Service Plays Sunday 1/12/14

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Please remember, this forum is not here for regular posters who cap their own games to post ther daily plays. Please use our individual sport forums to post your plays. Professional cappers (those that sell plays) must remain in the Site Promotion Forum.
Do not post any copy written info from the following services.


Advertise with the Rx - do not post
Al Mcmordie
Allan Eastman
Doc's Sports Services
Jim Feist
Ocal Sports
Robert Ferringo
Sports Money Profit System
Strike Point Sports
Vegas Sports Informer
Vegas Winning Crew


Do not post write-ups
AJ Apollo
Alex Smart
@ntonwins
Apple Handicappers
ASA, ASA Inc’s or American Sports Analysts
ATS Consultants
ATSadv ice.com
Ben Lewis
Brandon Lang's Crew
Bruce Marshall
Chris Jordan's Crew
Dave Cokin
Dennis Hill
Dennis Macklin
Dr. Bob Sports
Dr. guru sports
EZ Winners
Fairway Jay
Fred Wallin
Gametimereport
Greg DiPalma
Hittingpaydirt
JB Sports
Jim Avery
Jim Kruger
Jorge Gonzalez
Ken Jenkins
Killersportslive
Larry Ness
Lenny Delgenio
LT Profits
Lucky Lester
Madduxsports
Marc Lawrence/Playbook
Matt Fargo
Mike Lineback
Mike Rose
Pacific (Pac Star) Sports
PayneInsider
Paul Stone
Peter Gold at VI
Pick Nation Crew
PlusLineSports
Pointwise Sports
PowerPlay Wins
Preferred Picks
Pregame
Pro Sports Info
Red Zone Sports
Right Angle Sports (RAS)
Rocky Atkinson
Ron Raymond
Ross Benjamin
Sal Bansa/sportspicks1019
Scott Spreitzer
Sixth Sense Sports
Sports Memo Crew
Steve Merril SportsAlatex Sports
Stevo Design Inc. All services
Ted Sevransky/Teddy Covers
Tennessee Valley Sports
THELOCKOFTHEDAY
The Prez
The Real Animal
Tony George
Tony Karpinski/3G-Sports
Tom Stryker
Trushel Sports Consulting
Vegasadvisor s.com
Vernon Croy
Winning Points/Sports Reporter
zen_gambler
-------
GL!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

[h=1]Today's NFL Picks[/h]

SUNDAY, JANUARY 12 Time Posted: 9:00 p.m. EST (1/6)

Game 115-116: San Francisco at Carolina (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 139.663; Carolina 140.790 Dunkel Line: Carolina by 1; 46 Vegas Line: San Francisco by 2; 42 Dunkel Pick: Carolina (+2); Over

Game 117-118: San Diego at Denver (4:40 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 142.848; Denver 140.518 Dunkel Line: San Diego by 2 1/2; 51 Vegas Line: Denver by 10; 55 1/2 Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+10); Under

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Cappers Advantage
@big_east
1/12/14 Sunday
San Fran 49ers ML (-130) 2.6units

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Alex Blasscyk

Blasscyk WINS

BW Play: 113 Indianapolis Colts +7.5 (-120) *4 UNITS* (BetOnline)

BW Play: 113 Indianapolis Colts under 53 (-108) *4 UNITS* (5 Dimes)

BW Play: 115 S.F. 49ERS OVER 42 (-105) *5 UNITS* (5 Dimes)

BW Play: 115 S.F. 49ERS -1 (-115) *5 UNITS* (BetOnline)

BW Play: 117 San Diego Chargers OVER 54.5 (-110) *3 UNITS* (Bookmaker)

BW Play: 117 San Diego Chargers +10 (-110) *3 UNITS* (Bookmaker)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Goodfella

4* Playoff GOY 49ers ML

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

LA Syndicate

NFL Playoff Game of the Year - 49ers pk (-110)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

H&H Sports

Triple Dime Panthers

Double Dime Chargers

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

EZWINNERS

5* 49ers -1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL Prop Shop: Divisional Weekend
By SEAN MURPHY

The postseason continues in the NFL with Divisional Weekend getting underway Saturday. Why not spice things up with some player prop bets? Covers Expert Sean Murphy opens the doors of the NFL Prop Shop and gives you his favorite player prop picks for this weekend's action:

Most passing yards

Andrew Luck (Indianapolis Colts) vs. Tom Brady (New England Patriots)

I'll take a shot with Andrew Luck at a healthy underdog price on Saturday.

