Newsletter plays
ncaa football
hot
confidential kick off 11* (7-4-1) ..... Uconn
ed cash (sports memo) (7-4) ....iowa st
hq report ats (8-4) ....
Marc lawrence playbook 4* (8-4) ... Oklahoma
marc lawrence playbook 5* (8-4) ..... Tcu
northcoast power plays 4* (83-65-1) ... Rutgers...purdue...ohio st ...nc ....nd...penn st ...tcu...iowa...unlv...mississippi...flor atl.... Utah
the red sheet 89* (15-8-1) ... Vandy...nc st
sports reporter super best bet (5-2) ...
Winning points best bet (15-9)....arkansas....nc st
cold
hq report total recall (3-9) ...
Kevin o'neill (the maxx) (13-18-1) ... G tch ( w) ...mississippi...virgina
logical approach sel of week (5-8) ...byu
logical approach featured sel (10-13) ... Illinois...stanf...misssissippi
marc lawrence playbook upset (4-6) .. Flor atl
marty otto (sports memo) (3-5) ... Wake forest
matty baiungo (the maxx) (8-12) ... Flor st... Arizona
northcoast power sweep 4* (3-8) .. Purdue
pointwise 2* (4-9) ... Memphis
sports reporter best bet (21-27-1) ... Oklahoma...clemson..iowa..w.virg..
The rest
brent crow (sports memo) (6-4) ... Nc st
confidential kick off 10* (16-19-1) ... Arkie...nd...byu
dave fobare (the maxx) (6-5) ... Nevada
donnie black (sports memo) (4-6) ... Nc st
erik scheponik (the maxx) (6-5) ....ohio st
erin rynning (sports memo) (3-4)....
Fairway jay (sports memo) (3-3) .... Tcu
hq report 5* (6-5-1) ....
Hq report underdog play of week (6-6) ...
Jared klein (sports memo) (4-4) ... Minny
nelly's sportsline 4* (4-5) .. Vandy
nelly's sportsline 5* (4-4) ... Ark
nelly's sportsline 6* (1-0)...
Northcoast power sweep dog (5-5) ... Tennessee
pointwise 1* (10-14)....... Utah...rice
rob veno (sports memo) (3-4)...
Sports insight marketwatch (16-18-1) ...nevada...ariz...miss st
sports reporter recommended (19-15-1) ... Ark st...arizona..ohio st...kansas st ...tulsa
statfox platinum sheet (26-26-2) ... C.mich ( l).... Bc....nc...penn st...byu
teddy covers (sports memo) (3-3)...wash
the gold sheet extra (29-24) .... Nc st ....vandy...rice...utep
the gold sheet (25-23) .. Buffalo ( w) .... Nortwestern...mississippi...vandy
the red sheet 90* (1-0)...
Tim trushel (sports memo) (3-3)
vegas experts the edge 3* (9-6)...mich st...ariz....lsu
winning points preferred (25-24-1).. Purdue..iowa st...akron...tcu
ncaa football
hot
confidential kick off 11* (7-4-1) ..... Uconn
ed cash (sports memo) (7-4) ....iowa st
hq report ats (8-4) ....
Marc lawrence playbook 4* (8-4) ... Oklahoma
marc lawrence playbook 5* (8-4) ..... Tcu
northcoast power plays 4* (83-65-1) ... Rutgers...purdue...ohio st ...nc ....nd...penn st ...tcu...iowa...unlv...mississippi...flor atl.... Utah
the red sheet 89* (15-8-1) ... Vandy...nc st
sports reporter super best bet (5-2) ...
Winning points best bet (15-9)....arkansas....nc st
cold
hq report total recall (3-9) ...
