Service Plays Saturday 05/16/09

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Thank you, wilheim..

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SCOTT FERRALL'S PAY PICKS:

MIRANDA / WARD PICK FOR SATURDAY

Edison Miranda

ANDRE WARD -330
5/16/2009
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Scott Ferrall's pay picks:

Texas open pick justin leonard 15-1

I have a feeling the texas boy is going to get it done at home in front of the family and friends!
5/17/2009
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S P O R T R E N D S

MLB (2-0 LN)
Phillies -125
DBacks +110
Blue Jays -120
Red Sox -155
 

Bullitt
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Raging Bull

Real Madrid/Villarreal over 3 (Spain La Liga)

Bayern Munich/Hoffenheim over 3 (German Bundesliga)
 
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Underground Sports Connection

<!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->5/16/09

400* Under 9 Braves/Dbax
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Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with the Rockies last night.

Today it's Rachel Alexandra in the Preakness ($25 win and place).

The surplus is 780 sirignanos.
 
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Hondo

May 16, 2009

Hondo's seemingly certain comeback victory with the Brewers was washed out last night in St. Loo so his semi-bulbous wad held firm at 220 cavarrettas.

Today, he'll take another shot against Roy Harvey Oswalt -- 10 units on the Small Bears. Also, he'll pour it on the Brewers again with 10 on Suppan. As for the big race, he'll try once more with Friesen Fire, who did a "reverse place" in the Derby, finishing second to last. Two units to win.
 
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Dave Cokin Bonus Play

(915) CINCINNATI REDS
(916) SAN DIEGO PADRES
Take "(915) CINCINNATI REDS"

Edinson Volquez got knocked around in his last start, but the Reds righty should bounce back as he faces the Padres. San Diego managed to get a win on Friday night, but I expect Cincy to have their way with Josh Geer and I swould look for the Reds to even the series with the win tonight.
 
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Jim Feist Bonus Play

(913) ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS
(914) ATLANTA BRAVES
Take "(914) ATLANTA BRAVES"

There's a reason that Arizona ace prospect Max Scherzer is 0-3 -- He's still learning his craft and the Diamondbacks have no offense. Arizona is in last place despite playing mostly home games. They just got swept at home by the Reds and have lost 9 of 11. Atlanta just finished an 8-game road trip, going 6-2. A good spot for the home team that is playing much better baseball. Play the Braves.
 
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THE SPORTS ADVISORS

NATIONAL LEAGUE

N.Y. Mets (20-15) at San Francisco (18-17)

Randy Johnson (3-3, 5.89 ERA) goes after career victory No. 299 when he takes the mound for the Giants, who continue a four-game weekend series with the streaking Mets and Johan Santana (4-2, 0.78) in a battle of former Cy Young winners at AT&T Park.

After taking Thursday’s series opener 7-4, New York rallied for an 8-6 victory against Tim Lincecum and the Giants on Friday. The Mets are on a 10-2 spurt, which includes four straight road wins. Jerry Manual’s club is on additional hot streaks of 12-3 against N.L. West clubs, 5-1 versus winning teams and 5-1 when playing on Saturday.

San Francisco has now dropped three in a row – all at home – but remains on a 15-9 run, including 9-5 at AT&T Park. The Giants are still also on upticks of 12-6 against the N.L. East and 4-1 versus left-handed starters.

The Mets have dominated this rivalry the last two-plus years, winning 11 of the last 13 battles, including the last seven in a row. New York, which has taken two of three in San Francisco each of the last three seasons, has also won six of its last seven at AT&T Park.

Johnson picked up his 298th career victory in Tuesday’s 11-7 defeat of Washington, despite allowing four runs (three home runs) in just five innings of work. San Francisco is 4-1 in Johnson’s last five starts, including 3-0 at home, where the Big Unit is 3-1 with a 3.00 ERA in his first season with the Giants.

