STATSYSTEMS SPORTS NFL STAT/SHEETS
SUNDAY DECEMBER, 7th 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** National Football League Information - Week #14 *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every week during the 2014-15 National Football League season we will analyze all of your daily football action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups. Content contained in this report remains exclusive private property of Stat/Systems Sports. Database information may not be reused or disseminated in any form without express written consent of the publisher.
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NFL Betting Recap - Week #13
•Biggest Favorite To Cash: For the second straight week, the Indianapolis Colts (-7.5) helped bettors with another win and cover. The Colts watched QB Andrew Luck throw five touchdowns as they destroyed the Washington Redskins 49-27 at home. As far as the Thanksgiving Day results went, Underdogs went 2-1 both straight up and against the spread last Thursday, as the Eagles and Seahawks captured wins as road underdogs. Philadelphia (+3.5) blasted Dallas 33-10 while Seattle (+1.5) humbled San Francisco 19-3. The Under went 2-1.
•Biggest Underdog To Cash:The San Diego Chargers (+6.5 at some shops) trailed the Ravens 30-20 with 6:13 remaining and 33-27 with just 2:22 left before quarterback Philip Rivers rallied the troops on an 80-yard drive. San Diego received a very questionable pass interference call in the end zone that set up a one-yard touchdown pass to Eddie Royal. San Diego closed as a plus-220 choice (Bet $100 to win $200) on the money-line.
•Hot Ant Not: Pittsburgh (-3.5) lost to New Orleans 35-32 and the game wasn't as close as the final score. Including this loss, the Steelers are now 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS in games played at 1:00 PM EST this season. Unfortunately for Pittsburgh, its four final games of the season are scheduled at this time. In the first 13 games of Week #13, the point-spread mattered in one just game. Cincinnati (-6) defeated Tampa Bay 14-13 but failed to cover the number. The win helped the Bengals go 3-0 in their rare three-game road trip. Last week, the AFC North became the first division in NFL history to have all of its teams at least three games over .500 at the same time. Like clockwork, the division went 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS on Sunday. The Falcons kept their playoff hopes alive as they defeated Arizona 29-18 as one-point home underdogs. Atlanta and New Orleans are tied for first place in the NFC South at 5-7 but the Falcons own the head-to-head tiebreaker and their 4-0 in the division.
•Totals: The scoreboard operator was working hard on Sunday as the Over went 7-2 in the first nine games. Most of the results were wire-to-wire winners too. The Over was 6-3 in the 1st half during the early games. The Rams (52), Colts (49) and Texans (45) didn't need help from their opponents as they scored more than the closing total in their respective games. Arizona's late touchdown and two-point conversion helped Over bettors. The Falcons won 29-18 and the last eight pushed the game Over the closing number (45). The Patriots-Packers game had the highest total (57.5) on the board and it fell Under as Green Bay won 26-21. Notable streaks that were extended and came to a close: The Redskins were on a great Under streak (5-0) but that ended as they gave up 49 points to the Colts. The Under has now cashed in six straight for Tampa Bay.
December Will Make Or Break These Teams' Super Bowl Chances
December is when February winners are forged. And in order to make the playoff cut, contenders have to survive the frozen final month of the schedule. Some teams, however, have a much easier path to the postseason. Others, well, let’s just saying they’re not sending the National Football League schedule makers a Christmas card this year. Here’s a look at three Super Bowl hopefuls with the easiest December slates and three contending clubs staring down a December of doom – and their current Super Bowl XLIX odds:
Easy December
•Baltimore Ravens (+6,000 to win Super Bowl)
December Schedule: at Miami, vs. Jacksonville, at Houston, vs. Cleveland
The Ravens fell off the pace in the AFC North, thanks to a slim loss to San Diego Sunday. However, Baltimore can make up that ground with a December schedule as soft as the new-fallen snow. While Cincinnati and Pittsburgh pound on each other two more times, the Ravens have winnable road games in Miami and Houston, lowly Jacksonville at home and a season finale against the Browns, who they already beat in Cleveland this season. Baltimore, at 60/1 odds, can definitely build momentum in the home stretch.