Kevin o'neill (the maxx) (13-18-1) ... G tch ( w) ...mississippi...virgina
logical approach sel of week (5-8) ...byu
logical approach featured sel (10-13) ... Illinois...stanf...misssissippi
marc lawrence playbook upset (4-6) .. Flor atl
marty otto (sports memo) (3-5) ... Wake forest
matty baiungo (the maxx) (8-12) ... Flor st... Arizona
northcoast power sweep 4* (3-8) .. Purdue
pointwise 2* (4-9) ... Memphis
sports reporter best bet (21-27-1) ... Oklahoma...clemson..iowa..w.virg..
The rest
brent crow (sports memo) (6-4) ... Nc st
confidential kick off 10* (16-19-1) ... Arkie...nd...byu
dave fobare (the maxx) (6-5) ... Nevada
donnie black (sports memo) (4-6) ... Nc st
erik scheponik (the maxx) (6-5) ....ohio st
erin rynning (sports memo) (3-4)....
Fairway jay (sports memo) (3-3) .... Tcu
hq report 5* (6-5-1) ....
Hq report underdog play of week (6-6) ...
Jared klein (sports memo) (4-4) ... Minny
nelly's sportsline 4* (4-5) .. Vandy
nelly's sportsline 5* (4-4) ... Ark
nelly's sportsline 6* (1-0)...
Northcoast power sweep dog (5-5) ... Tennessee
pointwise 1* (10-14)....... Utah...rice
rob veno (sports memo) (3-4)...
Sports insight marketwatch (16-18-1) ...nevada...ariz...miss st
sports reporter recommended (19-15-1) ... Ark st...arizona..ohio st...kansas st ...tulsa
statfox platinum sheet (26-26-2) ... C.mich ( l).... Bc....nc...penn st...byu
teddy covers (sports memo) (3-3)...wash
the gold sheet extra (29-24) .... Nc st ....vandy...rice...utep
the gold sheet (25-23) .. Buffalo ( w) .... Nortwestern...mississippi...vandy
the red sheet 90* (1-0)...
Tim trushel (sports memo) (3-3)
vegas experts the edge 3* (9-6)...mich st...ariz....lsu
winning points preferred (25-24-1).. Purdue..iowa st...akron...tcu
Lee Kostroski
TITLE: 10* CFB Midwest Game - 82% lifetime!!
REASON FOR PICK: PLAY ON 10* College FB Midwest Game of year - Penn State (-) vs. Michigan State, 3:30 PM EST $75.00
The Nittany Lions are playing for the right to go to their first Rose Bowl since 1994. Their calling it the biggest game in Beaver Stadium since PSU joined the Big Ten back in 1993. It’s also Senior Day for 17 players on the Penn State team and they can be the first class to win two Big Ten titles (they earned one in 2005 also). On top of that, tickets are going for astronomical prices as many believe this could be Joe Paterno’s final home game as head coach. Of course that is all speculation, however either way the atmosphere will be beyond electric.
Now to the game on the field. We feel that PSU is the FAR superior team here and apparently so do the odds makers who’ve made them a two TD chalk, despite the fact that MSU is also playing for a share of the conference title. However, a PSU win puts them in the Rose Bowl while if the Spartans win (they won’t) they also need Michigan to win at Ohio State for them to jet off to California. That won’t happen either. Penn State has huge advantages on BOTH sides of the ball here. On offense they are averaging 442 yards per game (6.39 yards per play) ranking them 18th nationally. MSU puts up 355 YPG (just 5.11 yards per play) which puts them in the bottom half of all college teams at 66th. The defensive side of the ball is a very similar story. The Nittany Lions are in the top 10 in EVERY major defensive category (yards allowed, rushing yards allowed, passing yards allowed and points allowed). Penn State is 4th nationally in overall defense giving up just 258 total yards (4.15 yards per play). The Spartans give up 340 yards per game (5.04 yards per play) which is again middle of the pack in the NCAA. Thus in the yards per play differential PSU is a great +2.24 while MSU is a very mediocre +0.07. That’s quite a large disparity with basically and entire season of statistics.
