Service Plays Monday 4/28/14

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Game of the Day: Spurs at Mavericks

San Antonio Spurs at Dallas Mavericks (+4, 203)

The NBA playoffs have yielded unexpected results so far, with the Dallas Mavericks providing a stunning scenario in a best-of-seven matchup with top-seeded San Antonio in the West. The Mavericks look to build off a dramatic Game 3 win and take a commanding 3-1 series lead when they host the Spurs in Game 4 on Monday. After snapping the Spurs' 16-game home winning streak in Game 2, Dallas got a last-second 3-pointer by Vince Carter to steal a 109-108 win in Game 3 on Saturday.

Monta Ellis scored 12 of his 29 points in the fourth quarter for the Mavericks, who also won at home against San Antonio for the first time in over two years. Ellis was part of an eighth-seeded Golden State team that knocked out No. 1 Dallas in 2007, so he understands the mentality that is necessary at this point in time. "We're not getting ahead of ourselves," he said after Saturday's victory. "We're not going to get big-headed because we've won two games."

LINE HISTORY: The Mavericks opened as 4-point home dogs. The total opened at 203.

INJURY REPORT: N/A.

WHY BET THE SPURS: San Antonio has struggled to get consistent production from the supporting cast around the star trio of Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili - who have combined to average 56 points on 53.8 percent shooting in the series. Kawhi Leonard and Tiago Splitter shook off their struggles to combine for 31 points, 18 rebounds and six steals in Game 3, but fellow starter Danny Green continued to be a non-factor, making one of his five shot attempts in a rather insignificant 13 minutes. Green averaged 12.3 points on 57.1 percent shooting versus Dallas during the regular season, but has only three baskets in 59 minutes in the series.

WHY BET THE MAVERICKS: Dallas was outrebounded by San Antonio in all four regular-season meetings and again in Game 1 before winning the battle on the glass in Game 2 and holding its own in Game 3, when the Spurs had a 36-35 edge. Some of the credit for the turnaround goes to Samuel Dalembert, who grabbed 6.8 rebounds per game during the regular season but has averaged 8.3 in the series, including 10 to go along with four blocked shots on Saturday. Dalembert also went 5-for-5 from the line, including two big ones in the final minute, as Dallas bumped its free-throw percentage for the series to 83.3 percent, compared to 72.1 for San Antonio.

TRENDS:

* Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings in Dallas.
* Spurs are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in Dallas.
* Underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.
* Road team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.

COVERS CONSENSUS: Fifty-four percent of the wagers are on the Spurs -4.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Monday's MLB betting cheat sheet

Here's a comprehensive look at betting notes for Monday's MLB betting action:

Wherling Darvish

The Texas Rangers enter Monday's action as a -142 favorite against the visiting Oakland Athletics - thanks in no small part to Yu Darvish. The Rangers' scheduled starter has limited opposing hitters to a .217 average and has allowed just one home run in 28 ininngs.

Wilin is able

Arizona Diamondbacks left-hander Wade Miley will face an old nemesis in Monday's series opener against visiting Colorado (+115). Rockies catcher Wilin Rosario is 8-for-16 with three doubles and a homer in his career against Miley.

Wacha's walk problem

St. Louis Cardinals hurler Michael Wacha hopes to have more success finding the strike zone in his matchup with the Milwaukee Brewers (+136). The 22-year-old struck out 10 over just four innings last time out, but also issued five free passes - two more than his first four starts combined.

Pitching notes

* Chicago Cubs right-hander Jeff Samardzija is off to a blistering start, having limited foes to two earned runs or fewer in each of his first five starts.

* Milwaukee Brewers righty Yovani Gallardo has allowed just one home run over his first 31 2/3 innings in 2014 after surrendering 18 a season ago.

Hitting notes

* San Diego Padres shortstop Everth Cabrera is hitless in 16 lifetime at-bats against San Francisco Giants right-hander Madison Bumgarner.

* Since belting a pair of home runs against the Yankees, Tampa Bay Rays outfielder Wil Myers is 5-for-30 with zero RBIs and nine strikeouts.

Total streaks

Chicago White Sox (5-1 O/U): Buoyed by the amazing start to Jose Abreu's major-league career, the White Sox are scoring runs by the boatload - racking up 16 against Texas a week ago and plating nine in two of their last three games.