•Detroit Lions (+3,000)
December Schedule: vs. Tampa Bay, vs. Minnesota, at Chicago, at Green Bay
There are no excuses for a late-season collapse from the Lions this December. Detroit, which has won all of its divisional games so far, closes their schedule with three straight NFC North showdowns. But before that run, the Lions host Tampa Bay next week. Then it’s a home date with the Vikings, a trip to Solider Field to face the Bears, and a finale in Lambeau Field which will likely have wild card implications if Detroit takes care of business in the three games prior.
•Houston Texans (+30,000)
December Schedule: at Jacksonville, at Indianapolis, vs. Baltimore, vs. Jacksonville
The Texans, at 6-6, are just behind the Colts in the AFC South, believe it or not, and showed they have plenty of fight left with a dominating performance against the Titans Sunday. As mentioned above, Houston has a date with Baltimore at home in Week #16, a week following a huge showdown in Indianapolis. Those games are bookended by should-be cake walks against the Jaguars. If the Texans can steal one – or both of those middle games – they could be heading back to the postseason. At 300/1 to win the Super Bowl, that’s not a bad deal.
Hardest December
•Dallas Cowboys (+2,800)
December Schedule: at Chicago, at Philadelphia, vs. Indianapolis, at Washington
December has always been a bad month for the Cowboys – going 32-48 after November since 1996 - but the 2014 schedule shows zero mercy on America’s Team. Dallas, known for its disdain of the winter months, is in Chicago for a sub-zero game Thursday night. That situation didn’t work too well for the Cowboys last year. It’s not the only outdoor, cold weather game, with stops in Philadelphia and Washington. Luckily, Dallas gets a break at home... against the Colts who will be no doubt in the mix for home field in the postseason. The Cowboys could very well settle for another 8-8 season once December is done.
•Cincinnati Bengals (+2,500)
December Schedule: vs. Pittsburgh, at Cleveland, vs. Denver, at Pittsburgh
The Bengals swept a tough stretch of three straight road games to cap off November but don’t get much time to breathe with a home date against the Pittsburgh Steelers opening a rough December schedule. These rivals will meet again in the 2014 regular season finale, which will likely have a peppering of playoff picture. Between those two games versus Pittsburgh, Cincinnati visits rival Cleveland and hosts a Denver team looking to lockdown home field.
•Arizona Cardinals (+2,500)
December Schedule: vs. Kansas City, at St. Louis, vs. Seattle, at San Francisco
The wheels are wobbling on the Cardinals’ drive toward the postseason. Arizona was dealt its second straight loss against the Atlanta Falcons Sunday and now runs the gauntlet to close the year, with divisional rivals snapping at their heels. That’s life in the NFC West. The Cardinals host the Chiefs in Week #13, then visit giant-killing St. Louis, host the Seahawks and have a grand finale at Levi's Stadium on December 28th. You could point to Seattle’s final four games as another team with a tough go ahead – at Philadelphia, versus San Francisco, at Arizona, versus St. Louis – but the Seahawks are better equipped than Arizona to handle this type of home stretch, however.
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Week #14 Matchups
Systems Analyst Todd Smith
#151 BALTIMORE @ #152 MIAMI - 1:00 PM
The Ravens lost 34-33 at home as a 6-point favorite against the Chargers on Sunday and now travel to face a Miami squad coming off a 16-13 win as a 6.5-point road favorite against the Jets on Monday Night Football. These teams last met in October last season, when the Ravens won 26-23 as a three-point underdog in Miami. Baltimore has won-and-covered in four straight games in this head-to-head series since the start of 2008, with three of those games having been played in Miami. Both teams rank among the National Football League’s top 10 in both scoring offense and scoring defense. Ravens WR Torrey Smith (knee) is questionable.
KEY STATS
•BALTIMORE is 13-4 ATS off an upset loss as a home favorite since 1992.
•BALTIMORE is 23-11 UNDER after scoring 25 points or more in 2 straight games since 1992.
•BALTIMORE is 45-25 ATS after a playing a game where 50+ total points were scored since 1992.
•MIAMI is 10-1 UNDER at home in the second half of the season over the L3 seasons.
•MIAMI is 16-3 UNDER at home vs. DEFs allowing 235+ passing YPG in 2nd half of season since 1992.
•MIAMI is 13-1 UNDER versus poor defensive teams - allowing >=350 yards/game over the L3 seasons.
