STATSYSTEMS SPORTS MLB REPORT
MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 15th 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Monday, 9/15/14 MLB Information *****
(ALL RESULTS VS. ML) - Against The Money-Line - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2014 Major League Baseball season we will analyze all of your daily baseball action, featuring on hot and cold pitchers, hot and cold teams, over/unders and home plate umpire trends. We will also highlight some of our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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MLB Betting News and Notes - Week #25
•Mat Latos Is Unlikely To Make Another Start This Season: Reds right-hander Mat Latos was scratched from his scheduled start Friday against the Brewers due to a bone bruise in his pitching elbow. It’s not believed to be a serious injury, but the regular season is over in two weeks and Cincinnati enters play Sunday with a record of 71-78. So there’s no reason to push it. Reds manager Bryan Price spoke on Latos’ status Saturday to John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer. “We’re not going to try to force feed Mat his last few starts if he’s not feeling really good,” Price said.
“It doesn’t make much sense for us. I’d like him to pitch, but I don’t want to exacerbate an existing issue. He’ll have to come quite a ways to make that next start.” Latos will be arbitration-eligible for the final time this winter. He can become a free agent heading into 2016. The 26-year-old got a late start to the 2014 campaign due to knee and elbow issues but wound up posting a strong 3.25 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in 16 starts. He has a 3.31 ERA (117 ERA+) in 81 total starts for the Reds.
•Cuban slugger Yasmani Tomas to command $100 million? Yasmani Tomas, 23, could be the next Cuban defector to hit it big, record-breakingly big, on Major League Baseball’s free agent market. Via Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe... According to one team’s international scout, the latest Cuban slugger could command as much as $100 million. The scout said Tomas has gotten himself in shape and if he performs well at his showcase later in the month, the money will get “really high.” Tomas is susceptible to breaking stuff. His legal documentation has just about cleared. Cafardo says the Phillies “could go hard on him” but the Red Sox and “several other teams” have interest.
Tomas defected from Cuba in June and was cleared for employment last week by the U.S. Department of Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control. The big-bodied corner outfielder batted .301/.333/.580 with 16 homers in 69 games as a 20-year-old in Cuba’s Serie Nacional back in 2011 and was a standout in the 2013 World Baseball Classic. Rusney Castillo’s recent seven-year, $72.5 million pact with the Boston Red Sox is the current record for a Cuban signee. Jose Abreu got a six-year, $68 million contract from the Chicago White Sox last October and Yasiel Puig received a seven-year, $42 million deal from the Los Angeles Dodgers in June 2012.
•Jake Peavy’s Acquisition Giant For San Francisco: San Francisco Giants general manager Brian Sabean is known for his spectacular midseason moves that have yielded two championships in the last four years. He obtained two lower-profile players in Cody Ross in 2010 and Marco Scutaro in 2012 to make significant contributions toward becoming World Series champions. Could Jake Peavy be the 2014 version? “He’s been a godsend to us,” said Sabean. “Very timely.” Peavy, of course, was once a big name, as a young starting pitcher in San Diego, where he won the National League Cy Young Award. That was 2007. It’s been a long time. It’s also been a long time since Peavy was an impact pitcher. Time has worn him down, diminished some of his once-dominating stuff.
When he left Boston in a deal for pitchers Edwin Escobar and Heath Hembree on July 26, Peavy brought to San Francisco a 1-9 record and 4.72 ERA. He had allowed 20 home runs. But while he left his heart in Boston, he brought his veteran know-how to San Francisco, where he’s 5-4 with a 2.29 ERA in nine starts, including 5-1 with a 1.12 ERA in his last six starts. But the Giants should beware of Peavy’s postseason record. It’s been one aspect of his career that’s trended downward. Though he helped the Red Sox after he was obtained on July 30, 2013, with a 4-1 record in 10 regular-season starts, overall he’s 0-3 with a 9.27 ERA in the postseason. It just hasn’t been his thing.
Peavy, however, has stabilized a rotation that includes Madison Bumgarner and Tim Hudson. Yusmeiro Petit, a reliever most of the season, has made nine good starts and recently had an 84-pitch complete game. He also had a stretch of retiring 46 straight batters. Those four pitchers should provide a formidable rotation down the stretch. It’s too bad Peavy wasn’t scheduled to pitch this weekend because he’s been a Dodger killer. Over his career, he’s 14-3 against them with a 2.28 ERA over 26 starts.
