Service Plays Sunday 4/27/14

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Please remember, this forum is not here for regular posters who cap their own games to post ther daily plays. Please use our individual sport forums to post your plays. Professional cappers (those that sell plays) must remain in the Site Promotion Forum.
Do not post any copy written info from the following services.

***Please do not post Twitter plays or forum member plays in this thread.***

Advertise with the Rx - do not post
Al Mcmordie
Allan Eastman
Doc's Sports Services
Jim Feist
Ocal Sports
Robert Ferringo
Sports Money Profit System
Strike Point Sports
Vegas Sports Informer
Vegas Winning Crew


Do not post write-ups
AJ Apollo
Alex Smart
@ntonwins
Apple Handicappers
ASA, ASA Inc’s or American Sports Analysts
ATS Consultants
ATSadv ice.com
Ben Lewis
Brandon Lang's Crew
Bruce Marshall
Chris Jordan's Crew
Dave Cokin
Dennis Hill
Dennis Macklin
Dr. Bob Sports
Dr. guru sports
EZ Winners
Fairway Jay
Fred Wallin
Gametimereport
Greg DiPalma
Hittingpaydirt
JB Sports
Jim Avery
Jim Kruger
Jorge Gonzalez
Ken Jenkins
Killersportslive
Larry Ness
Lenny Delgenio
LT Profits
Lucky Lester
Madduxsports
Marc Lawrence/Playbook
Matt Fargo
Mike Lineback
Mike Rose
Pacific (Pac Star) Sports
PayneInsider
Paul Stone
Peter Gold at VI
Pick Nation Crew
PlusLineSports
Pointwise Sports
PowerPlay Wins
Preferred Picks
Pregame
Pro Sports Info
Red Zone Sports
Right Angle Sports (RAS)
Rocky Atkinson
Ron Raymond
Ross Benjamin
Sal Bansa/sportspicks1019
Scott Spreitzer
Sixth Sense Sports
Sports Memo Crew
Steve Merril SportsAlatex Sports
Stevo Design Inc. All services
Ted Sevransky/Teddy Covers
Tennessee Valley Sports
THELOCKOFTHEDAY
The Prez
The Real Animal
Tony George
Tony Karpinski/3G-Sports
Tom Stryker
Trushel Sports Consulting
Vegasadvisor s.com
Vernon Croy
Winning Points/Sports Reporter
zen_gambler
-------
GL!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

rxb@ll

Looking for a New Book,
Looking for one that accepts U.S. customers
Then your search is over

• 15% Welcome Bonus:
• Join today and get a 15% Welcome bonus on your first deposit - up to $2,500!
  Enter Promo code: JOIN15 when making your first deposit.
• Promotion valid from 03/01/2013 to 12/31/2015

• Gold 10% Reload Bonus:
• • Get a 10% free-play every time you re-load funds into your betting account.
  • Plus we cover your Western Union or Money Gram fees on deposits of $300 or more.
• Promotion valid from 03/08/2007 to 12/31/2015

• Platinum 10% Reload Bonus:
• Get a 10% free-play every time you re-load funds into your betting account.
• Plus we cover your Western Union or Money Gram fees on deposits of $300 or more.
• Promotion valid from 03/01/2014 to 03/01/2016

• TERMS & CONDITIONS
• • Deposit amount $100 or more
  • 3 Time Rollover
  • Bonus will be credited as a Bonus Play
  • Max Bonus $750
• Basic Bonus Play rules apply.
  
  All bonuses are optional. If you do not want to comply with any rollover requirement, don't submit the code in the cashier.
  *Not available for Moneybookers or Neteller deposits.

• Diamond 15% Reload Bonus:
• * Valid for Diamond Level Rewards members only.
  • Get a 15% Bonus Play every time you re-load funds into your betting account.
  • Plus we cover your Western Union or Money Gram fees on deposits of $300 or more.
• Promotion valid from 08/09/2011 to 12/31/2015

• TERMS & CONDITIONS
• • Deposit amount $100 or more
  • 4 Time Rollover
  • Bonus will be credited as a Bonus Play
  • Max Bonus $3000
• Basic Bonus Play rules apply.
  
  All bonuses are optional. If you do not want to comply with any rollover requirement, don't select this offer in the cashier.
  *Not available for Moneybookers or Neteller deposits.

If that's not enough...
Bookmaker offers.
Live betting on televised sporting events.
Wagers graded and player accounts credited in real time.
Easy to use web interface.Desktop, tablet and mobile compatible.

New BetPoints™ Rewards Program
BetPoints™ is our new loyalty program that rewards our members for playing with BookMaker.
No matter how small your bankroll is, you'll earn valuable BetPoints™ every time you bet sports, casino, or poker.
The more you play, the more rewards you will earn.
BetPoints™ accumulate in your BookMaker account until you decide to redeem them in exchange for great rewards such as cash back, gift cards, airline miles,
Bookmaker merchandise, and more!

Bookmaker Mobile
Access your Bookmaker account directly from your iPhone, iTouch and iPad by using your internet browser.
Bet on sports and horses, play blackjack and video poker, redeem your BetPoints, check open wagers and wagering history, with the swipe of your finger.

