Kelso's pick for Saturday is Oklahoma. Here is the write up.
Personal Best Club
College Game Of The Month
100 Units
OKLAHOMA (-21) over Nebraska
Prediction: Oklahoma by 35
Starting Time: 8:00
TV: ESPN
Weather in Norman: Clear, with game-time temperature of 72 degrees, relative humidity of 43% and with wind out of the SSE at 5 MPH.
Comments: The biggest single issue in releasing Oklahoma as a 100-unit play is the fact the Sooners (7-1) still have a chance to play for the national championship and they can showcase themselves tonight on national television. The Sooners will show every one just how good they are and you can take it to the bank Oklahoma coach Bob Stoops will show absolutely no mercy to his good friend, Nebraska coach Bo Pelini. That is just the beginning of the handicapping process in this one. My figures say there is no way Nebraska (5-3) is going to be able to keep up with the no huddle offense of Oklahoma. The Sooners run it with perfection and have used it to rip apart better teams than Nebraska this season. In breaking down the game element by element it is difficult to find any factor other than special teams where the Cornhuskers have any edge. Oklahoma is an incentive-drive team tonight and will turn all the big guns lose in a game that should be a monster blowout.
Personal Best Club
College Game Of The Month
100 Units
OKLAHOMA (-21) over Nebraska
Prediction: Oklahoma by 35
Starting Time: 8:00
TV: ESPN
Weather in Norman: Clear, with game-time temperature of 72 degrees, relative humidity of 43% and with wind out of the SSE at 5 MPH.
Comments: The biggest single issue in releasing Oklahoma as a 100-unit play is the fact the Sooners (7-1) still have a chance to play for the national championship and they can showcase themselves tonight on national television. The Sooners will show every one just how good they are and you can take it to the bank Oklahoma coach Bob Stoops will show absolutely no mercy to his good friend, Nebraska coach Bo Pelini. That is just the beginning of the handicapping process in this one. My figures say there is no way Nebraska (5-3) is going to be able to keep up with the no huddle offense of Oklahoma. The Sooners run it with perfection and have used it to rip apart better teams than Nebraska this season. In breaking down the game element by element it is difficult to find any factor other than special teams where the Cornhuskers have any edge. Oklahoma is an incentive-drive team tonight and will turn all the big guns lose in a game that should be a monster blowout.
Vic Monte
2008 College & Pro Football
30-22-1 ~ +3255 Stars
11/1
500* Over Texas (73)
500* Lsu - 26.5
500*...................6-1 ~ +2450 Stars
200*...................8-4 ~ +720 Stars
100*...................9-6-1 ~ +240 Stars
50*.....................7-11 ~ -255 Stars
30*.....................0-0 ~ +0 Stars
20*.....................0-0 ~ +0 Stars
<!-- / message -->
2008 College & Pro Football
30-22-1 ~ +3255 Stars
11/1
500* Over Texas (73)
500* Lsu - 26.5
500*...................6-1 ~ +2450 Stars
200*...................8-4 ~ +720 Stars
100*...................9-6-1 ~ +240 Stars
50*.....................7-11 ~ -255 Stars
30*.....................0-0 ~ +0 Stars
20*.....................0-0 ~ +0 Stars
<!-- / message -->
ROCKBOXSPORTS
3 STAR SELECTION: Virginia -2
Cavaliers looked horrible in early blowout losses but they've very quietly turned things around, winners of four in a row. Miami is the sexier pick here but Virginia is getting very good quarterback play and is the more mature team.
3 STAR SELECTION: Georgia Tech -2.5
Florida State struggles against the run and now they get their first dose of GT's tricky option attack. Noles are talented but young and undisciplined- precisely the type of team that the option feasts on.
2 STAR SELECTION: Kent State +6.5
As we predicted, Golden Flashes had a breakout game on offense last week. Look for them to stay hot this week and quite possibly post another outright win as a live dog.
2 STAR SELECTION: Ole Miss -6.5
Auburn and Ole Miss heading in very different directions. Houston Nutt's Rebels are a good young team on the rise while Auburn has gone completely off the rails. Tuberville and co. have failed to cover for seven straight weeks. Ole Miss is hungry for a bowl this year and we think they'll take a step in that direction this week.
2 STAR SELECTION:Stanford -30
Laying 30 points with Stanford? Never thought I'd see the day. However, if you're a follower of the Rock Box you know we've been saying early on that this Washington State team is epically atrocious. Wazzu has not covered a spread yet, and we (and hopefully you) have benefitted by going against them with regularity- including laying 43 with USC and watching the Trojans cover easily. Stanford is a respectable Pac-10 team and they're angry and restless after a gut-wrenching loss to UCLA two weeks back. Cardinal wants to taste bowl season desperately and no reason to think they won't pad their resume and introduce the hapless Cougs to the local woodshed. We have gone against Wash State and won every week and will continue to do so until they prove they can cover a spread.
1 STAR SELECTIONS: Wisconsin +5.5; Miss/Auburn OVER 42; Cal -3; USC -46; UAB +8
3 STAR SELECTION: Virginia -2
Cavaliers looked horrible in early blowout losses but they've very quietly turned things around, winners of four in a row. Miami is the sexier pick here but Virginia is getting very good quarterback play and is the more mature team.
3 STAR SELECTION: Georgia Tech -2.5
Florida State struggles against the run and now they get their first dose of GT's tricky option attack. Noles are talented but young and undisciplined- precisely the type of team that the option feasts on.
2 STAR SELECTION: Kent State +6.5
As we predicted, Golden Flashes had a breakout game on offense last week. Look for them to stay hot this week and quite possibly post another outright win as a live dog.
2 STAR SELECTION: Ole Miss -6.5
Auburn and Ole Miss heading in very different directions. Houston Nutt's Rebels are a good young team on the rise while Auburn has gone completely off the rails. Tuberville and co. have failed to cover for seven straight weeks. Ole Miss is hungry for a bowl this year and we think they'll take a step in that direction this week.
2 STAR SELECTION:Stanford -30
Laying 30 points with Stanford? Never thought I'd see the day. However, if you're a follower of the Rock Box you know we've been saying early on that this Washington State team is epically atrocious. Wazzu has not covered a spread yet, and we (and hopefully you) have benefitted by going against them with regularity- including laying 43 with USC and watching the Trojans cover easily. Stanford is a respectable Pac-10 team and they're angry and restless after a gut-wrenching loss to UCLA two weeks back. Cardinal wants to taste bowl season desperately and no reason to think they won't pad their resume and introduce the hapless Cougs to the local woodshed. We have gone against Wash State and won every week and will continue to do so until they prove they can cover a spread.
