VegasButcher
Future Plays (Pending):
Seattle Seahawks to win the Super Bowl +200 (
5dimes)
Seattle Seahawks to win the NFC -140 (
5dimes)
SUNDAY
Teaser (6.5 points):- Seattle Seahawks -1 / New England Patriots PK
First of all, I want to emphasize that this is a ‘square play’ and I know it. My model has these games at 26 – 22 Seattle and 28 – 23 New England, so the pure ‘line value’ is on both underdogs. Typically if my model has ‘value’ on a certain side I look to find ways to back that side. But in this instance, I disagree with the numbers. Here’s why
Seattle Seahawks
This is one is very simple: Aaron Rodgers is NOT 100%. Year-long numbers come mostly from Rodgers playing fully healthy. But Rodgers is NOT fully healthy right now, and anyone watching the game against Dallas can attest to it. His mobility is shot and that’s a huge advantage for the Seahawks. Rodgers was terrific against Dallas, averaging 9.0 PY/A with 3 TD’s, 0 INT’s, and QBR of 83. But it’s important to note that he was facing DALLAS, one of the least ‘talented’ defenses in the league. It didn’t help that Rolando McClain, their 2nd best defensive player (according to PFF), came out of that game 10 plays into it. His replacement, rookie Anthony Hitchens, didn’t practice last week since he was dealing with a high ankle sprain. He looked horrible out there, failing to move laterally and having virtually zero ability to close out on ball carriers. Dallas’ pass rush was non-existent. Their only sack came when Green Bay’s center snapped the ball early and Dallas D only registered one other QB-hit on Rodgers the rest of the game. Think about it for a minute. Rodgers can’t run (he did a great job moving in the pocket though) yet Dallas failed to bring any kind of creative pressure to disrupt him, and their defensive linemen were totally useless out there. That won’t be the case against the Seahawks, who finished the year ranking #1 in weighted-DVOA on defense. I’m not going to regurgitate the defensive stats of Seattle’s defense the last 6+ weeks of the season (see last weeks’ analysis for that), but this team is playing lights-out. On par with some of the greatest defenses of all time. I don’t see Green Bay’s run-game doing enough to alleviate pressure off Rodgers. Lacy is big and slow, a non-explosive type of a runner, who typically only gets what the O-line gives him. Against Seattle’s 2nd ranked run-D, yards will be very tough to come by. Earlier this year @ SEA, Lacy rushed 12 times for 34 yards (2.8 RY/A). I expect more of the same in the rematch. Personally, I think Starks is better suited for this game, as he runs harder and has a lot more explosiveness needed through the hole in order to pick up 3-4 yards at a time. Lacy is a type that typically gets 1-2 yards unless the hole is huge, and that could be a big detriment against the Seahawks on Sunday. Put Green Bay in 3rd and long, rush 4 guys, and drop 7 into tight coverage as the threat of Rodgers scrambling is minimal – that’s the game-plan for Seattle’s D.
On the other side, you have the leagues’ MOST efficient run-offense going up against the 24th ranked run-D. Like I’ve mentioned last week, Green Bay’s run-D can’t completely shut-down an opponent, as typically they give up a lot of healthy gains to teams that are committed to the run. And there’s no team more committed to the run than Seattle, especially at home. This year, Seattle led the league with a 53% run-ratio on offensive plays at home. The next closest were the Bengals at home, who ran the ball 49% of the time, 4 percentage points lower! Green Bay’s D-line ranks 26th in ALY-allowed (Adjusted Line Yards) and 25th in Stuff Rate (% of time they stuff the RB/QB at the line of scrimmage or for a loss), and their linebackers rank 21st in 2nd Level Yards allowed. Carolina’s D-line ranked 10th in ALY-allowed this season, 8th in Stuff Rate, and 10th in 2nd Level Yards. No wonder Seattle couldn’t run the ball well last week. Dallas had no such issues @ GB, running 28 times for 145 yards and 5.2 RY/A. (The numbers would have been even better had Murray NOT lost that fumble in the 4th quarter, as he had a lot of ‘green’ in front of him on that play) I expect the Seahawks to have a LOT of success running the ball this week. Besides, Don Capers seems to be clueless on how to stop NFC West teams with “mobile QB’s”. Look how his defense has fared against such teams in the last few years:
2014 Week 1 @ Seattle: 398 yards, 6.0 YPP, and 36 points allowed
2013 Week 1 @ San Fran: 494 yards, 6.6 YPP, and 34 points allowed
2013 Playoffs vs San Fran: 381 yards, 6.0 YPP, and 23 points allowed
2012 Week 1 vs San Fran: 377 yards, 6.1 YPP, and 30 points allowed
2012 Week 3 @ Seattle: 238 yards, 4.7 YPP, and 14 points allowed (the ‘replacement ref’ game and Wilson’s 3rd start of his pro career)
2012 Playoffs @ San Fran: 570 yards, 7.7 YPP, and 45 points allowed.
Green Bay has faced either SEA or SF 6 times in the last 3 years. Their D has allowed on average 410 yards, 6.2 YPP, and over 30 points per game. I use both SEA and SF because both have been very similarly built these last 3 seasons: mobile QB’s, run-oriented offenses, and top-notch defenses. Green Bay’s defense continues to get exploited, and while the personnel has been fairly similar, the defensive-coordinator has been the same every time. Honestly, I have zero faith that Capers can actually come up with the game-plan to at least slow down Russell Wilson and Co.