If you appreciate my work at the Rx and enjoy the site,
Show your support by signing up with Bookmaker today !
Click on the banner below

w-thumbs!^

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Sunday's MLB betting cheat sheet

Here's a comprehensive look at betting notes for Sunday's MLB betting action:

Tanaka loves New York

The New York Yankees have one of the most favorable home lines of the day at -153 thanks to probable starter Masahiro Tanaka. The 25-year-old Japanese sensation is 3-0 with a 2.15 ERA and 35 strikeouts through his first 29 1/3 major-league innings.

CarGo Vroom

The Los Angeles Dodgers (-185) have to be confident with left-hander Hyun-Jin Ryu on the mound, but he has yet to solve Carlos Gonzalez. The Colorado Rockies outfielder has faced Ryu three times, and has a solo homer and a pair of walks against him.

Well played, Mauer

Expect the Detroit Tigers (-148) and right-hander Justin Verlander to get creative when facing Joe Mauer. The Minnesota Twins star boasts a .371/.473/.581 slash line against Verlander, with four doubles and three home runs in 62 all-time at-bats.

Pitching notes

* Boston Red Sox left-hander Jon Lester is 15-7 with a 3.55 ERA and two of his 10 career complete games in 28 all-time starts versus the Toronto Blue Jays.

* Kansas City Royals right-hander James Shields has allowed exactly one earned run in each of his last four starts, lowing his ERA from 4.26 to 1.91.

Hitting notes

* Chicago White Sox first baseman Paul Konerko is 10-for-20 with two home runs against Tampa Bay Rays lefty David Price, who gets the call Sunday.

* Red Sox third baseman Will Middlebrooks has gone 3-for-8 with a homer in the first two games of Boston's three-game set in Toronto, and is 3-for-6 with a pair of home runs lifetime versus Sunday starter R.A. Dickey.

Total streaks

Toronto Blue Jays (5-0-1 O/U): The pitching staff has been even shakier than expected of late, allowing an average of 7.5 runs over the past six games.

Injury Watch

* Minnesota Twins third baseman Trevor Plouffe (left triceps contusion) left Saturday's game and is considered day-to-day.

* Cincinnati Reds catcher Devin Mesoraco (left hamstring strain) was placed on the 15-day disabled list Saturday and is out until mid-May.

* Pittsburgh Pirates catcher Russell Martin (left hamstring strain) has been placed on the 15-day disabled list and will likely be out until mid-May.

Weather watch

* Fans at Turner Field face a 31 percent chance of thunderstorms for Sunday's game between the Atlanta Braves and Cincinnati Reds, with temperatures expected to be in the high-70s.

* Thundershowers are even more likely at Busch Stadium, with a 77 percent chance in the forecast for the St. Louis Cardinals' tilt with the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Hot and cold betting trends

* Angels at Yankees: New York is 10-2 in its last 12 games as a favorite between -151 and -200.

* Rockies at Dodgers: Over is 7-1-2 in Colorado hurler Jorge De La Rosa's last 10 starts as an underdog.

* Athletics at Astros: Over is 7-1 in umpire Paul Emmel's last eight games behind home plate involving Oakland.

Stat of the Day

Opposing hitters are batting just .150 the first time through the order against Toronto knuckleballer R.A. Dickey this season - but that number jumps to .237 the second time through and .433 on the third pass.

** Odds, stats, weather forecast and probable pitchers as of 7:30 p.m. ET Saturday.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Game of the Day: Rockets at Trail Blazers

Houston Rockets at Portland Trail Blazers (-2, 214.5)

Somebody named Troy Daniels kept Houston alive and the Rockets now attempt to even the best-of-seven Western Conference series when they visit the Portland Trail Blazers on Sunday. Daniels, a recent D-League call-up, knocked down the tiebreaking 3-pointer in overtime as the Rockets avoided falling behind 3-0 in the series with a dramatic 121-116 victory. James Harden set a personal playoff high with 37 points while Houston limited Portland star LaMarcus Aldridge to 23 points after he combined for 89 in the first two games.

The Rockets can regain homecourt advantage with a Game 4 victory and coach Kevin McHale isn’t ready to proclaim his team is back in the series until it wins another one. “We haven’t done anything yet,” McHale said after Friday’s victory. “We’ve won one game. But it feels a lot better than losing.” Portland knows what’s at stake and would prefer to go back to Houston with a chance to clinch the series. “It’s the playoffs and nobody said we were going to come out and sweep them,” point guard Damian Lillard told reporters. “We’re lucky that we were able to win two games in Houston and be in the position we’re in right now.”

TV: 9:30 p.m. ET, TNT, CSN Houston, KGW (Portland)

LINE HISTORY: The Blazers opened as 2-point home faves. The total opened 216, but has been bet down to 215.5.

INJURY REPORT: N/A

WHAT SHARPS SAY: "Home court has meant nothing in this series so far, but that's nothing new as the visitor is 5-3 SU in the last eight matchups between these two budding rivals. All three games have been barn-burners to this point, and we can expect more of the same on Sunday. The Rockets know they can ill afford to fall behind 3-1 in this series - three straight wins over a quality opponent like the Blazers would be an uphill battle to say the least. The line is sharp with Portland laying a bucket; I prefer the Rockets moneyline, noting that the ATS winner has gone 8-1 SU in the last nine meetings in this series." Covers Expert Sean Murphy.

