Randall The Handle
Ravens (11-6) at Patriots (12-6)
LINE: NEW ENGLAND by 7
We're going to hear a lot about Baltimore's post-season successes against the Patriots over these past few seasons. It makes for a nice story and an easy sell for those looking to back the Ravens. Unfortunately, those games have no bearing on the impending result for this one. While we admire Baltimore and its gritty accomplishments when cast in this playoff underdog role, this is New England we're talking about here. The Ravens play in what we are realizing is a very mediocre division despite three of its teams going to the post-season. Cincinnati was easily dismissed and Pittsburgh was removed by this Baltimore squad. The win over the Steelers surprised some, but considering the familiarity and history of the two and Pittsburgh missing a key guy, the Ravens' win has to be considered a mild upset at best. Now Baltimore will step up in class and figures to have its hands full. New England was 7-1 here this season, its only loss occurring in the final game when it rested most of its starters against Buffalo. Not counting that irrelevant home loss, the Pats outscored their opposition by a dominant 255-117 at Gillette on the year. The Patriots pulverized the Bengals 43-17 on this field, Cincinnati being the team that won Baltimore's AFC North division. Tom Brady and Co. also clobbered the No. 2-seeded Broncos 43-21 here in a one-sided affair. Are we to expect that much more from this visitor? Not with Baltimore's road record. While 4-4 away in the regular season, the road wins were at Cleveland, TB, Miami and New Orleans -- none being playoff teams. Three of four losses were at playoff-bound opponents' parks. Overall, Baltimore was 1-6 against teams with a winning record. We also have our doubts about Baltimore's 28th-ranked secondary. This New England team is noticeably stronger than in years past with vast improvements in all three phases of the game. There is a solid defence, a healthy Rob Gronkowski and a feisty Brady leading the way. The Patriots also have Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner this time around to patrol their secondary and, with those guys covering Steve Smith, we're not sure that Joe Flacco will have as many outlets as he's grown accustomed to. The Pats are the top seed in the AFC for a reason and they'll remind us why on this day.
TAKING: PATRIOTS -7
Panthers (8-8-1) at Seattle (12-4)
LINE: SEATTLE by 10 1/2
Trepidation when fading the Seahawks on their home turf is understandable. The 12th man, the Legion of Boom and an unreal home record are valid reasons for such fears. But that won't stop us from endorsing the side that offers the most value and that's what we have here with the Panthers. Make fun of their division all you want, but Carolina has upgraded its play over the past month with five straight wins. It has done so with some tweaks to its secondary, a commitment to the running game and by having a revitalized Cam Newton playing at a high level, aided by a maturing confidence. We don't want to take anything away from Seattle as it is a quality football team that has lost only twice on this field in its past 26 games here. QB Russell Wilson is a headsy leader and he makes the most of the offensive players around him, assisted by the bruising running of Marshawn Lynch. However, the Panthers won't be intimidated by their hosts on this day. These two combatants have met once per year over the past three seasons and Carolina has given Seattle fits in those contests. The Seahawks were victorious each time, but the largest margin of victory was five points, and never did Seattle exceed 16 points in the trio of games, including a 13-9 win this season. It wouldn't surprise us to see a similar contest on this day. While Seattle has been on a roll of its own, it hasn't faced a talented quarterback in weeks, maybe months (Alex Smith in mid-November?). We won't list them, but suffice it to say, it's been a group with a lot less talent than Newton. Defensively, Carolina is a capable unit. During this win streak, it has compiled 18 sacks, seven interceptions and has not allowed an opponent more than 17 points in any of the games. It's not like Seattle has been running up the scoreboard, either. With a limited passing game, the Seachickens have managed to exceed 20 points just twice in their past seven games. There is also the fatigue factor when it comes to Super Bowl champs, as no team has even won a playoff game since the 2005 season, let alone by the margin being suggested here. In what figures to be a low-scorer, the prudent play remains the Panthers. We'll gladly give them the nod.
