VegasButcher
Miami Dolphins -6
This is most likely the LAST game of the Rex Ryan era in New York, and though many might expect a strong effort from the Jets, I believe they are due for a big let-down. There has been 3 very strong efforts from the Jets this year, against top-level teams: week 7 @ NE, week 10 vs PIT, and week 16 vs NE. After almost winning @ Foxboro in the first meeting, NY proceeded to get destroyed the Bills 43-23 the following week. Then after defeating the Steelers at home, NY once again got outplayed by Buffalo in their next game, losing 38-3. Now they’re coming off an absolutely huge effort against the Pats, as Ryan was coaching against Belichick for the last (most likely) time as a HC of the Jets. The Jets D never allowed a gain longer than 17 yards in that game, they held Brady to 5.2 PY/A average, and NE averaged 3.7 YPP for the game. Heck, the 231 net yards that the Patriots gained was their lowest output of the season, and this is the offense that ranks 3rd in the league. Let’s not kid ourselves, it’s not like this 21st ranked defense all of a sudden figured out how to shut-down elite offensive opponents. Ryan is excellent at game-planning, and it’s not a secret that he most covets beating his nemesis, Bill Belichick. His players played extremely hard for him last week, but I don’t think that kind of effort will be sustainable…especially on the road. While Jets are overall 21st defensively this year, they actually rank 11th at home with a DVOA of -7.9%, compared to their 30th rank on the road with a DVOA of +15.5%. That’s an absolutely huge variance in levels of performance. NYJ have allowed 23.1 PPG this year at home and 27.4 on the road.
The matchup with the Dolphins will not be easy. Miami ranks 5th offensively at home and 7th defensively. They have the 10th best passD and the Jets will be a bit more limited there as they’ll be without Harvin for the game. In addition, they will be without Mangold who has a high ankle sprain. This is a very significant loss, as Mangold grades out as PFF”s #1 overall center this year. He is also NY’s BEST offensive player, while Harvin graded out as their 2nd best. These are pretty significant losses, especially given the fact that Miami has the 3rd best pass-rush in the league. I expect a lot of pressure on Geno Smith in this one. In addition, I don’t think NY will have as much success running the ball on Miami as they did in the first meeting. In that game, the Jets ran the ball 49 times for 277 yards, enabling them to keep the game close. Well, Mangold is NY’s best run-blocking O-lineman so his absence will be felt there as well. In addition, Miami’s run-D has been improving, as they’ve held NE and MIN to 227 combined rushing yards on 57 carries, or 3.9 RY/A. Expect the Dolphins to make the necessary adjustments, sell out to stop the run, and force one of the very worst QB’s in the league beat them….on the road.
I expect Dolphins to play loose here. They have nothing to play for but they found out this past week that Philbin is returning for another season, so the players know to expect stability going forward. And after playing a brutal schedule (4th toughest), they get to finish up against one of the worst teams in the league. Unlike Miami, the Jets know that Rex Ryan is out of the door after this season. His players gave him a great send-off last week by almost beating the Pats at home, but I believe we’ll see a major let-down out of them here. Heck, Geno Smith is already telling the media that a HC change could be a good thing for all parties involved. Miami was listed as a -6.5 road favorite against the Jets less than a month ago. Now they’re at home, yet the spread is even lower? Value on the Dolphins here and a great situational spot to back them
Baltimore Ravens -9
A Ravens win and a San Diego loss, and Baltimore is in the playoffs. I’ll get to the Chargers game in a bit here, but my point is that the Ravens have plenty to play for in this one. They played a horrendous game last week, the worst game of their season actually. The defense continued to be stout, holding Houston to 3.9 YPP and only 1 TD, as the Texans kept kicking FG after FG after every one of Flacco’s INT’s. Baltimore’s offense was putrid, averaging 3.1 YPP with Flacco recording a QBR of 3.2 for the game. Baltimore ranks 11th offensively on the season, and averaged+16% offensive DVOA (top-8) in the 6 games prior to last week. Their -70% offensive DVOA @ Houston was clearly an anomaly. And I like them to bounce back this week. In the last 3 weeks, here are the number of plays ran by CLE vs their opponent:
IND 76 vs CLE 63
CIN 71 vs CLE 38
CAR 77 vs CLE 46
In the last 3 weeks, Cleveland offense ran 147 plays while their opponents ran 224. That’s a 60% advantage. In the last 2 weeks alone, Cleveland’s opponents ran 64% of all the plays, and the average in the last 3 weeks has been 75 offensive plays by their opponent. To put that in perspective, the league leader this year for # of plays run per game is Philly, and they’re at 70.6. The NFL average is about 63/64. You can see how many more plays per game Cleveland’s opponents have been running compared to league average, and I am betting that this Browns D is absolutely gassed by now. Baltimore bouncing back from their atrocious showing offensively last week isn’t just probable; I believe it’s a near-certainty.