Injury Watch

* Milwaukee Brewers outfielder Ryan Braun (strained intercostal) is expected to miss the next 3-to-5 days.

* New York Yankees infielder Yangervis Solarte (sore right shoulder) is considered day-to-day.

* Los Angeles Dodgers shortstop Hanley Ramirez (bruised right thumb) is hoping to return to action Tuesday.

Weather watch

* A 78 percent chance of thunderstorms is in the forecast for the Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, with temperatures in the low-70s.

* St. Louis' Busch Stadium faces a 62 percent chance of thundershowers for the Cardinals' game against Milwaukee.

Hot and cold betting trends

* Brewers at Cardinals: Under is 10-1 in Milwaukee's previous 11 Monday games.

* Indians at Angels: Cleveland is 6-1 in right-hander Justin Masterson's last 11 starts against the American League West.

* Padres at Giants: Under is 11-1 in San Diego starter Tyson Ross' last 12 outings against teams with winning records.

Stat of the Day

Darvish's walks-per-9 rate dropped from 4.2 to 3.4 between his first and second major-league seasons. Through the first four starts of 2014, it's at 2.6.

** Odds, stats, weather forecast and probable pitchers as of 7:55 p.m. ET Saturday.

 

[cracy]

STATSYSTEMS SPORTS STAT/SHEETS, 4/28/14
NATIONAL BASKETBALL ASSOCIATION
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
_________________________________________


***** Monday, 4/28/14 NBA Information *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2013-14 National Basketball Association season we will analyze all of your daily basketball action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
_______________________________________________

Eastern Conference Playoffs - Round #1

#501 MIAMI @ #502 CHARLOTTE
(TV: 7:00 PM EST, TNT, Sun Sports Miami, SportSouth Charlotte - Line: Heat -6.5, Total: 187) - The Miami Heat continue to dominate Charlotte and attempt to complete a four-game sweep of the host Bobcats on Monday. The Heat have defeated Charlotte 19 consecutive times – the last 18 since LeBron James joined the franchise – and are in position to sweep after posting a 98-85 victory on Saturday. The Bobcats are 0-7 in their short postseason history and center Al Jefferson will once again play despite a painful foot injury.

Teams that go up 3-0 occasionally experience a Game #4 letdown and Miami coach Erik Spoelstra moved to prevent that after Saturday’s victory. “We don’t want this series to go longer than it needs to go and leave anything to chance,” Spoelstra said. Charlotte would like to record that elusive first playoff victory to keep that from hanging over the franchise moving forward. The Bobcats have been held below 90 points in two of the three games and don’t possess enough firepower to make up for a hobbling Jefferson.

•ABOUT THE HEAT (57-28 SU, 39-44-2 ATS): James has put together back-to-back 30-point outings and is averaging 29.7 points on 56.9 percent shooting in the series. He is also contributing 8.3 rebounds and five assists while operating at his typically high level. Post player Chris Andersen was solid in Game #3 with 12 points and seven boards, a timely contribution considering center Chris Bosh had only eight points in his second subpar outing of the series. Bosh was 8-of-11 shooting in Game #2 and 7-of-20 in the other two contests.

•ABOUT THE BOBCATS (43-42 SU, 48-34-3 ATS): Jefferson has been giving a yeoman effort considering the circumstances and is averaging 18.7 points and 9.3 rebounds in the series. Every trip running up the court is a painful experience for the big man and not having their best player at full strength has become a hardship to the offense as Jefferson can’t move away from double teams as rapidly as normal. “He’s a shell of himself but he’s still a handful,” Charlotte coach Steve Clifford told reporters. “They made it so difficult for us to get him the ball.”

•PREGAME NOTES: Often-injured Heat SG Dwyane Wade is playing an average of 34.3 minutes in the series while contributing 18.3 points and 4.3 assists.... Charlotte has committed an average of 14.7 turnovers in the series after averaging a league-low 11.6 in the regular season.... Miami F Michael Beasley (ankle) has yet to play in the series but did practice on Sunday.... The Bobcats are 10-2 versus the spread (83.3%) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season.... The Heat are 16-4 against the spread (80.0%) in road games versus excellent ball handling teams - committing less than 12 turnovers/game - 2nd half of the season since 1996.

StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.

