Jeff Benton
<HR style="COLOR: #fdde82; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #fdde82" SIZE=1><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->10 Dime: PACKERS (plus the points vs. Bears)
5 Dime: GRIZZLIES (plus the points vs. Lakers)
Packers
Here’s what this play comes down to: After what you’ve seen the last two days in the NFL, are you willing to lay points with a team that needs to win to either enhance its playoff chances or save its season? Well, I’m not. Let’s review what happened on Saturday and Sunday:
The Cowboys were a 4½-point home favorite against the Ravens, with Dallas controlling its playoff destiny. Result: Cowboys lose 33-24.
The Steelers were a three-point road favorite at Tennessee, needing a win to basically wrap up home-field advantage in the AFC. Result: Steelers lose 31-14.
The Eagles were a 5½-point road favorite at Washington, with Philly controlling its playoff destiny. Result: Eagles lose 10-3.
The Vikings were a three-point home favorite against the Falcons, needing a win to clinch the NFC North title. Result: Vikings lose 24-17.
The Jets were a four-point road favorite at the lowly Seahawks, needing a win to maintain control of their destiny in the AFC East. Result: Jets lose 13-3.
The Broncos were a 6½-point home favorite against the slumping Bills, needing a win to wrap up the AFC West title. Result: Broncos lose 30-23.
Finally, the Buccaneers were a four-point home favorite against the Chargers, needing a win to keep their postseason hopes alive. Result: Bucs lose 41-24.
That’s right: An astounding seven teams with everything in the world for which to play suffered outright losses as a favorite! And while the Ravens, Titans, Falcons and Chargers also had a lot on the line in their respective games against the Cowboys, Steelers, Vikings and Bucs, the fact is the favorites failed to get the job done in each contest. In fact, favorites went 5-8 SU and 4-9 ATS on Sunday, and the only favorites that came through this week were the Colts (barely won at 5-9 Jacksonville on Thursday), Dolphins (barely won at 2-11 Kansas City), Patriots (routed Arizona in the snow) and Giants (needed a big rally and overtime to knock off Carolina at home).
All of which brings us back to tonight’s game. With the Vikings losing yesterday, the door was left open for the Bears to snatch away the NFC North championship if they can beat the Packers tonight and win at Houston next week and if Minnesota falls at the Giants. And frankly, I’m not convinced Chicago, which has been inconsistent all season, is ready to deal with that pressure. Don’t forget that the Bears, with their backs to the wall in terms of the playoffs, nearly blew that home game to the Saints 10 days ago.
Now, one thing I am convinced of: Green Bay absolutely WILL show up for this game. Yes, the Packers are 0-4 SU and ATS in their last four games, a nosedive that eliminated them from playoff contention. However, the last three losses were by margins of 4, 3 and 4 points, as Green Bay simply failed to hold leads against the Panthers, Texans and Jaguars. And prior to this drought, the Packers had covered in five straight games. Four of those spread-covers were as an underdog. The fifth? A 37-3 demolition of the Bears as a 3½-point home favorite back on Nov. 16. In that game – which also happens to be Green Bay’s only victory in the last seven weeks – the Packers had 427 total yards, Chicago had 234; the Packers had 200 rushing yards, Chicago had 83; the Packers had 24 first downs, Chicago had nine; and the Packers held the ball for 37½ minutes, Chicago had it for 22½ minutes.
Also, despite their recent struggles to cover pointspreads, the Packers are still 13-5-1 ATS in their last 19 games on the road, 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 as a road underdog, and they’ve cashed in all five of their NFC North games this season! As for the Bears, with last week’s lucky push against the Saints, they’re now just 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games as a home favorite and 2-3 ATS against division rivals this year. Oh, and one more thing: Green Bay is 7-2 ATS in its last nine trips to Soldier Field!
Simply put, I believe the Packers are far better than their 5-9 record, but just haven’t had any kind of fourth-quarter luck whatsoever, as six of their last seven defeats have come by four points or less. They also have not been able to stop the run on defense, allowing 138.2 rushing ypg. However, as noted above, they were able to stop Chicago in the first meeting. Also, tonight they catch a break in that Bears rookie RB Matt Forte (64 rushing yards in the loss at Green Bay) is questionable with an injury.
Bottom line: If I thought for a second that the Packers were going to lay down in this game, I wouldn’t touch ‘em with a 10-foot pole. But there’s no doubt in my mind that Green Bay will come to play and would love nothing more than to put a nail in their archrival’s season. And with the way the Packers thumped the Bears five weeks ago, and with the way NFL favorites have fared this week, I have to take the points.
Was hot last week, very poor this last weekend.
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, The best 1 out there is you yourself
ope:
