-- Wheeler is 0-1, 7.54 in his last three starts.
-- Floyd is 0-1, 3.38 in his first two starts for Atlanta. Garcia's last start was a year ago, before shoulder surgery- he had an 8.49 RA in his last two starts.
-- Wood is 2-2, 8.34 in his last four starts.
-- Roach is making first MLB start; he has a 2.57 ERA in 12 relief appearances, covering 21 innings.
-- Turner is 0-1, 7.17 in four starts this season.
-- Collmenter is 0-0, 6.62 in his last three starts.
-- Masterson is 2-2, 5.00 in his last four starts.
-- Hernandez is 1-1, 5.81 in his last five starts. Nolasco is 0-1, 3.86 in his last three starts.
-- Peacock is 0-3, 5.65 in five starts this season. Danks is 1-3, 7.15 in his last four starts.
-- Martinez is 0-0, 5.73 in two starts this season.
-- Sanchez was 0-2, 4.43 before going on the DL.
-- Kuroda is 0-2, 6.60 in his last five starts. Nuno is 1-1, 7.54 in his last three starts. Morton is 0-5, 5.17 in his last six starts. Cole is 1-1, 4.82 in last three starts.
•Totals
-- Last four Milwaukee games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 5-2-2 in last nine Washington home games.
-- Nine of last eleven Cincinnati games stayed under.
-- Under is 10-2-2 in last fourteen Atlanta games. Over is 6-1-2 in Cardinals' last nine games.
-- 16 of last 20 San Diego road games stayed under.
-- Five of last seven Arizona games stayed under; six of last seven Dodger games went over the total.
-- Seven of last eight Miami games went over the total.
-- Over is 6-1-2 in last nine Cleveland games.
-- Under is 10-3 in Boston's last thirteen games.
-- Seven of last nine Texas games stayed under.
-- Under is 7-1-1 in Orioles' last nine road games.
-- Six of last eight Houston home games went over.
-- Seven of last ten Seattle games stayed under total.
-- Six of last eight Tampa Bay road games stayed under.
-- Under is 7-2-1 in last ten Pirate road games.
•Hot Teams
-- Brewers won five of their last seven games.
-- Cardinals won their last four games.
-- Padres won six of its last eight games.
-- Giants won 16 of their last 23 games, but lost last two. Miami won three of its last four games.
-- Athletics won eight of their last nine games.
-- Tigers won their last ten road games.
-- Orioles won eight of its last eleven road games.
-- Blue Jays won five of their last six games.
-- Twins won six of their last seven home games.
-- Astros won three of its last four games.
-- Rays won seven of last eleven on road. Los Angeles won seven of their last nine games overall.
•Cold Teams
-- Cubs lost ten of their last thirteen games.
-- Mets lost 11 of their last 16 games.
-- Phillies lost eight of last eleven games. Cincinnati lost six of last seven on road.
-- Braves lost eight of their last nine road games.
-- Rockies lost six of its last eight games.
-- Dodgers are 5-9 in last 14 games. Arizona lost 15 of its last 19 8 home games.
-- Indians lost four of their last five games.
-- Rangers lost eight of its last ten home games.
-- Royals lost six of last nine home games.
-- White Sox lost five of their last seven games.
-- Mariners lost five of their last six games.
-- Red Sox lost four of their last five games.
-- Yankees lost six of its last eight home games. Pittsburgh lost 12 of their last 15 road games.
•Umpires Trends
-- Atl-StL-- Last five Cooper games went over the total.
-- Mil-Chi-- Under is 4-1-1 in last six Rackley games.
-- NY-Wsh-- First MLB game behind plate for rookie ump Byrne
-- Cin-Phil-- Four of last five Meals games went over the total.
-- SD-Col-- Underdogs won three of last five Culbreth games.
-- LA-Az-- Under is 4-0-1 in last five Schrieber games.
-- Mia-SF-- Favorites won four of last five Danley games.
-- Chi-Hst-- Favorites won five of last six Reyburn games.
-- A's-Cle-- All three Woodring games went over the total.
-- Det-Bos-- Five of last six Barry games stayed under.
-- Balt-KC-- Last five Blaser games stayed under total.
-- Sea-Min-- Five of seven Johnson games went over total.
-- Tor-Tex-- Six of seven Iassogna games went over total.
-- TB-LAA-- Three of last four Miller games stayed under.
-- Pitt-NY-- All six Nauert games went over total. Six of nine Hoye games stayed under the total.
Diamond Trends - Sunday
•SAN FRANCISCO is 15-1 (+13.9 Units) against the money line versus a starting pitcher whose strikes out 3 or less batters per start over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 6.4, OPPONENT 2.8.
•SAN DIEGO is 17-5 UNDER (+11.3 Units) versus National League teams allowing 4.3 or less runs/game on the season this season.
The average score was SAN DIEGO 3.0, OPPONENT 3.3.
•PITTSBURGH is 17-1 (+17.3 Units) against the run line versus American League teams allowing 4.7 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 4.3, OPPONENT 2.7.
•DAN HAREN is 3-13 (-15.2 Units) against the money line versus teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was HAREN 2.9, OPPONENT 5.7.
•JUAN NICASIO is 13-2 OVER (+11.1 Units) in home games versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was NICASIO 7.5, OPPONENT 5.7.
•JAMES SHIELDS is 6-22 (-15.5 Units) against the run line in home games versus American League teams scoring 4.2 or less runs/game on the season since 1997.
The average score was SHIELDS 3.7, OPPONENT 4.0
Situation Analysis of The Day
•Play Against - Home teams with a money line of +105 to -115 (NY YANKEES) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 6.70 or worse on the season (American League) against opponent with a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start.
(34-8 over the last 5 seasons.) (81.0%, +25.5 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -106.3
The average score in these games was: Team 5.5, Opponent 3.2 (Average run differential = +2.3)
The situation's record this season is: (3-0, +3.1 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (22-4, +17.5 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (101-76, -5.2 units).
•Play On - Home teams against a run line. (+1.5, -130) to (-1.5, +160) (TEXAS) - bad offensive team (<=4.5 runs/game) against a decent starting pitcher (ERA=4.20 to 4.70) - American League, with an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game.
(58-21 since 1997.) (73.4%, +39.5 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (52-27)
The average run line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 0.7, money line price: +104
The average score in these games was: Team 5, Opponent 4.3 (Average run differential = +0.7)
The number of games in which this system covered the run line by 1 or more runs was 49 (62% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0, +0 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (17-7, +10.6 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (29-12, +18.2 units).
•Play Over - Road teams where the total is 8.5 to 10 (SAN DIEGO) - team with a poor on base percentage (<=.310) against a good starting pitcher (WHIP=1.250 to 1.300) - National League, with a good bullpen that converts on 75%+ of their save opportunities.
(30-8 over the last 5 seasons.) (78.9%, +21.8 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 7.3, Money Line=-102.5
The average score in these games was: Team 5.7, Opponent 5.2 (Total runs scored = 10.8)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 1 or more runs was 27 (77.1% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0, +0 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (19-5, +14.1 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (45-23, +20.6 units).
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w-thumbs!^