1 STAR SELECTIONS: Wisconsin +5.5; Miss/Auburn OVER 42; Cal -3; USC -46; UAB +8
WILD BILL
Central Mich +2 1/2 (5 units)
Iowa +1 1/2 (5 units)
Auburn +6 (5 units)
San Diego St +3 1/2 (5 units)
Georgia +5 1/2 (5 units)
Texas Tech +6 1/2 (5 units)
BYU -14 1/2 (5 units)
Wash St +30 (5 units)
Kentucky +3 (5 units)
Florida St +2 (5 units)
TCU -14 (5 units)
Rice -2 (5 units)
Ark St +24 (5 units)
Under 50 Iowa-Illini (5 units)
Over 65 Iowa St-Okie State (5 units)
Arkansas +7 (5 units)
Over 38 Tenn-South Carolina (5 units)
Over 56 1/2 Georgia-Fla (5 units)
Over 64 1/2 Oregon-Cal (5 units)
Under 71 1/2 Nebraska-Oklahoma (5 units)
Over 55 BYU-Colorado St (5 units)
Over 54 Boise-N M State (5 units)
Central Mich +2 1/2 (5 units)
Iowa +1 1/2 (5 units)
Auburn +6 (5 units)
San Diego St +3 1/2 (5 units)
Georgia +5 1/2 (5 units)
Texas Tech +6 1/2 (5 units)
BYU -14 1/2 (5 units)
Wash St +30 (5 units)
Kentucky +3 (5 units)
Florida St +2 (5 units)
TCU -14 (5 units)
Rice -2 (5 units)
Ark St +24 (5 units)
Under 50 Iowa-Illini (5 units)
Over 65 Iowa St-Okie State (5 units)
Arkansas +7 (5 units)
Over 38 Tenn-South Carolina (5 units)
Over 56 1/2 Georgia-Fla (5 units)
Over 64 1/2 Oregon-Cal (5 units)
Under 71 1/2 Nebraska-Oklahoma (5 units)
Over 55 BYU-Colorado St (5 units)
Over 54 Boise-N M State (5 units)
SPORTS ADVISORS
(1) Texas (8-0, 7-1 ATS) at (6) Texas Tech (8-0, 3-3 ATS)
The marquee game on the schedule takes place in Lubbock, Texas, tonight, where the top-ranked Longhorns face their fourth consecutive Top 11 conference opponent when they battle Texas Tech in a showdown for Big 12 South supremacy.
Texas has survived a murderous schedule over the past month, first defeating then-No. 1 Oklahoma 45-35 as a seven-point underdog in Dallas, then pummeling No. 11 Missouri 56-31 as a four-point home favorite before holding on to win last week’s 28-24 thriller against No. 6 Oklahoma State, falling short as an 11½-point favorite in that one. In last Saturday’s win over the Cowboys, the Longhorns rolled up 504 total yards, but gave up 416 and got outrushed 217-113.
Texas Tech prepped for this showdown by going to Lawrence, Kan., last week and throttling Kansas 63-21 as a one-point road underdog. Star QB Graham Harrell (34-for-42, 386 yards, 5 TDs, 0 INTs) was near perfect as the Red Raiders outgained the Jayhawks 556-315 and forced five turnovers.
These teams are tied atop the Big 12 South standings at 4-0, with Texas cashing in all four games while the Red Raiders are 2-2 ATS in league play.
The Longhorns hammered Texas Tech 59-43 last year, easily covering as a 6½-point home favorite. Texas has won the last five meetings and eight of the last nine, going 6-3 ATS during this stretch (3-1 ATS in the last four). However, the underdog is 4-2 ATS in the past six battles, and the host is 7-3 ATS in the last 10.
Two of the nation’s top offenses go at it in this one. Texas Tech ranks third in the nation in scoring (48 ppg), second in total offense (556.9 ypg), first in passing offense (418.4 ypg) and third in passing touchdowns (29). Texas is fifth in scoring (45.6 ppg) and ninth in total offense (486.5 ypg), but the Longhorns have a more balanced attack that gets it done both through the air (303 passing ypg) and on the ground (183.4 rushing ypg).
The quarterbacks are the key to both of these offenses. Texas’ Colt McCoy is completing an astounding 82 percent of his passes – tops in the nation – for 2,285 yards with 21 TDs and four INTs, and he’s also rushed for 412 yards and seven touchdowns. Tech’s Harrell, who ports a completion rate of 71 percent, leads the nation with 3,147 passing yards and his 28 TDs rank third nationally, and he’s thrown just five picks. Harrell also has five rushing scores.
Defensively, Texas rates a slight edge, giving up 18.4 points and 334.8 yards per game, including 69.2 rushing ypg, which is the third-lowest total in the nation. Meanwhile, the Red Raiders yield 21 points and 346.5 total yards per contest (101 rushing ypg).
Not only have the Longhorns cashed in seven of their eight games this year, but they’re on spread-covering streaks of 10-2 overall, 4-0 on the road (3-0 this year) and 19-9-2 in November. Texas Tech has won 24 of its last 30 home games in November and is on ATS runs of 13-6 as a home underdog and 6-2-1 on artificial turf, but the Red Raiders are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five following a spread-cover.
Not surprisingly, the scoreboard lights up when these schools get together, as the over is 5-1 in the last six meetings overall and 5-1 in the last six clashes in Lubbock. The over is also 4-1 in Texas’ last five overall, 5-1 in its last six on the road, 6-1 in its last seven conference games and 4-1 in its last five in November. However, Texas Tech has stayed under the total in six straight home games.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TEXAS and OVER
(5) Florida (6-1 SU and ATS) vs. (8) Georgia (7-1, 3-4 ATS)
(at Jacksonville, Fla.)
First place in the SEC East is on the line today in Jacksonville, where Florida and Georgia battle it out in the annual World’s Largest Cocktail Party, with the loser knocked out of the national championship race.
The Gators pummeled Kentucky 63-5 a week ago, easily covering as a 25-point home favorite to improve to 3-0 SU and ATS since their stunning home loss to Ole Miss back on Sept. 27. During the three-game streak, Florida has outscored the opposition 152-33 while averaging 478.3 total yards per game and allowing just 316.7 ypg.
Like the Gators, Georgia has rebounded from its only defeat – a 41-30 home loss to Alabama – with three straight wins, the most impressive being last week’s 52-38 drubbing of LSU in Baton Rouge. The Bulldogs cashed in the pick-em contest to snap a three-game ATS slide, and even though they got outgained 497-443 against the Tigers, they snared three interceptions, two of which were returned for touchdowns. Also, RB Knowshon Moreno rushed for a career-high 188 yards and three TDs.
These teams are tied atop the SEC East standings at 4-1, one game ahead of Vanderbilt.
The Bulldogs thumped Florida 42-30 as a seven-point underdog in last year’s meeting, finishing with a 413-343 yard edge in total offense (196-107 in rushing). Prior to last year’s contest, the Gators had won two in a row and eight of the previous nine clashes, though the Dawgs are 3-1 ATS in the last four. Finally, the underdog has been the play in five of the last seven series battles.
Both explosive offenses are guided by solid junior quarterbacks. Florida’s Tim Tebow, the reigning Heisman Trophy winner, is completing 63.4 percent of his passes for 1,415 yards with 12 TDs and two INTs to along with 227 rushing yards and five additional scores. Meanwhile, Bulldogs QB Matthew Stafford is connecting on 61.6 percent of his throws for 1,946 yards with 12 TDs and four INTs.
Overall, the Gators are putting up 42 points and 410.3 total yards per game (196 rushing ypg) and giving up 12 points and 273.4 total yards (102.7 rushing ypg). Georgia puts up 34.2 points and 431.2 total yards per outing (172.5 rushing ypg) while yielding 20.2 points and 298.1 yards per contest (77 rushing ypg).