#153 PITTSBURGH @ #154 CINCINNATI - 1:00 PM
While the Steelers lost 35-32 at home against the Saints on Sunday, the Bengals picked up their third straight straight-up victory in a 14-13 win in Tampa Bay. This is the first meeting of the 2014 season between these division rivals, who will meet again in the season finale. Pittsburgh is 6-2 both straight-up and versus the spread against the Bengals since the start of the 2010 season, and 11-2 SU (10-2-1 ATS) in games played in Cincinnati since 2002. Although the Bengals’ defense ranks 25th in the league against the run, Cincinnati appears to have righted the ship on that front, allowing an average of 71.3 rushing yards over its past three games
KEY STATS
•PITTSBURGH is 16-6 UNDER away off an upset loss as a home favorite since 1992.
•PITTSBURGH is 7-0 ATS after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games over the L2 seasons.
•PITT is 12-2 OVER away vs. teams allowing 24+ yards per kick return 2nd half of season since 1992.
•CINCINNATI is 7-0 ATS at home off 1 or more consecutive unders over the L2 seasons.
•CINCINNATI is 8-1 ATS at home after playing their last game on the road over the L2 seasons.
•CINCINNATI is 10-1 UNDER vs. excellent ball control teams, 32+ possession min/game over L3 seasons.
#155 INDIANAPOLIS @ #156 CLEVELAND - 1:00 PM
Andrew Luck threw for 370 yards with five touchdowns and an interception in a 49-27 Colts victory over the Redskins on Sunday. The Browns, meanwhile, lost 26-10 as a three-point underdog in Buffalo. Rookie Johnny Manziel took over at quarterback for Brian Hoyer, who threw two interceptions in the loss. The Browns are expected to name their starting quarterback by the middle of this week. The last meeting between these teams was in October 2012, when the Colts won 17-13 as a one-point favorite. They are 3-1 straight-up but 1-3 versus the spread against Cleveland since 2005. CB Vontae Davis (concussion) is questionable for Indy.
KEY STATS
•INDIANAPOLIS is 25-9 ATS when playing with 6 or less days rest over the L3 seasons.
•INDIANAPOLIS is 7-0 OVER away after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games over L2 seasons.
•INDIANAPOLIS is 16-4 ATS after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games over the L3 seasons.
•CLEVELAND is 82-57 UNDER after playing their last game on the road since 1992.
•CLEVELAND is 8-1 OVER at home vs. teams scoring 27 or more points/game since 1992.
•CLEVELAND is 17-6 ATS after 3 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse since 1992.
#157 HOUSTON @ #158 JACKSONVILLE - 1:00 PM
Texans quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick threw for 358 yards with six touchdowns and no interceptions in his return under center in place of Ryan Mallett, as Houston beat Tennessee 45-21 as a six-point home favorite on Sunday. The Jaguars, meanwhile, snapped a four-game losing streak with a 25-24 win as a home underdog against the Giants. Jacksonville won-and-covered both meetings between these teams in 2013, ending a five-game losing streak in the series, during which they were 1-4 ATS. These are two of only six NFL defenses that allow an average of more than 380 yards per game.
KEY STATS
•HOUSTON is 9-1 UNDER after a win by 21 or more points since 1992.
•HOUSTON is 5-18 ATS vs. very bad defensive teams who give up 27+ points/game since 1992.
•HOUSTON is 0-7 ATS away vs. teams outscored by 10+ points per game on the season since 1992.
•JACKSONVILLE is 8-18 ATS in all lined games over the L2 seasons.
•JACKSONVILLE is 0-6 ATS off 1 or more straight overs this season.
•JACKSONVILLE is 5-14 ATS in home lined games over the L3 seasons.
#159 NY GIANTS @ #160 TENNESSEE - 1:00 PM
The Giants lost their seventh straight game in a 25-24 loss in Jacksonville on Sunday, and only once in those seven losses has New York covered the spread. The Titans aren’t faring much better, having lost six in a row and having notched only two ATS wins since a season opening upset victory in Kansas City. Expect both teams to try to establish the run in this one, as these are the only two NFL defenses that give up an average of more than 140 rushing yards per game. Titans quarterback Zach Mettenberger (shoulder) is questionable while WR Justin Hunter (spleen) is out. Rashad Jennings (ankle) is questionable for the Giants.