Santana is coming off yet another outstanding start, as he gave up two unearned runs in 6 1/3 innings against the Braves on Tuesday, but suffered an 8-3 defeat as the veteran lefty continued to get little run support. In fact, Santana has allowed just four earned runs this season, but New York has scored a total of 15 runs in his seven outings. Despite the loss to Atlanta, the Mets are still 14-4 in Santana’s last 18 trips to the hill, including 6-1 in his last seven on the highway. Santana is 1-1 with a 0.71 ERA in two road efforts in 2009.

Johnson is 6-6 with a 3.79 ERA in 15 career starts against New York, while Santana is 1-0 with a 2.03 ERA in three career appearances (two starts) against the Giants.

New York carries “over” trends of 8-1 overall (3-0 last three), 5-1-1 on the road, 5-0 against southpaw starters and 5-0-1 versus the N.L. West. However, with Santana on the hill, the “under” is on stretches of 7-1 overall, 5-2 on the road and 4-1 on Saturday. Meanwhile, San Francisco has topped the total in five of its last six overall (all at home), and the over is 12-5-1 in its last 18 home games against lefty starters. However, the Giants’ last four Saturday affairs have stayed low.

Lastly, the over is on a 6-2 roll in this series, with the last five head-to-head clashes at AT&T Park topping the posted total.

ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. METS and OVER


AMERICAN LEAGUE

L.A. Angels (18-16) at Texas (21-14)

Angels ace John Lackey (12-5, 3.75 in 2008) is slated to make his 2009 debut when he pitches opposite the Rangers’ Vicente Padilla (5-2, 4.97) in the middle game of this three-game series at Rangers Ballpark.

Los Angeles is playing solid ball, going 9-2 in its last 11 games, including three straight road wins, and it is 6-1 in its last seven against right-handed starters.

Texas built a 10-3 lead on the Angels on Friday and held on for a 10-8 victory, its fifth consecutive win. The Rangers have surged to the top of the A.L. West standings by winning 11 of 13, going 6-0 at home during this stretch. They’re also 7-1 in their last eight against A.L. West rivals.

The Angels are still 8-4 in the last 12 meetings with the Rangers, and last night’s defeat ended their four-game winning streak in Texas.

Lackey has been on the shelf for six weeks because of elbow inflammation in his right (pitching) elbow. The last time the veteran was on the mound in a big-league contest, he gave up two runs in seven innings of a 3-2 loss at Boston in Game 4 of the American League Divisional Series, a defeat that ended the Angels’ season. Including two postseason games against the Red Sox, L.A. lost six of Lackey’s last seven starts in 2008. However, they’re 20-9 in his last 29 outings on the road, 20-7 in his last 27 against divisional rivals and 6-2 in his last eight trips to the mound on Saturday.

Lackey went 7-2 with a 3.23 ERA in 12 road starts last season, as opposed to 5-3 with a 4.29 ERA in 12 home outings. He’s just 10-10 with a 5.73 ERA in 27 career starts against the Rangers (5-5, 6.00 ERA in 14 starts in Texas). Last year, he faced the Rangers four times, going 1-2 with a 9.31 ERA.

Padilla has been terrific in his last three starts, going 1-1 with a 1.71 ERA (four earned runs allowed in 21 innings), including Monday’s 7-1 victory over the White Sox in which the right-hander yielded just one run and one hit in seven innings. Despite that strong effort, Padilla is just 1-2 with a hefty 8.10 ERA in four home starts this season. He’s also 5-3 with a 4.87 ERA in his career against Los Angeles.

The Rangers are 4-1 in Padilla’s last five starts overall and 11-3 in his last 14 against the A.L. West, but they’ve dropped five of his last seven outings at home, eight of his last 10 on Saturday and four of his last five home starts versus the Halos.

With Lackey pitching, the under is on runs of 7-3 overall and 20-7-3 when he works on the road, but the over is 7-3-1 in his last 11 starts against the Rangers and 5-2-1 in his last eight outings in Texas. Also, the over is 37-18-2 in Padilla’s last 57 starts overall, 11-5 in his last 16 at home and 14-6-1 in his last 21 against the A.L. West.