While the Spartans are 9-2, we’ve been rather unimpressed for the most part. While they have won six of their seven conference games, MSU has actually been out gained in four of those seven games. The only teams they have out yarded in conference play were Michigan, Purdue and Indiana who just happen to sit at 9th, 10th and 11th place in the conference going into this weekend. Their Big Ten road schedule has been very easy for the most part. Their three conference road games have come at Indiana, Michigan and Northwestern. The Spartans win at Northwestern was a gift as the Wildcats lost despite out gaining MSU by 162 total yards.
This Spartan team is carried by their running game. RB Javon Ringer is very good, but he is really starting to wear down late in the season. Watching him against Wisconsin a few weeks ago, he simply doesn’t have the burst he had earlier in the year and it’s not even close. That’s what happens when a team leans on a tailback to carry the ball 30+ times each game. He had just 54 yards on 21 carries in that game vs. the Badgers. He cracked the 100-yard barrier in his most recent game vs. Purdue, however he only averaged 3.7 yards per carry in that game. And that was against a Boilermaker defense that ranks 96th in the nation in rush defense. Now he faces a top 10 rush defense on the road. We realize that MSU had two weeks off, however that isn’t enough time to recoup from getting beat up for 11 straight games. To push the point home even more, MSU has actually been out rushed in 4 of their last 6 games and they have somehow gotten by because of the level of competition and mistakes by the opposition. Not here. They don’t want to rely on QB Brian Hoyer who has completed just 49% of his passes this year but they will have to in this game. MSU’s luck runs out at Beaver Stadium on Saturday.
Many are concerned that Penn State’s offense is struggling. We don’t agree. They haven’t been putting up 40+ PPG as they were earlier, however much of that is due to the defenses they have faced. Ohio State held them to 13 and the Bucks are excellent on defense. Iowa held them to 23, however PSU had five scoring opportunities in the red zone but settled for field goals. They simply weren’t efficient @ Iowa. Last week they were in gigantic letdown mode vs. Indiana after their first loss of the season @ Iowa. They only scored 10 points in the first half before snapping out of their “haze” and rolling to a 34-7 win. With the shock of their first loss now two weeks behind them and smell of roses right in front of them, this will be the PSU team we saw a month ago. They will ROLL to a big win vs. a vastly over rated Michigan State team.
Best of Luck, Lee.
TITLE: 10* CFB Midwest Game - 82% lifetime!!
REASON FOR PICK: PLAY ON 10* College FB Midwest Game of year - Penn State (-) vs. Michigan State, 3:30 PM EST $75.00
The Nittany Lions are playing for the right to go to their first Rose Bowl since 1994. Their calling it the biggest game in Beaver Stadium since PSU joined the Big Ten back in 1993. It’s also Senior Day for 17 players on the Penn State team and they can be the first class to win two Big Ten titles (they earned one in 2005 also). On top of that, tickets are going for astronomical prices as many believe this could be Joe Paterno’s final home game as head coach. Of course that is all speculation, however either way the atmosphere will be beyond electric.
Now to the game on the field. We feel that PSU is the FAR superior team here and apparently so do the odds makers who’ve made them a two TD chalk, despite the fact that MSU is also playing for a share of the conference title. However, a PSU win puts them in the Rose Bowl while if the Spartans win (they won’t) they also need Michigan to win at Ohio State for them to jet off to California. That won’t happen either. Penn State has huge advantages on BOTH sides of the ball here. On offense they are averaging 442 yards per game (6.39 yards per play) ranking them 18th nationally. MSU puts up 355 YPG (just 5.11 yards per play) which puts them in the bottom half of all college teams at 66th. The defensive side of the ball is a very similar story. The Nittany Lions are in the top 10 in EVERY major defensive category (yards allowed, rushing yards allowed, passing yards allowed and points allowed). Penn State is 4th nationally in overall defense giving up just 258 total yards (4.15 yards per play). The Spartans give up 340 yards per game (5.04 yards per play) which is again middle of the pack in the NCAA. Thus in the yards per play differential PSU is a great +2.24 while MSU is a very mediocre +0.07. That’s quite a large disparity with basically and entire season of statistics.