Finally I want to reiterate that my model has this as a 4-point game. Again, it’s not accounting for Rodgers’ health nor for Seattle’s “current defensive form”, but uses year-long numbers. I’m not really sure how to adjust for Rodgers at less than 100% - is his injury worth a point, 2 points, 3 points, etc? When Green Bay played @ Seattle in week 1 of the regular season they were +4.5 point underdogs. This week they are +7/+7.5. I guess the adjustment for Rodgers’ injury is probably around 2-3 points, in addition to realignment of
Bookmakers’ power-ratings. Regardless, I believe Seattle is a better team even with Rodgers fully healthy. In addition, in the playoffs I tend to like backing teams with a stronger D. In the 2nd half of the season Seattle’s YPPT-allowed (Yards Per Point) was at 22.9, the highest mark in the league and only the 2nd team in the playoffs with a YPPT-allowed mark of 20+. The other such playoff team…….
New England Patriots
The Pats have a 20.5 YPPT-allowed mark in the 2nd half of the year. New England’s defense is not as good as Seattle’s (#11 vs #1), but they know how to game-plan for their opponent and force them into sustaining long drives. The longer a team has to drive for a score, the more susceptible it is for a potential turnover, a big ‘holding’ (or other major) penalty which could be a drive-killer, or just a failure to pick up a 1st down on a 3rd down play. Even if a team scores, New England makes you work for it. This is an important factor in this week’s matchup. Even though Baltimore didn’t have too many problems moving on the Pats last week, I think it will be much tougher for the Colts.
Last week I was shocked to see Denver put Aqib Talib on TY Hilton, Indy’s most explosive WR. Talib is big and physical, and Hilton beat him easily on a number of long completions. I guess that’s one of the reasons why John Fox has been “let go” and is now ready to come coach my Chicago Bears (I’m NOT happy!). Belichik is head-and-shoulder above Fox, or most other coaches in the league when it comes to exploiting offensive matchups or shutting down an opponent’s strength on D. I expect Revis to cover Hilton from the get-go. You take away Hilton and you can take away Indy’s deep attack, forcing the Colts into sustaining long drives. That is not Indianapolis’ forte. There’s a reason why Colts rank only 21st in weighted-DVOA on offense, at -8%. They are simply not very efficient, especially in the 2nd half of the season. Being ‘efficient’ and having ‘big play capability’ are two separate things. You take away the ‘big play’ and you can contain this Indy’s offense. Indy ranks 27th in run-O, they don’t have the best O-line, and most importantly, Luck was a very turnover-prone QB this year. I expect Belichick to take away Hilton in this game, and limit Indy’s ‘big play’ potential, thus forcing Luck to sustain long drives. Can he do it? Yes, he has the talent to. But Luck hasn’t shown enough patience to consistently take what the defense gives you, as he tends to force balls into very tight windows. It could work some games but it could also be disastrous in others. One big new weapon that emerged for Luck is Dan Herron. His value isn’t in the run game but in the passing game, where he’s logged 18 catches in the last 2 playoff games. Cincinnati ranks 29th in covering RB’s in the passing game while Denver is 15th. New England, on the other hand, is 7th. Hightower and Collins are two excellent, versatile linebackers, and I expect both to minimize Herron’s impact in this one. Take away Hilton and Herron, and I think the Colts could struggle a bit offensively. I trust that Belichick will game-plan accordingly.
While New England’s D is a bad matchup for Colts’ strength on offense, it’s the opposite for Indy’s D as Pats’ O is a bad matchup for them. Indianapolis’ strength is their pass-D, which ranks 10th. Vontae Davis is a stud and Mike Adams has been excellent at the safety position. But Indy’s linebackers have been terrible in coverage as the Colts rank 27th defensively against TE’s and 31st against running backs. It’s Gronk and Vereen time for the Pats this weekend! When these teams met earlier this season, New England ran Jonas Gray 37 times for 201 yards and 4 TD’s, as he accounted for exactly 50% of all New England’s offensive snaps in that game. If Colts are preparing to “stop the run” in this week’s rematch, they might be in for a ‘rude awakening’. I expect the Pats to come out throwing the ball, and to specifically utilize their TE’s (don’t forget they also have Wright and Hoomanawanui besides Gronk) and Vereen. Gray is injured AND in a dog-house still it seems, Bolden is a special teamer, and Blount sucks. Expect Vereen to be busy, which is a good thing for this play, as he’s NE’s most explosive running back. A quick passing attack will also compensate for the loss of Pats’ starting center last week.
Finally, I just want to point out that the Colts have beaten a Cincy team that was without AJ Green (and any other decent receiving weapons for that matter) and a Denver team that was led by a very injured and limited Peyton Manning. Pats are a different animal. I think Indy will need to play a perfect game to win this one on the road @ Foxborough. Distractions surrounding the team this week with one of their backup LB’s being arrested on rape charges isn’t helping matters. This is a young team and their accomplishments so far with Luck have been phenomenal in his first 3 years:
2012: Lost @ BAL in the Wild Card Weekend (0-1 in the post-season in ‘12)
2013: Lost @ NE in the Divisional Round (1-1 in the post-season ‘13)
2014: Lose @ NE in the AFC Championship Game?? (2-1 in the post-season in ‘14??)
Looks like the natural progression for the Colts is to lose in the AFC Championship game this year, prior to making the Super Bowl next season J All kidding aside, I think New England is a better team in this matchup and I have a hard time seeing them lose at home in this one
Bottom line is that I don’t see any ‘value’ on the favorites this week, and though there’s ‘some’ value on the underdogs, I don’t think it’s enough for me to make a play straight up. I think teasing both home favorites past the key numbers of 7, 6, 4, and 3 is a very strong play. Seattle and New England are the clear cut BEST two teams in the league this year. If one of them losses at home in an ‘upset’ so be it. But I think both have a great shot to move on to the SuperBowl.