Florida enters this showdown on ATS streaks of 9-1 in regular-season action, 6-1 in SEC play, 4-0 in November and 10-3 versus winning teams. Meanwhile, Georgia sports pointspread streaks of 7-3-1- overall, 4-1-1 in November, 4-0 in neutral-site contests, 7-2 as an underdog since 2005 and 7-2 against a winning team.
For the Gators, the over is on streaks of 11-4 overall, 8-2 in SEC action, 14-5 on grass and 4-0 at neutral sites. The over is also 6-2 in Georgia’s last eight at neutral venues. On the flip side, the under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings between these bitter rivals, though last year’s contest easily topped the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Miami, Fla. (5-3, 3-4 ATS) at Virginia (5-3, 4-3 ATS)
Two teams on the rise in the ACC standings square off at Scott Stadium in Charlottesville, Va., when the Hurricanes come calling on the Cavaliers.
Miami got a 16-10 home win over Wake Forest a week ago as a three-point favorite, the team’s third straight victory and second consecutive spread-cover. The ‘Canes blanked Wake Forest in the second half and rallied from a 10-3 halftime deficit to get the win, holding the Demon Deacons to just 252 total yards (57 passing). For the season, Miami is allowing 279.6 yards per game (110.5 rushing ypg).
Since an embarrassing 31-3 loss at Duke on Sept. 27, Virginia has rattled off four straight victories (4-0 ATS), capped by last week’s surprising 24-17 win at Georgia Tech as a two-touchdown road ‘dog. The Cavaliers now sit in first place in the ACC’s Coastal Division, led by an offense that is averaging 26.5 points and 382 yards per contest during its winning streak after scoring a total of 36 points in its first four games. Virginia’s defense leads the conference with 23 sacks, 10 of them coming from linebacker Clint Sintim, who lead the ACC in that category.
Virginia crushed Miami in South Beach a year ago, winning 48-0 as a four-point underdog to deal the Hurricanes their worst shutout loss in Orange Bowl history on the final game in the old stadium. It was the second straight year the Cavs beat the ‘Canes and their third straight spread-cover in the rivalry. The last time the two met in Charlottesville was 2006 when Virginia got a 17-7 win as a three-point pup.
The Hurricanes are 4-0 ATS in their last four roadies, but otherwise they’re on ATS slides of 6-15-1 in ACC contests, 7-33 following a spread-cover and 3-7 in November contests. Virginia is 28-12 in its last 40 games in Charlottesville (4-1 last five), and all four of its victories and covers during its current winning steak have come against teams with a winning record.
The over is 5-2 in Miami’s last seven ACC games, 6-2 in its last eight on the road and 8-3 in its last 11 against winning teams, but the under is 20-7 in its last 27 November contests and 10-4 in its last 14 after a spread-cover. For the Cavaliers, the under is on runs of 4-1 overall, 9-3 in November games and a whopping 20-7-3 in its last 30 ACC contests.
ATS ADVANTAGE: VIRGINIA
West Virginia (5-2, 2-4 ATS) at Connecticut (6-2, 3-4 ATS)
The Mountaineers are looking for their fifth straight victory today when they make the trek to East Hartford, Conn. to take on Connecticut in a Big East battle.
West Virginia has had eight days off since beating Auburn 34-17 as a three-point home favorite. QB Patrick White threw for three TDs against the Tigers, but it was RB Noel Devine who did most of the damage, rushing for 207 yards on 17 carries and scoring on a 30-yard run late in the game to seal the win. West Virginia had a whopping 445-260 advantage in total yards and outrushed Auburn 271-149.
Connecticut rebounded from two road losses with a 40-16 home win over Cincinnati last Saturday, cashing as a three-point home ‘dog. QB Cody Endres threw for 196 yards, but RB Donald Brown II ignited the offense with 150 yards and two TDs on 29 carries. Both Endres and Zach Frazer took snaps with the first-team offense this week, and the starting QB for today’s matchup with the Mountaineers is uncertain.
West Virginia has destroyed UConn each of the last four years (4-0 ATS), including last year’s 66-21 home rout as a 21-point chalk. The closest the Huskies have come to beating the Mountaineers was back in 2004, when West Virginia 31-19 as a seven-point road chalk. The average margin of victory in the four meetings is 28.8 points per game.
The Mountaineers are on ATS slides of 1-5 in Big East games, 1-10 after a spread-cover and 1-4 after straight-up wins. On the flip side, Connecticut is on ATS runs of 16-5 at home, 7-1 as a home underdog, 8-2 in Big East action and 5-0 at home against teams with a winning home record.
It’s been all unders for West Virginia lately, including 4-1 in Big East contests, 20-7 against teams with a winning home record and 4-1 after a straight-up win. Conversely, the over is 4-1 in UConn’s last five at home. Finally, the total has alternated in the four all-time meetings between these schools, with last year’s contest easily soaring over the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: WEST VIRGINIA
Northwestern (6-2, 3-4 ATS) at (20) Minnesota (7-1, 6-1 ATS)
The Golden Gophers will try to keep their magical season going when Northwestern pays a visit to the Metrodome for a key Big Ten matchup.
Minnesota, who went 1-11 last season, have won seven of eight games in 2008 while getting the cash in each of its last six lined games. It’s the defense that has kept the Gophers close to the top of the conference, forcing 24 turnovers and giving up just 17.1 points per game. Last week, Minnesota downed Purdue 17-6 as a one-point road favorite, allowing just 109 passing yards, which was the Boilermakers’ lowest output in a game in 12 years.
Since reaching the cusp of the Top 25 a month ago, Northwestern has gone on to lose two of its last three, including last Saturday’s 21-19 setback at Indiana as a 7½-point road chalk. The Wildcats lost much more than the game, as senior RB Tyrell Sutton is now out the rest of the regular season with a wrist injury. Sutton had 3,772 rushing yards and 31 TDs in his career, while his replacement, Omar Conteh, has run for just 223 yards on 61 carries.
Minnesota has won three of the last four meetings in this rivalry, both SU and ATS, but dropped a 49-48 overtime decision at Northwestern last season, cashing as a 6½-point pup. The Gophers are 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings, including a 43-17 win as 13½-point favorites the last time Northwestern came into the Metrodome in 2004. Finally, the ‘dog has cashed in eight of the last nine series battles.
The Wildcats are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 after a straight-up loss and 5-1 ATS in their last six after a non-cover. But Northwestern is on slides of 1-4 ATS on the highway and 5-13 ATS in road games against teams with a winning home record. Meanwhile, in addition to its current 6-0 ATS run, Minnesota is on positive pointspread streaks of 6-0 in Big Ten play, 5-1 in November and 4-0 against winning teams.
For Northwestern, the under is on runs of 7-2 in November, 11-5 after a SU loss and 5-1 after a non-cover. Minnesota has stayed low in four of its last five games, but otherwise the over is on streaks of 20-6 in November and 27-10-1 at home. Finally, the over has been the play in three of the last four meetings in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MINNESOTA and OVER
(19) Tulsa (8-0, 6-1 ATS) at Arkansas (3-5, 3-4 ATS)
Tulsa steps out of Conference USA play when it travels to Arkansas needing a win to keep its BCS Bowl hopes alive.