Biggest reason for such a “plays per game” discrepancy is because Cleveland has been absolutely horrible on the offensive end lately. In the last 5 weeks, they are averaging a -43% DVOA on offense, regardless if it’s Hoyer or Manziel behind center. To put that in perspective, the worst offensive DVOA this year belongs to Tampa, and they’re at -30%. Of course this week neither Manziel nor Hoyer will be available. It’s Connor Shaw time, an undrafted rookie out of South Carolina. I didn’t really bother to look up Shaw’s scouting numbers and college football numbers. It’s irrelevant. If he went undrafted, then I trust the talent evaluators in the league with their assessment of the guy (they miss on ‘undrafted’ players sometimes but it’s very rare). Besides, I expect a run-heavy game plan by the Browns, even though Baltimore’s struggles defensively are in their secondary. The problem of course is that Cleveland ranks 28th running the ball, while Baltimore is 4th in run-defense. Even without Ngata the last few weeks, this runD has been stout. In addition, you have the Ravens’ 7th ranked pass-rush to deal with, so even when Shaw drops back to pass, he needs to get the ball out quickly. And getting the ‘ball out quickly’ is not something that is easy for young players to learn – just ask Peyton Manning how long it took him to master it. Baltimore gives up 24.1 PPG on the road, but they are the BEST scoring defense at home, allowing 14.1 PPG. I’d be very surprised if this horrible Cleveland offense can exceed that number. Offensively, I already mentioned that I expect Baltimore to bounce back from their poor performance last week. They’ll be facing Cleveland’s 32nd ranked runD and 30th ranked D-Line against the run. Forsett should be able to gash this front-7, which will only open up the passing game for Flacco and Co. This is for all the marbles, and Baltimore MUST win this game to have a shot at the post-season. They are 4-1 ATS against teams with ‘losing records’ this year and 4-1 ATS when bouncing back off losses this season. I like their chances for a comfortable DD-win here.
Kansas City Chiefs -3
How many ridiculous ‘comebacks’ can Rivers and the Chargers muster up in a season? Besides an early-season comeback against the Raiders, they now have recorded two more in the last 4 weeks. But look at this team’s performance since their BYE-week: won by 7 against OAK at home, won by 3 against STL at home, needed a huge comeback @ BAL to win by 1, lost vs NE, lost vs DEN, needed another huge comeback @ SF to win in OT. Defensively, this team has really struggled on the road, allowing 28.0 PPG on the season and 35.0 PPG in the last 3. While they give up only 16.6 PPG at home and rank 9th with a home defensive DVOA of -9.9%, they rank 32nd in the league on the road with a defensive DVOA of +22%. For perspective, Atlanta’s +14.1% defensive DVOA is the league-worst mark fur the full season. San Diego has performed much worse on the road defensively than even ATL’s D this year. KC has struggled a bit offensively lately but I think they will have a strong showing in this matchup. Last time they faced the Chargers, KC accumulated 365 yards of offense (+114 over San Diego that game) and controlled the ball for 39 minutes. Charles and the run-game weren’t featured much last week, so I would expect the Chiefs to recommit to it against the Chargers. At the same time, I expect a strong game from KC defense. Philip Rivers is banged up, but more importantly he will once again be without Allen and Mathews, two of his most important offensive weapons. Playing behind a makeshift O-line, Rivers could have a tough game in this one. KC ranks 6th in ASR% (adjusted sack rate) and this D only allows 17.0 PPG at home, the 6th lowest mark in the league. In addition, the Chiefs should have a large advantage on Special Teams. Chiefs have some of the best return units (punt and kick-off) in the league while that’s an area San Diego tends to struggle. I know that KC has very slim hopes of making the playoffs (both CLE and JAX need to post upsets) and San Diego is in with a win, but I still expect a strong effort from the Chiefs. They are 5-2 SU/ATS at home and the crowd will be hyped up once again for a divisional game. I know the Chiefs are 1-4 in the last 5 but 3 of those losses came @ ARZ, @ PIT, and vs DEN. Chargers aren’t the same quality of a team and I like KC to end their season with a “W”.