WHY BET THE ROCKETS: Daniels played just 75 minutes in the regular season – 44 of them in the meaningless finale – and didn’t play in the first two games of the playoff series. But he logged 20 minutes in Game 3 and was in at the finish because forward Chandler Parsons had fouled out. His third 3-pointer of the contest was the decisive one with 11 seconds left, changing the status of the undrafted free agent from Virginia Commonwealth from unknown commodity to playoff hero. “As a rookie, you never know when you’re going to play,” Daniels told reporters. “When (McHale) called my name, I was ready to play. That just shows how much confidence he has in me.”

WHY BET THE BLAZERS: Aldridge was just 8-of-22 shooting in Game 3 as the Rockets started a second big man in Omer Asik and repeatedly hounded Aldridge with either Asik or Dwight Howard. Aldridge only had four first-half points before finding some opportunities to get loose in the second half but wasn’t the dominating force he was in the first two games. “The rotated big to big,” Aldridge said afterward, “so they made it a point to take me out and not let me get up a lot of shots and not find a good rhythm.”

TRENDS:

* Over is 13-3 in the last 16 meetings.
* Underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.
* Rockets are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 road games.
* Trail Blazers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games.

COVERS CONSENSUS: 63 percent of wagers are on the Blazers at -2 while 59 percent of wagers are on the Over 214.5.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Rich Allen Sunday Picks.

Our first pick is a strong pick for us in Norway and it needs to win as we need to kill this 3*bet off.

1. Norway Tippeligaen

Stromgodset
minus 0.5 goal
3* bet

2. England Premiership

Manchester City
minus 1.0 goal
1* bet

3. Spain La Liga

Barcelona
minus 1.0 goal
1.5*

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mighty Quinn

Mighty missed with the Spurs (-3 1/2) on Saturday and likes the Clippers on Sunday.

The deficit is 250 sirignanos.

 

[cracy]

STATSYSTEMS SPORTS STAT/SHEETS, 4/27/14
NATIONAL BASKETBALL ASSOCIATION
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
_________________________________________


***** Sunday, 4/27/14 NBA Information *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2013-14 National Basketball Association season we will analyze all of your daily basketball action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
________________________________________________

Eastern Conference Playoffs - Round #1

#753 CHICAGO @ #754 WASHINGTON
(TV: 1:00 PM EST, ABC - Line: Wizards -2.5, Total: 182) - The Washington Wizards had a chance to take a commanding 3-0 lead in the best-of-seven first-round series with the Chicago Bulls but could not quite take care of business down the stretch. The Bulls will look to even the series at two games apiece heading back home when they visit the Wizards for Game #4 on Sunday. Washington grabbed a lead with under four minutes to play in Game #3 but Chicago finally found some offense and came through at the end.

The Bulls were searching for consistent points in the first two games and Mike Dunleavy stepped up in Game #3, coming within one point of matching his career high by scoring 35 points and knocking down 8-of-10 from beyond the arc. Jimmy Butler not only kept his cool in an altercation with Washington forward Nene in the fourth quarter but showed off that ice in his veins on a go-ahead 3-pointer with 24.2 seconds left in the 100-97 victory. Nene, who averaged 20.5 points while getting the better of Defensive Player of the Year Joakim Noah in the first two games, had a tougher time with 10 points on 5-of-15 shooting in Game #3 and was suspended by the NBA for Game $4 for delivering a head-butt to Butler.

•ABOUT THE BULLS (49-36 SU, 42-42-1 ATS): Dunleavy’s ability to stretch the defense was one of the things Chicago had counted on prior to the series, and his franchise playoff-record eight 3-pointers came at the right time. “I feel like I have been shooting the ball well,” Dunleavy told reporters. “I just have not had a ton of looks. Coach mentioned some stuff (Thursday) about trying to get me some catch-and-shoot situations and we did that.... Just one of those nights.” Dunleavy totaled 20 points on 8-of-18 shooting in the first two games of the series, including 4-of-11 from 3-point range, but conveniently picked things up in Game #3 as D.J. Augustin (4-of-15) struggled from the field.

•ABOUT THE WIZARDS (46-39 SU, 45-39-1 ATS): Game #3 started to turn when Nene reacted harshly to what appeared to be just some minor touching from Butler underneath the basket after Nene converted a fast-break layup. The Brazilian big man headbutted Butler and put his hands around the back of his neck, drawing the ejection and a one-game suspension from the NBA. Trevor Booker, who started in Nene’s place at the end of the regular season, will likely get the nod in Game #4 and Drew Gooden could see some extra playing time as well. Washington could also spread the floor with more shooters by surrounding center Marcin Gortat with Trevor Ariza and Martell Webster at the forward spots.

•PREGAME NOTES: The Wizards went 12-9 in 21 games without Nene while the veteran forward recovered from a knee injury down the stretch.... Noah posted a double-double in each of the first two games but was limited to six points and nine rebounds in Game #3.... Washington G Bradley Beal is averaging 25.5 points in the last two games.... The Bulls are 16-6 versus the spread (72.7%) in road games versus good passing teams, averaging more than 23 assists/game over the last two seasons.... The Wizards are 19-6 against the spread (76.0%) revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points this season.

StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.

-- In 1000 simulated games, WASHINGTON covered the spread 502 times, while CHICAGO covered the spread 498 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, WASHINGTON won the game straight up 558 times, while CHICAGO won 422 times. In 1000 simulated games, 728 games went over the total, while 248 games went under the total. *EDGE against the total =OVER.