KEY STATS
•NY GIANTS are 27-9 UNDER away vs. bad defensive teams who give up 24+ points/game since 1992.
•NY GIANTS are 72-39 UNDER after failing to cover spread in 2 of their last 3 games since 1992.
•NY GIANTS are 45-18 UNDER away after failing to cover spread in 2 of their last 3 games since 1992.
•TENNESSEE is 8-1 OVER off a road loss over the L2 seasons.
•TENNESSEE is 4-13 ATS when playing with 6 or less days rest over the L2 seasons.
•TENNESSEE is 0-7 ATS versus terrible defensive teams - allowing 375+ yards/game over L2 seasons.
#161 CAROLINA @ #162 NEW ORLEANS - 1:00 PM
The Panthers lost their sixth straight game in a 31-13 defeat in Minnesota on Sunday. The Saints, meanwhile, snapped a three-game losing streak with a 35-32 victory as a 3.5-point underdog in Pittsburgh. These teams met on a Thursday night in Week #9, when the Saints won 28-10 in Carolina. Mark Ingram rushed for 100 yards and two touchdowns in that game, exploiting a Panthers rush defense that ranks 24th in the NFL in yards per carry allowed. Although the Saints have lost just once over these teams’ past five meetings in New Orleans since 2009, the Panthers are 3-2 ATS in those games.
KEY STATS
•CAROLINA is 15-3 OVER away after having lost 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games since 1992.
•CAROLINA is 31-11 ATS revenging a loss where opponent scored 28 or more points since 1992.
•CAROLINA is 18-4 OVER away after failing to cover the spread in 3 of their last 4 games since 1992.
•NEW ORLEANS is 27-47 ATS at home versus division opponents since 1992.
•NEW ORLEANS is 7-19 ATS off an extremely close road win by 3 points or less since 1992.
•NEW ORLEANS is 7-20 ATS at home vs. teams outscored by 6+ points per game on season since 1992.
#163 TAMPA BAY @ #164 DETROIT - 1:00 PM
The Buccaneers fell just short of beating the Bengals last week, losing 14-13 as a six-point home underdog. The Lions, meanwhile, defeated the Bears 34-17 to halt a two-game losing streak. Last season, the Tampa Bay upset the Lions with a 24-21 victory in Detroit as a seven-point road underdog. Prior to that loss, the Lions had gone 4-5 straight-up but 8-1 against the spread in their previous nine meetings with the Bucs. The road team is 4-0 both SU and ATS in this head-to-head series since the start of the 2008 season. RB Reggie Bush (ankle) is expected to be ready to go for the Lions in this one—Bush has suited up just once since Week #7.
KEY STATS
•TAMPA BAY is 6-14 ATS against conference opponents over the L2 seasons.
•TAMPA BAY is 6-0 UNDER after having lost 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games this season.
•TAMPA BAY is 21-7 ATS after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 3 straight games since 1992.
•DETROIT is 3-17 ATS off 1 or more straight overs over the L3 seasons.
•DETROIT is 1-9 ATS after scoring 30 points or more last game over the L3 seasons.
•DETROIT is 2-11 ATS after playing a game where 50+ total points were scored over the L3 seasons.
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#165 ST LOUIS @ #166 WASHINGTON - 1:00 PM
St. Louis notched its third straight ATS win with a 52-0 blowout of the Raiders on Sunday while Washington dropped its fourth straight in a 49-27 defeat in Indianapolis. The Rams have covered five of their last six meetings with the Redskins since the start of the 2006 season, which includes a 2-0 versus the spread mark in games played in Washington, both of which had a two-point final margin despite the fact that St. Louis was a double-digit underdog in both. The Redskins rank 11th in the NFL in both total offense and total defense, but only the Jets and Raiders have a worse turnover differential than Washington’s minus-7.
KEY STATS
•ST LOUIS is 9-1 UNDER in December games over the L3 seasons.
•ST LOUIS is 10-1 OVER off a non-conference game over the L3 seasons.
•ST LOUIS is 12-28 ATS against NFC East division opponents since 1992.
•WASHINGTON is 6-15 ATS as an underdog over the L2 seasons.
•WASHINGTON is 9-19 ATS in all lined games over the L2 seasons.
•WASHINGTON is 0-6 ATS vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 235+ passing yards/game this season.
