STATSYSTEMS SPORTS MLB REPORT
MONDAY, JUNE 9TH 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Monday, 6/9/14 MLB Information *****
(ALL RESULTS VS. ML) - Against The Money-Line - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2014 Major League Baseball season we will analyze all of your daily baseball action, featuring on hot and cold pitchers, hot and cold teams, over/unders and home plate umpire trends. We will also highlight some of our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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MLB Betting News and Notes - Week #11
•Angels-Athletics Pull The Big Bats Out: The Oakland Athletics and Los Angeles Angels are set to do battle Monday evening (10:05 PM EST) for the American League West lead. It's sure to be a closely fought series, but bettors can look to the totals for a safer bet. In the last five meetings this season, the Athletics and Angels have gone over in every one. Not one of those games have seen the teams score less than nine runs and have averaged 13 notches on the scoreboard per game.
•Reds-Dodgers Keep It Close, Totals Bettors Happy: The Cincinnati Reds and Los Angeles Dodgers have not been able to push past their totals in recent memory. In the last 15 clashes between the two clubs, the under has paid out 11 times (with one push). In these 15 games, that spans across the past three seasons, they teams average a combined 5.3 runs per game and has scored five or less runs nine times. The Dodgers have been one of the top under plays in the Major League Baseball away from home, registering an over/under record of 12-18-1 on the road.
•Porcello Hittable, But Unbeatable Against White Sox: The Detroit Tigers could not be sending a better pitcher to the mound Monday night. Rick Porcello has steered the Tigers to a 12-1 record in his last 13 starts against the Chicago White Sox. The White Sox have been able to make consistent contact, registering at least five hits in nine of Porcello's starts, but have rarely turned that into runs. Porcello has kept the White Sox to three runs or less in every one of those starts.
•Latos Could Rejoin Reds' Rotation This Week: The Cincinnati Reds could see their rotation get stronger this week with the return of Mat Latos. According to the Cincinnati Enquirer, if Latos pitches his Triple-a start Monday and feels good he could be back in the majors this week. Latos has been dealing with a strain in his right elbow and has been rejecting surgery. Latos has yet to appear with the team this season, but carried a 14-7 record last season with a 3.16 ERA.
Sunday's MLB Roundup
-- Minnesota Twins officially signed first baseman/designated hitter Kendrys Morales on Sunday to a one-year, prorated $12 million contract. Morales' portion of the deal is more than $7.4 million. Since Morales is not injured and is out of options, the club cannot send him to the minor leagues.
-- The New York Mets optioned catcher Travis D'Arnaud to Triple-A Las Vegas. D'Arnoud, 25, missed more than two weeks earlier this season for post-concussion symptoms. Mets third baseman David Wright was out of the starting lineup for the first time this season, snapping his streak of 62 straight starts this year. The Mets have an off day Monday, and manager Terry Collins said he wanted to give Wright back-to-back days off.
-- San Francisco Giants center fielder Angel Pagan was out of the starting lineup, one day after hurting his right leg while sliding into home plate to score the game-tying run in the ninth inning of a 5-4 win against the Mets. After Saturday night's game, Pagan had his knee and lower leg heavily wrapped.
-- New York Yankees first baseman Mark Teixeira, who sat out May 26-28 and June 1-2 with right wrist inflammation, grounded out as a ninth-inning pinch hitter. Manager Joe Girardi said he was resting Teixeira, who will start Monday. Yankees right-hander Shawn Kelley, who threw 19 pitches in a rehab appearance Saturday for Double-A Trenton, will pitch in a minor league game Monday. He is on the disabled list.
-- Miami Marlins manager Mike Redmond said he may shuffle his rotation this week to enable right-hander Nathan Eovaldi (4-2, 3.27 ERA) to be there for the birth of his child without missing a start. If Eovaldi's wife has not given birth by Wednesday, Eovaldi may be moved up from his scheduled Friday start.
-- The Baltimore Orioles officially activated right-hander Tommy Hunter (groin) from the 15-day disabled list. He had been on the DL since May 22. In a corresponding roster move, the Orioles optioned right-hander Evan Meek, who was the losing pitcher in Friday night's game, to Triple-A Norfolk.
-- Two of the Cincinnati Reds' rehabbing stars have joined the Triple-A Louisville Bats on the road at Pawtucket this week. First baseman Joey Votto, on the disabled list with a quadriceps strain in his left knee, began his rehab assignment on Sunday, going 1-for-3. Right-hander Mat Latos is expected to join the Bats on Monday.
-- The Pittsburgh Pirates placed right-hander Gerrit Cole on the 15-day disabled list with shoulder fatigue. Cole, considered one of the top young arms in the major leagues, is 6-3 with a 3.64 ERA this season.
-- Texas Rangers first baseman Mitch Moreland will be sidelined for about three months due to left ankle surgery. Moreland's ankle has been bothering him since the start of the season. He has had injections and other treatments but has not been able to eliminate the pain.
-- San Diego Padres right-hander Andrew Cashner "felt fine" the day after his first start since May 13 and is expected to start Thursday in Philadelphia unless the Padres elect to give him an extra day off.
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Betting Notes - Monday
•Hot Pitchers
-- Morton is 2-1, 3.38 in his last three starts.
-- Vogelsong is 3-0, 2.05 in his last four starts.
-- Dickey is 3-0, 4.91 in his last four home starts. Nolasco is 2-0, 3.46 in his last two outings.
-- House is 1-0, 2.25 in his last couple starts.