-- In 1000 simulated games, CHARLOTTE covered the spread 696 times, while MIAMI covered the spread 304 times. *EDGE against the spread =CHARLOTTE. In 1000 simulated games, CHARLOTTE won the game straight up 528 times, while MIAMI won 444 times. In 1000 simulated games, 696 games went over the total, while 281 games went under the total. *EDGE against the total =OVER.

-- In 1000 simulated games, CHARLOTTE covered the first half line 654 times, while MIAMI covered the first half line 346 times. *EDGE against first half line =CHARLOTTE. In 1000 simulated games, 621 games went over first half total, while 345 games went under first half total. *EDGE against first half total =OVER.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--CHARLOTTE is 20-20 against the spread versus MIAMI since 1996.
--MIAMI is 32-10 straight up against CHARLOTTE since 1996.
--22 of 41 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1996.

--CHARLOTTE is 22-20 versus the first half line when playing against MIAMI since 1996.
--20 of 40 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.

--Heat are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Heat are 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Charlotte.

--Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.
--Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Charlotte.

--Favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Road team is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings.

•RECENT TRENDS
--Heat are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS win.
--Heat are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win.
--Heat are 0-4 ATS L4 games following a SU win of more than 10 points.

--Bobcats are 5-0 ATS L5 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points.
--Under is 5-0 in Bobcats last 5 Monday games.
--Under is 4-0 in Bobcats L4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

•SITUATION ANALYSIS: Play Over - All teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points (MIAMI) - a poor offensive rebounding team - averaging <=11/game on the season, off a road win against a division rival, well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 5 days.
(90-42 since 1996.) (68.2%, +43.8 units. Rating = 3*)

The average total posted in these games was: 185
The average score in these games was: Team 96.5, Opponent 95.5 (Total points scored = 192)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 69 (51.9% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (3-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (5-8).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (13-11).
_______________________________

#503 ATLANTA @ #504 INDIANA
(TV: 8:00 PM EST, NBATV, SportSouth Atlanta, FSN Indiana - Line: Pacers -7, Total: 186.5) - The Indiana Pacers took back homecourt advantage with a win in Game #4, now all they have to do is pick up rare back-to-back wins. The Pacers will try to grab a 3-2 lead in the best-of-seven Eastern Conference series when they host the Atlanta Hawks in Game #5 on Monday. The Hawks held a 2-1 lead in the series after taking Game #3 at home but could not come up with a big bucket or a key stop down the stretch of Game #4 on Saturday.

Indiana went nearly a month without back-to-back wins before closing the regular season with two straight victories to lock up the No. 1 seed in the East. The Pacers have only occasionally played like the heavy favorites they were supposed to be in the series, notably on back-to-back 3-pointers by Paul George and David West that gave them the lead down the stretch of Game #4. Indiana, which led the league in field-goal percentage defense in the regular season, got the stops it needed and held the Hawks to 35.7 percent shooting from the field in evening the series.

•ABOUT THE HAWKS (40-46 SU, 40-45-1 ATS): Atlanta spread the Pacers out in wins in Game #1 and Game #3, firing away from 3-point range while Jeff Teague exploited the openings in the paint set up by the “spread 5” offense. The Hawks hit 11 3-pointers in Game #4 but went 19-of-53 from inside the arc. Paul Millsap scored 29 points to keep his team in the game and is confident about Atlanta’s chances to win on the road in Game #5. “We let one slip away here,” Millsap told reporters after Game #4. “We showed that we can go and compete in the games (on the road). That’s what our mindset is now. We have to let this one go and get ready for Monday.”

•ABOUT THE PACERS (58-28 SU, 40-45-1 ATS): West hit just the second playoff 3-pointer of his career with 1:31 left in Game #4 and came up big on the defensive end while chasing Atlanta’s shooters around the perimeter. “(He has) the best will to win I’ve ever been around as a coach,” Pacers coach Frank Vogel told reporters of West. “He has that ‘whatever it’s called’ inside to find a way to win. Whether it’s making a three or a big bucket in the post or making a play with his hands defensively, he finds a way to win a game.” Indiana is also dependent upon George, who is 19-of-34 from the field in the two wins and 9-of-29 in the two losses in the series.