Carolina Panthers +4
One of the most meaningful games of the weekend here as the winner will secure the division and consequently a “winnable” home playoff game -- they’ll most likely host Arizona in the Wild Card round. And in a divisional game, with so much on the line, every single point matters. But backing Panthers with such a ‘strong’ number (over a FG) isn’t as simple as that, though it could be. I think Panthers have a strong shot to win this game.
The first important factor is the health of Cam Newton. Remember, he was dealing with some injuries earlier this year and missed week-15 after being involved in a car accident. Well, last week he rushed 12 times for 63 yards and a TD, and indication to me that he is fully healthy.
The second key factor is the emergence of Jonathan Stewart. Always high on ‘talent’ but low on ‘staying healthy,’ Stewart has put together a very impressive stretch. In his last 4 games, he’s rushed 78 times for 437 yards, or 5.6 RY/A, and has looked pretty explosive doing so. Controlling the game via the run could be Carolina’s strategy here, and they’ll be going up against 28th ranked ATL runD. Stewart only received 7 carries in the first meeting with ATL and I expect him to be fully unleashed in the rematch.
The third key factor is the current play of both defenses. Atlanta is the 32nd ranked defense in the league, and they’ve been even worse in the first 6 games following their week-9 BYE. The 7th game of course was last week’s domination of the Saints, where they’ve held NO to only 14 points and 328 yards of offense, averaging 4.7 YPP. Falcons forced 2 fumbles and registered 2 INT’s of Brees, and it was clearly their best defensive effort of the season. Keep in mind this was Atlanta’s only 2nd ‘negative’ DVOA effort of the season. Usually when a horrid D has a big game one week, you can typically count on them to revert back to their ‘usual’ selves the following. I doubt we’ll see such a strong effort against the Panthers. On the other side, the Panthers’ D is also coming off a strong effort. But I think their effort is much more sustainable. This Panthers’ D had a horrible start to the year, averaging a defensive DVOA of +15% in the first 7 games of the season, which is on par with Atlanta’s +14% season long mark. Since then, Panthers’ D averaged an impressive -13% DVOA, and had a defensive DVOA of -14% of better in 7 of those 8 games. The -13% DVOA would rank 5th in the league if we compared to season-long marks, behind only DET, BUF, DEN, and SEA. Remember, Carolina ranked 3rd defensively last season with a DVOA of -16%, so this mid-season turnaround isn’t really that surprising. The D has adjusted to playing without Hardy and now ranks 13th against the pass, 12th in pressuring the QB, and 10th in ALY (Adjusted Line Yards) allowed by their DLine. These are impressive rankings compared to where the Panthers started out the year (bottom-5 D). Even if Panthers’ offense falters, this Carolina D should be able to keep them in this game.
Finally, I just want to point out that this is a ‘revenge’ game for the Panthers after losing to Atlanta by 2 earlier this year. Divisional rivals tend to adjust for ‘rematches’ and as often is the case, they end up splitting season-series with one another. Carolina is 2-0 ATS this year in such scenarios, and 9-2 ATS over the last few seasons. In addition, Mike Smith is one of the worst head-coaches in the league, as he often mismanages time late, is very timid, and overall coaches more “NOT to lose” than to actually win the game. Ron Rivera, on the other hand, has a “Riverboat Ron” moniker for a reason. He is more decisive and aggressive, and that’s the approach you need to win games in the NFL. We have a ‘revenge’ angle on our side, a better coach, and a defense that seems to be playing at an ‘elite’ level right now. But more importantly, we have over a FG on our side as well. In what will be a ‘playoff’ game pretty much, this many points could very well be the difference in this one. I think Panthers have just as good of a shot as Atlanta to win this game, and getting this many points is a nice bonus to have if this one is close late. Panthers might be my favorite play of the last month or so, and I hope they get the job done.