The under is on streaks of 6-2 for the Angles overall (all against right-handed starters), 5-2 for Texas overall and 6-3 for Texas at home.

ATS ADVANTAGE: TEXAS
 
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Golden Contender

On Saturday the Bonus Play is on the Over in the Colorado-Pittsburgh game.Rotation numbers 911/12 at 7:05 eastern.Both teams have had quiet bats of late.However the total at 8.5 is releatively low when considering the struggles of both starting pitchers home to road dicohtomy in this game.For the Pirates they have I.Snell going tonight.In his home starts vs Colorado he has a 6.23 era while alowing 9 runs in just 13 innings of work,surrendering 19 hits in the process.Both of Snells home starts have gone over this year.For whatever reason the Pirates are an over team on Saturdays going over the total 38 of the last 52 times,including all 5 times this year.Colorado will have A.Cook going in this one and he has a 5.14 era in his lone start vs the Pirates.Look for the bats to awaken in this one. For the Bonus Play go over the 8.5 runs in the Colorado-Pittsburgh game.bol GC
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Primetime Sports Advisors

Risking 2 units on each

Sides
Detroit -128
Cinci -121

Totals
NYY Over 10 -110
Tex Over 10 -103
St Louis Over 9 +113
Philly Over 10 -110
 
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RatedPicks 5/16 MLB

Cleveland Indians +155

Looking at this on paper, this line is to far out of whack. Sure Garza for TB is a STUD at home, with an ERA a drop under 2, and a WHIP .75. BUT thats all that TB has going for them, it ends there. They are 3-11 when Garza starts, and are only 6-8 at home. The Indians have a Stud of their own to face off against in Carl Pavano who is 3-0 in his last starts, and his team is averaging 9+ runs a game ON THE ROAD when he pitches on the road. Pavano has only given up 8 runs TOTAL in his last 3 games, against the White Sox, Tigers and Red Sox, and everyone knows those teams can explode runs in any game.

Pavano is 2-0 against the Rays, while on the Flip Side Garza is 0-2.
Garzas bullpen has a 9.69 ERA, in only 13 innings pitched, giving up 14 runs and 5 home Runs, with 7 Strike Outs and 5 Walks.
Pavano's bullpen counters with a 7.66 ERA, giving up only 19 runs in 22 innings, with 5 home runs, 22 Strike Outs
and 9 walks.
Garza in his last starts against the Indians has given up an average of 6 runs per game.
Pavano has only given up 4 to the Rays.


Colorado Rockies RUN LINE +1.55

Aaron Cook. That should all that needs to be said when he faces the Pirates. He always gets support from all aspects of his team when he faces the Pirates. From his Offense giving him close to 7 runs per game, to his bullpen posting an ERA of 0.89 when he faces the Pirates. Facing off against Ian Snell who's Pirates are only 1-6 in his last 7 starts. This Major Leaguer has NEVER had a winning season in MLB, and his last 2 games he has an ERA just a little over 10. Expect Cook to shut out the Pirates, and for the Rockies to exploit Snell early and often. Take the Run Line in this contest, as Colorado takes it easily on the road.


Red Sox Run Line +105
Red Sox/Mariners OVER 10 -110

These 2 teams can score runs pretty much at will, when either are facing a lack-luster pitcher. The Red Sox have this match-up tonight, when they go against in Garret Olson. We look for Olson to get hammered early and often. Olson is WINLESS vs Boston in 7 starts, and posts a 7.76 ERA over 31 innings. Lets look at that for a moment, he had 7 starts and only pitched 31 innings. He only averages 4 innings before the bullpen takes over, which has been exploited recently for an 8.25 ERA the past 4 outings. Now Boston counters with Josh Beckett, who is back to his winning ways and has a bullpen pitching an ERA of just 1.15 over the last 4 starts. This one goes BIG, as the Red Sox gover BOTH the RUN LINE and the OVER!
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Today's MLB Picks

Milwaukee at St. Louis

The Cardinals look to build on their 10-1 record in Adam Wainwright's last 11 home starts against teams with a winning record. St. Louis is the pick (-145) according to Dunkel, which has the Cards favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-145). Here are all of today's picks.