-- In 1000 simulated games, WASHINGTON covered the first half line 506 times, while CHICAGO covered the first half line 494 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 662 games went over first half total, while 338 games went under first half total. *EDGE against first half total =OVER.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--WASHINGTON is 41-35 against the spread versus CHICAGO since 1996.
--CHICAGO is 41-35 straight up against WASHINGTON since 1996.
--45 of 76 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1996.

--CHICAGO is 38-35 versus the first half line when playing against WASHINGTON since 1996.
--39 of 76 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.

--Bulls are 3-8 ATS in the last 11 meetings.
--Bulls are 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings in Washington.

--Under is 21-8 in the last 29 meetings.
--Under is 12-2 in the last 14 meetings in Washington.

--Underdog is 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.
--Road team is 20-8 ATS in the last 28 meetings.

•RECENT TRENDS
--Bulls are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 1 days rest.
--Over is 6-1 in Bulls last 7 games playing on 1 days rest.
--Over is 7-0 in Bulls last 7 Conference Quarterfinals games.

--Wizards are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 1 days rest.
--Over is 5-0 in Wizards last 5 overall.
--Over is 4-0 in Wizards last 4 Conference Quarterfinals games.

•SITUATION ANALYSIS: Play Over - All teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points (CHICAGO) - after going over the total by more than 12 points in two consecutive games against opponent after going over the total by 24 or more points total in their last three games.
(78-38 since 1996.) (67.2%, +36.2 units. Rating = 2*)

The average total posted in these games was: 185.3
The average score in these games was: Team 96.3, Opponent 93.9 (Total points scored = 190.2)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 52 (44.1% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (4-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (11-4).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (13-7).
_______________________________

#757 TORONTO @ #758 BROOKLYN
(TV: 7:00 PM EST, TNT, TSN Toronto, YES Brooklyn - Line: Nets -4, Total: 192) - The Brooklyn Nets look to take a commanding lead of their best-of-seven first-round series when they host the Toronto Raptors in Game #4 on Sunday. Although they had to survive a near-collapse in the final five minutes, the Nets picked up a 102-98 win in Friday's Game #3 to grab a 2-1 series advantage with their 23rd win in 27 home games since the calendar turned to 2014. Joe Johnson scored 29 points and Deron Williams had 22 to help offset 30 by Toronto's DeMar DeRozan.

The Raptors will try to take some solace in the fact that they fought so hard down the stretch in Game #3 and will hope that some of the momentum carries over. "This team tried to throw haymakers at us and go at us, and we did a good job of battling back and staying in the game," Toronto coach Dwane Casey told reporters. The Raptors still need to clean up their game to stay in the series, as they have turned the ball over 59 times, compared to just 31 for the Nets.

•ABOUT THE RAPTORS (49-36 SU, 47-34-4 ATS): Forward Patrick Patterson will be remembered in Toronto for missing two free throws with his team trailing by two points in the closing seconds of Game #3, but his contributions in the series have been critical for the Raptors. The fourth-year pro, making his playoff debut, is averaging 12.7 points on 62.5 percent shooting and 6.3 rebounds off the bench, earning the favor of Casey over starter Terrence Ross. Ross, who averaged 10.9 points in 26.7 minutes during the regular season, has made just 3-of-16 shots in the series while playing less than six minutes total in the fourth quarter.

•ABOUT THE NETS (46-39 SU, 43-41-1 ATS): Johnson has been too much for the Raptors so far, averaging 23.7 points overall and standing as the lone factor for Brooklyn down the stretch Friday night, when he produced 11 fourth-quarter points to help stave off Toronto. Johnson is shooting 60.5 percent from the floor in the series, which represents a bit of a departure from past playoff performances. While he has put up some big scoring totals over the years, the veteran shot 40.9 percent in the postseason in a span of 54 games from 2008 to 2013.

•PREGAME NOTES: The Raptors have outscored the Nets by a 68-54 margin in the fourth quarter over the last two games.... Brooklyn has been outrebounded by an average of 12 per game in the series.... Toronto is 3-16 all-time on the road in the playoffs.... The Nets are 13-4 versus the spread (76.4%) in home games after having won two of their last three games this season.... The Raptors are 41-27 against the spread (60.2%) versus teams who attempt 18 or more three-point shots/game on the season this season.

StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.

-- In 1000 simulated games, TORONTO covered the spread 513 times, while BROOKLYN covered the spread 457 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, BROOKLYN won the game straight up 571 times, while TORONTO won 407 times. In 1000 simulated games, 716 games went over the total, while 263 games went under the total. *EDGE against the total =OVER.

-- In 1000 simulated games, TORONTO covered the first half line 484 times, while BROOKLYN covered the first half line 480 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 614 games went over first half total, while 355 games went under first half total. *EDGE against first half total =OVER.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--TORONTO is 38-33 against the spread versus BROOKLYN since 1996.
--BROOKLYN is 41-37 straight up against TORONTO since 1996.
--38 of 72 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1996.

--BROOKLYN is 37-36 versus the first half line when playing against TORONTO since 1996.
--46 of 74 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.

--Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
--Over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in Brooklyn.

--Underdog is 6-2-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.
--Road team is 3-1-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.

