STATSYSTEMS SPORTS NFL STAT/SHEETS
SUNDAY NOVEMBER, 2nd 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
_______________________________________
***** National Football League Information - Week #9 *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every week during the 2014-15 National Football League season we will analyze all of your daily football action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups. Content contained in this report remains exclusive private property of Stat/Systems Sports. Database information may not be reused or disseminated in any form without express written consent of the publisher.
______________________________________________________________
NFL Betting News And Notes - Week #8
•Books Break Even In Week #8: One would think the result of Sunday’s Week #8 AFC matchup between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Indianapolis Colts would have turned out pretty good for sportsbooks with the home team sitting as an underdog and bettors moving the visitor from a 3-point road favorite to -4.5 just before kickoff. But that was not the case at The Wynn, where Executive Director of Race & Sports Operations Johnny Avello said his book broke about even with the Steelers routing the Colts, 51-34. “Actually, the Colts game was a balanced game for us,” Avello told us here at StatSystemsSports.net. “We had some people taking back the 4.5 for pretty big money late. So that game balanced out ok.”
“Balanced out” obviously was not the best-case scenario for The Wynn, but on a day like Sunday, things could have been worse. Two other Week #8 games featuring AFC North teams fell on the right and wrong side for the house, with bettors getting the best of the book on the Cleveland Browns and losing on the Baltimore Ravens, who opened as 3-point road underdogs but closed -3 against the Cincinnati Bengals. Cincinnati held off Baltimore 27-24 with Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton scoring the game-winning touchdown with 57 seconds remaining after surrendering the lead a little more than three minutes earlier. The Ravens saw the public back them more than any other team in Week #8 and ended up getting swept by Cincinnati, also losing the season opener as a 1-ponit home favorite, 23-16.
“Cincinnati was a good game for us,” Avello said. “From top to bottom, it might be the best division in football, competitive-wise anyway.”
The Browns turned in an opposite result for The Wynn, beating up the Oakland Raiders 23-13 in one of the ugliest games of the day both from a watching and wagering perspective. On Friday, Avello had said he thought this was going to be one of Oakland’s best chances to get a victory. As it turned out, the Raiders remained winless on the season and failed to cover the spread for the third time in four games. “The Raider game, we opened 7 and closed 7, but the result was bad for us,” Avello told us. “The Raiders are just a disaster sometimes. It feels like there’s just no game plan, no discipline, the fundamentals are out the window. I feel bad for this kid Carr because he’s a rookie in there, and you can see he’s trying. But he’s probably in the wrong system, there’s no one there to guide him along. It’s a tough spot to be in. It’s just like one catastrophe after another with them.
“If you’re betting on them, you’re going to be life and death. I thought it was a great spot for them, and looking back they probably should have stayed within the 7. You just can’t continuously make the same mistakes week after week.”
Other bad results included the Minnesota Vikings beating the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19-13 in overtime as 1.5-point road favorites after opening +2.5 and the New England Patriots (-6), Miami Dolphins (-7), Kansas City Chiefs (-7) and Houston Texans (-3.5) all winning by two touchdowns or more as favorites. “They bet Minnesota a little, the Patriots were involved in a lot of teasers and parlays, they bet the Chiefs,” Avello said. “The Dolphins got bet. The Houston Texans was a bad game for us.”
Three other games worked out well for The Wynn, including the New Orleans Saints ripping the Green Bay Packers 44-23 on Sunday Night Football as 1.5-point home favorites. Avello knew he was going to lose money if that primetime game went OVER, but bettors still lost backing the Packers. “We lost on the over, the (side) turned out ok,” Avello noted. “Overall, that game turned out alright. We made a few bucks on that game.”
The Arizona Cardinals winning 24-20 against the Philadelphia Eagles despite closing as 1-point home underdogs after opening -3, and the Seattle Seahawks falling on the opening number in a 13-9 road victory over the Carolina Panthers also helped out The Wynn. “The Eagles game, there was money on both sides,” Avello said. “We did take some late Eagle money to have more on the Eagles than the other side. We opened Seattle 4, they won by 4, that game got bet up to 6.”
