StatSystemsSports
Inside The Huddle – Monday
#489 NY GIANTS @ #490 DETROIT
TV: 7:10 PM EST, ESPN
Line: Lions -6.5, Total: 47
The New York Giants debut their new-look offense with hopes of avoiding a repeat of their horrific start to the 2013 campaign when they visit the Detroit Lions on Monday night in the season opener for both teams. New York put itself out of playoff contention early last year, losing its first six games thanks largely to its shoddy offensive play. The Giants led the National Football League with 44 giveaways, including a league-high 27 interceptions by Eli Manning, and ranked 28th in scoring with 294 points.
Offensive coordinator Kevin Gilbride promptly retired after the season and New York brought in Ben McAdoo from Green Bay to install his version of the West Coast offense - a system with which Manning struggled during the preseason. Detroit is seeking just its third winning season in the last 15 after losing six of its last seven games in 2013 - including each of its final four. Coach Jim Schwartz took the fall for the meltdown and was replaced by Jim Caldwell, whose offensive-minded approach could do wonders for a team boasting the likes of Calvin Johnson, Matthew Stafford and Reggie Bush.
•ABOUT THE GIANTS (2013: 7-9, 3rd NFC East): New York will be without its 2014 first-round pick as wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. will watch from the sideline with a hamstring injury that limited him throughout the preseason. Guard Geoff Schwartz will miss the first half of the season as he was placed on injured reserve/designated to return with a dislocated big toe on his right foot. To replace him, New York signed veteran offensive lineman Adam Snyder, who was released by San Francisco on Saturday.
•ABOUT THE LIONS (2013: 7-9, 3rd NFC North): Stafford will have a second option after Johnson this season as Detroit added Golden Tate, who made a career-high 64 receptions for Super Bowl champion Seattle last season. That's good news for Johnson, who missed two games in 2013 due to a nagging knee injury and saw action in only one preseason contest in order to maintain his good health. "My body feels great," the superstar said. "This is as good as I've felt in a while." Stafford hopes the duo will help him eclipse the 4,500-yard plateau for a fourth straight season.
•PREGAME NOTES: New York has won each of the last three games in the all-time series, including a 23-20 overtime triumph on the road last season.... Manning was sacked a career-high 39 times in 2013.... The Lions have qualified for the postseason just once in the last 14 seasons.... Free agency has allowed the Giants to upgrade the secondary. Cornerbacks Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and Walter Thurmond along with improving holdover Prince Amukamara and veteran safety Antrel Rolle could make it difficult to throw on New York, which did bid goodbye to 2013 sack leader Justin Tuck and tackle Linval Joseph.
Detroit, despite their overall struggles, have been pretty good at making money right out of the gate of late, going 8-3 against the spread over their last eleven season openers. The Giants have been pretty good on the big stage recently, going 8-4 ATS in their last twelve appearances on Monday Night Football, but have lost five straight ATS when they open the season on the road. Game #1 underdogs on MNF are 30-13 versus the number, including 15-4 ATS in non-division clashes, since 1980. New York is 7-0 ATS in games against the NFC North, while the Lions own an 0-7 ATS record at home versus non-divisional NFC opponents. The series visitor is a perfect 8-0 ATS.
•KEY STATS
--NY GIANTS are 18-5 ATS (+12.5 Units) in road games against NFC North division opponents since 1992.
The average score was NY GIANTS 20.8, OPPONENT 18.5.
--NY GIANTS are 29-13 OVER (+14.7 Units) in the first two weeks of the season since 1992.
The average score was NY GIANTS 23.0, OPPONENT 24.6.
--NY GIANTS are 29-12 UNDER (+15.8 Units) in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 45.5 since 1992.
The average score was NY GIANTS 20.8, OPPONENT 23.3.
--NY GIANTS are 12-4 UNDER (+7.6 Units) the 1rst half total versus the first half line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was NY GIANTS 8.5, OPPONENT 12.3.
--NY GIANTS are 11-3 UNDER (+7.7 Units) the 1rst half total as an underdog versus the 1rst half line over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was NY GIANTS 8.5, OPPONENT 11.2.