•RECENT TRENDS
--Over is 5-0 in Raptors last 5 games following a ATS win.
--Over is 6-1 in Raptors last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
--Over is 5-1 in Raptors L6 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.

--Nets are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games.
--Nets are 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
--Under is 5-0 in Nets last 5 after scoring 100 points or more.

•SITUATION ANALYSIS: Play Against - Underdogs versus the money line (TORONTO) - an average defensive team (92-98 PPG) against a poor defensive team (98-102 PPG), revenging a loss versus opponent, off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog.
(361-88 over the last 5 seasons.) (80.4%, +121.9 units. Rating = 3*)

The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -271.7
The average score in these games was: Team 103.3, Opponent 95.3 (Average point differential = +8)

The situation's record this season is: (56-16, +1.4 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (183-59, +13.3 units).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (1206-396, +113.9 units).
_______________________________

StatSystems Sports
Your #1 Source for Winning Information

StatSystemsSports.net takes pride in providing the average player with an edge by building a full in-depth analysis of football, basketball and baseball games. All aspects of games are considered. These include; but are not limited to, injuries, weather, playing surface, team chemistry, individual match-ups, line moves, scheduling, fatigue, statistical analysis, trend analysis, etc. The better prepared you are - The better chance you have of winning, plain and simple.

"Get the most sought after plays in the industry today!" Call us today for a 1 Day VIP Pass - $29.00, 7 Day VIP Pass - $149.00, or get or most popular 30 Day VIP Package for just $499.00. "You'll be Real Glad You Did!"
______________________________________

Western Conference Playoffs - Round #1

#755 LA CLIPPERS @ #756 GOLDEN STATE
(TV: 3:30 PM EST, ABC - Line: Clippers -2.5, Total: 209.5) - The Golden State Warriors bounced back from an embarrassing Game #2 loss but did not have quite enough down the stretch to overcome the Los Angeles Clippers in Game #3. The Warriors will try to protect home court and even the series at two games apiece when they host the Clippers in Game #4 of the best-of-seven Western Conference series on Sunday. The absence of Andrew Bogut for Golden State is becoming more of a concern due to DeAndre Jordan’s strong play.

The Warriors made up for Bogut’s absence with a smaller lineup in Game #1 but Blake Griffin and Jordan have had their way on the inside in the last two contests. Griffin became the first Los Angeles player to go for 30 or more points in back-to-back playoff games since Elton Brand in 2006 while Jordan’s 22 rebounds in Game #3 matched a franchise playoff record. One bright spot for Golden State came in the closing minutes of Game #3 when Klay Thompson and Stephen Curry finally started to get hot from beyond the arc before Curry’s final chance came up short in the 98-96 setback. Los Angeles was dealing with a distraction leading up to Game #4 as owner Donald Sterling is being investigated by the NBA due to an audio tape that surfaced of Sterling making racist remarks.

•ABOUT THE CLIPPERS (59-26 SU, 47-37-1 ATS): Jordan has recorded five blocked shots in each of the first three games and is getting high praise from his coach and teammates. “It doesn’t surprise me,” Chris Paul told reporters of Jordan. “He’s been that way for us, five blocked shots a game. He just covers up for us so many times. When guys get by us, he’s just there for us, and that’s why he is who he is.” Los Angeles struggled at the free throw line in Game #3 (10-of-23) to leave the door open for Curry at the end before Paul made like his teammate and came up with a key defensive stop, avoiding the foul call and altering the final attempt.

•ABOUT THE WARRIORS (52-33 SU, 43-39-3 ATS): Golden State is shooting 27.3 percent from 3-point range in the series and coach Mark Jackson is concerned about the team getting out of rhythm. “We turned the ball over too much,” Jackson told reporters after Game #3. “We just got out of character. I thought we tried to do too much at times offensively instead of trusting our offense. We were just on edge a little bit.” Curry buried three straight 3-point attempts prior to the final miss and did a better job of taking what the defense gave him earlier in the contest while finishing with 16 points and a postseason career-high 15 assists.

•PREGAME NOTES: Warriors F Draymond Green recorded his second career playoff double-double with 13 points and 11 rebounds in Game #3.... Los Angeles F Matt Barnes is 4-of-16 from the field in the series.... Griffin went 13-for-14 from the free-throw line in the first two games but connected on only two of his nine attempts in Game #3.... The Clippers are 28-18 against the spread (60.8%) versus up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots/game this season.... The Warriors are 8-0 versus the spread in home games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) - 2nd half of the season over the last two seasons.

StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.

-- In 1000 simulated games, GOLDEN STATE covered the spread 584 times, while LA CLIPPERS covered the spread 416 times. *EDGE against the spread =GOLDEN STATE. In 1000 simulated games, GOLDEN STATE won the game straight up 506 times, while LA CLIPPERS won 464 times. In 1000 simulated games, 571 games went under the total, while 429 games went over the total. *EDGE against the total =UNDER.

-- In 1000 simulated games, GOLDEN STATE covered the first half line 564 times, while LA CLIPPERS covered the first half line 436 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 538 games went under first half total, while 462 games went over first half total. *No EDGE.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--LA CLIPPERS is 36-35 against the spread versus GOLDEN STATE since 1996.
--LA CLIPPERS is 41-33 straight up against GOLDEN STATE since 1996.
--37 of 72 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1996.