#167 NY JETS @ #168 MINNESOTA - 1:00 PM
The Jets head into this one after losing 16-13 but covering as a home underdog against the Dolphins on Monday Night Football. The Vikings’ 31-13 home win over the Panthers on Sunday was Minnesota’s fifth against the spread win in its past six games. New York’s 277 rushing yards on 49 carries against Miami on Monday night moved the Jets into second in the league in rushing, behind only Seattle. They’re the NFL’s only team, however, that has yet to reach 2,000 passing yards in 2014, and their 10 passing touchdowns also ranks last in the league. Only the Raiders have a worse turnover differential than New York’s minus-12.
KEY STATS
•NY JETS are 57-35 UNDER in December games since 1992.
•NY JETS are 11-27 ATS versus good rushing teams - averaging >=4.5 rushing yards/carry since 1992.
•NY JETS are 10-1 UNDER away versus teams averaging 4.5+ rush YPC in 2nd half of season since 1992.
•MINNESOTA is 11-2 UNDER at home off a home win by 10 points or more since 1992.
•MINNESOTA is 10-0 ATS at home in the second half of the season over the L3 seasons.
•MINNESOTA is 14-4 ATS at home when playing with 6 or less days rest over the L3 seasons.
#169 BUFFALO @ #170 DENVER - 4:05 PM
While the Bills defeated the Browns 26-10 in Buffalo to win-and-cover in their second straight game, the Broncos went into Kansas City and won 29-16 as a one-point favorite. These teams have met only twice since 2008, and the Bills have won-and-covered in both meetings. Denver comes into this game ranked third in the National Football League in total defense; Buffalo ranks fifth in the league in that category. While the Broncos’ offense is one of only five NFL units averaging more than 400 total yards per game, the Bills are one of only nine that’s averaging fewer than 320 total yards per contest.
KEY STATS
•BUFFALO is 4-14 ATS after playing a game at home over the last 3 seasons.
•BUFFALO is 15-40 ATS away after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games since 1992.
•BUFFALO is 1-9 ATS vs. good offensive teams - scoring 24 or more points/game over the L3 seasons.
•DENVER is 20-8 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the L3 seasons.
•DENVER is 14-3 ATS after having won 2 out of their last 3 games over the L3 seasons.
•DENVER is 19-5 OVER after scoring 25 points or more in 2 straight games over the L3 seasons.
#171 KANSAS CITY @ #172 ARIZONA - 4:05 PM
Both teams come into this one with winning records but on two-game losing streaks: The Chiefs fell 29-16 to the Broncos as a one-point home underdog on Sunday while the Cardinals lost 29-18 as a one-point favorite in Atlanta. The teams rank tied for fourth in the National Football League in scoring defense, allowing an average of 18.7 points per game. While the weakness of the Chiefs is a rushing defense that’s the only one in the NFL allowing an average of more than 4.9 yards per carry, Arizona’s rushing offense ranks last in the league with an average of 3.1 yards per attempt. Cards RB Andre Ellington (hip) is questionable.
KEY STATS
•KANSAS CITY is 7-0 ATS off 1 or more consecutive unders this season.
•KANSAS CITY is 20-7 ATS against NFC West division opponents since 1992.
•KANSAS CITY is 15-33 ATS away after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games since 1992.
•ARIZONA is 9-1 ATS off 1 or more straight overs over the L2 seasons.
•ARIZONA is 7-0 ATS as a home underdog of 3 points or less over the L3 seasons.
•ARIZONA is 32-10 ATS at home after 2 straight games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse since 1992.
#173 SAN FRANCISCO @ #174 OAKLAND - 4:25 PM
The 49ers go from facing the league’s top defense in a 19-3 home loss to Seattle on Thanksgiving to facing its worst offense in a road game across San Francisco Bay on Sunday. Oakland, meanwhile, returns home after a 52-0 loss in St. Louis. Raiders rookie quarterback Derek Carr was benched in the loss after throwing two interceptions and taking three sacks while passing for 173 yards. He’ll now face a San Francisco defense that comes into this one ranked fourth in the NFL in both passing defense and total defense. WR Michael Crabtree (ribs) is probable
for the 49ers.
KEY STATS
•SAN FRANCISCO is 12-2 ATS as a road favorite of 7 points or less over the L3 seasons.