Peavy has brought energy to the team and he’s kept the Giants in many games they’ve been able to pull out. “He brings a lot of intensity, he brings a lot of energy, he brings a lot of veteran leadership, he brings a lot of guts,” MVP candidate Hunter Pence said last week. “He’s been a big charge to this run we’ve made. That energy is exciting to be around. It’s a different dugout when he’s in it.” Said Buster Posey, “He’s a vocal guy. We don’t have a ton of vocal guys on the team. When he gets to saying things, people will listen.” Peavy was a positive influence in Boston, as well. It’s just that the results weren’t there. Peavy pitched better than 1-9, and when he first got to the Giants he had the same buzzard’s luck, but that has turned.
Peavy never clicked with catcher A.J. Pierzynski in Boston, after they had their troubles in Chicago. There was always a lot of friction. Peavy has struck up a good relationship with Posey, who seems to handle him well. There have been few shakeoffs. While there were a few teams that were interested in Peavy, only the Angels and Giants really stepped up. The Angels had some interest for depth purposes, and they probably could have used him with ace Garrett Richards and Tyler Skaggs out for the season. But the Giants scouted Peavy and understood his issues in Boston, and they felt that with his familiarity with Bruce Bochy, who had managed him in his glory days in San Diego, that the Giants would get more out of him.
And that has been the case. “He seems more comfortable in the National League,” said a rival GM. “There’s no DH. Facing the pitcher all helps. It can’t hurt. But he probably made a few adjustments. He hasn’t made a lot of mistakes with pitches like he did in Boston. Another great Sabean move. Right guy. Right time.” Peavy, a free agent at the end of the season, wants to pitch beyond this year. He was hoping that would be with the Red Sox, but it appears he has a chance to stick with the Giants if things continue to go well. Peavy is making $14.5 million this season. Overpaid? You bet. But at least he’s living up to some of the contract.
Most baseball people feel that Peavy is best served staying in the National League and being that six-inning pitcher at the middle to end of a rotation. In that role, Peavy could still be effective since he’s only 33 years old. The feeling is he would garner a two-year deal at best, and that likely would be fine with Peavy. Most baseball people thought the guy who was in Boston was just about washed up, but the Giants, who kept sending scouts to watch his outings, saw something left in him. Now the Giants are drawing praise for a scouting job well done. Peavy was always one of those guys who was good for a good team but in the way for a lousy team. Now he’s back with a good team and the adrenaline is flowing a tick more than it was in Boston. Another Sabean gem?
•Todd Frazier Having Career Year On Basepath: Todd Frazier's season is Exhibit A in Reds manager Bryan Price's increased emphasis on the running game. Frazier stole his 20th base Friday night. The last two years he stole a total of nine -- three in 2012 and six last year. Frazier sets goals for himself each year. Stealing 20 was not among them -- his top total as a professional was 17 in 2011 at Triple-A Louisville -- but he did want to be more aggressive on the bases. "I'm happy about the way I run the bases," he said. "I take it seriously. I want to make myself a really good base-runner. Getting 20 is pretty cool. I got a lot of text messages from friends and family. I'm very excited. "You think about the team stuff. We're not where we want to be. But you have individual goals. That's something that I went over what I wanted. I'm happy about that."
Frazier is not a burner, but he has run effectively in the past. "In college, I averaged 25 to 30," he said. "When I got to the minor leagues, it just dipped off every year. I never really had a green light before. You kind of put it on yourself to be a good base-runner." With the 20th steal, Frazier become the third Red who played primarily third to have a 20-20 year. He went into Saturday with 25 home runs in addition to the 20 steals. The others are Aaron Boone (26 homers, 32 steals in the 2002) and Chris Sabo (25 homers, 25 steals in 1990). Frazier's 20th came unconventionally. Milwaukee's Kyle Lohse threw to first when Frazier broke, but he was able to beat the relay to second.
"I try to time my steals and get the early break," he said. "I got the early break -- slight hesitation will get you that base." Frazier is not the only Red to increase his total. Going into Saturday, Jay Bruce had 12 in 14 attempts. He stole seven last year and averaged six a year over his career. Zack Cozart had seven in seven tries. He did not attempt a steal last year. The Reds had 120 steals going into Saturday after stealing 67 all of last year. Billy Hamilton has a lot to do with that, but Price pushed the running game. "One of the things we've tried to do with our group is exploit the strength of our players," Price said. "...That is a large part is combining instincts with opportunity. If they weren't good, instinctive players on the bases, they'd be less likely to be given the opportunity to steal bases."