The Golden Hurricane stumbled out of the gate in Sunday night’s home game against Central Florida, falling behind 19-14 at the half. But they got their top-ranked offense cranked up in the final 30 minutes, outscoring Central Florida 35-0 en route to a 49-19 win as a 23½-point chalk. Tulsa produced “just” 435 total yards, including 264 passing, but the defense stepped up in allowing just 187 total yards and forcing three turnovers.
With less than two minutes to play, Arkansas scored 10 points in 38 seconds last week against Ole Miss, but still came up short in a 23-21 home loss, covering as a 6½-point underdog. The Razorbacks have lost five of their last six games, but the last three were decided by a total of six points, and the Hogs cashed in each contest, all as an underdog.
These teams last met in 2003, when Arkansas rolled to a 45-13 victory, though Tulsa got the cash as a 36-point road underdog. The Razorbacks have won 16 consecutive meetings in this rivalry, with the last 10 going dating to 1985 being played on Arkansas’ home turf.
Tulsa leads the nation in both scoring offense (56.6 ppg) and total offense (624.7 total ypg), and despite an average game last week against Central Florida, QB David Johnson still is completing 68.3 percent of his passes for 332.6 yards per game with an NCAA-best 32 TDs against nine INTs. Meanwhile, despite scoring 25, 20 and 21 points the last three weeks, the Hogs are putting up just 19.1 points and 361.6 total yards per outing while allowing 32 points and 359.2 yards per game.
The Hurricane have cashed in seven of their last eight games dating to last season and are on additional pointspread streaks of 13-5 after a spread-cover and 10-4 in non-conference play. The Razorbacks are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 November contests, but they’re stuck in pointspread slumps of 1-3 at home this year, 1-5 as a home pup since 2005 and 2-8 outside of SEC play.
For Tulsa, the over is on runs of 4-1-1 overall, 5-1 in non-conference play and 5-2 in November, but the under is 6-0 in the team’s last six games on grass. For Arkansas, the over streaks include 8-3 at home, 5-1 in non-conference action, 11-5 on grass and 4-1 in November.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TULSA and OVER
Pittsburgh (5-2, 2-4-1 ATS) at Notre Dame (5-2 SU and ATS)
Notre Dame will try to secure its first winning season in three years when it hosts Pitt as this regional rivalry resumes for the first time since 2005.
The Irish bounced back from a heartbreaking 29-24 loss at North Carolina with last week’s 33-7 drubbing of Washington, easily getting the cash as a 10-point road favorite for their fourth consecutive spread-cover. Notre Dame had a ridiculous 459-124 edge in total offense last week, including a 252-26 advantage on the ground. Going back to last year, Charlie Weis’ team is on a 7-2 SU and ATS run, including five straight wins in South Bend (4-1 ATS).
The Panthers saw their five-game winning streak come to a halt in last week’s embarrassing 54-34 home loss to lowly Rutgers as a 9½-point home chalk, falling to 2-4-1 ATS in their last seven. Pitt actually had the edge in total offense (486-442) and held the ball for five more minutes than Rutgers, but the offense committed two turnovers and the defense allowed six touchdown passes.
These schools have squared off against each other 10 times since 1992, including five straight years from 2001-05. During this 10-meeting stretch, the Irish are 8-2 SU and ATS (4-1 SU and ATS) at home). The SU winner cashed in all 10 games.
Pitt is on ATS steaks of 6-2 on the highway and 5-1 as a road pup, both since last year. On the flip side, the Panthers are in pointspread nosedives of 1-7 in November, 1-4-1 in non-conference play and 4-8-1 after a non-cover. Meanwhile, despite its current positive ATS runs, Notre Dame is 1-4 ATS in its last five versus the Big East.
The under is 9-4 in Pitt’s last 13 overall and 13-6 in Notre Dame’s last 19 overall. However, the over is 5-2 in the Irish’s last seven in South Bend and 5-1 in their last six against the Big East.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NOTRE DAME
Nebraska (5-3, 4-4 ATS) at (4) Oklahoma (7-1, 5-2 ATS)
Oklahoma and Nebraska renew their storied rivalry for the first time since 2006 when the teams meet in Norman, Okla,, where the Sooners hope to keep their BCS title game hopes alive.
Oklahoma’s offense put on a show in the first half of last week’s game at Kansas State, scoring a school-record eight touchdowns and taking a 55-28 halftime lead en route to an easy 58-35 victory. The Sooners actually got outgained 550-528, but finished with a whopping 273-64 advantage in rushing. Bob Stoops’ offense has tallied a combined 103 points the last two weeks and is averaging 48.2 points and 542.1 total yards per game this season, scoring at least 35 in every game.
Nebraska evened its Big 12 record at 2-2 with last week’s 32-20 home victory over Baylor, but the Huskers failed to cover as a 13-point home favorite despite finishing with 147-yard edge in total offense (497-350). They have outgained their last three foes (Texas Tech, Iowa State and Baylor) by a total of 527 yards.
These rivals haven’t faced off since a three-year stretch from 2004-06, with Oklahoma winning all three contests and covering the spread in the past two. The most recent battle came in the 2006 Big 12 Championship game, and the Sooners rolled to a 21-7 victory as a 3½-point favorite. The chalk is on a 6-2 ATS roll in this rivalry.
Despite covering the number in two of its last three games, Nebraska is still just 6-13 ATS in its last 19 games overall. In addition, the Cornhuskers are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 on the highway (but 2-0 ATS this year), 4-9 ATS in their last 13 league games and 5-10 ATS in their last 15 as a road pup. Meanwhile, the Sooners have won 22 consecutive home games, going 13-7-1 ATS, including 12-4-1 in their last 17 in Norman (all as a favorite). OU is also on ATS tears of 5-2 in November and 15-7 following a spread-cover.
Oklahoma has topped the total in four straight games overall, six of its seven lined contests this season and four of its last five in Norman. Conversely, the Huskers are on under streaks of 5-2 overall, 7-2 on the road, 9-4 in Big 12 action and 6-1 when playing on grass. Also, the under is 4-1 in the last five Nebraska-Oklahoma battles.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OKLAHOMA and UNDER
(23) Oregon (6-2, 4-4 ATS) at California (5-2 SU and ATS)
Having climbed back into the Top 25 after consecutive victories, Oregon will now try to move up the rankings when it visits California in a key Pac-10 clash.
The Ducks followed up a sluggish 31-24 home win over UCLA by destroying Arizona State 54-20 as a three-point road favorite last week. Oregon, which has outgained nine of its last 10 opponents dating to last year, piled up 537 total yards (304 rushing) and allowed just 333 (107 rushing) and won easily despite committing three turnovers. Even though they got the cash last week, the Ducks are just 2-4 ATS in their last six outings (2-2 ATS on the road).
Cal bounced back from a 42-27 loss at Arizona with last week’s 41-20 home rout of UCLA, barely holding on to cover as an 18-point favorite. The Bears, who like Oregon have outgained nine of their last 10 foes, ran all over UCLA for 232 yards while holding the Bruins to 16 net rushing yards. The SU winner is 11-0 ATS in Cal’s last 11 games.
The Bears went to Autzen Stadium in Eugene, Ore., last year and surprised the Ducks 31-24 as a 6½-point road underdog, ending a four-game winning streak by the home team in this rivalry. Cal has won and covered the last two meetings after Oregon had gone 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS in the previous eight clashes.