--NY GIANTS are 10-2 UNDER (+7.8 Units) the 1rst half total against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was NY GIANTS 8.8, OPPONENT 11.3.
--NY GIANTS are 9-1 UNDER (+7.9 Units) the 1rst half total in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was NY GIANTS 8.9, OPPONENT 10.8.
--DETROIT is 23-44 ATS (-25.4 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
The average score was DETROIT 23.7, OPPONENT 20.1.
--DETROIT is 10-2 UNDER (+7.8 Units) when playing on Monday night since 1992.
The average score was DETROIT 16.8, OPPONENT 20.3.
--DETROIT is 23-44 against the 1rst half line (-25.4 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points versus the first half line since 1992.
The average score was DETROIT 11.8, OPPONENT 10.7.
--DETROIT is 10-1 UNDER (+8.9 Units) the 1rst half total when playing on Monday night since 1992.
The average score was DETROIT 7.6, OPPONENT 10.8.
•COACHING TRENDS
--TOM COUGHLIN is 22-9 UNDER (+12.1 Units) in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points as the coach of NY GIANTS.
The average score was NY GIANTS 21.9, OPPONENT 23.3.
--TOM COUGHLIN is 43-24 UNDER (+16.5 Units) the 1rst half total as a road underdog of 3.5 points or less versus the 1rst half line in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was COUGHLIN 9.5, OPPONENT 11.6.
--TOM COUGHLIN is 25-10 UNDER (+13.9 Units) the 1rst half total as a road underdog of 2 to 3.5 points versus the 1rst half line in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was COUGHLIN 8.9, OPPONENT 12.0.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--DETROIT is 4-4 against the spread versus NY GIANTS since 1992.
--NY GIANTS is 5-3 straight up against DETROIT since 1992.
--5 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1992.
--NY GIANTS is 5-3 versus the first half line when playing against DETROIT since 1992.
--5 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.
--Underdog is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
--Road team is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--NYG are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.
--NYG are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 versus NFC.
--Over is 4-1 in NYG last 5 games in Week #1.
--DET is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games.
--DET is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games in Week #1.
--Under is 7-0 in DET last 7 Monday games.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:
--In past games, the underdog covered the spread 44 times, while the favorite covered the spread 39 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 70 times, while the underdog won straight up 20 times. 39 games went under the total, while 11 games went over the total. *EDGE against the total =UNDER.
--In past games, the underdog covered first half line 70 times, while the favorite covered first half line 69 times. *No EDGE. 61 games went under first half total, while 26 games went over first half total. *EDGE against first half total =UNDER.
•SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS: Play Under - Any team where the first half total is between 21.5 and 24.5 (DETROIT) - in the first week of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses, marginal losing team from last season who won 40-49% of their games.
(33-9 since 1983.) (78.6%, +23.1 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 20.2
The average first half score in these games was: Team 9.1, Opponent 8.3 (Total first half points scored = 17.5)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (1-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (4-0).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (7-1).
_______________________________________________
Inside the Huddle Subscription...
2014-15 NFL and NCAAF Best Bets
Looking for an advantage every day, simply signup for our NFL and NCAAF Special offer. Lock up the best winning selections in the business today, from now through Super Bowl XLIX on Sunday, February 1st, 2015 at University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale, AZ. From now, until kickoff of Week #2 on Thursday 9/11 with Pittsburgh traveling to Baltimore, we're offering you the chance to get all our Top Rated Selections from our team of expert handicappers for ONLY $1799.
This offer includes everything we release on the Gridiron starting with the "Expert's 2014 Consensus" Five *Star Conference Game of the Year, along with our "HUGE *Six-Star NFL Mismatch" of the Season, all of our 1st Half Selections, and every Star-Rated release during the campaign.