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Betting Notes - Monday
National League
•Nationals-Braves - 7:10 PM
--Strasburg is 1-1, 2.29 in his last three starts.
--Santana is 1-2, 4.50 in his last four starts.
--Washington won six of its last eight games.
--Braves lost six of their last seven games.
--Over is 4-1-1 in last six Washington games.
•Marlins-Mets - 7:10 PM
--Cosart is 4-1, 1.52 in his last six starts.
--DeGrom is 2-0, 0.86 in his last three starts.
--Miami lost four of its last five games.
--Mets lost three of their last four games.
--Four of last five Marlin games stayed under.
•Reds-Cubs - 8:05 PM
--Simon is 1-2, 5.50 in his last three starts.
--Wood is 1-3, 6.84 in his last five starts.
--Reds won four of their last six games.
--Cubs lost eight of their last nine games.
--Under is 6-2-1 in last nine Cincinnati games.
•Dodgers-Rockies - 8:40 PM
--Hernandez is 1-3, 8.35 in his last four starts.
--Bergman is 1-1, 2.60 in his last three starts.
--Dodgers won seven of their last nine games.
--Colorado lost its last six games, scoring eight runs.
--Six of last seven Colorado games stayed under; over is 6-2-1 in Dodgers' last nine games.
•Giants-Diamondbacks - 9:40 PM
--Vogelsong is 0-2, 8.16 in his last three road starts.
--Miley is 0-2, 4.25 in his last three starts.
--Giants lost last two days by combined score of 21-2.
--Arizona won last two games, scoring 18 runs, after losing previous seven tilts.
--Over is 3-0-1 in last four Giant games.
•Phillies-Padres - 10:10 PM
--Williams is 0-1, 8.10 in his last couple starts.
--Cashner is 1-1, 2.81 in his last five starts.
--Phillies lost five of their last eight games.
--San Diego lost eight of its last ten games.
--Five of last six San Diego games went over total.
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American League
•Blue Jays-Orioles - 7:05 PM
--Stroman is 3-0, 1.59 in his last three starts.
--Chen is 2-0, 2.29 in his last three starts.
--Toronto won five of its last seven games.
--Orioles won seven of their last eight games.
--Four of last five Toronto games went over total.
•Yankees-Rays - 7:10 PM
--Capuano is 1-1, 6.99 in his last six starts.
--Colome allowed one run in five IP in his only '14 start, in late June.
--Yankees lost three of its last four games.
--Tampa Bay is 1-8 in game following its last eight wins.
--Over is 5-1-1 in last seven Tampa Bay games; last four Yankees games stayed under the total.
•Tigers-Twins - 8:10 PM
--Scherzer is 1-0, 2.84 in his last two starts.
--Swarzak allowed one run in five IP in his only '14 start, in late July.
--Tigers won six of their last seven games.
--Minnesota lost eight of its last ten games.
--Seven of last ten Detroit games went over total.
•White Sox-Royals - 8:10 PM
--Danks is 0-3, 7.02 in his last three starts.
--Shields is 2-0, 0.40 in his last three starts.
--White Sox won four of their last five games.
--Kansas City lost five of its last seven games.
--Seven of last ten Shields starts stayed under.
•Indians-Astros - 8:10 PM
--McAllister is 0-2, 6.87 in his last four starts (last start was July 31).
--McHugh is 5-0, 1.80 in his last six starts.
--Cleveland lost five of its last seven games.
--Astros won nine of their last thirteen games.
--Under is 5-1-1 in last seven Houston games; four of last five Cleveland games went over.
•Mariners-Angels - 10:05 PM
--Iwakuma is 2-1, 7.50 in his last four starts.
--Shoemaker is 6-0, 1.32 in his last seven starts.
--Seattle lost five of its last seven games.
--Angels won nine of their last ten games.
--Under is 7-0-1 in last eight Seattle games.