Oregon is 12-4 ATS in its last 16 games on artificial turf and 14-7 in its last 21 when catching points, but only 1-4 ATS in its last five versus winning teams. Meanwhile, the Bears ended last season in a 1-7 ATS funk, but they’ve cashed in six of their eight games this year, including all four at home. However, they’re still 3-8 ATS in their last 11 conference contests and 0-6 ATS in their last six November outings.
The under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings between these schools. However, the over is 4-1-2 in Oregon’s last seven games overall, 5-1-1 in its last seven on turf, 6-2 in Cal’s last eight overall and 13-6 in Cal’s last 19 at home.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Wisconsin (4-4, 3-5 ATS) at (22) Michigan State (7-2, 5-3 ATS)
Wisconsin tries for consecutive victories for the first time since starting the season 3-0 when it travels to Michigan State for a Big Ten contest.
The Badgers snapped a four-game SU and ATS losing skid – all in Big Ten play – with last Saturday’s come-from-behind 27-17 victory over Illinois as a 2½-point home underdog. Wisconsin outrushed the Illini 163-88, and the defense picked off Illinois QB Juice Williams three times en route to the team’s first league victory of the season.
Michigan State bounced back from an embarrassing 45-7 home loss to Ohio State with last week’s 35-21 trouncing of Michigan, cashing as a 3½-point road chalk. The Spartans enjoyed a 473-252 edge in total offense and forced four turnovers, but lost three fumbles. Michigan State is on a 7-1 roll (5-2 ATS), going 3-1 (2-2 ATS) in Big Ten play.
The SU winner is 7-0 ATS in Wisconsin’s last seven games and 7-2 ATS in Michigan State’s nine contests this year.
The host has taken the last three meetings in this rivalry dating to 2003. Last year, Wisconsin prevailed 37-34, but the Spartans got the cash as a seven-point road underdog.
The Badgers are on ATS slides of 6-13 overall, 1-8 on the highway and 1-5 in league games. As for the Spartans, they’re 8-3 ATS in their last 11 after a SU win and 5-2 ATS in their last seven in Big Ten, but they’re mired in pointspread funks of 5-12 in November and 7-17 at home.
The over is on runs of 6-2 for Wisconsin in Big Ten play, 4-1 for Wisconsin in November, 4-1 for Michigan State overall, 8-1 for Michigan State in conference and 15-7-2 for Michigan State in November action. Finally, each of the last five series meetings have topped the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
(16) Florida State (6-1, 3-2 ATS) at Georgia Tech (6-2, 5-1 ATS)
Florida State hopes to maintain at least a share of first place in the ACC Atlantic Division when it hits the road for a league game at Georgia Tech.
The Seminoles opened conference play with a disappointing 12-3 home loss to Wake Forest on Sept. 20, but they’ve bounced back to win four in a row (3-1 ATS). Last week, Florida State rallied to beat Virginia Tech 30-20, covering as a 6½-point home favorite. Bobby Bowden’s club is 3-1 in ACC play (2-2 ATS), tied with Maryland for first place in the Atlantic Division.
Georgia Tech’s four-game SU and five-game ATS winning streaks came to a stunning halt a week ago in a 24-17 loss to Virginia, even though the Yellow Jackets were a 14-point home favorite. They gave up 396 total yards (270 passing) and mustered just 259 on offense (103 passing) in falling into second place in the ACC’s Coastal Division at 3-2 (4-1 ATS).
These teams last met in 2003, with Florida State eking out a 14-13 victory but never threatening to cash as a 24-point home chalk. The Seminoles have won 12 in a row in this rivalry, but after cashing in five straight from 1994-98, FSU is just 1-3-1 ATS in the last five battles with Georgia Tech – with those five contests decided by an average of six points per game.
Despite its recent pointspread successes, the ‘Noles are still just 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 November games and 7-15 ATS in their last 22 following a SU victory. Meanwhile, the Yellow Jackets are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 following a non-cover, but 2-5 ATS in their last seven at home.
The under is 3-0 in the last three series meetings between these teams, 5-1 in Tech’s last six overall, 35-17-2 in Tech’s last 54 ACC contests and 17-6 in Florida State’s last 23 November outings. However, the Seminoles have topped the total in five of their last seven on the highway.
ATS ADVANTAGE: GEORGIA TECH and UNDER
<!-- / message -->
(1) Texas (8-0, 7-1 ATS) at (6) Texas Tech (8-0, 3-3 ATS)
The marquee game on the schedule takes place in Lubbock, Texas, tonight, where the top-ranked Longhorns face their fourth consecutive Top 11 conference opponent when they battle Texas Tech in a showdown for Big 12 South supremacy.
Texas has survived a murderous schedule over the past month, first defeating then-No. 1 Oklahoma 45-35 as a seven-point underdog in Dallas, then pummeling No. 11 Missouri 56-31 as a four-point home favorite before holding on to win last week’s 28-24 thriller against No. 6 Oklahoma State, falling short as an 11½-point favorite in that one. In last Saturday’s win over the Cowboys, the Longhorns rolled up 504 total yards, but gave up 416 and got outrushed 217-113.
Texas Tech prepped for this showdown by going to Lawrence, Kan., last week and throttling Kansas 63-21 as a one-point road underdog. Star QB Graham Harrell (34-for-42, 386 yards, 5 TDs, 0 INTs) was near perfect as the Red Raiders outgained the Jayhawks 556-315 and forced five turnovers.
These teams are tied atop the Big 12 South standings at 4-0, with Texas cashing in all four games while the Red Raiders are 2-2 ATS in league play.
The Longhorns hammered Texas Tech 59-43 last year, easily covering as a 6½-point home favorite. Texas has won the last five meetings and eight of the last nine, going 6-3 ATS during this stretch (3-1 ATS in the last four). However, the underdog is 4-2 ATS in the past six battles, and the host is 7-3 ATS in the last 10.
Two of the nation’s top offenses go at it in this one. Texas Tech ranks third in the nation in scoring (48 ppg), second in total offense (556.9 ypg), first in passing offense (418.4 ypg) and third in passing touchdowns (29). Texas is fifth in scoring (45.6 ppg) and ninth in total offense (486.5 ypg), but the Longhorns have a more balanced attack that gets it done both through the air (303 passing ypg) and on the ground (183.4 rushing ypg).
The quarterbacks are the key to both of these offenses. Texas’ Colt McCoy is completing an astounding 82 percent of his passes – tops in the nation – for 2,285 yards with 21 TDs and four INTs, and he’s also rushed for 412 yards and seven touchdowns. Tech’s Harrell, who ports a completion rate of 71 percent, leads the nation with 3,147 passing yards and his 28 TDs rank third nationally, and he’s thrown just five picks. Harrell also has five rushing scores.
Defensively, Texas rates a slight edge, giving up 18.4 points and 334.8 yards per game, including 69.2 rushing ypg, which is the third-lowest total in the nation. Meanwhile, the Red Raiders yield 21 points and 346.5 total yards per contest (101 rushing ypg).
Not only have the Longhorns cashed in seven of their eight games this year, but they’re on spread-covering streaks of 10-2 overall, 4-0 on the road (3-0 this year) and 19-9-2 in November. Texas Tech has won 24 of its last 30 home games in November and is on ATS runs of 13-6 as a home underdog and 6-2-1 on artificial turf, but the Red Raiders are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five following a spread-cover.
