Service Plays Saturday 1/11/14

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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

[h=1]Today's NFL Picks[/h] [h=2]Indianapolis at New England[/h] The Colts head to New England after a 45-44 win over Kansas City in the Wild Card round and carrying a 9-0 ATS record in their last 9 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game. Indianapolis is the pick (+7 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the game Even. Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (+7 1/2). Here are all of this week's picks.

SATURDAY, JANUARY 11 Time Posted: 9:00 p.m. EST (1/6)

Game 111-112: New Orleans at Seattle (4:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 134.432; Seattle 146.570 Dunkel Line: Seattle by 12; 50 Vegas Line: Seattle by 8; 47 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-8); Over

Game 113-114: Indianapolis at New England (8:15 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Indianapolis 137.116; New England 137.129 Dunkel Line: Even; 48 Vegas Line: New England by 7 1/2; 53 Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (+7 1/2); Under

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

H&H Sports

Double Dime Seahawks

Dime Colts

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Alex Blasscyk

Blasscyk WINS

BW Play: 112 Seattle Seahawks under 47.5 (-115) *5 UNITS* (The Greek)

BW Play: 113 Indianapolis Colts +7.5 (-120) *4 UNITS* (BetOnline)

BW Play: 113 Indianapolis Colts under 53 (-108) *4 UNITS* (5 Dimes)

BW Play: 115 S.F. 49ERS OVER 42 (-105) *5 UNITS* (5 Dimes)

BW Play: 115 S.F. 49ERS -1 (-115) *5 UNITS* (BetOnline)

BW Play: 117 San Diego Chargers OVER 54.5 (-110) *3 UNITS* (Bookmaker)

BW Play: 117 San Diego Chargers +10 (-110) *3 UNITS* (Bookmaker)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Goodfella

3* Teaser Colts +14.5 and Seahawks -.5

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

EZWINNERS

5* Saints +8

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Saints at Seahawks: What bettors need to know

New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks (-8, 46)

The New Orleans Saints are coming off their first postseason road win in franchise history, but the degree of difficulty will rise dramatically when they visit the top-seeded Seattle Seahawks on Saturday. It will be a rematch of a Dec. 2 game in Seattle, when the Seahawks manhandled New Orleans 34-7 and held the Saints to their lowest point total since October 2008. "This is definitely going to be a personal game," New Orleans cornerback Keenan Lewis said. "They embarrassed us last time."

The Seahawks have embarrassed a number of opponents, particularly on their home field, where they are 15-1 over the past two seasons. Among the reasons for Seattle's dominance at CenturyLink Field is its rabid fan base known as the 12th Man, which set a Guiness Book World Record for crowd noise with a reading of 137.6 decibels in the thrashing of the Saints last month. The Seahawks are hoping to see the return of explosive wide receiver Percy Harvin, who has played in only one game since returning from offseason hip surgery.

TV: 4:35 p.m., Fox.

LINE: Seattle opened -8.5 and is now -8. The total is down two points from the opening 48.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-40s with a 98 percent chance of rain. Wind will blow toward the N endzone at 21 mph.

ABOUT THE SAINTS (12-5): New Orleans' high-powered offense struggles away from home, managing only 36 points in three December road losses before pulling out a last-second 26-24 win at Philadelphia last week. Drew Brees, the only QB with three 5,000-yard seasons, threw for 250 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions against the Eagles but now must contend with a defense that limited him to 147 yards and held the Saints to 188 total yards - the lowest total since Brees and head coach Sean Payton arrived in New Orleans in 2006. New Orleans overcame an injury to running back Pierre Thomas to churn out 185 rushing yards against Philadelphia - including 97 by former first-round pick Mark Ingram - while its defense held the NFL's leading rusher, LeSean McCoy, to 77 yards on 21 carries.