While the Spartans are 9-2, we’ve been rather unimpressed for the most part. While they have won six of their seven conference games, MSU has actually been out gained in four of those seven games. The only teams they have out yarded in conference play were Michigan, Purdue and Indiana who just happen to sit at 9th, 10th and 11th place in the conference going into this weekend. Their Big Ten road schedule has been very easy for the most part. Their three conference road games have come at Indiana, Michigan and Northwestern. The Spartans win at Northwestern was a gift as the Wildcats lost despite out gaining MSU by 162 total yards.
This Spartan team is carried by their running game. RB Javon Ringer is very good, but he is really starting to wear down late in the season. Watching him against Wisconsin a few weeks ago, he simply doesn’t have the burst he had earlier in the year and it’s not even close. That’s what happens when a team leans on a tailback to carry the ball 30+ times each game. He had just 54 yards on 21 carries in that game vs. the Badgers. He cracked the 100-yard barrier in his most recent game vs. Purdue, however he only averaged 3.7 yards per carry in that game. And that was against a Boilermaker defense that ranks 96th in the nation in rush defense. Now he faces a top 10 rush defense on the road. We realize that MSU had two weeks off, however that isn’t enough time to recoup from getting beat up for 11 straight games. To push the point home even more, MSU has actually been out rushed in 4 of their last 6 games and they have somehow gotten by because of the level of competition and mistakes by the opposition. Not here. They don’t want to rely on QB Brian Hoyer who has completed just 49% of his passes this year but they will have to in this game. MSU’s luck runs out at Beaver Stadium on Saturday.
Many are concerned that Penn State’s offense is struggling. We don’t agree. They haven’t been putting up 40+ PPG as they were earlier, however much of that is due to the defenses they have faced. Ohio State held them to 13 and the Bucks are excellent on defense. Iowa held them to 23, however PSU had five scoring opportunities in the red zone but settled for field goals. They simply weren’t efficient @ Iowa. Last week they were in gigantic letdown mode vs. Indiana after their first loss of the season @ Iowa. They only scored 10 points in the first half before snapping out of their “haze” and rolling to a 34-7 win. With the shock of their first loss now two weeks behind them and smell of roses right in front of them, this will be the PSU team we saw a month ago. They will ROLL to a big win vs. a vastly over rated Michigan State team.
Best of Luck, Lee.
DOC
5 Unit Play.Take Purdue Boilermakers -11 over Indiana Hoosiers
Purdue 42, Indiana 17.
4 Unit Play.Take Michigan State Spartans +14 over Penn State Nittany Lions
Penn State 20, Michigan State 17.
4 Unit Play.Take NC State Wolf Pack +11 over North Carolina Tar Heels
UNC 24, NC State 21.
4 Unit Play.Take Notre Dame Fighting Irish -20 over Syracuse Orange
Utah 38, BYU 24.
4 Unit Play.Take Ole Miss Rebels +4 over LSU Tigers
Ole Miss 28, LSU 24<!-- / message -->
5 Unit Play.Take Purdue Boilermakers -11 over Indiana Hoosiers
Purdue 42, Indiana 17.
4 Unit Play.Take Michigan State Spartans +14 over Penn State Nittany Lions
Penn State 20, Michigan State 17.
4 Unit Play.Take NC State Wolf Pack +11 over North Carolina Tar Heels
UNC 24, NC State 21.
4 Unit Play.Take Notre Dame Fighting Irish -20 over Syracuse Orange
Utah 38, BYU 24.