Not surprisingly, the scoreboard lights up when these schools get together, as the over is 5-1 in the last six meetings overall and 5-1 in the last six clashes in Lubbock. The over is also 4-1 in Texas’ last five overall, 5-1 in its last six on the road, 6-1 in its last seven conference games and 4-1 in its last five in November. However, Texas Tech has stayed under the total in six straight home games.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TEXAS and OVER
(5) Florida (6-1 SU and ATS) vs. (8) Georgia (7-1, 3-4 ATS)
(at Jacksonville, Fla.)
First place in the SEC East is on the line today in Jacksonville, where Florida and Georgia battle it out in the annual World’s Largest Cocktail Party, with the loser knocked out of the national championship race.
The Gators pummeled Kentucky 63-5 a week ago, easily covering as a 25-point home favorite to improve to 3-0 SU and ATS since their stunning home loss to Ole Miss back on Sept. 27. During the three-game streak, Florida has outscored the opposition 152-33 while averaging 478.3 total yards per game and allowing just 316.7 ypg.
Like the Gators, Georgia has rebounded from its only defeat – a 41-30 home loss to Alabama – with three straight wins, the most impressive being last week’s 52-38 drubbing of LSU in Baton Rouge. The Bulldogs cashed in the pick-em contest to snap a three-game ATS slide, and even though they got outgained 497-443 against the Tigers, they snared three interceptions, two of which were returned for touchdowns. Also, RB Knowshon Moreno rushed for a career-high 188 yards and three TDs.
These teams are tied atop the SEC East standings at 4-1, one game ahead of Vanderbilt.
The Bulldogs thumped Florida 42-30 as a seven-point underdog in last year’s meeting, finishing with a 413-343 yard edge in total offense (196-107 in rushing). Prior to last year’s contest, the Gators had won two in a row and eight of the previous nine clashes, though the Dawgs are 3-1 ATS in the last four. Finally, the underdog has been the play in five of the last seven series battles.
Both explosive offenses are guided by solid junior quarterbacks. Florida’s Tim Tebow, the reigning Heisman Trophy winner, is completing 63.4 percent of his passes for 1,415 yards with 12 TDs and two INTs to along with 227 rushing yards and five additional scores. Meanwhile, Bulldogs QB Matthew Stafford is connecting on 61.6 percent of his throws for 1,946 yards with 12 TDs and four INTs.
Overall, the Gators are putting up 42 points and 410.3 total yards per game (196 rushing ypg) and giving up 12 points and 273.4 total yards (102.7 rushing ypg). Georgia puts up 34.2 points and 431.2 total yards per outing (172.5 rushing ypg) while yielding 20.2 points and 298.1 yards per contest (77 rushing ypg).
Florida enters this showdown on ATS streaks of 9-1 in regular-season action, 6-1 in SEC play, 4-0 in November and 10-3 versus winning teams. Meanwhile, Georgia sports pointspread streaks of 7-3-1- overall, 4-1-1 in November, 4-0 in neutral-site contests, 7-2 as an underdog since 2005 and 7-2 against a winning team.
For the Gators, the over is on streaks of 11-4 overall, 8-2 in SEC action, 14-5 on grass and 4-0 at neutral sites. The over is also 6-2 in Georgia’s last eight at neutral venues. On the flip side, the under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings between these bitter rivals, though last year’s contest easily topped the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Miami, Fla. (5-3, 3-4 ATS) at Virginia (5-3, 4-3 ATS)
Two teams on the rise in the ACC standings square off at Scott Stadium in Charlottesville, Va., when the Hurricanes come calling on the Cavaliers.
Miami got a 16-10 home win over Wake Forest a week ago as a three-point favorite, the team’s third straight victory and second consecutive spread-cover. The ‘Canes blanked Wake Forest in the second half and rallied from a 10-3 halftime deficit to get the win, holding the Demon Deacons to just 252 total yards (57 passing). For the season, Miami is allowing 279.6 yards per game (110.5 rushing ypg).
Since an embarrassing 31-3 loss at Duke on Sept. 27, Virginia has rattled off four straight victories (4-0 ATS), capped by last week’s surprising 24-17 win at Georgia Tech as a two-touchdown road ‘dog. The Cavaliers now sit in first place in the ACC’s Coastal Division, led by an offense that is averaging 26.5 points and 382 yards per contest during its winning streak after scoring a total of 36 points in its first four games. Virginia’s defense leads the conference with 23 sacks, 10 of them coming from linebacker Clint Sintim, who lead the ACC in that category.
Virginia crushed Miami in South Beach a year ago, winning 48-0 as a four-point underdog to deal the Hurricanes their worst shutout loss in Orange Bowl history on the final game in the old stadium. It was the second straight year the Cavs beat the ‘Canes and their third straight spread-cover in the rivalry. The last time the two met in Charlottesville was 2006 when Virginia got a 17-7 win as a three-point pup.
The Hurricanes are 4-0 ATS in their last four roadies, but otherwise they’re on ATS slides of 6-15-1 in ACC contests, 7-33 following a spread-cover and 3-7 in November contests. Virginia is 28-12 in its last 40 games in Charlottesville (4-1 last five), and all four of its victories and covers during its current winning steak have come against teams with a winning record.
The over is 5-2 in Miami’s last seven ACC games, 6-2 in its last eight on the road and 8-3 in its last 11 against winning teams, but the under is 20-7 in its last 27 November contests and 10-4 in its last 14 after a spread-cover. For the Cavaliers, the under is on runs of 4-1 overall, 9-3 in November games and a whopping 20-7-3 in its last 30 ACC contests.
ATS ADVANTAGE: VIRGINIA
West Virginia (5-2, 2-4 ATS) at Connecticut (6-2, 3-4 ATS)
The Mountaineers are looking for their fifth straight victory today when they make the trek to East Hartford, Conn. to take on Connecticut in a Big East battle.
West Virginia has had eight days off since beating Auburn 34-17 as a three-point home favorite. QB Patrick White threw for three TDs against the Tigers, but it was RB Noel Devine who did most of the damage, rushing for 207 yards on 17 carries and scoring on a 30-yard run late in the game to seal the win. West Virginia had a whopping 445-260 advantage in total yards and outrushed Auburn 271-149.
Connecticut rebounded from two road losses with a 40-16 home win over Cincinnati last Saturday, cashing as a three-point home ‘dog. QB Cody Endres threw for 196 yards, but RB Donald Brown II ignited the offense with 150 yards and two TDs on 29 carries. Both Endres and Zach Frazer took snaps with the first-team offense this week, and the starting QB for today’s matchup with the Mountaineers is uncertain.
West Virginia has destroyed UConn each of the last four years (4-0 ATS), including last year’s 66-21 home rout as a 21-point chalk. The closest the Huskies have come to beating the Mountaineers was back in 2004, when West Virginia 31-19 as a seven-point road chalk. The average margin of victory in the four meetings is 28.8 points per game.
The Mountaineers are on ATS slides of 1-5 in Big East games, 1-10 after a spread-cover and 1-4 after straight-up wins. On the flip side, Connecticut is on ATS runs of 16-5 at home, 7-1 as a home underdog, 8-2 in Big East action and 5-0 at home against teams with a winning home record.