--GOLDEN STATE is 38-35 versus the first half line when playing against LA CLIPPERS since 1996.
--42 of 72 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.

--Over is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings.
--Home team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.
--Clippers are 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Golden State.

•RECENT TRENDS
--Clippers are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 Conference Quarterfinals games.
--Clippers are 1-5 ATS in their L6 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
--Over is 5-1 in Clippers last 6 Conference Quarterfinals games.

--Warriors are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games playing on 2 days rest.
--Warriors are 12-1 ATS in their last 13 Conference Quarterfinals games.
--Over is 5-0 in Warriors last 5 games following a ATS win.

•SITUATION ANALYSIS: Play Under - Home teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (GOLDEN STATE) – a good team - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game, after going over the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games, with a winning record on the season.
(83-37 over the last 5 seasons.) (69.2%, +42.3 units. Rating = 3*)

The average total posted in these games was: 204.4
The average score in these games was: Team 103, Opponent 96.6 (Total points scored = 199.6)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 64 (53.8% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (19-15).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (45-22).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (192-144).
_______________________________

#759 HOUSTON @ #760 PORTLAND
(TV: 9:30 PM EST, TNT, CSN Houston, KGW Portland - Line: Trail Blazers -2, Total: 216) - Somebody named Troy Daniels kept Houston alive and the Rockets now attempt to even the best-of-seven Western Conference series when they visit the Portland Trail Blazers on Sunday. Daniels, a recent D-League call-up, knocked down the tiebreaking 3-pointer in overtime as the Rockets avoided falling behind 3-0 in the series with a dramatic 121-116 victory. James Harden set a personal playoff high with 37 points while Houston limited Portland star LaMarcus Aldridge to 23 points after he combined for 89 in the first two games.

The Rockets can regain homecourt advantage with a Game #4 victory and coach Kevin McHale isn’t ready to proclaim his team is back in the series until it wins another one. “We haven’t done anything yet,” McHale said after Friday’s victory. “We’ve won one game. But it feels a lot better than losing.” Portland knows what’s at stake and would prefer to go back to Houston with a chance to clinch the series. “It’s the playoffs and nobody said we were going to come out and sweep them,” point guard Damian Lillard told reporters. “We’re lucky that we were able to win two games in Houston and be in the position we’re in right now.”

•ABOUT THE ROCKETS (55-30 SU, 41-42-2 ATS): Daniels played just 75 minutes in the regular season – 44 of them in the meaningless finale – and didn’t play in the first two games of the playoff series. But he logged 20 minutes in Game #3 and was in at the finish because forward Chandler Parsons had fouled out. His third 3-pointer of the contest was the decisive one with 11 seconds left, changing the status of the undrafted free agent from Virginia Commonwealth from unknown commodity to playoff hero. “As a rookie, you never know when you’re going to play,” Daniels told reporters. “When (McHale) called my name, I was ready to play. That just shows how much confidence he has in me.”

•ABOUT THE TRAIL BLAZERS (56-29 SU, 46-39-0 ATS): Aldridge was just 8-of-22 shooting in Game #3 as the Rockets started a second big man in Omer Asik and repeatedly hounded Aldridge with either Asik or Dwight Howard. Aldridge only had four first-half points before finding some opportunities to get loose in the second half but wasn’t the dominating force he was in the first two games. “The rotated big to big,” Aldridge said afterward, “so they made it a point to take me out and not let me get up a lot of shots and not find a good rhythm.”

•PREGAME NOTES: Lillard posted his second 30-point outing of the series in Game #3 and is averaging 26.3 points.... Harden is averaging 27.3 points but is just 27-of-82 from the field.... Trail Blazers F Nicolas Batum set a personal playoff best with 26 points in Game #3 and tied his personal best with nine rebounds.... Houston is 5-15 against the spread (25.0%) versus teams who average 53 or more rebounds/game - 2nd half of the season over the last two seasons.... Portland is 1-11 versus the spread (0.08%) in home games in April games, and 4-14 ATS (22.2%) in home games against Southwest division opponents over the last two seasons.

StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.

-- In 1000 simulated games, HOUSTON covered the spread 492 times, while PORTLAND covered the spread 481 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, PORTLAND won the game straight up 526 times, while HOUSTON won 450 times. In 1000 simulated games, 558 games went under the total, while 419 games went over the total. *EDGE against the total =UNDER.

-- In 1000 simulated games, HOUSTON covered the first half line 500 times, while PORTLAND covered the first half line 465 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 552 games went under first half total, while 414 games went over first half total. *EDGE against first half total =UNDER.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--PORTLAND is 37-35 against the spread versus HOUSTON since 1996.
--HOUSTON is 43-33 straight up against PORTLAND since 1996.
--37 of 72 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1996.

--HOUSTON is 44-29 versus the first half line when playing against PORTLAND since 1996.
--37 of 71 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.

--Over is 13-3 in the last 16 meetings.
--Over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in Portland.
--Rockets are 6-1-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings in Portland.

--Underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
--Road team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.

•RECENT TRENDS
--Rockets are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS win.
--Over is 5-0 in Rockets last 5 Sunday games.
--Over is 10-1 in Rockets last 11 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.

