SPORTS ADVISORS
SUNDAY, MARCH 28
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
NCAA TOURNAMENT
MIDWEST REGIONAL
(at St. Louis, Mo.)
(6) Tennessee (28-8, 15-16-2 ATS) vs. (5) Michigan State (27-8, 14-20 ATS)
Tennessee posted its first Sweet 16 victory in school history Friday, upsetting second-seeded Ohio State 76-73 as a 4½-point underdog. Since getting destroyed by Kentucky in the SEC tournament semifinals (74-45 as a 4½-point pup), the Volunteers have gone 3-0 in the Tournament (2-1 ATS). Going back to Feb. 27, Tennessee is on an 8-1 SU run (5-3-1 ATS), and it is 10-2 (6-5-1 ATS) in its last 12 contests. However, both defeats were double-digit blowouts. Michigan State rallied from a seven-point halftime deficit and dumped ninth-seeded Northern Iowa 59-52 as a one-point favorite on Friday. The Spartans won their seventh consecutive Sweet 16 game despite not having team leader and top scorer Kalin Lucas, who suffered a season-ending Achilles’ injury in Michigan State’s one-point buzzer-beating victory over Maryland a week ago. Since experiencing a three-game losing streak in the middle of the Big Ten season, the Spartans have won eight of its last 10, going just 6-4 ATS during this stretch. While this is Tennessee’s first Elite Eight trip in history, the Spartans were here just a season ago, and they dominated Louisville 64-52 as a 4½-point underdog en route to the national championship game. Going back to 1979, when it won the first of two national championships, Michigan State is 6-1 in the Elite Eight, and it is seeking its eighth Final Four appearance all-time and third since 2005. Tennessee is now 8-2 at neutral sites this season (5-4-1 ATS), averaging 71 ppg while allowing 63.4 ppg. Michigan State has still only played six neutral-site contests (including the last four in a row), going 4-2 (3-3 ATS) while pouring in 76.8 ppg and surrendering 69.8 ppg. The Volunteers are in pointspread slumps of 3-7-2 as a Tournament favorite, 1-5-2 when laying less than seven points in the Tournament, 1-4 on Sunday and 1-7 after a spread-cover, but otherwise they’re on pointspread upticks of 5-0-1 in non-conference play, 5-1-1 versus the Big Ten and 5-1-1 against winning teams. Michigan State is on ATS surges of 7-2 in the Tournament, 6-2 as an underdog of less than seven points, 6-2-1 as a neutral-site pup, 4-1 when catching less than seven points in the Big Dance, 6-1 against SEC opponents and 21-8 on Sunday. However, the Spartans are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 non-league contests and 3-8 ATS in their last 11 versus winning teams. It’s been all “unders” for Tennessee lately, including 33-14-1 overall (22-9-1 last 32), 8-4 in non-league play, 6-2-1 at neutral sites, 7-2-1 as a favorite, 5-1-1 as a chalk at neutral sites, 10-1 on Sunday and 22-10-1 after a SU win. Conversely, the Spartans are on “over” stretches of 5-2 at neutral sites, 4-1 as a neutral-site underdog, 4-1 as a pup in the Big Dance and 5-2 against the SEC, but the under is 30-11-1 in Michigan State’s last 42 as an underdog (26-9 as a pup of less than seven points).
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
SOUTH REGIONAL
(at Houston)
(3) Baylor (28-7, 18-10 ATS) vs. (1) Duke (32-5, 21-13-2 ATS)
Baylor earned a trip to the regional finals for the first time since 1950 with a thoroughly dominating 72-49 rout of 10th-seeded St. Mary’s on Friday, easily covering as a five-point favorite. The Bears, who are in the Big Dance for just the fourth time ever and first time in 49 years, have won their three tourney games by comfortable margins (9, 8 and 23 points). Baylor is on an 11-2 SU run, going 6-2 ATS in the last eight following a 1-5 ATS downturn. Duke toyed with its two first-round opponents in Jacksonville, Fla., last weekend – pounding Arkansas-Pine Bluff and Cal by 29 and 15 points, respectively. However, in Friday’s Sweet 16 matchup against Purdue, the Blue Devils found themselves in a dogfight until the final 10 minutes of the second half, when they broke free and won going away 70-57 as an 8½-point favorite. Duke has won seven in a row and 15 of its last 17, and of the Devils’ five losses this season, four have come against teams that reached the Tournament (Maryland, Georgetown, Georgia Tech and Wisconsin). Defense has proven to be the difference for both teams in the Tournament. Baylor has held Sam Houston State, Old Dominion and St. Mary’s to a combined 65-for-175 from the field (37.1 percent), while Duke’s three foes (Arkansas Pine-Bluff, Cal and Purdue) have averaged 51.3 ppg on 36.1 percent shooting (56-for-155). The last time Baylor won consecutive games in the Big Dance was in 1948, which was also its only Final Four appearance. Duke has made 34 Tournament appearances in school history, including 14 in a row, and it is a No. 1 seed for the 11th time overall and the sixth time this decade. However, this is the first time since 2004 that the Blue Devils have reached the Elite Eight, which was also their most recent Final Four appearance. They’ve won three straight Elite Eight contests (2-1 ATS) dating to 1999.
