THE SPORTS ADVISORS
SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 6
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
(8) Ole Miss at Memphis
Ole Miss opens the season with its highest ranking in 40 years as the Rebels travel to the Liberty Bowl to face traditional opening-game foe Memphis in a non-conference matchup.
After opening the 2008 season 3-4, Ole Miss won its final six games (5-1 ATS), averaging 37 points a contest, capped off by a 47-34 win over then-No. 8 Texas Tech in the Cotton Bowl, cashing as a 3½-point ‘dog and vaulting the Rebels to No. 14 in the final poll. Houston Nutt’s squad did pull off the biggest shock of the 2008 season, upending eventual national champion Florida 31-30 in Gainesville, Fla., as a 23-point underdog on Sept. 27.
Jevan Snead returns at QB for the Rebels after tossing 26 TDs and 13 INTs a season ago. During the six-game winning streak, he threw 16 TD strikes and just three INTs.
Memphis dropped its first three games of 2008 (1-2 ATS), but rebounded to win six of its final nine (4-3-1 ATS) and qualify for the St. Petersburg Bowl where the Tigers were beaten up by South Florida 41-14, coming up short as 10½-point underdogs.
Back under center for Memphis is QB Arkelon Hall who threw 12 TD passes and seven INTs a season ago, but carrying the bulk of the Tigers’ offensive load will be junior RB Curtis Steele, who ran for 1,223 yards in 2008 and was the Conference USA Newcomer of the Year.
Ole Miss leads the series with Memphis 46-10-2 SU, winning 13 of the last 17 meetings, including each of the last four season-openers (2-2 ATS). Last year, Ole Miss scored a 41-24 over the Tigers as a 9½-point home chalk after eking out a 23-21 victory in Memphis back in 2007, coming up just short as a 2½-point favorite. The pup has cashed in five of the last six in this rivalry.
The Rebels are on ATS runs 14-4 overall (including five straight), 5-0 in non-conference games and 7-1 on the road, but they are on ATS slides of 6-13-1 as a favorite, 7-19 in September and 0-4 as road chalk. Memphis is just 1-5 ATS in its last six non-conference contests, but 7-2 ATS in its last nine home games as a ‘dog of 10½ points or more.
Ole Miss has topped the total in its last four non-conference games, but stayed under the number in five of seven overall, eight of 11 as a favorite and nine of 13 on the road. The Tigers are on “over” streaks of 6-2 at home and 4-1 as a home ‘dog.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OLE MISS
Colorado State at Colorado
The Rocky Mountain showdown is in prime time tonight as Colorado State travels to Boulder to take on the instate rival Buffaloes in this traditional season-opening matchup.
First-year coach Steve Fairchild led the Rams to a 7-6 mark (7-5 ATS) in 2008, finishing on a high note by beating Fresno State 40-35 as a two-point underdog in the New Mexico Bowl. Colorado earned the bowl berth by winning its final two regular-season games after dropping five of seven (3-4 ATS) in the middle portion of the campaign.
The strength of the Colorado State offense is the line that has five seniors with 129 career starts under its belt. They will be blocking for QB Grant Stucker, who made a push for the starting nod a season ago before losing the battle to then-senior Billy Farris.
The Buffs were 5-7 (4-7 ATS) in 2008, but things went downhill in a hurry for coach Dan Hawkins after a 3-0 (2-0 ATS) start, as CU lost seven of its last nine both SU and ATS. The defense fell apart late in the season, allowing each of its last five opponents to score 24 points or more.
Colorado finished dead-last in the Big 12 in total offense in 2008 and last in scoring. There is a QB controversy between incumbent QB Cody Hawkins (the coach’s son) and Tyler Hansen. Dan Hawkins is not naming a starter until game time, but it’s believed the edge is with Cody Hawkins, who threw for 1,892 yards, 17 TDs and 10 INTs last season.
The Buffs have cashed in each of the last two meetings with the Rams, including last year’s 38-17 win as 12½-point favorites in Denver, where this matchup had taken place in nine of the last 11 meetings. It was the first time since 2001 this rivalry was decided by more than seven points. The pup is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 clashes.
Colorado State went just 2-5 ATS on the road in 2008 and 1-4 ATS as a visiting ‘dog. Meanwhile, in addition to failing to cash in seven of its final nine games a year ago, Colorado is just 1-7 ATS in its last nine as home favorite of 3½ to 10 points.
The Rams have topped the total in four straight on the road, six of seven overall, and four of five as a pup. The Buffaloes are on “under” runs of 5-2 overall and 11-3 in non-conference games, but they have gone over the number in eight of 11 as a favorite, nine of 13 against Mountain West Conference teams and six of eight as a home favorite.
Finally, the over is 9-4 in the last 13 matchups in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: COLORADO and OVER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Detroit (74-61) at Tampa Bay (72-63)
Former Rays starter Edwin Jackson (11-6, 3.09 ERA) takes the ball at Tropicana Field as the Tigers try to complete a three-game road sweep of Tampa Bay, which sends highly touted prospect Wade Davis to the mound for his major league debut.