ABOUT THE SEAHAWKS (13-3): Seattle leveled off after steamrolling the Saints, losing at San Francisco and falling to Arizona for its first home defeat in two seasons before closing the campaign with a dominant defensive performance against St. Louis. Wilson was being mentioned for league MVP honors at one point in the season but he stumbled down the stretch, averaging 171.3 yards passing and throwing for four touchdowns and three interceptions in the four games following the beatdown of New Orleans. Marshawn Lynch rushed for 1,257 yards and 12 touchdowns but he cracked 100 yards only once in the last eight games. The Seahawks led the league in fewest points (14.4) and yards (273.3) allowed per game while registering an NFL-high 28 interceptions - eight by cornerback Richard Sherman.

TRENDS:

* Saints are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games.
* Seahawks are 12-3 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* Over is 3-0-1 in Saints last four Divisional Playoffs games.
* Under is 5-0 in Seahawks last five vs. NFC.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Brees owns the highest completion percentage (67.0) in postseason history and is the only QB with three 400-yard games in the playoffs.

2. Wilson has 24 overall wins and 15 at home in his first two seasons, the most by a quarterback in the Super Bowl era.

3. Saints TE Jimmy Graham had 16 TDs during the regular season but was limited to three catches for 42 yards and a score by Seattle.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Colts at Patriots: What bettors need to know

Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots (-7.5, 51.5)

Andrew Luck's first visit to New England resulted in the worst defeat of his two-year career - a 59-24 beating at the hands of the Patriots in his rookie season. Luck appeared on the way to absorbing a defeat of similar magnitude a week ago, but he rallied the Indianapolis Colts from a 28-point second-half deficit to a stunning 45-44 victory over Kansas City in the opening round of the playoffs. The improbable win earned Luck a second crack at Tom Brady and host New England on Saturday night.

Luck has amassed 11 wins in the fourth quarter and overtime in his first two seasons - the most in the NFL during that span - but now the Colts have to find a way to take down the winningest quarterback in postseason history. Brady is 17-7 in the playoffs, which includes five trips to the Super Bowl and three championships, and guided New England to an 8-0 home record this season. Brady is working with a patchwork receiving corps that is missing tight end Rob Gronkowski, who caught two touchdown passes against the Colts last season.

TV: 8:15 p.m., CBS.

LINE: The Patriots opened -7.5. The total is down to 51.5 from the opening 53.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-50s with an 86 percent chance of rain. Wind will blow toward the N endzone at 13 mph.

ABOUT THE COLTS (12-5): While Luck stole the headlines by leading five second-half touchdown drives and throwing for four TDs and a career-best 443 yards, second-year receiver T.Y. Hilton also had a coming-out party by hauling in 13 catches for 224 yards and a pair of scores in the second-biggest playoff comeback in league history. The onus will again be on the Luck-to-Hilton combination due to the absence of a consistent running game by Indianapolis, which has relied more on Donald Brown that early-season acquisition Trent Richardson, who fumbled on his lone carry last week. Another concern for the Colts is a defense that allowed a total of 20 points in winning the last three regular-season games but was shredded by a Kansas City offense that was without its top weapon in Jamaal Charles for the majority of the contest.

ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (12-4): Multiple injuries to Gronkowski and the departure of Wes Welker to free agency has left New England scrambling to cobble together an effective passing attack and it's reflected in the numbers - Brady's 25 touchdown passes and 87.3 passer rating are his lowest since the 2006 season. Converted college quarterback Julian Edelman helped fill the void with 105 receptions - nearly tripling his previous career high - and 1,056 yards, but the Patriots have shown an increasing reliance on sledgehammer running back LeGarrette Blount, who rambled for 265 yards and four touchdowns in the last two games. The defense, which lost Pro Bowl tackle Vince Wilfork and middle linebacker Jerod Mayo to season-ending injuries, suffered another blow when third-leading tackler Brandon Spikes was placed on injured reserve.

TRENDS:

* Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
* Colts are 1-4 ATS in their last five games in January.
* Patriots are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 playoff games.
* Under is 13-6-1 in Patriots last 20 playoff home games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Brady, who is 11-3 at home in the postseason, needs three TD passes to surpass Brett Favre (44) for the second-highest total in playoff history.