Baylor is 7-2 SU and 6-3 ATS at neutral venues, winning by an average of 9.7 ppg (73.8-64.1). Duke has won all 10 of its neutral-site contests this season (7-3 ATS), outscoring opponents by 15.1 ppg (70.4-55.3). The Bears sport ATS streaks of 6-2 overall, 8-1 in non-conference action, 20-7 at neutral sites, 10-4 as an underdog, 10-3 as a neutral-site pup, 6-1 after a SU win and 5-1 on Sunday. Meanwhile, Duke has cashed in all three Tournament games so far after failing to cover in 10 of 12 prior to this season. The Blue Devils are still just 5-11 ATS in their last 16 as a Big Dance chalk (1-6 when laying less than seven points), but they’re on positive pointspread stretches 7-3 at neutral sites (all as a favorite), 4-1 against the Big 12 and 7-1-1 on Sunday. Baylor has stayed low in six of eight in non-league play, but otherwise is on “over” surges of 5-2 overall, 14-3 after a SU win, 11-2 after a spread-cover (8-1 last nine), 6-0 as an underdog and 4-0 as a pup of less than seven points. Duke carries “under” trends of 5-1-1 overall (4-0 last four), 18-6-1 at neutral sites (all as a favorite), 8-3-1 in the Tournament (4-0 last four), 12-4-1 when laying points in the Big Dance, 4-0 on Sunday and 26-12-1 after a spread-cover.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
NBA
Denver (48-25, 31-37-5 ATS) at Orlando (51-22, 39-33-1 ATS)
After snapping their three-game losing skid on Friday, the Nuggets now look to make it two in a row when they visit Amway Arena for a battle with the Magic. Denver got a buzzer-beating 18-foot jumper from Carmelo Anthony on Friday night to beat the Raptors 97-96 in Toronto, but came up short as a 5½-point favorite. The Nuggets have now failed to cash in seven straight games, including four in a row on the highway. The win was their first since March 18 and first on the road since a 125-108 victory in Memphis on March 13. The Magic got 24 points and 19 rebounds from Dwight Howard in a 106-97 home win over Minnesota on Friday, but fell short as a 15½-point chalk. Orlando has won eight of nine on its home court (6-3 ATS) and 29 of 36 (20-16 ATS) at the Magic Kingdom this season. Orlando has dominated the Nuggets in Orlando, going 18-3 SU at Amway Arena since it opened in 1989, however one of the losses was last season when Denver came in and scored an 82-73 victory as a seven-point pup, ending a nine-game road losing skid in this rivalry. Earlier this season, the Nuggets also took a 115-97 home win over the Magic, easily cashing as 5½-point favorites and moving to 4-2 ATS in the last six head-to-head clashes. The home team is on a 13-3 ATS streak in this rivalry, including Orlando’s 8-1 ATS run at Amway. Denver is 13-6-3 ATS in its’ last 22 as a road ‘dog and 3-0-2 ATS in its last five Sunday tip-offs, but it is on ATS skids of 4-10-3 after a straight-up win, 0-6 after a non-cover, 0-7 against Eastern Conference teams and 0-4 on the highway. Orlando is just 1-4 ATS in its last five against Northwest Division squads, but on ATS streaks of 6-2 on Sunday, 6-2 as a chalk, 8-2 after a non-cover and 5-2 at home against teams with losing road records. The Nuggets are on several “under” streaks, including 5-1 overall, 19-9 as road pups, 4-1 against Eastern Conference teams, 5-1 after a non-cover and 36-17 as underdogs. The Magic are also on a plethora of “under” runs, including 34-16-1 overall, 37-17-1 against the Western Conference, 8-1-1 at home, 22-8 on Sunday, 49-19-1 after getting a day off and 23-9-1 as favorites. The “under” has also been a consistent play in this series lately, going 4-1 in the last five meetings and 4-0 in the last four matchups in Florida.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ORLANDO and UNDER
Portland (44-29, 39-32-2 ATS) at Oklahoma City (44-27, 42-29 ATS)
The surging Trail Blazers, who are in the thick of the playoff picture and looking for their third straight win, head to the Ford Center to face the Thunder. Portland has won seven of its last eight (4-3-1 ATS), including Saturday’s 112-101 victory in New Orleans, easily getting the cash as a 3½-point favorite. Blazers All-Star Brandon Roy went 12-for-14 shooting and finished with 28 points and LaMarcus Aldridge added 24 as Portland shot 58.6 percent from the floor and outrebounded the Hornets 35-25. Portland is now 4-2 (3-2-1 ATS) in its last six roadies.