Here's my thinking: I fully expect the Colts to be playing from behind for much of this game. That means we should see Luck airing it out early and often. I'm aware that the Colts want to be a run-first team, but this is an awfully tough spot to be hard-headed. Luck rallied the offense last Saturday, and I believe he'll be asked to do the same this week.

Take: Luck

Colin Kaepernick (San Francisco 49ers) vs. Cam Newton (Carolina Panthers)

I have the ultimate respect for the Panthers defense, however, we've seen Colin Kaepernick take his game to another level in the playoffs time and time again, and I expect that to be the case again on Sunday afternoon.

Cam Newton has played on the big stage before (in SEC and BCS Championship Games), but the NFL playoffs are another animal. He'll be up against a 49ers defense that is playing 'angry' right now (credit that quote to former 49er and NFL Network analyst Eric Davis) - a unit that should be able to control a good, but not great receiving corps.

Take: Kaepernick

Most rushing yards

Frank Gore (San Francisco 49ers) vs. DeAngelo Williams (Carolina Panthers)

I supported Frank Gore last Sunday against Green Bay, but I'm switching gears this week.

I believe we'll see the 49ers take a more pass-heavy approach against an aggressive Panthers defense on Sunday. Gore will get his share of carries, but I'm not sure he'll create a lot of 'splash' plays.

While DeAngelo Williams hasn't been all that consistent, he does boast big play potential and could rip off a couple of big runs if the 49ers come in a little too focused on Cam Newton.

Take: Williams

Most pass receptions

Keenan Allen (San Diego Chargers) vs. Julius Thomas (Denver Broncos)

If this were a play on which receiver would have a bigger impact on the final result, I might be inclined to back Julius Thomas, as he likely has greater touchdown potential. However, when it comes to receptions, I'll go with Keenan Allen.

Allen was a virtual non-factor in last week's win over the Bengals, but that only serves to give us better line value here. The Chargers know that he needs to play a bigger role in the offense this Sunday if they're going to pull off another shocker in Denver. If they're playing from behind and Philip Rivers is forced to sling it all over the field, that suits our purposes even better.

Take: Allen

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Divisional Round
By JASON LOGAN

Each week, Jason Logan breaks down some of the underlying mismatches in the NFL, hoping to give you an inside edge when handicapping the schedule. Here are four of the biggest betting mismatches for the NFL Divisional Round:

San Francisco 49ers at Carolina Panthers (Pick, 41)

Niners’ momentum vs. Panthers’ bye week blues

As past playoff pushes have shown us, it’s the hot team – not the higher seed – that has the edge. And no team in football is hotter than the 49ers. Not even the icy temps at Lambeau Field could slow down San Francisco, which has won seven in a row (4-3 ATS). The 49ers are coming off a massive victory over Green Bay on a last-second field goal and are out to avenge a loss to Carolina earlier this season.

The Panthers built up a lot of momentum in the final weeks of the season, winning three straight and 11 of their final 12 games to grab the No. 2 seed in the NFC and a first-round bye. But many are asking if Carolina has peaked and whether taking a week off will cool the Panthers’ play. Carolina is no fan of the bye week – playoff or regular season. The Panthers are 0-3 SU and ATS coming off the bye week under coach Ron Rivera and were knocked out of the playoffs in 2008 after a 12-4 season earned them a first-round break, losing 33-13 as 9.5-point favorites to Arizona in the Divisional Round.

San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos (-10, 54)

Chargers’ third-down success vs. Broncos’ third-down defense

The Bolts have already laid the blueprint for beating the Broncos, knocking off Denver 27-20 as 10-point road underdogs in Week 15. San Diego controlled the tempo and dominated time of possession in that game, burning up 38:49 to Denver’s 21:11. A big part of that win – and the Chargers’ overall success – is the team’s ability to keep the chains moving on third down. San Diego ranks tops in the NFL in third-down conversion rate, picking up the first 48.17 percent of the time, and went 6 for 12 on third downs in the win over Denver.