--Over is 4-0 in Trail Blazers last 4 Conference Quarterfinals games.
--Over is 5-0 in Trail Blazers L5 when their opponent scored 100 points or more LG.
--Over is 4-0 in Trail Blazers L4 when their opponent allowed 100 points or more LG.

•SITUATION ANALYSIS: Play Under - All teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (PORTLAND) - well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days, revenging a straight up loss versus opponent as a favorite, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%).
(33-10 over the last 5 seasons.) (76.7%, +22.6 units. Rating = 3*)

The average total posted in these games was: 209.7
The average score in these games was: Team 100.4, Opponent 98.3 (Total points scored = 198.7)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 30 (66.7% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (7-5).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (11-6).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (87-55).
_______________________________

 

[AirTroop]

2Halves2Win (dismal 1-3 yesterday & a respectable NBA playoff victory thus far of 14-14 for +1.7 units):

1* GAME: Wizards -1.5(-110: Risking 1.10 units to win 1.00 units) - TBD (TBDu)
1* GAME: Clippers-Warriors o209.5(-110: Risking 1.10 units to win 1.00 units) - TBD (TBDu)
1* GAME: Clippers -2(-110: Risking 1.10 units to win 1.00 units) - TBD (TBDu)

 

[jdsabre]

EZWINNERS

2* Wizards -1.5

3* Cubs +132
3* Red Sox -117
3* A's -130
3* Pirates +145

 

[TreeBarkley]

Anyone on FootballJesus' NBA list? TIA.

 

[jdsabre]

Fezzik


3* Golden State +2

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Today's MLB Picks

LA Angels at NY Yankees

The Yankees look to close out the series tonight and come into the contest with a 10-2 record in their last 12 games as a favorite of -151 to -200. New York is the pick (-165) according to Dunkel, which has the Yankees favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-165). Here are all of today's picks.

SUNDAY, APRIL 27 Time Posted: 7:30 a.m. EST

Game 951-952: Miami at NY Mets (1:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Miami (Koehler) 15.124; NY Mets (Gee) 16.720 Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1 1/2; 6 Vegas Line: NY Mets (-120); 7 Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (-120); Under

Game 953-954: Cincinnati at Atlanta (1:35 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Cueto) 15.883; Atlanta (Teheran) 16.795 Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1; 7 Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-115); 6 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-105); Over

Game 955-956: San Diego at Washington (1:35 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Kennedy) 16.178; Washington (Jordan) 15.113 Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 8 Vegas Line: Washington (-110); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-110); Over

Game 957-958: Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee (2:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Hammel) 4.146; Milwaukee (Peralta) 15.614 Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1 1/2; 7 Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-155); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-155); Under

Game 959-960: Pittsburgh at St. Louis (2:15 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Volquez) 16.343; St. Louis (Wainwright) 15.130 Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1; 6 Vegas Line: St. Louis (-170); 6 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+150); Under

Game 961-962: Colorado at LA Dodgers (4:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (De La Rosa) 14.388; LA Dodgers (Ryu) 15.899 Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1 1/2; 9 Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-200); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-200); Over

Game 963-964: Philadelphia at Arizona (4:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Burnett) 14.276; Arizona (McCarthy) 15.107 Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1; 10 Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-115); 9 Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-105); Over

Game 965-966: Boston at Toronto (1:07 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Lester) 14.489; Toronto (Dickey) 16.018 Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1 1/2; 7 Vegas Line: Toronto (-110); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-110); Under

Game 967-968: Kansas City at Baltimore (1:35 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Shields) 14.833; Baltimore (Gonzalez) 15.775 Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1; 9 Vegas Line: Kansas City (-125); 8 Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+105); Over

Game 969-970: Oakland at Houston (2:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Milone) 15.560; Houston (McHugh) 13.938 Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1 1/2; 8 Vegas Line: Oakland (-145); 9 Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-145); Under

Game 971-972: Detroit at Minnesota (2:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Verlander) 15.681; Minnesota (Gibson) 15.031 Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1/2; 7 Vegas Line: Detroit (-150); 8 Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-150); Under

Game 973-974: Tampa Bay at Chicago White Sox (2:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Price) 14.634; White Sox (Carroll) 15.780 Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1; 9 Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-155); 8 Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (+135); Over

Game 975-976: Texas at Seattle (4:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Harrison) 15.536; Seattle (Maurer) 14.738 Dunkel Line: Texas by 1; 9 Vegas Line: Seattle (-115); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Texas (-105); Over

Game 977-978: LA Angels at NY Yankees (8:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Richards) 15.371; NY Yankees (Tanaka) 16.939 Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1 1/2; 7 Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-165); 8 Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-165); Under

Game 979-980: Cleveland at San Francisco (4:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Salazar) 15.495; San Francisco (Vogelsong) 14.532 Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1; 8 Vegas Line: San Francisco (-110); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-110); Under

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Cappers Access

Bulls +1.5
Nationals -115

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Gamblers Data

Bonus Plays Sunday

Miami / Mets Under 7

Pirates /Cards Over 6.5

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Bonus Play SUN: Clippers -2

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NBA

Sunday, April 27

Chicago is weird NBA team; different guy takes most shots every game; Dunleavy scored 35 in Game 3, making 8-10 from arc. Washington won six of last seven games overall, with last five going over total. Chicago lost three of last five visits here, losing by 13-4-3 points. Bulls lost four of last six games, with five of last six going over total. Favorites are 7-19 vs spread; over is 17-9 in NBA playoffs so far this month.