NFL Betting Recap - Week #8
•Biggest Favorite To Cash: The Denver Broncos (-9) cruised past the Chargers on Thursday Night Football to improve to a perfect 5-0 at home. Denver started the season at 0-3 versus the spread, but the Broncos have cashed in four consecutive games, while hitting the favorites/over combination each time during this stretch.
•Biggest Underdog To Cash: The Carolina Panthers (+6) lost to the Seattle Seahawks at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte for the third straight season, but the Panthers covered in a 13-9 loss. The Seahawks scored a late touchdown to take the four-point lead, just like last season on opening day when Seattle topped Carolina, 12-7.
•Home Sweet Home
Home teams weren't great from a straight-up perspective, going 7-6, but the hosts posted a solid 9-4 against the spread record. Among the home underdogs to cash, the Panthers, Bengals, Steelers, and Falcons. Atlanta (+3.5) was the home squad in London, but it will be a long flight back as the Falcons blew a 21-0 lead in a 22-21 loss to the Lions.
Several road favorites pulled off double-digit wins, as the Dolphins and Texans each dominated on the highway. Miami (-7) overcame a slow start in a 27-13 victory at Jacksonville, as the Dolphins won consecutive games for the first time this season (coincidentally, both on the highway). Houston (-3.5) seemed like the squarest play on the board, but the Texans bounced back from last Monday night's loss at Pittsburgh to dominate Tennessee, 30-16.
•Going For The Kill
Both New England and Pittsburgh broke the 50-point mark in their home blowouts. The Patriots (-6) had no problems with the scuffling Bears, destroying Chicago, 51-23, while putting up 31 points in the second quarter alone. The Steelers (+4.5) didn't have a Monday night hangover, as Ben Roethlisberger threw for over 500 yards in a 51-34 rout of the Indianapolis Colts, who had never lost as a road favorite with Andrew Luck at quarterback.
•Wild in the Desert
The craziest finish of the day took place in Arizona, as the Cardinals and Eagles went back and forth in the second half. Nick Foles hit Jeremy Maclin for a 54-yard touchdown pass to give the Eagles a 17-14 lead in third quarter. After the two teams exchanged field goals, Carson Palmer connected with rookie John Brown on a 75-yard touchdown strike to put the Cardinals in front for good. The Eagles put together one final drive, but Foles couldn't bring home a win as Arizona held off Philadelphia, 24-20 to improve to 6-1.
•Somebody Had to Win
One week after blowing a late lead in a one-point loss at Buffalo, the Vikings traveled to Tampa Bay and built a 10-0 lead. The Buccaneers rallied for a 13-10 advantage in the fourth quarter, but rookie Teddy Bridgewater marched Minnesota down the field for the game-tying field goal to force overtime. Tampa Bay won the coin toss in overtime, but on the first play of scrimmage, the Bucs fumbled and Minnesota returned it for a touchdown for the 19-13 walk-off win. The Buccaneers fell to 1-6 on the season and 0-3 ATS as a favorite.
•Hot And Not
The New England Patriots have won four straight games, while covering three times in this stretch. Since starting 0-2, the Kansas City Chiefs are 4-1 in their previous five contests, as Kansas City owns a 5-2 versus the spread record this season. Of course the New York Jets are on this list for not being hot. New York was pummeled by the Buffalo Bills at home, losing its seventh straight game, while going 0-4 against the spread at Met Life Stadium.