Detroit, on top of the A.L. Central by six games over Minnesota, rallied with five late runs to beat Tampa 8-6 on Saturday after scoring three runs in the ninth inning Friday to steal a 4-3 decision. The Tigers are riding a five-game winning streak and they’ve won seven of the last 10 against the Rays, including four of six this season.
In addition to their current five-game run, the Tigers are 8-1 in their last nine against right-handed starters. However, they’re still on slides of 8-15 on the road, 22-44 on the road against winning teams and 2-5 on Sundays. Tampa is in funks of 1-5 on Sunday, 10-27 in the third game of a series and 1-5 against right-handers. But the Rays are still on runs of 37-17 at home, 70-32 at home against teams with losing road records and 73-28 at home against right-handers.
Jackson gave up four runs on nine hits in five innings on Tuesday, but his offense bailed him out with an 8-5 win at home against the Indians. His last road outing was on Aug. 26 in Los Angeles when he gave up four runs on eight hits in 6 1/3 innings of a 4-2 loss to the Angels. Detroit has won each of Jackson’s last four starts as a favorite, but the Tigers are just 1-5 in his last six roadies and 0-5 on the road when he faces a winning team. Jackson is facing his former mates for the first time in his career.
Davis, who turns 24 on Monday, went 10-8 with a 10.40 ERA in 28 starts at Triple-A Durham. He’s Tampa Bay’s top minor-league pitching prospect.
It’s been all “unders” lately for the Tigers, including 14-5 in Jackson’s last 19 starts overall, 10-2 when he pitches on the road, 10-4 when he’s a favorite, 7-3 in their last 10 as a team overall and 13-6 in their last 19 Sunday games. Also, the Rays are on “under” streaks of 14-5 as a home ‘dog, 6-1 on Sundays and 19-8-2 against A.L. Central teams.
In this series, the “over” has been the play in 10 of the last 16 games played in Florida.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Boston (78-57) at Chicago White Sox (68-69)
The White Sox will try to make it five straight wins overall and four in a row over the Red Sox when they send southpaw John Danks (12-8, 3.82 ERA) to the hill at U.S. Cellular Field to face Boston lefty Jon Lester (11-7, 3.58).
Chicago has outscored Boston 17-3 in the first two games of this four-game set, including Saturday’s 5-1 victory led by Gavin Floyd, who allowed just one run on three hits over eight innings while striking out 11. Chicago has won three straight against Boston dating to a series-finale at Fenway Park last week. Prior to this run, though, the Red Sox had taken 14 of 17 against the Pale Hose.
Despite dropping the first two in this series, Boston carries positive runs of 19-8 as a favorite, 46-19 against A.L. Central teams, 10-3 against teams with a losing record, 4-1 as a road chalk and 6-2 on the road against teams with a losing mark. Chicago is on slides of 0-5 on Sundays and 3-7 against A.L. East teams, but it is 7-1 in its last eight as a home ‘dog and 9-2 in its last 11 at home against winning teams.
The Red Sox have won four straight with Lester on the hill and he’s 2-0 with a 2.61 ERA in his last three trips to the mound. On Tuesday he allowed two runs over six innings of an 8-4 win in Tampa Bay. Lester has not allowed more than three runs in any of his last six road starts with Boston winning three straight.
With Lester on the hill, Boston is on positive runs of 36-16 overall, 7-3 on the road, 10-4 on Sundays, 4-1 against the A.L. Central and 7-1 when he’s a road favorite. Also, in his lone start against the White Sox this season, Lester gave up three runs in 6 2/3 innings in a 6-3 home win on Aug. 25, improving to 1-1 with a 4.12 ERA in three career starts versus Chicago.
Danks hasn’t allowed more than three runs in any of his last five outings, including Tuesday when he held the Twins to three runs on six hits in seven innings, but he failed to earn a decision in a 4-3 loss. Prior to that, Danks held the Red Sox to two runs on six hits in six innings of a 9-5 win on Aug. 27. It was the first time in four starts that Danks came out on top against Boston, against whom he is now 1-3 with a 5.24 ERA.
Chicago is on positive streaks of 5-2 when Danks is a ‘dog, 4-1 when he’s at home and 4-0 when he faces A.L. East squads. He’s made 12 starts at US Cellular Field this year, going 5-5 with a 3.98 ERA.
Boston is on “over” streaks of 17-6 as a favorite, 10-5 against losing teams and 5-1-1 against southpaws, but with Lester on the hill, the Red Sox are on “under” runs of 5-2 on Sundays and 5-1 against the A.L. Central. For Chicago, the “under’ is on streaks of 14-3 overall, 6-0 at home, 20-7-1 as an underdog and 11-4-1 as a home ‘dog. Also, with Danks pitching, the White Sox have stayed under the total in four of five overall, six of seven on Sunday and 12 of 16 against teams with a winning record.
Finally, the under is 6-2-1 in the last eight meetings between these two, but the over is 7-4 in the last 11 clashes in the Windy City.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON
<!-- / message --> <!-- / message -->