Oklahoma City comes off its most impressive win of the season, crushing the Lakers 91-75 at home Friday as a one-point underdog. The Thunder led by as many as 30 points before Los Angeles rallied late to make the final respectable. Kevin Durant had 26 points and eight rebounds for Oklahoma City, while point guard Russell Westbrook delivered 23 points and six assists.
These teams have met twice this season with the road team getting the victory each time. Portland came into Oklahoma City on Nov. 1 and took an 83-74 win as a three-point favorite, then the Thunder returned the favor on Feb. 9, winning 89-77 as a 1½-point road chalk. The Blazers have won and cashed in four of the last five meetings and the favorite is 5-0 ATS in those five. Portland is just 1-5 ATS in its last six against Northwest Division teams, but on ATS runs of 12-4-1 on the road, 38-17 when they have to play the second night of a back-to-back, and 4-1-1 overall. Oklahoma City is just 4-10 ATS in its last 14 on Sunday, but on positive ATS runs of 14-5 against winning teams, 6-1 against the Western Conference, 11-1 as a favorite of up less than five points and 4-0 at home against teams with winning road marks. The Blazers have stayed below the posted number in six of eight as an underdog, but they are on “over” streaks of 7-1 on the road, 9-3 on the second night of a back-to-back, 14-6 as road ‘dogs and 5-2 on Sunday. The Thunder have topped the total in five of seven as a chalk, 10 of 14 after a day off and five of eight overall, but they are on “under” runs of 13-3-2 against winning teams and 17-8 as a home favorite of five points or less. Finally, in this series, the “under” is 9-1 in the last 10 meetings and 12-3-2 in the last 17 clashes on the Thunder’s home court.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
San Antonio (43-28, 37-33-1 ATS) at Boston (47-25, 30-40-2 ATS)
The Spurs play the first game of a quick, two-day road trip at TD Garden in Boston, battling the suddenly surging Celtics.
San Antonio has alternated wins and losses in its last seven contests (4-3 ATS), including getting a big home win on Friday over the Cavs, 102-97 as a one-point ‘dog. The Spurs received a big effort from Manu Ginobili, who had 30 points, six assists and six boards. The victory followed a tough home loss to the Lakers on Wednesday, when they were dominated in the second half of a 92-83 setback as two-point favorites. Boston has won six of its last seven (5-2 ATS), including Friday’s 94-86 home win over the Kings, coming up short as an 11-point chalk. The big three of Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen combined for 60 points and 25 rebounds and point guard Rajon Rondo dished out 18 assists. The Celtics have now won five straight at home (4-1 ATS). In this series, the road team has won six of the last seven (5-2 ATS), but the Celtics have won five of the last six overall and cashed in six of the last seven. Back on Dec. 3, Boston traveled to San Antonio and scored a 90-83 upset as a one-point underdog. In fact, the pup has gotten the cash in seven straight series clashes. The Spurs are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 against Atlantic division teams and 0-6 ATS in their last six Sunday games, but they are on a plethora of positive ATS streaks, including 11-3 overall, 6-2 on the road, 5-2 as a road ‘dog, 5-2 after a day off and 7-3 after a spread-cover. The Celtics have cashed in five of six as a chalk, five of seven overall and four of five after a non-cover, but they are on negative ATS trends of 19-39-1 at home, 6-13-2 after a day off, 8-20 as a home chalk, 5-12-1 against Western Conference teams and 0-4-1 on Sunday. San Antonio has topped the total in four of six overall and three of four as a pup, but it is on “under” streaks of 7-2-1 as a road ‘dog, 10-4 after a spread-cover, 9-4-1 on Sunday and 6-1 against the Atlantic division. Boston has gone above the posted number in seven of eight after a non-cover, but stayed below it in eight of 10 after a straight-up win, four of five against the Southwest Division and nine of 13 against the Western Conference. The “under” is also on a 5-3 run in these head-to-head clashes.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