It’s been all unders for West Virginia lately, including 4-1 in Big East contests, 20-7 against teams with a winning home record and 4-1 after a straight-up win. Conversely, the over is 4-1 in UConn’s last five at home. Finally, the total has alternated in the four all-time meetings between these schools, with last year’s contest easily soaring over the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: WEST VIRGINIA
Northwestern (6-2, 3-4 ATS) at (20) Minnesota (7-1, 6-1 ATS)
The Golden Gophers will try to keep their magical season going when Northwestern pays a visit to the Metrodome for a key Big Ten matchup.
Minnesota, who went 1-11 last season, have won seven of eight games in 2008 while getting the cash in each of its last six lined games. It’s the defense that has kept the Gophers close to the top of the conference, forcing 24 turnovers and giving up just 17.1 points per game. Last week, Minnesota downed Purdue 17-6 as a one-point road favorite, allowing just 109 passing yards, which was the Boilermakers’ lowest output in a game in 12 years.
Since reaching the cusp of the Top 25 a month ago, Northwestern has gone on to lose two of its last three, including last Saturday’s 21-19 setback at Indiana as a 7½-point road chalk. The Wildcats lost much more than the game, as senior RB Tyrell Sutton is now out the rest of the regular season with a wrist injury. Sutton had 3,772 rushing yards and 31 TDs in his career, while his replacement, Omar Conteh, has run for just 223 yards on 61 carries.
Minnesota has won three of the last four meetings in this rivalry, both SU and ATS, but dropped a 49-48 overtime decision at Northwestern last season, cashing as a 6½-point pup. The Gophers are 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings, including a 43-17 win as 13½-point favorites the last time Northwestern came into the Metrodome in 2004. Finally, the ‘dog has cashed in eight of the last nine series battles.
The Wildcats are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 after a straight-up loss and 5-1 ATS in their last six after a non-cover. But Northwestern is on slides of 1-4 ATS on the highway and 5-13 ATS in road games against teams with a winning home record. Meanwhile, in addition to its current 6-0 ATS run, Minnesota is on positive pointspread streaks of 6-0 in Big Ten play, 5-1 in November and 4-0 against winning teams.
For Northwestern, the under is on runs of 7-2 in November, 11-5 after a SU loss and 5-1 after a non-cover. Minnesota has stayed low in four of its last five games, but otherwise the over is on streaks of 20-6 in November and 27-10-1 at home. Finally, the over has been the play in three of the last four meetings in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MINNESOTA and OVER
(19) Tulsa (8-0, 6-1 ATS) at Arkansas (3-5, 3-4 ATS)
Tulsa steps out of Conference USA play when it travels to Arkansas needing a win to keep its BCS Bowl hopes alive.
The Golden Hurricane stumbled out of the gate in Sunday night’s home game against Central Florida, falling behind 19-14 at the half. But they got their top-ranked offense cranked up in the final 30 minutes, outscoring Central Florida 35-0 en route to a 49-19 win as a 23½-point chalk. Tulsa produced “just” 435 total yards, including 264 passing, but the defense stepped up in allowing just 187 total yards and forcing three turnovers.
With less than two minutes to play, Arkansas scored 10 points in 38 seconds last week against Ole Miss, but still came up short in a 23-21 home loss, covering as a 6½-point underdog. The Razorbacks have lost five of their last six games, but the last three were decided by a total of six points, and the Hogs cashed in each contest, all as an underdog.
These teams last met in 2003, when Arkansas rolled to a 45-13 victory, though Tulsa got the cash as a 36-point road underdog. The Razorbacks have won 16 consecutive meetings in this rivalry, with the last 10 going dating to 1985 being played on Arkansas’ home turf.
Tulsa leads the nation in both scoring offense (56.6 ppg) and total offense (624.7 total ypg), and despite an average game last week against Central Florida, QB David Johnson still is completing 68.3 percent of his passes for 332.6 yards per game with an NCAA-best 32 TDs against nine INTs. Meanwhile, despite scoring 25, 20 and 21 points the last three weeks, the Hogs are putting up just 19.1 points and 361.6 total yards per outing while allowing 32 points and 359.2 yards per game.
The Hurricane have cashed in seven of their last eight games dating to last season and are on additional pointspread streaks of 13-5 after a spread-cover and 10-4 in non-conference play. The Razorbacks are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 November contests, but they’re stuck in pointspread slumps of 1-3 at home this year, 1-5 as a home pup since 2005 and 2-8 outside of SEC play.
For Tulsa, the over is on runs of 4-1-1 overall, 5-1 in non-conference play and 5-2 in November, but the under is 6-0 in the team’s last six games on grass. For Arkansas, the over streaks include 8-3 at home, 5-1 in non-conference action, 11-5 on grass and 4-1 in November.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TULSA and OVER
Pittsburgh (5-2, 2-4-1 ATS) at Notre Dame (5-2 SU and ATS)
Notre Dame will try to secure its first winning season in three years when it hosts Pitt as this regional rivalry resumes for the first time since 2005.
The Irish bounced back from a heartbreaking 29-24 loss at North Carolina with last week’s 33-7 drubbing of Washington, easily getting the cash as a 10-point road favorite for their fourth consecutive spread-cover. Notre Dame had a ridiculous 459-124 edge in total offense last week, including a 252-26 advantage on the ground. Going back to last year, Charlie Weis’ team is on a 7-2 SU and ATS run, including five straight wins in South Bend (4-1 ATS).
The Panthers saw their five-game winning streak come to a halt in last week’s embarrassing 54-34 home loss to lowly Rutgers as a 9½-point home chalk, falling to 2-4-1 ATS in their last seven. Pitt actually had the edge in total offense (486-442) and held the ball for five more minutes than Rutgers, but the offense committed two turnovers and the defense allowed six touchdown passes.
These schools have squared off against each other 10 times since 1992, including five straight years from 2001-05. During this 10-meeting stretch, the Irish are 8-2 SU and ATS (4-1 SU and ATS) at home). The SU winner cashed in all 10 games.
Pitt is on ATS steaks of 6-2 on the highway and 5-1 as a road pup, both since last year. On the flip side, the Panthers are in pointspread nosedives of 1-7 in November, 1-4-1 in non-conference play and 4-8-1 after a non-cover. Meanwhile, despite its current positive ATS runs, Notre Dame is 1-4 ATS in its last five versus the Big East.
The under is 9-4 in Pitt’s last 13 overall and 13-6 in Notre Dame’s last 19 overall. However, the over is 5-2 in the Irish’s last seven in South Bend and 5-1 in their last six against the Big East.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NOTRE DAME
Nebraska (5-3, 4-4 ATS) at (4) Oklahoma (7-1, 5-2 ATS)
Oklahoma and Nebraska renew their storied rivalry for the first time since 2006 when the teams meet in Norman, Okla,, where the Sooners hope to keep their BCS title game hopes alive.
Oklahoma’s offense put on a show in the first half of last week’s game at Kansas State, scoring a school-record eight touchdowns and taking a 55-28 halftime lead en route to an easy 58-35 victory. The Sooners actually got outgained 550-528, but finished with a whopping 273-64 advantage in rushing. Bob Stoops’ offense has tallied a combined 103 points the last two weeks and is averaging 48.2 points and 542.1 total yards per game this season, scoring at least 35 in every game.