Plus as an "added bonus for signing up today" you will receive the rest of the MLB season FREE! Our daily (MLB, NFL and NCAACF) StatSystems Reports - the #1 Rated Betting Publication in the country today, along with our 2014 Football Yearbook, a Mega Guide of everything you need to know. "Remember, if you're going to invest your very hard earned dollars in September up until February, this is the package you need.... It's affordable, and loaded with winning information!"
You may recall pros like Stan 'The Man, Vegas Insider Ryan Taylor, Systems Analyst's James Vogel, Larry Hertner and William Stillman, along with our Expert Handicapper Jude Ravo on an absolute tear on the Gridiron, Hardwood and Major League Baseball as we head into Football Season! "You'll need to move quick on this one though." On Sunday (September, 14th), the cost for this package will increase to $2199.00; which is a bargain itself, when considering the number of games involved, along with the net profit won by our team of Pro's at the #1 Rated Sports Site in the Industry today!
"Don't make a move without it.... You'll be Real Glad You Did!"
________________________________________________
#491 SAN DIEGO @ #492 ARIZONA
TV: 10:20 PM EST, ESPN
Line: Cardinals -3, Total: 46.5
The San Diego Chargers look to get off to a better start in 2014 as they visit University of Phoenix Stadium to take on the Arizona Cardinals in Week #1 of Monday Night's Football twin-bill. San Diego needed to finish 2013 with a four-game winning streak in order to qualify for the playoffs, where it defeated Cincinnati in a wild-card game before falling to AFC West rival Denver in the divisional round. The Chargers rode the strong play of Philip Rivers, who completed a league-leading and career-high 69.5 percent of his passes en route to Comeback Player of the Year honors.
The Cardinals reached double digits in victories for just the second time in their 26 years in Arizona but failed to reach the postseason due to the strength of the NFC West. The club went 2-4 against division rivals in 2013, including a 23-20 loss to San Francisco in the season finale. Arizona thrived at home last season, going 6-2 while allowing an impressive 17.8 points per contest, but could be without starting running back Andre Ellington, who hurt his foot Thursday and did not practice Friday.
•ABOUT THE CHARGERS (2013: 9-7, 3rd AFC West): San Diego hopes to improve upon its rank of 23rd in total defense with the return of linebacker Dwight Freeney and the addition of cornerback Brandon Flowers. Freeney had his 2013 campaign abruptly ended when he tore his quadriceps in Week #4 while Flowers joins the club from division rival Kansas City, where he recorded a career-worst one interception but registered a personal-best six sacks. The Chargers were fifth in the league with an average of 393.3 total yards and could put up even better numbers with another strong effort from Rivers and a backfield that features three solid options in Ryan Mathews, Danny Woodhead and newcomer Donald Brown.
•ABOUT THE CARDINALS (2013: 10-6, 3rd NFC West): Carson Palmer had a strong initial season in the desert, throwing for a career-high 4,274 yards while completing 63.3 percent of his passes - his best mark since 2007 while with Cincinnati (64.9). Arizona's defense was a strong point in 2013, ranking sixth in both yards allowed (317.4) and sacks (47), but it took a major hit afterward. Karlos Dansby exited via free agency and fellow linebacker Daryl Washington was suspended for the entire 2014 campaign after violating the league's substance policy a second time while defensive end Darnell Dockett suffered a season-ending knee injury during training camp.
•PREGAME NOTES: Arizona hasn't faced San Diego since a 41-10 road loss in 2010, its third consecutive defeat in the series. The Cardinals are 3-9 all-time against the Chargers.... Arizona CB Patrick Peterson signed a five-year, $70 million contract extension during the offseason.... Ellington averaged a league-best 5.53 yards per carry during his rookie season in 2013.... Mathews played in every game for the first time in his four-year career, rushing for 1,255 yards and six touchdowns. Woodhead caught 76 passes for 605 yards, finishing second in both categories at his position.
Arizona is 6-15-1 all-time on Monday nights and, like its quarterback, owns a three-game losing streak dating to 2008. The Cardinals’ MNF winning percentage (.295) is the second worst in the NFL since the 1970 merger, according to our NFL database here at StatSystems Sports. To make matters worse, the Cardinals are 1-8 on MNF since moving to Arizona in 1988 and are 1-6 at home during that span. The Chargers come into Arizona treating MNF as an old hat. They are 8-5 since 2006 under Philip Rivers, who is a career 64.8-percent passer on Mondays. He’s thrown 24 touchdowns to 10 interceptions.