The Broncos defense has been the elephant in the room all season. Denver’s stop unit has been burned for big numbers and is missing one of its key cogs in LB Von Miller, who is out for the season with a torn ACL. The Broncos were in the middle of the road in terms of third-down defense, limiting opponents to a 38.07 conversion percentage (16th), but can’t afford to keep the Bolts on the field Sunday. San Diego did a great job holding on to the ball and removing Peyton Manning and the Denver offense from the equation in Week 15.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL Divisional betting preview: Hot bets and moving odds
By SPORTSINTERACTION

Sports Interaction betting analyst Frank Doyle previews this weekend’s NFL playoff action.

All odds current as of 11 a.m. ET, Jan. 9.

Sunday, Jan. 12

San Francisco 49ers at Carolina Panthers (+1, 42)

Now we’ll get to see what the Panthers are made of. They come into this game as the hottest team in the league with just one loss on their record after starting the season 1-3. They also dropped the 49ers 10-9 in San Francisco back in Week 10, sacking quarterback Colin Kaepernick six times in the process. Still, the 49ers are coming on strong as well and earned a lot of toughness points last week by beating the Packers in frigid Lambeau Field. With a couple of big-play quarterbacks squaring off, this one might come down to who breaks the biggest play when his team needs it most.

Where the action is: This line is bouncing around all over the place. The Panthers opened as 2-point home dogs but the game then moved to a pick ‘em. Now Carolina sits as a 1-point underdog and the total has dropped from 43 at the open to 42. About 61 percent of Sports Interaction bettors are siding with San Francisco.

San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos (-9.5, 54)

A lot of bettors made a pile of money this year betting the Broncos and the over, but now that we’re in the playoffs, betting habits have changed. San Diego has already beaten Denver once this season and has won five straight, covering the number in four of those contests. That alone seems to be enough to sway a good portion of our betting public, even with Peyton Manning on the other side. The Broncos remain +237 Super Bowl favorites.

Where the action is: This number opened at Denver -10 and then dipped to -9.5 not long after. The total has dropped from 55 to 54. As of noon Thursday, 65 percent of our bets are coming in on the underdog Chargers at +9.5.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL mid-week line moves: NFC Divisional Round action report
By JASON LOGAN

Odds for this weekend’s NFL Divisional Round matchups have been on the board since the Wild Card games wound down. That’s more than enough time for the betting public and wiseguys to have their say.

We talk to Michael Stewart, an oddsmaker with CarbonSports.ag, about the action coming in on this weekend’s NFC playoff games and where those odds could end up come kickoff.

San Francisco 49ers at Carolina Panthers – Open: Pick, Move: +2.5, Move: +1

Oddsmakers were on the fence about this NFC Divisional battle, setting Sunday’s game at a pick’em. Carolina edged San Francisco 10-9 on the road back in Week 10 but early money pounced on the red-hot Niners, driving the spread as high as Carolina +2.5 before Panthers money took the home team plus the points.

“I think our sharps realized this game was never going to get to 49ers -3 – like it did versus the Packers - and they decided to take the +2.5 while it was still there,” says Stewart. “This is a situation where sharps and the public are on opposite sides. So far 75 percent of the money is on the 49ers but we very much like our position and we’ll have no problem going into this game needing the dog.”

The total for Sunday’s game has come down as much as one point from 43 to 42 at some books. Early money sided with the Over at CarbonSports.ag, but sharp action forced the books hand, dropping the number to 42.5. The extended forecast for Carolina is calling for 27 percent chance of rain with winds getting up to 7 mph.

“I could see us eventually going to 42 as these are two very good defensive teams but more importantly, both offenses like to run the ball and eat up the clock,” says Stewart. “We’ve booked this total so far dead even so at this time, no need to move this total unless of course we see more sharp action betting us Under.”

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL mid-week line moves: AFC Divisional Round action report
By JASON LOGAN

Odds for this weekend’s NFL Divisional Round matchups have been on the board since the Wild Card games wound down. That’s more than enough time for the betting public and wiseguys to have their say.

We talk to Michael Stewart, an oddsmaker with CarbonSports.ag, about the action coming in on this weekend’s AFC playoff games and where those odds could end up come kickoff.