Nebraska evened its Big 12 record at 2-2 with last week’s 32-20 home victory over Baylor, but the Huskers failed to cover as a 13-point home favorite despite finishing with 147-yard edge in total offense (497-350). They have outgained their last three foes (Texas Tech, Iowa State and Baylor) by a total of 527 yards.
These rivals haven’t faced off since a three-year stretch from 2004-06, with Oklahoma winning all three contests and covering the spread in the past two. The most recent battle came in the 2006 Big 12 Championship game, and the Sooners rolled to a 21-7 victory as a 3½-point favorite. The chalk is on a 6-2 ATS roll in this rivalry.
Despite covering the number in two of its last three games, Nebraska is still just 6-13 ATS in its last 19 games overall. In addition, the Cornhuskers are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 on the highway (but 2-0 ATS this year), 4-9 ATS in their last 13 league games and 5-10 ATS in their last 15 as a road pup. Meanwhile, the Sooners have won 22 consecutive home games, going 13-7-1 ATS, including 12-4-1 in their last 17 in Norman (all as a favorite). OU is also on ATS tears of 5-2 in November and 15-7 following a spread-cover.
Oklahoma has topped the total in four straight games overall, six of its seven lined contests this season and four of its last five in Norman. Conversely, the Huskers are on under streaks of 5-2 overall, 7-2 on the road, 9-4 in Big 12 action and 6-1 when playing on grass. Also, the under is 4-1 in the last five Nebraska-Oklahoma battles.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OKLAHOMA and UNDER
(23) Oregon (6-2, 4-4 ATS) at California (5-2 SU and ATS)
Having climbed back into the Top 25 after consecutive victories, Oregon will now try to move up the rankings when it visits California in a key Pac-10 clash.
The Ducks followed up a sluggish 31-24 home win over UCLA by destroying Arizona State 54-20 as a three-point road favorite last week. Oregon, which has outgained nine of its last 10 opponents dating to last year, piled up 537 total yards (304 rushing) and allowed just 333 (107 rushing) and won easily despite committing three turnovers. Even though they got the cash last week, the Ducks are just 2-4 ATS in their last six outings (2-2 ATS on the road).
Cal bounced back from a 42-27 loss at Arizona with last week’s 41-20 home rout of UCLA, barely holding on to cover as an 18-point favorite. The Bears, who like Oregon have outgained nine of their last 10 foes, ran all over UCLA for 232 yards while holding the Bruins to 16 net rushing yards. The SU winner is 11-0 ATS in Cal’s last 11 games.
The Bears went to Autzen Stadium in Eugene, Ore., last year and surprised the Ducks 31-24 as a 6½-point road underdog, ending a four-game winning streak by the home team in this rivalry. Cal has won and covered the last two meetings after Oregon had gone 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS in the previous eight clashes.
Oregon is 12-4 ATS in its last 16 games on artificial turf and 14-7 in its last 21 when catching points, but only 1-4 ATS in its last five versus winning teams. Meanwhile, the Bears ended last season in a 1-7 ATS funk, but they’ve cashed in six of their eight games this year, including all four at home. However, they’re still 3-8 ATS in their last 11 conference contests and 0-6 ATS in their last six November outings.
The under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings between these schools. However, the over is 4-1-2 in Oregon’s last seven games overall, 5-1-1 in its last seven on turf, 6-2 in Cal’s last eight overall and 13-6 in Cal’s last 19 at home.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Wisconsin (4-4, 3-5 ATS) at (22) Michigan State (7-2, 5-3 ATS)
Wisconsin tries for consecutive victories for the first time since starting the season 3-0 when it travels to Michigan State for a Big Ten contest.
The Badgers snapped a four-game SU and ATS losing skid – all in Big Ten play – with last Saturday’s come-from-behind 27-17 victory over Illinois as a 2½-point home underdog. Wisconsin outrushed the Illini 163-88, and the defense picked off Illinois QB Juice Williams three times en route to the team’s first league victory of the season.
Michigan State bounced back from an embarrassing 45-7 home loss to Ohio State with last week’s 35-21 trouncing of Michigan, cashing as a 3½-point road chalk. The Spartans enjoyed a 473-252 edge in total offense and forced four turnovers, but lost three fumbles. Michigan State is on a 7-1 roll (5-2 ATS), going 3-1 (2-2 ATS) in Big Ten play.
The SU winner is 7-0 ATS in Wisconsin’s last seven games and 7-2 ATS in Michigan State’s nine contests this year.
The host has taken the last three meetings in this rivalry dating to 2003. Last year, Wisconsin prevailed 37-34, but the Spartans got the cash as a seven-point road underdog.
The Badgers are on ATS slides of 6-13 overall, 1-8 on the highway and 1-5 in league games. As for the Spartans, they’re 8-3 ATS in their last 11 after a SU win and 5-2 ATS in their last seven in Big Ten, but they’re mired in pointspread funks of 5-12 in November and 7-17 at home.
The over is on runs of 6-2 for Wisconsin in Big Ten play, 4-1 for Wisconsin in November, 4-1 for Michigan State overall, 8-1 for Michigan State in conference and 15-7-2 for Michigan State in November action. Finally, each of the last five series meetings have topped the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
(16) Florida State (6-1, 3-2 ATS) at Georgia Tech (6-2, 5-1 ATS)
Florida State hopes to maintain at least a share of first place in the ACC Atlantic Division when it hits the road for a league game at Georgia Tech.
The Seminoles opened conference play with a disappointing 12-3 home loss to Wake Forest on Sept. 20, but they’ve bounced back to win four in a row (3-1 ATS). Last week, Florida State rallied to beat Virginia Tech 30-20, covering as a 6½-point home favorite. Bobby Bowden’s club is 3-1 in ACC play (2-2 ATS), tied with Maryland for first place in the Atlantic Division.
Georgia Tech’s four-game SU and five-game ATS winning streaks came to a stunning halt a week ago in a 24-17 loss to Virginia, even though the Yellow Jackets were a 14-point home favorite. They gave up 396 total yards (270 passing) and mustered just 259 on offense (103 passing) in falling into second place in the ACC’s Coastal Division at 3-2 (4-1 ATS).
These teams last met in 2003, with Florida State eking out a 14-13 victory but never threatening to cash as a 24-point home chalk. The Seminoles have won 12 in a row in this rivalry, but after cashing in five straight from 1994-98, FSU is just 1-3-1 ATS in the last five battles with Georgia Tech – with those five contests decided by an average of six points per game.
Despite its recent pointspread successes, the ‘Noles are still just 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 November games and 7-15 ATS in their last 22 following a SU victory. Meanwhile, the Yellow Jackets are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 following a non-cover, but 2-5 ATS in their last seven at home.
The under is 3-0 in the last three series meetings between these teams, 5-1 in Tech’s last six overall, 35-17-2 in Tech’s last 54 ACC contests and 17-6 in Florida State’s last 23 November outings. However, the Seminoles have topped the total in five of their last seven on the highway.
ATS ADVANTAGE: GEORGIA TECH and UNDER
<!-- / message -->