•SAN FRANCISCO is 8-0 ATS away vs. defenses allowing comp. pct. of 61% or worse over L2 seasons.
•SAN FRANCISCO is 11-1 ATS after failing to cover spread in 2 of their last 3 games over the L3 seasons.
•OAKLAND is 27-52 ATS in December games since 1992.
•OAKLAND is 9-24 ATS at home after having lost 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games since 1992.
•OAKLAND is 8-23 ATS at home after trailing in their previous game by 14+ points at half since 1992.
#175 SEATTLE @ #176 PHILADELPHIA - 4:25 PM
With a 19-3 as a one-point underdog in San Francisco on Thanksgiving night, Seattle has now won two straight and five of its last six. Philadelphia won its second straight as well, defeating the Cowboys 33-10 in Dallas on Thanksgiving. The Seahawks’ 3-1 straight-up and against the spread mark against the Eagles since 2005 includes a pair of victories in Philadelphia, although it’s been seven years since the teams last met in Philly. While the Eagles are one of only four NFL teams averaging more than 31 points per game, they’ll be facing a Seattle defense that’s the only unit in the league giving up an average of fewer than 300 yards per contest.
KEY STATS
•SEATTLE is 10-1 ATS as an underdog over the L3 seasons.
•SEATTLE is 12-2 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging 7+ passing yards/att. over the L3 seasons.
•SEATTLE is 25-8 ATS vs. poor ball control teams, 28 or less possession minutes/game since 1992.
•PHILADELPHIA is 161-126 ATS against conference opponents since 1992.
•PHILADELPHIA is 26-12 OVER off an upset win as a road underdog since 1992.
•PHILADELPHIA is 24-11 OVER at home off a upset win as an underdog since 1992.
#177 NEW ENGLAND @ #178 SAN DIEGO - 8:30 PM
The Patriots lost 26-21 on Sunday as a three-point underdog in Green Bay, after which the team flew to San Diego for Sunday night’s meeting with a surging Chargers team. San Diego has won three straight games after a 34-33 upset win in Baltimore on Sunday. New England’s only loss in the six times these teams have met over the past seven years was in October 2008 when Matt Cassel was under center while Tom Brady was sidelined with a knee injury he suffered in that year’s season opener. Brady’s only ATS loss to San Diego in that span was a 21-12 win as a 14-point favorite in the 2007 AFC Championship Game.
KEY STATS
•NEW ENGLAND is 13-1 OVER after having won 2 out of their last 3 games over the L2 seasons.
•NEW ENGLAND is 11-2 ATS away after being outgained by 150+ total yds in previous game since 1992.
•NEW ENGLAND is 16-4 OVER after covering the spread in 2 of their last 3 games over the L3 seasons.
•SAN DIEGO is 16-7 UNDER against conference opponents over the L2 seasons.
•SAN DIEGO is 13-3 UNDER after gaining 350 or more passing yards in last game since 1992.
•SAN DIEGO is 37-17 UNDER in home games vs. good offensive teams - averaging >=350 yards/game since 1992.
Monday, 12/8/2014
#179 ATLANTA @ #180 GREEN BAY - 8:30 PM
Atlanta comes off a 29-18 home win over Arizona on Sunday to face a Packers team that won its fourth straight in a 26-21 victory over the Patriots. The Falcons are 3-2 straight-up and 5-0 versus the spread over their past five trips to Green Bay, but only the last two of those trips have been during the past 10 seasons. This year’s matchup will be exactly one year since these teams last met, which was a 22-21 win for the Packers as a 3.5-point home favorite. With Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers (368 yards and a pair of touchdowns to outduel Tom Brady) sidelined with a broken collarbone, Matt Flynn brought the Packers back from an 11-point halftime deficit. Atlanta wide receiver Roddy White (ankle) is questionable.
KEY STATS
•ATLANTA is 3-13 ATS off an upset win as a home underdog since 1992.
•ATLANTA is 9-0 UNDER vs. good passing teams with completion pct. of 61%+ over L2 seasons.
•ATLANTA is 8-0 ATS after allowing 6 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games over the L2 seasons.
•GREEN BAY is 7-0 ATS in games played on a grass field this season.
•GREEN BAY is 43-22 OVER as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points since 1992.
•GREEN BAY is 21-7 ATS at home after covering the spread in 5 or 6 of their last 7 games since 1992.
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