•Total
The Under finished 7-6, including a 2-1 mark in the late afternoon kickoffs. Three teams scored at least 40 points, while just two clubs scored in single-digits. Since beginning the season with four consecutive Over’s, the Browns have hit the Under in three straight games. The Ravens and Bengals seemed destined for an Under as Cincinnati led Baltimore at the half, 7-6 on a 44 total. But the two AFC North rivals exploded in the second half for a combined 38 points to easily sail Over the posted total, as Cincinnati pulled off the sweep of Baltimore, 27-24. The Over continues to hit in primetime games, going 19-4 through 23 night contests, including in Denver's victory over San Diego last Thursday night.
_________________________________________________________
StatSystems Sports
Your #1 Source for Winning Information...
StatSystemsSports.net takes pride in providing the average player with an edge by building a full in-depth analysis of football, basketball and baseball games. All aspects of games are considered. These include; but are not limited to, injuries, weather, playing surface, team chemistry, individual match-ups, line moves, scheduling, fatigue, statistical analysis, trend analysis, etc. The better prepared you are - The better chance you have of winning, plain and simple.
"Get the most sought after plays in the industry today!" Call us today for a 1 Day VIP Pass - $29.00, 7 Day VIP Pass - $149.00, or get our most popular 30 Day VIP Package for just $499.00. "You'll be Real Glad You Did!"
___________________________________________________
Week #9 Matchups
Systems Analyst Todd Smith
#451 SAN DIEGO @ #452 MIAMI - 1:00 PM
The Chargers travel to South Florida trying to avoid a three-game losing streak in a game that could be important in the AFC playoff race. San Diego is winless (2-5 against the spread) over its past seven trips to Miami; its last victory was the epic 41-38 playoff win in January 1982 when Kellen Winslow was carried off the field after catching a playoff-record 13 passes and blocking a field goal. San Diego’s 20-16 loss in Miami last November is one of only two ATS losses the Chargers have suffered over their past eight games played with a 1:00 PM Eastern Standard Time start. San Diego CB Brandon Flowers (concussion) and RB Ryan Mathews (knee) are questionable.
#453 JACKSONVILLE @ #454 CINCINNATI - 1:00 PM
While Jacksonville hits the road after a 14-point home loss to the Dolphins on Sunday, Cincinnati is coming off a three-point win as a small home underdog against the Ravens. The Bengals have won-and-covered each of the past three meetings between these teams, the most recent of which was a 27-10 victory as a small favorite in Jacksonville in 2012, a game in which Cincinnati quarterback Andy Dalton threw for 244 yards with two touchdowns. The Bengals could possibly have star WR A.J. Green (foot) back to face a Jacksonville defense that ranks 27th in the NFL against the pass.
#455 TAMPA BAY @ #456 CLEVELAND - 1:00 PM
The Buccaneers fell to 0-4 at home (both straight-up & against the spread) with a 19-13 Week #8 overtime loss to the Vikings as a small favorite. Tampa Bay has been more competitive away from home this season, covering each of its past two road games with a three-point win as a seven-point underdog and an overtime loss at New Orleans in back-to-back games in Weeks #4 and #5. The Browns’ 23-13 win over the Raiders on Sunday improved their home record to 3-1 (both SU & ATS) in 2014. Buccaneers RB Doug Martin (ankle) and Browns TE Jordan Cameron (concussion) are both questionable for this one.
#457 WASHINGTON @ #458 MINNESOTA - 1:00 PM
The Redskins and Vikings will meet for the fifth straight season with Minnesota having gone 3-1 (straight-up & versus the spread) over the past four meetings. Last season was the only one of the four games that was played in Minnesota: The Vikings won 34-27 in a pick ’em game. Both squads are coming off overtime road victories in Week #8, Minnesota as a small underdog at Tampa Bay, Washington as a 9-point underdog on Monday Night Football at Dallas. If Redskins QB Robert Griffin III is recovered from an ankle injury, he’ll start over Colt McCoy, who went 25-of-30 for 299 yards in the upset victory over the Cowboys.