Golden State was just 6-31 from arc in Game 3, lost by only hoop; they ain't going 6-31 again. Home side won eight of last ten series games; Clippers lost five of last six games in Oakland- nine of last 11 series games went over total. LA won nine of its last 13 games, with ten of those 13 going over the total. Warriors won six of last ten games overall; under is 48-35 in their games this year, 23-17 at home.

All three Toronto-Brooklyn games were decided by 7 or less points. DeRozan scored 30 points in each of last two games, but is just 20-56 from floor in series. Toronto is -25 in turnovers (54-29) in series. Nets are 18-68 from arc in series. Toronto lost five of its last six visits here overall, two of three this season. Nets lost five of last eight games, but are 24-18 vs spread at home this season. Over is 8-5 in east, 9-4 in west.

Aldridge scored 23 in Game 3, after he had 89 points, 26 boards in pair of road wins to open series; Portland won 11 of last 13 games; they've won four of last five home games, all decided by 6 or less points, but Houston won six of their last eight viits here. Blazers had lost five of last six games with Rockets before this series- last ten games in series went over total. Harden is 27-82 from floor this series, not good for Rockets.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NHL

Sunday, April 27

Rangers are just 23-20 at home this season; they were held scoreless after first period in both series losses. Flyers are 21-22 on road; they've lost six of eight games vs Rangers this year; they've lost eight of last nine games here, but evened series 2-2 Friday when Mason stopped 37 of 38 shots. Rangers are 3-20 on power play in series, but 3-12 at home; Philly is 3-11 on power play, 2-4 here. Under is 6-1-3 in last ten Ranger games, 1-8-2 in Philly's last eleven.

Home side is 4-1 in this series, 17-3 overall is Western Conference. Four of five Chicago-St Louis games have gone OT; Blues won first two games of series in OT, tying both games in last 2:00 of regulation- they scored four first period goals in first two series none since, with Chicago winning last three games. St Louis is 2-23 on power play in series, Chicago 2-18; Blues are 2-9 in last 11 games overall. In four OT games, home side outshot visitors 18-6.

Anaheim was 4-6 on power play in 6-2 Game 5 win, after being 0-11 in Games 2-4; they have outscored Dallas 8-3 in first period this series; three of their four third period goals in series came last game. Stars are 28-15 at home this season, were +26 in faceoffs at home, -11 on road in series. Home side won all five series games; bears repeating that home side is 17-3 in west so far in playoffs. Home side has had edge in shots in only two of 15 periods this series.

League-wide, over is 21-10-7 in playoffs so far this year.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Today's NBA Picks

LA Clippers at Golden State

The Clippers look to go up 3-1 in the series and come into today's contest with a 21-8 ATS record in their last 29 Sunday games. LA is the pick (-2) according to Dunkel, which has the Clippers favored by 5 1/2. Dunkel Pick: LA Clippers (-2). Here are all of today's playoff picks.

SUNDAY, APRIL 27 Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. EST

Game 753-754: Chicago at Washington (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 119.621; Washington 119.446 Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 187 1/2 Vegas Line & Total: Washington by 2 1/2; 182 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+2 1/2); Over

Game 755-756: LA Clippers at Golden State (3:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: LA Clippers 127.780; Golden State 122.431 Dunkel Line & Total: LA Clippers by 5 1/2; 205 Vegas Line & Total: LA Clippers by 2; 210 Dunkel Pick: LA Clippers (-2); Under

Game 757-758: Toronto at Brooklyn (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 119.367; Brooklyn 125.535 Dunkel Line & Total: Brooklyn by 6; 188 Vegas Line & Total: Brooklyn by 4; 192 Dunkel Pick: Brooklyn (-4); Under

Game 759-760: Houston at Portland (9:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Houston 122.705; Portland 123.411 Dunkel Line & Total: Portland by 1; 218 1/2 Vegas Line & Total: Portland by 2 1/2; 214 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Houston (+2 1/2); Over

 

[pascal5757]

Kevin's Pick(s):
It wasn't easy, but a 5 STAR WINNER last night with the Phillies coming back down 5-0 to win 6-5. Cliff Lee didn't pitch his best game, but settled in to at least keep the Phillies withing striking distance. And the Dbacks found a way to lose another game. We will take that win and move onto Sunday.
2 UNIT = Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays - RED SOX TO WIN (-104)
Listed Pitchers: Lester vs Dickey
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.92 units)
-- no write ups on a Sunday
Kyle's Pick(s)
2 UNIT = Cincinnati Reds @ Atlanta Braves - UNDER 6.5 RUNS (+100)
Listed Pitchers: Cueto vs. Teheran
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 2.00 units)
-- no write ups on a Sunday

 

[pascal5757]

BeatYourBookie

SUNDAY

NBA Basketball


10* Play Washington -1.5 over Chicago (NBA TOP PLAY)
10* Play Los Angeles Clippers -2 over Golden State (NBA TOP PLAY)
10* Play Brooklyn -4 over Toronto (NBA TOP PLAY)
10* Play Portland -2 over Houston (NBA TOP PLAY)


NHL Hockey


10* Play NY Rangers -150 over Philadelphia (NHL TOP PLAY)
10* Play Chicago -150 over St. Louis (NHL TOP PLAY)