•KEY STATS
--SAN DIEGO is 55-36 ATS (+15.4 Units) as a road underdog of 7 points or less since 1992.
The average score was SAN DIEGO 21.0, OPPONENT 22.6.
--SAN DIEGO is 28-14 ATS (+12.6 Units) in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 45.5 since 1992.
The average score was SAN DIEGO 25.7, OPPONENT 25.5.
--SAN DIEGO is 23-10 ATS (+12.0 Units) in dome games since 1992.
The average score was SAN DIEGO 22.4, OPPONENT 22.3.
--SAN DIEGO is 40-23 ATS (+14.7 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
The average score was SAN DIEGO 21.7, OPPONENT 22.0.
--SAN DIEGO is 54-33 OVER (+17.7 Units) in non-conference games since 1992.
The average score was SAN DIEGO 23.1, OPPONENT 23.2.
--SAN DIEGO is 9-1 UNDER (+7.9 Units) the 1rst half total versus the 1rst half line in road games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was SAN DIEGO 9.5, OPPONENT 10.5.
--SAN DIEGO is 6-0 UNDER (+6.0 Units) the 1rst half total in a road game where the first half total is 22.5 or higher over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was SAN DIEGO 8.5, OPPONENT 11.3.
--ARIZONA is 26-50 against the 1rst half line (-29.0 Units) in September games since 1992.
The average score was ARIZONA 7.5, OPPONENT 12.7.
--ARIZONA is 30-55 against the 1rst half line (-30.5 Units) in non-conference games since 1992.
The average score was ARIZONA 8.4, OPPONENT 12.9.
--ARIZONA is 30-52 against the 1rst half line (-27.2 Units) in the first month of the season since 1992.
The average score was ARIZONA 7.7, OPPONENT 12.7.
•COACHING TRENDS
--MIKE MCCOY is 13-5 UNDER (+7.5 Units) the 1rst half total versus the first half line in all games as the coach of SAN DIEGO.
The average score was SAN DIEGO 11.1, OPPONENT 11.0.
--BRUCE ARIANS is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was ARIANS 26.7, OPPONENT 16.7.
--BRUCE ARIANS is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in dome games in all games he has coached since 1992.
The average score was ARIANS 24.9, OPPONENT 20.3.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--SAN DIEGO is 4-3 against the spread versus ARIZONA since 1992.
--SAN DIEGO is 5-2 straight up against ARIZONA since 1992.
--4 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1992.
--ARIZONA is 4-3 versus the first half line when playing against SAN DIEGO since 1992.
--5 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.
--Road team is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--SD is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Monday games.
--SD is 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games in September.
--Over is 4-1 in SD last 5 games in September.
--ARI is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Monday games.
--ARI is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in Week #1.
--Under is 8-2 in ARI last 10 games in September.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:
--In past games, the favorite covered the spread 41 times, while the underdog covered the spread 35 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 46 times, while the underdog won straight up 31 times. 39 games went over the total, while 29 games went under the total. *No EDGE.
--In past games, the favorite covered first half line 73 times, while the underdog covered first half line 65 times. *No EDGE. 62 games went over first half total, while 56 games went under first half total. *No EDGE.
•SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS: Play Under - Any team where the first half total is between 21.5 and 24.5 (SAN DIEGO) - terrible defensive team from last season - allowed 5.7 or more yards/play, incredible offense from last season - averaged 6.0 or more yards/play, in the first week of the season.
(54-25 over the last 5 seasons.) (68.4%, +26.5 units. Rating = 2*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 22.9
The average first half score in these games was: Team 11.2, Opponent 10.4 (Total first half points scored = 21.6)
The situation's record this season is: (0-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (39-14).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (79-40).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (137-85).
______________________________________
w-thumbs!^