4 Unit Play.Take Ole Miss Rebels +4 over LSU Tigers
Ole Miss 28, LSU 24<!-- / message -->
LEROY's MONEY TALKS INVIATIONAL
Fat Jack: (5-2 first round)
1) #172 Utah -7
2) #143 Colorado State -2
3) #175 Oregon State +2 1/2
4) #136 Kansas State -9 1/2
5) #137 Tennessee +3
6) #156 Penn State -15
Best Bet: #154 Oklahoma -6 1/2
Lee Sterling: (4-3 first round)
1) #171 BYU +7
2) #141 Akron -2 1/2
3) #161 Stanford +9
4) #121 Pitt +6
5) #133 N.C. State +11
6) #201 New England +1
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Fat Jack: (5-2 first round)
1) #172 Utah -7
2) #143 Colorado State -2
3) #175 Oregon State +2 1/2
4) #136 Kansas State -9 1/2
5) #137 Tennessee +3
6) #156 Penn State -15
Best Bet: #154 Oklahoma -6 1/2
Lee Sterling: (4-3 first round)
1) #171 BYU +7
2) #141 Akron -2 1/2
3) #161 Stanford +9
4) #121 Pitt +6
5) #133 N.C. State +11
6) #201 New England +1
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Golden Contender
Saturday system club play
<!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->Saturday system club pay courtesy of selectivesportssystems.These plays have a nice 9-2 record so far this year.The Saturday system club play is In conference Usa action we have a solid 32-5 system that plays on the Memphis tigers here on Saturday game 180 at 2pm eastern.What were gonna do here is play on any game 6 or later home fav up to -23 off a win vs an opponent off 1 exact road win as a dog of +2 or more.Memphis also qualifies in a solid rest system coming off a bye. the system also pertains to UCF win last week.Look for Memphis to avenge a blowout loss from last year and keep there slim bowl hopes alive.Id be shocked if a team like ucf could go on the road in back to back weeks and steal 2 games,this late in the season with nothing on the line.For those looking for a solid card most games go at night including the 96% 5 unit system play.Back the memphis tigers here.--BOL GC-
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Saturday system club play
<!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->Saturday system club pay courtesy of selectivesportssystems.These plays have a nice 9-2 record so far this year.The Saturday system club play is In conference Usa action we have a solid 32-5 system that plays on the Memphis tigers here on Saturday game 180 at 2pm eastern.What were gonna do here is play on any game 6 or later home fav up to -23 off a win vs an opponent off 1 exact road win as a dog of +2 or more.Memphis also qualifies in a solid rest system coming off a bye. the system also pertains to UCF win last week.Look for Memphis to avenge a blowout loss from last year and keep there slim bowl hopes alive.Id be shocked if a team like ucf could go on the road in back to back weeks and steal 2 games,this late in the season with nothing on the line.For those looking for a solid card most games go at night including the 96% 5 unit system play.Back the memphis tigers here.--BOL GC-
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Norm Hitzges
Double Plays
TCU -19.5 vs Air Force
Notre Dame -20 vs Syracuse
Mississippi +4 vs LSU
Nevada +6 vs Boise
Ohio State -20.5 vs Michigan
Single Plays
UAB +6.5 vs East Carolina
Rice -9 vs Marshall
NC State +11 vs North Carolina
Florida State -1 vs Maryland
Vanderbilt -3 vs Tennessee
Memphis -5 vs UCF
Tulsa -28.5 vs Tulane
Florida Atlantic +4.5 vs Arkansas St
Floirda International -6.5 vs ULaMonroe
Stanford +9 vs California
Hawaii -23.5 vs Idaho
Iowa State +9.5 vs Kansas State
UNLV -11 vs San Diego State
Texas Tech +7 vs Oklahoma
Arizona -2.5 vs Oregon State
UConn +3 vs South Florida
Double Plays
TCU -19.5 vs Air Force
Notre Dame -20 vs Syracuse
Mississippi +4 vs LSU
Nevada +6 vs Boise
Ohio State -20.5 vs Michigan
Single Plays
UAB +6.5 vs East Carolina
Rice -9 vs Marshall
NC State +11 vs North Carolina
Florida State -1 vs Maryland
Vanderbilt -3 vs Tennessee
