Dr bob
3 Star Selection
Byu (-13) over SANTA CLARA
18-Feb-12 04:00 PM Pacific
Santa Clara has lost 14 straight games but the Broncos did cover the spread in their last 2 games as big underdogs. The Broncos are a big dog again today but they were in very good situations in two games they just covered on the road and today they are in a negative 72-141-4 ATS situation against a BYU team that doesn’t letdown against bad teams. In fact, the Cougars play relatively better against bad teams. BYU is 25-2-2 ATS when favored by less than 15 points against teams with a win percentage of less than .550, including 22-1-2 ATS away from home. The Cougars have already won road games at San Diego, at Pepperdine, and at Portland by an average of 17 points and Santa Clara is worse than all of those teams. My ratings favor the Cougars by 16 ½ points and I’ll take BYU in a 3-Star Best Bet at -14 points or less and for 2-Stars up to -15 points.
Play Strength: 3-Stars at -14 or less, 2-Stars up to -15.
2 Star Selection
Illinois-Chicago (+3 ½) over EASTERN ILLINOIS
18-Feb-12 04:00 PM Pacific
Illinois-Chicago is winless on the road this season, but the Flames are a better team than Eastern Illinois and the Panthers are just 4-15 ATS at home the last two seasons, including 1-10 ATS as a home favorite. My ratings only favor Eastern Illinois by 1 ½ points and the Panthers apply to a 0-16-1 ATS subset of a 26-71-1 ATS Bracket Buster situation. I’ll take Illinois-Chicago in a 2-Star Best Bet at +2 points or more and for 3-Stars at +4 or more.
Play Strength: 2-Stars at +2 or more, 3-Stars at +4.
2 Star Selection
GEORGIA SOUTHERN (-5 ½) over NC Greensboro
18-Feb-12 04:30 PM Pacific
NC Greensboro has won 10 of 11 games and the Spartans have won their last 3 games as an underdog. However, teams that win 3 straight games as underdogs tend to fall flat away from home in their next game and NC Greensboro applies to a very negative 19-62-1 ATS situation that is based on that premise. Georgia Southern has been playing well too, winning 7 of 8 and covering in 5 of their last 6 games and my ratings favor the Eagles by 6 ½ points and using conference games only favors Georgia Southern by 7 ½ points. I’ll take Georgia Southern in a 2-Star Best Bet at -6 points or less.
Play Strength: 2-Stars at -6 or less.
2 Star Selection
Texas Tech (+25 ½) over KANSAS
18-Feb-12 05:00 PM Pacific
Kansas is coming off a hard fought road win over rival Kansas State and the Jayhawks will probably have a tough time getting up for a lowly Texas Tech team that they already beat by 35 points on the road. Texas Tech applies to a 26-2-1 ATS subset of a 123-55-2 ATS big dog humiliation revenge situation and Kansas applies to a 101-203-4 ATS huge home favorite letdown situation and the Jayhawks are 0-4 ATS in that angle under coach Bill Self. My ratings favor Kansas by 25 ½ points, so the line is fair, and the situation is so strong that I’m willing to give up some line value. I’ll take Texas Tech in a 2-Star Best Bet at +24 points or more.
Play Strength: 2-Stars at +24 or more.
3 Star Selection
Hawaii (+9 ½) over MONTANA
18-Feb-12 06:00 PM Pacific
Montana is 19-6 straight up this season, but the Grizzlies beat up on bad teams and struggle against mediocre and good teams. Montana has only played 7 games this season against teams as good or better than Hawaii and they’re just 2-5 straight up and 1-5-1 ATS in those games with their only two wins coming by an average of 3.5 points. Hawaii, meanwhile, has covered 8 straight as an underdog and the Warriors are an underrated team. My ratings favor Montana by just 7 points in this game and the Grizzlies apply to a 17-60-2 ATS Bracket Buster angle. I’ll take Hawaii in a 3-Star Best Bet at +9 points or more and for 2-Stars down to +8.
Play Strength: 3-Stars at +9 or more, 2-Stars down to +8.