Service Plays Monday 9/29/14

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Football Crusher
Kansas City Chiefs +3 over New England Patriots
(System Record: 9-2, lost last 4 games)
Overall Record: 9-12-1

Rest of the Plays
Kansas City Chiefs + New England Patriots UNDER 46.5


 

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Soccer Crusher
Arsenal de Sarandi + Godoy Cruz UNDER 2.5
This match is happening in Brazil
(System Record: 639-22, won last 4 games and a push)
Overall Record: 639-532-96
 
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Chiefs battle Patriots

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (2-1) at KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (1-2)

Kickoff: Monday, 8:35 p.m. ET

Line and Total: New England -3, Total: 45

The Chiefs look to get back to .500 when they host the Patriots on Monday night.

New England hosted the Raiders last Sunday and won 16-9 in a defensive slugfest. The club could play a similar game Monday night against a grind-it-out team in Kansas City. The Chiefs are coming off of a 34-15 road victory over the Dolphins, and will now look to ground-and-pound against the Patriots. New England's offensive line has not looked good thus far in allowing seven sacks, and Kansas City has some fierce pass rushers that can put serious pressure on the quarterback.

These teams have not met since Nov. 21, 2011, when the Patriots beat the Chiefs 34-3 as 17-point favorites at home, but New England is 1-4 SU (but 4-1 ATS) at Arrowhead Stadium since 1992. As the coach of the Patriots, Bill Belichick is 16-5 ATS in road games against defenses that allow at least 4.5 yards per carry. Andy Reid, however, is 114-83 ATS against conference opponents since beginning his outstanding career as a head coach. RB Jamaal Charles (ankle) and S Eric Berry (ankle) are listed as questionable for the Chiefs, while New England could be without CB Alfonzo Dennard (shoulder).

The Patriots are coming off of a 16-9 victory over the Raiders and their offensive line play really could have cost them the game. Tom Brady (632 pass yards, 5.5 YPA, 3 TD, 0 INT) was sacked twice in the game and had no time to throw the ball at all as he was pressured all game. He still finished the game 24-of-37 for 234 yards and a touchdown. Brady is going to have to get rid of the ball quicker against the Chiefs or he’ll end up eating dirt often on Monday. When Brady is throwing the ball this season, it’s mostly been in the direction of WR Julian Edelman (22 rec, 260 yards, 1 TD). Edelman had 10 catches for 84 yards in the win over Oakland and is a very good route runner that should be able to find holes against an underperforming Chiefs’ defense. TE Rob Gronkowski (11 rec, 116 yards, 2 TD) is also beginning to look more and more healthy by the week. He had three receptions for 44 yards and a touchdown against Oakland and played nearly half the snaps.

What has been winning games for the Patriots has been their defense. New England leads the NFL in passing defense (169 YPG, 5.0 YPA) and red-zone efficiency (33%), while ranking third in total defense (273 YPG) and is tied for fourth in scoring defense (16.3 PPG). The Pats have also done a great job stopping the run during their two-game win streak, holding opponents to a mere 60.5 rush YPG on 3.0 YPC. CB Darrelle Revis (1 INT) has been everything he was hyped up to be in New England, and he should make life on Chiefs QB Alex Smith very tough Monday night.

Kansas City has gotten off to a poor start after being last season’s breakout team, but the club did collect its first win of the season in Week 3, defeating the Dolphins 34-15 on the road. QB Alex Smith (643 pass yards, 4 TD, 3 INT) was excellent in that game, going 19-of-25 for 186 yards with three touchdowns and zero interceptions. The one negative was that he took five sacks, increasing his total to 11 for the season. Smith is not going to take many chances against a relentless Patriots’ pass defense. He will manage the offense and rely on his running game to do the heavy lifting. Starting at running back for the Chiefs could be RB Knile Davis (214 rush yards, 3.9 YPC, 3 TD) if top RB Jamaal Charles (23 rush yards, 2.6 YPC, 0 TD) can’t go because of an ankle injury. Charles is the best running back in football when healthy, but the K.C. offense has not missed a step with Davis filling in. He rushed 32 times for 132 yards and a touchdown in the win over Miami and could do very well again on Monday against a Patriots defense that allowed 191 rushing yards to those same Dolphins in Week 1.