•PREGAME NOTES: Atlanta C Pero Antic is averaging four points on 6-of-27 shooting in the series.... Pacers C Roy Hibbert recorded his first two blocked shots of the series in Game #4.... Indiana G Lance Stephenson is averaging just six points in his team’s two wins and 20 in the two losses.... The Hawks are 15-28 versus the spread (34.8) versus good free throw shooting teams - making more than 76% of their attempts - 2nd half of the season over the last two seasons.... The Pacers are 10-24 against the spread (29.4%) versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting less than 24 free throws/game - 2nd half of the season this season.

StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.

-- In 1000 simulated games, ATLANTA covered the spread 633 times, while INDIANA covered the spread 349 times. *EDGE against the spread =ATLANTA. In 1000 simulated games, INDIANA won the game straight up 528 times, while ATLANTA won 448 times. In 1000 simulated games, 530 games went over the total, while 470 games went under the total. *No EDGE.

-- In 1000 simulated games, ATLANTA covered the first half line 595 times, while INDIANA covered the first half line 405 times. *EDGE against first half line =ATLANTA. In 1000 simulated games, 499 games went under first half total, while 469 games went over first half total. *No EDGE.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--ATLANTA is 42-34 against the spread versus INDIANA since 1996.
--INDIANA is 40-38 straight up against ATLANTA since 1996.
--39 of 74 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1996.

--ATLANTA is 50-26 versus the first half line when playing against INDIANA since 1996.
--38 of 75 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.

--Favorite is 27-11-1 ATS in the last 39 meetings.
--Home team is 25-12-1 ATS in the last 38 meetings.
--Over is 15-5-1 in the last 21 meetings in Indiana.

•RECENT TRENDS
--Hawks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games.
--Hawks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. loss.
--Under is 4-0 in Hawks last 4 Monday games.

--Pacers are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games following a ATS win.
--Pacers are 1-7 ATS L8 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
--Pacers are 1-7 ATS L8 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.

•SITUATION ANALYSIS: Play On - Underdogs of 2 to 3.5 points versus the first half line (ATLANTA) - poor defensive team (45.5-47.5%) against a good defensive team (41.5-43.5%), revenging a close loss versus opponent of 3 points or less, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season.
(139-81 since 1996.) (63.2%, +49.9 units. Rating = 2*)

The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 3.3
The average first half score in these games was: Team 47.8, Opponent 48.6 (Average first half point differential = -0.8)

The situation's record this season is: (3-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (20-12).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (29-17).
_______________________________

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Western Conference Playoffs - Round #1

#505 SAN ANTONIO @ #506 DALLAS
(TV: 9:30 PM EST, TNT, FSN Southwest San Antonio, KTXA Dallas - Line: Spurs -4, Total: 203) - The NBA playoffs have yielded unexpected results so far, with the Dallas Mavericks providing a stunning scenario in a best-of-seven matchup with top-seeded San Antonio in the West. The Mavericks look to build off a dramatic Game #3 win and take a commanding 3-1 series lead when they host the Spurs in Game #4 on Monday. After snapping the Spurs' 16-game home winning streak in Game #2, Dallas got a last-second 3-pointer by Vince Carter to steal a 109-108 win in Game #3 on Saturday.

Monta Ellis scored 12 of his 29 points in the fourth quarter for the Mavericks, who also won at home against San Antonio for the first time in over two years. Ellis was part of an eighth-seeded Golden State team that knocked out No. 1 Dallas in 2007, so he understands the mentality that is necessary at this point in time. "We're not getting ahead of ourselves," he said after Saturday's victory. "We're not going to get big-headed because we've won two games."

•ABOUT THE SPURS (63-22 SU, 45-40-0 ATS): San Antonio has struggled to get consistent production from the supporting cast around the star trio of Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili - who have combined to average 56 points on 53.8 percent shooting in the series. Kawhi Leonard and Tiago Splitter shook off their struggles to combine for 31 points, 18 rebounds and six steals in Game #3, but fellow starter Danny Green continued to be a non-factor, making one of his five shot attempts in a rather insignificant 13 minutes. Green averaged 12.3 points on 57.1 percent shooting versus Dallas during the regular season, but has only three baskets in 59 minutes in the series.