2. Colts OLB Robert Mathis led the league with 19.5 sacks during the regular season and had a pivotal strip-sack in last week's victory.

3. The Patriots joined San Francisco as the only teams to win at least 10 games in 11 consecutive seasons.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL Prop Shop: Divisional Weekend
By SEAN MURPHY

The postseason continues in the NFL with Divisional Weekend getting underway Saturday. Why not spice things up with some player prop bets? Covers Expert Sean Murphy opens the doors of the NFL Prop Shop and gives you his favorite player prop picks for this weekend's action:

Most passing yards

Andrew Luck (Indianapolis Colts) vs. Tom Brady (New England Patriots)

I'll take a shot with Andrew Luck at a healthy underdog price on Saturday.

Here's my thinking: I fully expect the Colts to be playing from behind for much of this game. That means we should see Luck airing it out early and often. I'm aware that the Colts want to be a run-first team, but this is an awfully tough spot to be hard-headed. Luck rallied the offense last Saturday, and I believe he'll be asked to do the same this week.

Take: Luck

Colin Kaepernick (San Francisco 49ers) vs. Cam Newton (Carolina Panthers)

I have the ultimate respect for the Panthers defense, however, we've seen Colin Kaepernick take his game to another level in the playoffs time and time again, and I expect that to be the case again on Sunday afternoon.

Cam Newton has played on the big stage before (in SEC and BCS Championship Games), but the NFL playoffs are another animal. He'll be up against a 49ers defense that is playing 'angry' right now (credit that quote to former 49er and NFL Network analyst Eric Davis) - a unit that should be able to control a good, but not great receiving corps.

Take: Kaepernick

Most rushing yards

Frank Gore (San Francisco 49ers) vs. DeAngelo Williams (Carolina Panthers)

I supported Frank Gore last Sunday against Green Bay, but I'm switching gears this week.

I believe we'll see the 49ers take a more pass-heavy approach against an aggressive Panthers defense on Sunday. Gore will get his share of carries, but I'm not sure he'll create a lot of 'splash' plays.

While DeAngelo Williams hasn't been all that consistent, he does boast big play potential and could rip off a couple of big runs if the 49ers come in a little too focused on Cam Newton.

Take: Williams

Most pass receptions

Keenan Allen (San Diego Chargers) vs. Julius Thomas (Denver Broncos)

If this were a play on which receiver would have a bigger impact on the final result, I might be inclined to back Julius Thomas, as he likely has greater touchdown potential. However, when it comes to receptions, I'll go with Keenan Allen.

Allen was a virtual non-factor in last week's win over the Bengals, but that only serves to give us better line value here. The Chargers know that he needs to play a bigger role in the offense this Sunday if they're going to pull off another shocker in Denver. If they're playing from behind and Philip Rivers is forced to sling it all over the field, that suits our purposes even better.

Take: Allen

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Divisional Round
By JASON LOGAN

Each week, Jason Logan breaks down some of the underlying mismatches in the NFL, hoping to give you an inside edge when handicapping the schedule. Here are four of the biggest betting mismatches for the NFL Divisional Round:

New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks (-8, 46.5)

Saints’ commitment to run vs. Seahawks’ rushing defense

The Saints got the road-woe monkey off their backs with a win at Philadelphia in the Wild Card Round, thanks in part to their commitment to the running game. New Orleans, despite missing RB Pierre Thomas, handed the ball off 36 times to Mark Ingram, Khiry Robinson and Darren Sproles, marching for 185 yards on the ground. That cut down on turnovers and chewed up 34:53 worth of clock, keeping the Eagles’ explosive offense off the field.