San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos – Open: -10.5, Move: -9

This will be the third meeting between the Bolts and the Broncos this season, with the teams splitting wins on the road. Early sharp money marched in on San Diego and forced an initial move to Denver -9.5 and the public followed suit, jumping on the upstart Chargers. That has kept books busy juggling the juice on this AFC West rematch. CarbonSports.ag is currently dealing San Diego +9.5 (-120).

“At this point, we’re reluctant to go to Broncos -9 or even down to -8.5, because that would allow for all our bettors to tease the Broncos down to below the key number of three and that’s a concern for us,” says Stewart, who mentions that seven of a possible eight outcomes on teasers hit during the Wild Card Weekend. “While we are concerned about going down to -9 or 8.5, if the straight action keeps backing the dog in this one we’ll eventually get there.”

As for Sunday’s AFC total, books hung the number high, with some markets posting the total at 56 points trying to protect from Broncos bettors who love to take their side and the Over. Under money has dropped the Over/Under as low as 54.5, as of Wednesday afternoon. The forecast for Denver is calling for a slight chance of snow and temperatures in the low 40s.

“So far, 60 percent of the early action is on the Under but that’s of little concern because I know by game time we’re going to need this game under as the public gets more involved over the weekend,” says Stewart. “Also, being the last game of the weekend, I have a feeling we’ll have a ton of parlay liability tied to the Over and that liability will outweigh any straight bet exposure."

 

[SqueezetheJuice]

Sports Reporter:

SF by 12 *Recommended play

Den by 4

 

[SqueezetheJuice]

Winning pts.

SF by 4

Den by 5

 

[SqueezetheJuice]

Goldsheet:

SF 22 Car 16

Den 27 SD 24

 

[SqueezetheJuice]

Power Plays:

No play Caro 22 SF 20

2* OVER in Den

 

[SqueezetheJuice]

PowerSweep:

2* Caro over SF

1* OVER in Den

 

[SqueezetheJuice]

Pointwise:

Caro 20 SF 16

Den 30 SD 27

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

WAYNE ROOT

SUNDAY NFL DIVISIONAL PLAYOFF GAMES

INNER CIRCLE---DENVER
On Sunday, the San Diego Chargers will invade Mile High Stadium to take on the Denver Broncos. The Chargers ended the season playing some great football. They ended the season beating the Broncos and the Chiefs. They are coming off of a game in which they dominated the Cincinnati Bengals. The Broncos will be well rested and sporting the league’s most potent offense. This year, Peyton Manning threw for 5,477 yard and 55 touchdowns. Running back, Knowshon Moreno, rushed for more than a thousand yards on the season, even being out several weeks an injury. The Denver defense will have to be able to stop the running game of the Chargers if they are to give the offense a chance to get going. After defeating the Bengals 27-10, the Chargers will be looking forward to upsetting the Broncos one more time. However, it is very difficult to beat the same team the same season especially when they last played about 3 weeks ago.Defense used to win in playoff games but not any more. With the rule changes made to the QB's, WR's and the restraints placed upon the defenses, it's all about scoring!! Peyton Manning knows after last season brutal loss against Baltimore that time may be running out. TAKE DENVER
____________________________________________

PINNACLE---CAROLINA....DIVISIONAL PLAYOFF GAME OF THE YEAR
The San Francisco 49ers will invade Bank of America Stadium in order to take on the Carolina PanthersThey played their first playoff game against the Green Bay Packers, who were more than game for this one but did manage to move to round 2. The 49ers had a great season by most standards, but suffered the
consequences of being in the same division with the Seattle Seahawks. This meant that the Niners had to enter the playoffs by way of wildcard birth. Wild Card teams that win their first game and then hit the road for game 2 almost never cover the pointspread.The Panthers got off to slow start this season, but they picked up steam with an 8 game winning streak that placed them on top the NFC South. They have played great on the defensive end of the ball. Quarterback, Cam Newton, has had a solid season, throwing for 3,379 yards and 24 touchdowns. Smart money lit up the Sportsbooks after hearing that Steve Smith is ready to play. Public perception is the 49ers have advantage on defense and maybe even at the QB spot but if you watch the games this year or have looked at the numbers neither are true. Just as dominant will be the Carolina defense, since week 6 Panthers have only given up over 20 points once and they keep it going this week. TAKE CAROLINA