-- White Sox won last three Noesi starts (1-0, 2.33).
-- Vargas is 1-0, 1.77 in his last three starts.
-- Collmenter is 3-0, 3.20 in his last four starts.
•Cold Pitchers
-- Jackson is 0-2, 8.79 in his last three starts.
-- Cingrani is 0-4, 5.56 in his last four starts. Haren is 0-3, 6.38 in his last four.
-- Bergman is making MLB debut; he is 4-4, 3.84 in 12 AAA starts this year. Floyd is 0-2, 5.40 in his last five starts.
-- Strasburg is 0-3, 5.70 in his five road starts.
-- Price is 0-2, 5.65 in his last four starts. Ramirez is 0-4, 7.96 in his last six.
-- Norris has a 6.88 RA in his last three starts. Peavy is 0-2, 7.04 in his last five outings.
-- Martinez is 0-1, 8.18 in his last couple starts.
-- Porcello is 1-2, 6.50 in his last three starts.
-- Nuno is 0-2, 6.18 in his last five starts.
-- Chavez is 1-2, 5.71 in his last three starts. Richards is 1-2, 5.16 in last four.
•Totals
-- Five of Cubs' last seven road games went over.
-- Last five Dodger games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 5-2-1 in last eight games at Coors Field.
-- Under is 7-1-1 in last nine Washington road games.
-- Eight of last eleven Tampa Bay games stayed under.
-- Five of last six Toronto home games stayed under.
-- Eight of last ten Baltimore home games went over.
-- Five of last seven Cleveland road games stayed under.
-- Ten of last twelve White Sox home games stayed under.
-- Under is 5-2-1 in last eight Kansas City games.
-- Eight of last ten Angel games went over the total.
-- Five of last seven Arizona home games stayed under.
•Hot Teams
-- Cubs won five of their last six games. Pittsburgh lost three of its last four home games.
-- Dodgers won six of their last nine road games.
-- Nationals won seven of its last nine games. San Francisco won nine of their last ten home games.
-- Mariners won seven of their last nine games.
-- Indians won eight of their last nine games.
-- Royals won five of its last seven games.
-- Athletics won seven of its last nine games. Los Angeles won seven of their last eight home games.
-- Astros won seven of last eight away games. Arizona won five of its last six games overall.
•Cold Teams
-- Reds are 3-5 in its last eight home games.
-- Rockies lost nine of its last ten games. Atlanta lost four of their last five.
-- Rays lost 12 of its last 13 games.
-- Twins lost 11 of its last 16 games. Toronto is 3-4 in their last seven home games.
-- Boston lost five of its last six games. Baltimore lost three of their last four.
-- Rangers lost six of their last nine games.
-- Tigers lost seven of its last ten road games. Chicago lost six of their last nine games overall.
-- Yankees lost six of their last eight games.
Diamond Trends - Monday
•BOSTON is 10-26 (-20.3 Units) against the money line versus an American League team with an on base percentage .330 or worse this season.
The average score was BOSTON 3.9, OPPONENT 5.2.
•LA ANGELS are 24-6 OVER (+17.3 Units) versus teams outscoring opponent by 1 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was LA ANGELS 5.3, OPPONENT 5.7.
•HOUSTON is 41-17 (+24.9 Units) against the run line versus a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was HOUSTON 3.9, OPPONENT 4.1.
•DAN HAREN is 1-10 (-12.3 Units) against the money line versus National League teams scoring 3.8 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was HAREN 2.4, OPPONENT 5.8.
•RYAN VOGELSONG is 11-1 UNDER (+9.7 Units) as an underdog of +100 to +150 over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was VOGELSONG 3.2, OPPONENT 3.3.
•DAVID PRICE is 1-13 (-13 Units) against the run line versus poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PRICE 3.7, OPPONENT 4.9.
Situation Analysis of The Day
•Play Against - All underdogs with a money line of +175 to +250 (SEATTLE) - with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.600 to 1.700 on the season -American League, with a team on base percentage .310 or worse on the season (AL).
(58-17 over the last 5 seasons.) (77.3%, +36.6 units. Rating = 3*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -129.7
The average score in these games was: Team 5.5, Opponent 3.4 (Average run differential = +2.1)
The situation's record this season is: (3-1, +2 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (34-12, +17.2 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (119-69, +25.1 units).•Play On - All underdogs against a 1.5 run line. (Money Line =-160 to -115) (HOUSTON) - poor offensive team - scoring <=4.7 runs/game on the season (American League) against opponent poor team, outscored by opponents by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season.
(138-53 over the last 5 seasons.) (72.3%, +61.8 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (98-93 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average run line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 1.5, money line price: -145
The average score in these games was: Team 4.3, Opponent 4.4 (Average run differential = -0.1)
The number of games in which this system covered the run line by 1 or more runs was 98 (51.3% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (10-11, -5.5 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (69-32, +23.1 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (326-223, -0.2 units).
•Play Over - Home teams where the total is 8 to 8.5 (KANSAS CITY) - terrible offensive team (<=4.2 runs/game) against a decent starting pitcher (ERA=4.20 to 4.70) -American League, with an on base percentage of .310 or worse over their last 20 games.
(50-18 since 1997.) (73.5%, +30.5 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 8.3, Money Line=-108.3
The average score in these games was: Team 5.1, Opponent 5.6 (Total runs scored = 10.7)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 1 or more runs was 41 (61.2% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (2-2, -0.1 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (16-9, +6.3 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (32-12, +19 units).
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w-thumbs!^