TAKING: PANTHERS +10 1/2
Cowboys (13-4) at Packers (12-4)
LINE: GREEN BAY by 6
Dallas' 8-0 road record is quite an accomplishment and, for whatever reason, the team seems to play better when travelling than when hosting. We're highly skeptical that the same holds true on this day. Green Bay has been unstoppable here at Lambeau Field. The Packers possess their own 8-0 mark as hosts and they've averaged 40 points per game while doing so. Visitors have scored less than 20 points on average during their unsuccessful stops here. QB Aaron Rodgers has been as near perfect as a quarterback can be with 25 touchdown passes and zero interceptions in front of the home crowd. Dallas has had an impressive season, but we don't feel that they are in Green Bay's class quite yet. The Cowboys had to overcome a 14-0 deficit to the Lions last week, aided by some controversial refereeing. Green Bay has the ability to pile on points a lot more than Detroit could and it won't come as a surprise if the Packers get their fair share against a Dallas defence that has overachieved based on the talent of the players on the field. The Cowboys' strong offence has been able to mask the defence, but the unit hasn't seen an arsenal with Green Bay's capabilities. Dallas is most effective when utilizing RB DeMarco Murray, but as we saw last week, when Murray is contained (75 yards rushing on 19 carries), Dallas struggles to score points. Green Bay's unheralded run defence has allowed just two runners in the past seven weeks to exceed 60 yards on the ground, with none of them reaching 90 yards. That poses a major challenge for the Cowpokes. While Dallas' offence is a dangerous group, we believe Green Bay's stoppers to be a more seasoned and bona-fide group, led by such veterans as Clay Matthews and Julius Peppers. Dallas' offensive line is one of its strengths, but Green Bay also employs a strong offensive line that protects its prized passer. With weapons such as Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb and Eddie Lacy, Rodgers can exploit the best of defences, let alone this Texas bunch. Dallas is a popular team and that has certainly affected this line, but if Denver and New England are a full touchdown at home against comparable visitors, shouldn't Green Bay be the same with its dominant home play this year?
TAKING: PACKERS -6
Colts (12-5) at Broncos (12-4)
LINE: DENVER by 7
In the recent past, we've questioned Indianapolis' credibility based on its propensity for beating up on weaker teams and not faring well against leading clubs. While those sentiments cannot be easily dismissed, we're not so sure how good the current Broncos really are. While a bye week had to help matters, Denver was a battered crew heading into its rest week. The Broncos had 22 players listed on their injury report before their season-ending game versus Oakland, and that has to be disconcerting. Some of Peyton Manning's numbers down the stretch may confirm, as the final five weeks of the season saw Manning and his offence rank 30th of 32 teams in red-zone completions. The wonky ankle of TE Julius Thomas could be largely responsible for the drop in production, as Thomas had tallied 12 touchdowns in the first nine weeks of the year, but did not score a major since Week 11 when the injury occurred. It all can't fall on Thomas, as there are other talented players on the Denver offence, but something just doesn't seem right with the Broncos these days. We can point at games against the Bengals as a small barometer. Denver was handily beaten 38-27 by Cincinnati in a Week 15 contest that the Broncos needed to secure their division. By comparison, in two games against the Bengals, the Colts went 2-0 by a combined 53-10. Perhaps it is an aging Manning as the veteran QB seems to be counting on his smarts more than his physical abilities these days. That, too, is a concern. Even in his prime years, Manning hasn't performed particularly well in the playoffs, currently sporting an 11-12 overall record in the post-season. And it's not like he's facing a stiff. In fact, when you look at Indy QB Andrew Luck's stats as compared to Manning's, you will find that the two pivots were nearly identical, as Luck threw for 4,761 yards and 40 touchdowns while Peyton had 4,727 yards and 39 touchdowns. Luck also led the top passing offence in the NFL this season, averaging a whopping 406 yards per game. Even in the season opener, when these two met on this field, Luck threw for an impressive 370 yards in a 7-point loss. The Colts are an ascending group that should be up for the challenge this time around.
TAKING: COLTS +7