SATURDAY, MAY 16
Time Posted: 8:30 a.m. EST
Game 901-902: Houston at Chicago Cubs
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Oswalt) 16.194; Cubs (Wells) 14.984
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-110); No Run Line
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+100); N/A
Game 903-904: Milwaukee at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Suppan) 15.027; St. Louis (Wainwright) 15.624
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-145); 9
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-145); Over
Game 905-906: NY Mets at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Santana) 14.837; San Francisco (Johnson) 15.700
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1; 9
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-165); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+155); Over
Game 907-908: LA Dodgers at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Milton) 14.848; Florida (Miller) 15.110
Dunkel Line: Florida by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Florida (-110); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida (-110); Under
Game 909-910: Philadelphia at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Carpenter) 15.600; Washington (Cabrera) 14.238
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1 1/2; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-125); 11
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-125); Under
Game 911-912: Colorado at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Cook) 13.038; Pittsburgh (Snell) 14.330
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-110); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-110); Under
Game 913-914: Arizona at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Scherzer) 15.187; Atlanta (Kawakami) 15.010
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-130); 9
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+120); Over
Game 915-916: Cincinnati at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Volquez) 14.639; San Diego (Geer) 14.789
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-125); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+115); Under
Game 917-918: Minnesota at NY Yankees
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Blackburn) 15.673; NY Yankees (Chamberlain) 17.179
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-185); 10
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-185); Under
Game 919-920: Chicago White Sox at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Colon) 14.531; Toronto (Ray) 14.957
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Toronto (-120); 10
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-120); Under
Game 921-922: Cleveland at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Pavano) 14.362; Tampa Bay (Garza) 16.036
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1 1/2; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-170); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-170); Over
Game 923-924: LA Angels at Texas
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Lackey) 16.416; Texas (Padilla) 17.645
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1; 11
Vegas Line: Texas (-110); 10
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-110); Over
Game 925-926: Oakland at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Braden) 16.682; Detroit (Porcello) 15.595
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Detroit (-130); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+120); Over
Game 927-928: Baltimore at Kansas City
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Hill) 15.828; Kansas City (Davies) 14.108
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-120); 10
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+110); Under
Game 929-930: Boston at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Beckett) 16.421; Seattle (Olson) 14.931
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Boston (-155); 9
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-155); Under
Game 931-932: Philadelphia at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Myers) 14.800; Washington (Olsen) 16.012
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-130); 10
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+120); Over
 

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omalleyandgoldstein

*** They recommend all plays to be 1 unit ***

Soccer: (13-6) (68.42%):

English Premier League

Fulham +250
Aston Villa +155
Everton -143

German Bundesliga

VfL Wolfsburg -175
FC Bayern Munich -222

Italy Serie A

AC Milan [Even]

Spanish La Liga

FC Sevilla +140
Real Madrid +180
 
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Mr. A's

Saturday, May 16, 2009 1:05 PM EST.
Houston Astros (16-18) at Chicago Cubs (20-14)
(R) Roy Oswalt (1-2) vs. (R) Randy Wells (0-0)
Oddsmakers: Chicago as a -150 home favorite with the total listed at 9½ 'over'.

Chicago Cubs -150

Saturday, May 16, 2009 10:10 PM EST.
Boston Red Sox (21-15) at Seattle Mariners (17-19)
(R) Josh Beckett (3-2) vs. (L) Garrett Olson (0-0)
Oddsmakers: Chicago as a -220 home favorite with the total listed at 9 'over'.

Boston Red Sox -150
 

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