•Teams' Record When This Starting Pitcher Starts
-- Strasburg 16-15; Santana 16-12
-- Cosart 11-9/5-2; DeGrom 10-10
-- Simon 17-12; Wood 14-15
-- Hernandez 8-11/2-4; Bergman 3-4
-- Vogelsong 15-14; Miley 12-18
-- Williams 1-1/4-2; Cashner 8-8
-- Stroman 10-8; Chen 18-10
-- Capuano 5-4; Colome 1-0
-- Scherzer 21-9; Swarzak 1-0
-- Danks 11-18; Shields 19-12
-- McAllister 6-8; McHugh 11-12
-- Iwakuma 16-9; Shoemaker 15-4
•Pitchers Allowing Runs In First Inning
-- Strasburg 11-31; Santana 9-28
-- Cosart 9-27; DeGrom 2-20
-- Simon 10-29; Wood 8-29
-- Hernandez 11-25; Bergman 3-7
-- Vogelsong 6-29; Miley 6-30
-- Williams 3-8; Cashner 5-16
-- Stroman 3-18; Chen 9-28
-- Capuano 5-9; Colome 1-1
-- Scherzer 8-30; Swarzak 0-1
-- Danks 9-29; Shields 7-31
-- McAllister 3-14; McHugh 4-24
-- Iwakuma 5-25; Shoemaker 2-19
•Incredible Stat of the Day
Cincinnati Reds Alfredo Simon is 13-1 in his team starts against the money line (92.8%) versus an National League team with a team batting average of .250 or worse this season. The right-hander has also been outstanding on the year versus National League teams with an on base percentage of .315 or worse recording a 15-5 record, along with a 10-2 mark against division opponents.
Simon endured a six-week drought between victories but has won two of his last four starts. The 33-year-old turned in a quality start last time out, allowing two runs and five hits over seven innings in a win over St. Louis. Simon is 4-0 with a 1.98 ERA in 14 games (four starts) against the Cubs including a 1-0 mark and 1.42 ERA in seven games (two starts) at Wrigley Field.
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Diamond Trends - Monday
•SAN FRANCISCO is 8-20 (-17.1 Units) against the money line versus an National League starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.350 to 1.450 over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 3.1, OPPONENT 4.3.
•LA ANGELS are 13-2 UNDER (+10.9 Units) in home games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) this season.
The average score was LA ANGELS 2.9, OPPONENT 2.5.
•MINNESOTA is 6-20 (-17.4 Units) against the run line versus a starting pitcher whose throws more than 6.5 innings per start this season.
The average score was MINNESOTA 2.8, OPPONENT 5.4.
•MATT SHOEMAKER is 11-1 (+10.3 Units) against the money line versus an American League team with a team batting average of .260 or worse this season.
The average score was SHOEMAKER 6.0, OPPONENT 3.2.
•RYAN VOGELSONG is 10-1 OVER (+9.0 Units) in road games versus teams outscored by opponent by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was VOGELSONG 5.5, OPPONENT 5.8.
•ERVIN SANTANA is 7-0 (+7.8 Units) against the run line in home games versus an National League team with a batting average of .255 or worse in the second half of the season this season.
The average score was SANTANA 5.4, OPPONENT 2.7.
Situational Analysis of The Day
•Play Against - All underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (MIAMI) - below average hitting team (AVG <=.255) against a very good starting pitcher (ERA <=3.00) - National League, with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP <= 1.000 over his last 3 starts.
(55-12 over the last 5 seasons.) (82.1%, +36.8 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -151.7
The average score in these games was: Team 4.5, Opponent 2.8 (Average run differential = +1.7)
The situation's record this season is: (14-5, +6.8 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (42-11, +25.3 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (79-27, +37.2 units).
•Play On - All teams against a run line. (+1.5, -130) to (-1.5, +160) (WASHINGTON) - average offensive team (4.3 to 4.8 runs/game) against a decent starter (ERA=3.70 to 4.20) - National League, with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP <= 1.000 over his last 5 starts.
(47-19 since 1997.) (71.2%, +33.3 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (39-27)
The average run line posted in these games was: Team favored by 0.2, money line price: +111
The average score in these games was: Team 5.4, Opponent 3.9 (Average run differential = +1.5)
The number of games in which this system covered the run line by 1 or more runs was 27 (40.9% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0, +0 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (4-3, +0.2 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (11-7, +2.2 units).
•Play Under - All teams where the total is 7 to 8.5 (SAN FRANCISCO) - red hot National League hitting team - batting .300 or better over their last 20 games against opponent with an on base percentage of .300 or worse over their last 10 games.
(41-15 over the last 5 seasons.) (73.2%, +24.1 units. Rating = 2*)
The average total posted in these games was: 7.8, Money Line=-112.7
The average score in these games was: Team 3.7, Opponent 3.1 (Total runs scored = 6.8)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 1 or more runs was 36 (64.3% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (5-4, +0.4 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (18-6, +11.1 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (95-55, +34.4 units).
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