#459 PHILADELPHIA @ #460 HOUSTON - 1:00 PM
While the Eagles allowed a 75-yard touchdown reception to Arizona’s WR John Brown with 1:21 left in the fourth quarter of their 24-20 setback to the Cardinals on Sunday afternoon, the Texans got back to .500 with a 30-16 victory over a Tennessee Titans squad that was led by rookie quarterback Zach Mettenberger making his first National Football League start. The Texans have not beaten the Eagles in three meetings since Houston entered the league in 2002. Houston is one of five NFL teams allowing an average of more than 270 passing yards per game; Philadelphia is one of six NFL offenses averaging more than 280 passing yards per game.
#461 NY JETS @ #462 KANSAS CITY - 1:00 PM
The Jets’ 20-point home loss to the Bills on Sunday prompted New York to make a change at quarterback, with Michael Vick replacing Geno Smith as the starter after having come on in relief for the second time in October. The Chiefs, meanwhile, rolled to a 34-7 victory over the Rams for their fourth ATS win over their past five games. Kansas City is also 4-1 versus the number over its past five games against the Jets—the only time the Chiefs hosted New York over that span was in a 27-7 win in 2005. In a bit of a scheduling quirk, this marks only the third trip to Kansas City for the Jets in the past 25 years.
#463 ARIZONA @ #464 DALLAS - 1:00 PM
Carson Palmer threw a 75-yard touchdown to John Brown with 1:21 left in the fourth quarter of Arizona’s 24-20 win over the Eagles on Sunday. The Cardinals now face a Dallas team coming off a home loss as a 9-point favorite against the Redskins on Monday Night Football. The home team has dominated this head-to-head series in recent seasons, with visitors going just 1-12 straight-up (3-10 against the spread) since the start of the 1999 season. The past three meetings between these teams have all been in Arizona, with the Cardinals winning outright as an underdog in all three. Arizona CB Patrick Peterson (concussion) is questionable for this one.
#465 ST LOUIS @ #466 SAN FRANCISCO - 4:05 PM
The Rams are coming off a 34-7 loss in Kansas City to face a San Francisco team coming off its bye. These teams met on a Monday night in St. Louis just three weeks ago, when the 49ers erased a 14-0 deficit en route to a 31-17 victory as a three-point favorite. Quarterback Colin Kaepernick had one of his best games of the season, throwing for 343 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions. That marks his third straight win over St. Louis, in which he has 6 touchdowns and 0 interceptions. While OT Jake Long (knee) is out for the Rams, LB Patrick Willis (toe) is questionable for the 49ers.
#467 DENVER @ #468 NEW ENGLAND - 4:25 PM
Peyton Manning threw for 286 yards with three touchdowns and no picks in a 35-21 home win-and-cover over the San Diego Chargers last Thursday night. The Patriots, meanwhile, won 51-23 at home against Chicago behind 354 yards and five touchdowns from Tom Brady. These teams last met in the playoffs this past January, when the Broncos won 26-16 at home as five-point favorites. Manning threw for 400 yards in that game with two touchdowns and no picks. The Patriots, however, are 2-0 straight-up and versus the spread when playing the Broncos in New England over the last three seasons. Montee Ball (groin) could return for Denver in this one.
#469 OAKLAND @ #470 SEATTLE - 4:25 PM
While the Raiders remain winless after falling 23-13 as 6.5-point underdogs in Cleveland, the Seahawks broke a two-game losing streak with a 13-9 win as a six-point favorite in Carolina. Seattle quarterback Russell Wilson comes into this one with marks of 16-2 straight-up and 12-6 against the spread in his career as a favorite at home, he has thrown for 30 touchdowns and just nine interceptions over those 18 games. Seattle is optimistic that both starting center Max Unger (foot) and starting cornerback Byron Maxwell (calf) will return for this one. TE Zach Miller (ankle) and LB Bobby Wagner (toe) will remain out.