The Seahawks' stingy defense is a much tougher test than Philadelphia’s porous stop unit. But, if Seattle does have one weakness, it’s against the run. The Seahawks were pushed around by opposing rushing attacks in their three losses this season. They allowed the Colts to put up 109 rushing yards and a score, watched San Francisco rumble for 163 yards, and gave up 139 yards rushing in the loss to Arizona. The Saints fell behind quickly in their Week 13 loss to Seattle and ran the ball just 17 times, so it won’t be hard to improve on those numbers.

Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots (-7.5, 51.5)

Colts’ comebacks vs. Patriots’ fourth quarter defense

The Colts are becoming as predictable as a Rocky movie. Scene 1: Indianapolis gets its head beat in for two quarters. Scene 2: Bell rings for halftime, head coach Chuck Pagano does his best Mickey impersonation before a pump-up montage to awesome 80’s cock rock. Scene 3: Colts come out swinging and rip victory from the clutches of defeat. Cue credits and Survivor. Indianapolis did just that versus Kansas City Saturday, scoring 35 points in the second half. That’s kind of been the calling card of the Andrew Luck era in Indy.

The Patriots enjoyed a bye week and hopefully figured out a way to get through the fourth quarter without needing a pile of points. New England’s offense has masked a serious issue, with the defense unable to close out games by itself. The Pats have given up 31 total points in the final frame over their last three outings – offsetting that by answering with 49 points of their own. However, those fourth-quarter lapses could come back to bite New England hard if the Colts get on the comeback trail.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL Divisional betting preview: Hot bets and moving odds
By SPORTSINTERACTION

Sports Interaction betting analyst Frank Doyle previews this weekend’s NFL playoff action.

All odds current as of 11 a.m. ET, Jan. 9.

Saturday, Jan. 11.

New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks (-8, 47)

Even after the Saints earned a big road win at Philadelphia last week, they aren’t getting much love against the Seahawks. Drew Brees struggled to get much going against Philadelphia’s pass defense and finished with 250 passing yards to go along with one touchdown and two interceptions. Now the Saints face a Seahawks club that is 7-1 at home and owns the top total defense, scoring defense and passing defense in the NFL. So, it’s no surprise that the total has dropped from 48.5 at the open to 47 now.

Where the action is: The Saints are seeing 64 percent of Sports Interaction's bets as 8-point road underdogs.

Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots (-7, 52.5)

It may not be pretty, but the Indianapolis Colts continue to find ways to win. Last week it was Andrew Luck’s fumble recovery that pushed them past the Kansas City Chiefs. This week they may need some more luck against the Pats. Although the Colts have proven they can keep pace on the scoreboard, last week’s defensive performance against the Chiefs is a big concern. The Colts allowed Alex Smith to throw for almost 400 yards with four touchdowns with star running back Jamaal Charles on the sideline. You have to think Bill Belichick and Tom Brady are licking their chops.

Where the action is: The Pats opened as 7.5-point favorites but that line has dropped to -7 with solid support for the Colts coming in. About 70 percent of our bets are currently backing Indy at +7.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL mid-week line moves: NFC Divisional Round action report
By JASON LOGAN

Odds for this weekend’s NFL Divisional Round matchups have been on the board since the Wild Card games wound down. That’s more than enough time for the betting public and wiseguys to have their say.

We talk to Michael Stewart, an oddsmaker with CarbonSports.ag, about the action coming in on this weekend’s NFC playoff games and where those odds could end up come kickoff.

New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks - Open: -9.5, Move: -7, Move: -8, Move: -7.5

Some books banked on the Seahawks' dominance over the Saints in Week 13 – a 34-7 win on Monday Night Football – and opened Seattle as big as 9.5-point favorites. Other shops, like CarbonSports.ag, posted this game closer to the current number.

They opened the Seahawks -7 and instantly took big money to move the line to -8 on Saturday night. Following that adjustment, Saints money showed at the increased spread and trimmed the line to Seattle -7.5

“Most of that money that bet the Saints +8 was recreational and there’s no question in my mind, the public is on the Saints and that’s one of the reasons why we opened Seahawks -7,” Stewart tells Covers. “We expected public money to back the dog but we couldn’t ignore the sharp action that hammered the Seahawks -7. Bottom line, we’re dealing a great line at 7.5 and I very much doubt we’ll move off that number.”