Kansas City’s defense is allowing a solid 223.7 passing yards per game (T-10th in NFL), but has surrendered 130.3 rushing yards per game (23rd in league) on a hefty 5.1 yards per carry (28th in NFL). Their performance against the Dolphins was their best of the year as a unit and they will need to carry that momentum into this matchup against the Pats. K.C. has not forced a single turnover yet this year, and New England hasn't had a giveaway since Week 1.
 
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Patriots or Chiefs? NFL Bloggers debate who will cover Monday night

This week, Monday Night Football heads to Kansas City as the Chiefs host the New England Patriots. It will be the first meeting between the two teams since November of 2011, when the Pats prevailed 34-3, covering as 17-point home favorites.

The Pats opened as 4-point road faves this time around, but oddsmakers adjusted the line to +3.5 and then to +3, where it currently stands.

In order to get a grasp on this primetime matchup, we’ve enlisted the help of those who know these teams the best. Expert NFL bloggers Richard Hill of New England blog “Pats Pulpit” and Joel Thorman of Kansas City blog “Arrowhead Pride” strap on the pads and debate which team will not only win, but cover the spread Monday night.

WHY NEW ENGLAND WILL COVER

Hungry on offense

The offense hasn't functioned well over the past three weeks. Even if the Patriots get a lead, they won't be easing up at any point. Expect a ruthless assault by the Patriots offense that can put points on the board.

Elite defense

Even if the Patriots can't post their "usual" 30 points per game, the defense will do their part holding down the backend of the spread. Chandler Jones and Dont'a Hightower are going to become household names on Monday night and Darrelle Revis will retake the crown as top cornerback in the league against Dwayne Bowe.

Little to fear

While the fans might be incredible and they might take back the record for loudest fans, it still comes down to the play on the field. Outside of the Chiefs defensive line, there's little to fear. Their tight end, Kelce, might be great. Their running back, Charles, might be healthy. There are question marks everywhere, and hopefully Bill Belichick has the answer key.

WHY KANSAS CITY WILL COVER

Chiefs front seven can get to Tom Brady

The Chiefs employ pass rushers Justin Houston and Tamba Hali coming around the edge. First round pick Dee Ford will get in on a dozen or so snaps. Dontari Poe is in the middle. The Chiefs have the personnel to disrupt a Patriots offensive line that has had its issues protecting Tom Brady.

Chiefs have the Arrowhead advantage

Granted, the Chiefs have not been the hottest team at their own home field lately. But with a raucous home crowd behind them on national TV, you can believe the Chiefs will come to play. Based on the 20 games we've seen from Andy Reid in Kansas City, the Chiefs are unlikely to get blown out. This will be a close game.

The Chiefs have to get a turnover...eventually

With the Chiefs ability to pressure Brady, you have to think a turnover is coming, whether that's an interception or a forced fumble. They have yet to create a turnover yet this season which is so out of whack from what we saw last year. There's no way the Chiefs are going a quarter of their season without a turnover ... right?
 
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Monday Night Football: Patriots at Chiefs

New England Patriots at Kansas City Chiefs (+3, 46.5)

Tom Brady is taking plenty of punishment through the first three games of the 2014 season, but the New England Patriots have managed to put together back-to-back wins. The Patriots hope to have some of their problems along the offensive line sorted out when they visit the Kansas City Chiefs on Monday. The Chiefs picked up their first win last week and are hoping to have running back Jamaal Charles at full strength by Monday.

New England lost longtime offensive line coach Dante Scarnecchia to retirement in the offseason and traded away Pro Bowl guard Logan Mankins late in training camp, and those voids are proving difficult to fill. That struggling line needs to figure out a way to stop Kansas City linebackers Tamba Hali and Justin Houston, who have combined for five sacks in the first three weeks. The Chiefs are fourth in the NFL with nine sacks and got to Ryan Tannehill four times in last week's 34-15 victory over the Miami Dolphins.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: Books opened the Chiefs +4 home dogs, but that is now +3. The total opened 44.5 and is up to 46.5.

INJURY REPORT: Patriots - S Don Jones (Questionable, hamstring), CB Alfonzo Dennard (Questionable, shoulder), WR Aaron Dobson (Questionable, foot). Chiefs - RB Jamaal Charles (Questionable, ankle), S Eric Berry (Doubtful, heel).