#471 BALTIMORE @ #472 PITTSBURGH - 8:30 PM
While the Ravens fell 27-24 at Paul Brown Stadium to Cincinnati on Sunday afternoon, the Steelers beat the Colts by 17-points behind 522 yards and six TD’s from QB Ben Roethlisberger. These teams met in Week #2, when the Ravens beat the Steelers 26-6 as a 2.5-point home favorite, that ended a string of five straight meetings between these teams to be decided by three points or fewer. Roethlisberger is 3-1 straight-up and 2-1-1 versus the spread when facing the Ravens at home since the start of the 2010 season. He has passed for an average of 243.8 yards per game in those contests with five touchdowns and just two interceptions.
Monday, 11/3/2014
#473 INDIANAPOLIS @ #474 NY GIANTS - 8:30 PM
The Colts were blown out at Heinz Field versus Pittsburgh on Sunday, losing 51-34 while allowing 639 yards of total offense. The New York Giants, meanwhile, are coming off of their bye. These teams last met in September 2010, when Indianapolis beat the Giants 38-14 as 4.5-point home favorites. Peyton Manning was still the Colts’ signal-caller in that game. Since 1992, Indianapolis is 2-1 straight-up and against the spread when playing the Giants in New Jersey. Indianapolis is allowing just 99.3 rushing yards per game this season, and New York’s top rusher Rashad Jennings (knee) could end up sidelined again. Wide-receiver Reggie Wayne (hand) is questionable for the Colts.
_______________________________________
Gridiron Trends - Week #9
Systems Analyst Larry Hertner
•NY JETS are 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) versus excellent kickoff return teams, more than 24 yards per return over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was NY JETS 11.0, OPPONENT 26.4.
•MIAMI is 11-1 UNDER (+9.9 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing >=5.65 yards/play over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was MIAMI 17.6, OPPONENT 18.4.
•PITTSBURGH is 34-4 (+29.5 Units) against the money line in home games after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored since 1992.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 25.4, OPPONENT 16.3.
•CINCINNATI is 23-8 (+14.1 Units) against the 1rst half line versus poor passing defenses - allowing 7 or more passing yards/att. in the second half of the season since 1992.
The average score was CINCINNATI 14.0, OPPONENT 8.3.
•SAN DIEGO is 9-0 UNDER (+9.0 Units) the 1rst half total versus good offensive teams - averaging >=350 yards/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was SAN DIEGO 9.9, OPPONENT 9.9.
•JOHN FOX is 11-0 ATS (+11.0 Units) after 3 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was FOX 27.1, OPPONENT 16.4.
•MARVIN LEWIS is 12-2 UNDER (+9.8 Units) after allowing 400 or more total yards/game in their last 3 games as the coach of CINCINNATI.
The average score was LEWIS 17.1, OPPONENT 19.9.
•BILL BELICHICK is 16-1 (+15.3 Units) against the money line off 5 or more consecutive overs in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was BELICHICK 34.4, OPPONENT 14.2.
•TOM COUGHLIN is 27-8 (+18.1 Units) against the 1rst half line versus poor punt return teams, less than 7.5 yards per return as the coach of NY GIANTS.
The average score was COUGHLIN 13.8, OPPONENT 9.2.
•ANDY REID is 18-4 UNDER (+13.6 Units) the 1rst half total versus very bad defensive teams who give up 27 or more points/game in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was REID 9.0, OPPONENT 9.1.
Situational Analysis Of The Week
•Play Against - Road underdogs versus the money line (NY JETS) - with a poor first half defense - 14 or more points per game, after allowing 17 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games, pathetic team - outscored by opponents by 10 or more points/game.
(42-4 over the last 10 seasons.) (91.3%, +36.8 units. Rating = 5*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -150
The average score in these games was: Team 29.2, Opponent 18.1 (Average point differential = +11.2)
The situation's record this season is: (2-0, +2.0 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (13-0, +13.0 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (23-2, +20.0 units).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (93-25, +35.4 units).
________________________________________________