Memphis -5 vs UCF
Tulsa -28.5 vs Tulane
Florida Atlantic +4.5 vs Arkansas St
Floirda International -6.5 vs ULaMonroe
Stanford +9 vs California
Hawaii -23.5 vs Idaho
Iowa State +9.5 vs Kansas State
UNLV -11 vs San Diego State
Texas Tech +7 vs Oklahoma
Arizona -2.5 vs Oregon State
UConn +3 vs South Florida
Big Al
At 12 Noon, on Saturday, our member selection is on the Michigan Wolverines plus the points over Ohio State. This is certainly one of the current Top 3 rivalries -- if not the overall #1 rivalry. And, absent any worthwhile statistics to the contrary, I'll always take a shot with a revenging underdog in a huge rivalry game. In this series, revenging underdogs are a solid 10-6 ATS since 1980, including 7-1 ATS when getting more than 4 points. Take Michigan. Good luck, as always...Al
At 12 Noon, on Saturday, our member selection is on the Virginia Cavaliers plus the points over Clemson. Last week, UVa dropped its second straight game, 28-17 at Wake Forest, and Al Groh's men are now 5-5 on the year. Clemson also is 5-5, and the winner of this game will have achieved Bowl Eligibility status. Let's play on the Cavaliers here, as Virginia is 17-1 ATS at home vs. ACC Conference foes, provided Virginia lost its previous game, did not cover the spread in that loss, and is now NOT laying 3 or more points. Take Virginia. Good luck, as always...Al
At 3:30 pm, on Saturday, our member selection is on the Penn State Nittany Lions over Michigan State. The Spartans come into this afternoon's ballgame off 3 consecutive Big 10 Conference wins, but teams off three straight conference wins are a poor 83-147 ATS since 1980, if they're on the road against an opponent off a SU win, in which it scored more than 30 points. With PSU in off a 34-7 victory last week against Indiana, we'll take Joe Paterno's men to blow out MSU on Saturday. Good luck, as always...Al
At 12 Noon, on Saturday, our member selection is on the Michigan Wolverines plus the points over Ohio State. This is certainly one of the current Top 3 rivalries -- if not the overall #1 rivalry. And, absent any worthwhile statistics to the contrary, I'll always take a shot with a revenging underdog in a huge rivalry game. In this series, revenging underdogs are a solid 10-6 ATS since 1980, including 7-1 ATS when getting more than 4 points. Take Michigan. Good luck, as always...Al
At 12 Noon, on Saturday, our member selection is on the Virginia Cavaliers plus the points over Clemson. Last week, UVa dropped its second straight game, 28-17 at Wake Forest, and Al Groh's men are now 5-5 on the year. Clemson also is 5-5, and the winner of this game will have achieved Bowl Eligibility status. Let's play on the Cavaliers here, as Virginia is 17-1 ATS at home vs. ACC Conference foes, provided Virginia lost its previous game, did not cover the spread in that loss, and is now NOT laying 3 or more points. Take Virginia. Good luck, as always...Al
At 3:30 pm, on Saturday, our member selection is on the Penn State Nittany Lions over Michigan State. The Spartans come into this afternoon's ballgame off 3 consecutive Big 10 Conference wins, but teams off three straight conference wins are a poor 83-147 ATS since 1980, if they're on the road against an opponent off a SU win, in which it scored more than 30 points. With PSU in off a 34-7 victory last week against Indiana, we'll take Joe Paterno's men to blow out MSU on Saturday. Good luck, as always...Al
Al DeMarco
Saturday's Pick
10 Dime - Arizona
You might recall that last week in this space I had told you to back Oregon State as my PAC-10 Game of the Year at home against California. Although the Beavers delivered with a 34-21 win, recovering from an early 7-0 deficit, I was surprised that the game was that close considering they were playing in Corvallis and the Golden Bears had been struggling offensively because of quarterback issues.