POWER RANKINGS: Patriots (-3) + Chiefs (+0.25) + home field (-3.0) = Patriots -0.25

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-70s with mostly clear skies. Wind will blow toward the NW endzone at 5 mph.

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "New England survived a scare from Oakland to move into a first place tie with Buffalo. Patriots have covered five of their last six on Monday night. Kansas City off its first win of the season but consecutive games against Patriots and 49ers will be a challenge. Chiefs 0-6 ATS L6 home games." Matt Fargo.

ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS, 1-2 O/U): New England’s defense carried it to back-to-back wins the last two weeks, holding Minnesota and Oakland to a total of 16 points. Brady, who has yet to pass for 250 or more yards through the first three games while being sacked seven times, did not point the finger directly at the line but suggested the offense as a whole is struggling. “There are a lot of things we have to ramp up,” Brady told reporters. “It’s not just one thing on our offense, and we’re trying to identify the things we need to do better. … It’s not really one area, it’s all areas.”

ABOUT THE CHIEFS (1-2 SU, 2-1 ATS, O/U 1-2): Charles (high ankle sprain) was inactive last week after totaling nine carries in the first two games but practiced on a limited basis Thursday. Kansas City reached deep into its reservoir of skill players at Miami and came up with some capable replacements in running back Knile Davis, who ran for 132 yards and a score, and Joe McKnight, who caught a pair of TD passes from Alex Smith. “You’re bringing new guys to work in there and they’re just learning the system but they are playing their hearts out trying to make sure they get everything down,” Chiefs coach Andy Reid said. “Again, I’m proud of the guys for the way they are filling in and doing their job.”

TRENDS:

* Under is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
* Patriots are 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings.
* Patriots are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games in Week 4.
* Under is 5-0 in Chiefs last five Monday games.

CONSENSUS: 51 percent of bettors are behind the Patriots.
 
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Mighty Quinn

Mighty missed with the Titans (+7 1/2) on Sunday and likes the Patriots on Monday.

The deficit is 518 sirignanos.
 
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Hondo

No Pat hand for Hondo

The great Randy Bullock heroically booted a late 50-yard field goal on Sunday, giving Hondo a cover with the Texans that reduced his accounts payable to 1,575 buchanans.

Monday night: Mr. Aitch will back be singing hail to the Chiefs — 10 units on Kansas City to beat the spot against the struggling Patsies.
 
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EZWINNERS

EZ's Plays For Monday

A small profit day in the NFL on Sunday. One Monday Night Football play on my card for Monday. Best of luck.

-EZ

2* (274) Kansas City Chiefs +3

In a very suprise move the Patriots traded away veteran offensive lineman Logan Mankins to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the season was about to begin. This move is not looking so good now as the New England offensive line has been pretty leaky. Quarterback Tom Brady has taken a beating in two of the first three games, and now this struggling line must deal with pressure from Tamba Hali, Justin Houston and Dontari Poe. The Chiefs offense has not been great so far this season, but they seemed to get things going in their win over the Dolphins. KC also shouldn't have to win a shoot out as the Patriots offense doesn't look like the New England offenses of old as they are averaging just 301 yards and 22 points per game. Take the points.
 
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Colin Coherd

Blazing Five

Pick/Score/Wise Guys

Kansas City Chiefs +3.5/Kansas City Chiefs 23 New England Patriots 24/Agreement
 
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Dr. Bob

I have added Kansas City +3.5 -120 for 2-Stars in the Monday night game.

(274)**Kansas City +3.5 -120 for 2-Stars up to +3.5 -130
 
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[h=1]Today's NFL Picks[/h] [h=2]New England at Kansas City[/h] The Patriots head to Kansas City tonight to face a Chiefs team that is 0-6 ATS in its last 6 home games. New England is the pick (-3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Patriots favored by 6. Dunkel Pick: New England (-3 1/2). Here are all of this week's picks.
MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 29
Time Posted: 10:00 a.m. EST (9/24)
Game 273-274: New England at Kansas City (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New England 139.145; Kansas City 133.380
Dunkel Line: New England by 6; 41
Vegas Line: New England by 3 1/2; 45
Dunkel Pick: New England (-3 1/2); Under
 

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