The total for this NFC Divisional Round matchup has dropped as many as two points, with some markets coming down from 48.5 to 46.5. Sharp money grabbed the Under early on and the forecast for Seattle is calling for a 90 percent chance of rain showers.

“I do believe 46.5 is as low as we’ll go on this total, but we’re still four days out and all weather reports at this time indicate rain but it’s not going to be cold and no wind,” says Stewart.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL mid-week line moves: AFC Divisional Round action report
By JASON LOGAN

Odds for this weekend’s NFL Divisional Round matchups have been on the board since the Wild Card games wound down. That’s more than enough time for the betting public and wiseguys to have their say.

We talk to Michael Stewart, an oddsmaker with CarbonSports.ag, about the action coming in on this weekend’s AFC playoff games and where those odds could end up come kickoff.

Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots – Open: -7.5, Move: -7

The comeback Colts drew the early money for this first of two AFC Divisional Round games, first forcing an adjustment to the juice then a half-point move from 7.5 to Patriots -7. The key number is getting the job done, with bettors split on this Saturday showdown.

“Since going to -7, we’ve seen great two-way action at that number and unless a sharp group bets us this game, we won’t be moving off the key number of seven,” Stewart tells Covers.

As for the total for Saturday’s game in New England, most shops are dealing a number between 53.5 and 52.5 points. According to Stewart, early money took the Over and bumped their total from 52.5 to 53.5.

“So far, 75 percent of the action is on the Over and it’s understandable why the public is betting it Over, when you consider the Colts not only scored 45 points in last week’s playoff game, but more importantly their defense gave up 44 points and over 500 offensive yards to the Chiefs,” he says. “One can’t help but look at this game versus the Pats and think Over.”

 

[Phillyboy500]

Jeff Carson Sports Saturday NFL

25* underdog best bet
Colts

10* COLTS ML +270

5* under Seattle 46.5

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Wunderdog Sports Free Pick

Game: Indianapolis at New England (Saturday 1/11 8:15 PM Eastern)
Pick: Game Total UNDER 52.5 (-110) at Sportsbook.com

To me this game is all about someone not playing: Rob Gronkowski. I can't lay a touchdown on New England without him. And, without him, the Pats offense is a whole different animal. The Indianapolis Colts staged the second-biggest comeback in NFL playoff history a week ago, and should be riding a high heading to New England. The Colts have been a very erratic offensive team this year. They have scored 37 points or more three times, and 11 or less three times. The defense has played in similar fashion as they held six teams to 14 points or less this season, while allowing 40+ to three other teams. New England comes into this game with an offense that is not nearly as good as previous editions, and they average 7 points per game fewer on offense than they did a year ago. That is the first part of the equation. The second part is the New England offense generated 32.8 points per game in the six full games played by Rob Gronkowski, while in their nine games without him they generated just 23.3 ppg. That is another 10 ppg wiped out of the Patriots' offensive output. Since the 2001-02 season, New England has hosted 18 playoff games. With much better offenses in those games, they scored 20 points or less in eight of them, 23 points or less in 11 of them, and got to 30 just five times, despite averaging over 30 ppg during the time frame. This offense is no where near as capable. The Pats have also allowed just one opponent to score as many as 30 points here in a playoff game. Expectations are always high when New England takes the field in terms of points, but this one just doesn't get there. Go with the UNDER.

 

[ryangenero]

football jesus : Teaser seahawks/patriots

 

[SqueezetheJuice]

Sports Reporter:

Sea by 9

NE by 2

 

[SqueezetheJuice]

Winning Pts.

Sea by 3

NE by 10

 

[SqueezetheJuice]

GOLDSHEET:

Sea 31 NO 20

NE 30 Indy 27

 

[SqueezetheJuice]

Power Plays:

3* Sea UNDER
No PLay Pats 34 Colts 24