No doubt Oregon State has dominated this series, but then again, this is the best and most competitive team Arizona has fielded in a number of years. Yes, the Wildcats are coming off a 55-45 loss at Oregon last Saturday, a game they trailed 48-17 early before making an aborted comeback bid. To be honest, their rally didn't impress me at all because the Ducks simply relaxed after taking such a big first-half lead. Look for S. Mingee to have a standout performance and gain much support from the home fans. Clearly Arizona came out with a lack of focus after become bowl eligible a week earlier with a road win versus Washington State.
So why the change of heart on my part on week later regarding Oregon State? Keep in mind the Beavers' two wins this season on the road came against Washington and UCLA, two teams that are a combined 4-16 SU this season. Plus, this game is being played on a grass field, which will affect their biggest asset offensively: their speed.
Arizona is a much better team at home than on the road, going 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS in Tucson this season where they've covered by a combined 79.5 points. Their two best performances came in league games against Southern Cal (a hard-fought 17-10 loss) and California (a 42-27 win that wasn't as close as the final score indicated). Note that was the same Cal team that Oregon State struggled with at home last Saturday.
Oregon State's defense is coming off a five-sack performance - their third in five games - against California, but Arizona quarterback Willie Tuitama (328 yards, 2 TDs vs. Oregon last week; 2,321 yards, 18 TDs this season) has the mobility to keep the pass rush at bay. And unlike previous seasons, he's getting ground support from the likes of Nic Grigsby, who has rushed for 941 yards to pace the PAC-10's second-ranked scoring offense, a unit that averages 39.7 points a game.
Expect a high-scoring game with the Wildcats prevailing in a shooting in the desert by seven.
Saturday's Pick
10 Dime - Arizona
You might recall that last week in this space I had told you to back Oregon State as my PAC-10 Game of the Year at home against California. Although the Beavers delivered with a 34-21 win, recovering from an early 7-0 deficit, I was surprised that the game was that close considering they were playing in Corvallis and the Golden Bears had been struggling offensively because of quarterback issues.
No doubt Oregon State has dominated this series, but then again, this is the best and most competitive team Arizona has fielded in a number of years. Yes, the Wildcats are coming off a 55-45 loss at Oregon last Saturday, a game they trailed 48-17 early before making an aborted comeback bid. To be honest, their rally didn't impress me at all because the Ducks simply relaxed after taking such a big first-half lead. Look for S. Mingee to have a standout performance and gain much support from the home fans. Clearly Arizona came out with a lack of focus after become bowl eligible a week earlier with a road win versus Washington State.
So why the change of heart on my part on week later regarding Oregon State? Keep in mind the Beavers' two wins this season on the road came against Washington and UCLA, two teams that are a combined 4-16 SU this season. Plus, this game is being played on a grass field, which will affect their biggest asset offensively: their speed.
Arizona is a much better team at home than on the road, going 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS in Tucson this season where they've covered by a combined 79.5 points. Their two best performances came in league games against Southern Cal (a hard-fought 17-10 loss) and California (a 42-27 win that wasn't as close as the final score indicated). Note that was the same Cal team that Oregon State struggled with at home last Saturday.
Oregon State's defense is coming off a five-sack performance - their third in five games - against California, but Arizona quarterback Willie Tuitama (328 yards, 2 TDs vs. Oregon last week; 2,321 yards, 18 TDs this season) has the mobility to keep the pass rush at bay. And unlike previous seasons, he's getting ground support from the likes of Nic Grigsby, who has rushed for 941 yards to pace the PAC-10's second-ranked scoring offense, a unit that averages 39.7 points a game.
Expect a high-scoring game with the Wildcats prevailing in a shooting in the desert by seven.