•ABOUT THE MAVERICKS (51-34 SU, 47-38-0 ATS): Dallas was outrebounded by San Antonio in all four regular-season meetings and again in Game #1 before winning the battle on the glass in Game #2 and holding its own in Game #3, when the Spurs had a 36-35 edge. Some of the credit for the turnaround goes to Samuel Dalembert, who grabbed 6.8 rebounds per game during the regular season but has averaged 8.3 in the series, including 10 to go along with four blocked shots on Saturday. Dalembert also went 5-for-5 from the line, including two big ones in the final minute, as Dallas bumped its free-throw percentage for the series to 83.3 percent, compared to 72.1 for San Antonio.

•PREGAME NOTES: Leonard has made 3-of-4 3-pointers in the last two games after going 0-for-3 in Game #1.... Mavericks PG Jose Calderon is shooting 51.7 percent and owns a team-high 16 assists in the series.... Parker is averaging 17.3 points while shooting 50 percent or better in each of the three games.... The Mavericks are 37-18 versus the spread (67.2%) versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting less than 24 free throws/game - 2nd half of the season over the last two seasons.... The Spurs are 38-19 against the spread (66.6%) versus good ball handling teams - committing less than 14 turnovers/game - 2nd half of the season over the last three seasons.

StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.

-- In 1000 simulated games, DALLAS covered the spread 631 times, while SAN ANTONIO covered the spread 346 times. *EDGE against the spread =DALLAS. In 1000 simulated games, DALLAS won the game straight up 519 times, while SAN ANTONIO won 452 times. In 1000 simulated games, 610 games went over the total, while 370 games went under the total. *EDGE against the total =OVER.

-- In 1000 simulated games, DALLAS covered the first half line 579 times, while SAN ANTONIO covered the first half line 388 times. *EDGE against first half line =DALLAS. In 1000 simulated games, 560 games went over first half total, while 440 games went under first half total. *No EDGE.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--SAN ANTONIO is 52-47 against the spread versus DALLAS since 1996.
--SAN ANTONIO is 63-41 straight up against DALLAS since 1996.
--53 of 102 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1996.

--SAN ANTONIO is 52-49 versus the first half line when playing against DALLAS since 1996.
--55 of 102 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.

--Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
--Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Dallas.

--Spurs are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Spurs are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Dallas.

--Underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Road team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.

•RECENT TRENDS
--Spurs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
--Spurs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
--Spurs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.

--Mavericks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
--Mavericks are 4-0 ATS L4 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
--Under is 4-0 in Mavericks L4 when their opponent scored 100 points or more LG.

•SITUATION ANALYSIS: Play Against - Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (SAN ANTONIO) - poor pressure defense (<=14.5 TO's) against a good ball handling team (<=14.5 TO's) after 42+ games, revenging 2 straight losses where opponent scored 100 or more points, with a winning record on the season.
(73-41 over the last 5 seasons.) (64.0%, +27.9 units. Rating = 2*)

The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (54-64 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 6
The average score in these games was: Team 100.3, Opponent 102.7 (Average point differential = -2.4)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 52 (44.1% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (4-6).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (32-25).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (220-169).
_______________________________

 

[tgunn11]

Baseball Crusher
Colorado Rockies +112 over Arizona
(System Record: 16-0, won last 3 games)
Overall Record: 16-12

 

[cracy]

STATSYSTEMS SPORTS MLB REPORT
MONDAY, APRIL 28th 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
_______________________________________


***** Monday, 4/28/14 MLB Information *****
(ALL RESULTS VS. ML) - Against The Money-Line - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2014 Major League Baseball season we will analyze all of your daily baseball action, featuring on hot and cold pitchers, hot and cold teams, over/unders and home plate umpire trends. We will also highlight some of our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
______________________________________

MLB Betting News and Notes - Week #5
For a handful of major-league teams, game location has played a significant role in their early-season fortunes. Some clubs are off to incredible starts at home but have struggled to maintain that momentum on the road. Others have succeeded away from their own stadium but have disappointed the locals. Here are five teams with the largest home/road splits (units in parentheses):

•Milwaukee Brewers (+32 at home, +978 on road)
Bet you didn't see this coming. The Brewers have been the major leagues' road warriors, becoming the first team to win nine of its first 10 games away from home since the 1994 Atlanta Braves. The offensive numbers - Milwaukee is batting .306 with a league-best 60 runs and 15 homers in 10 road games - are too good to sustain, and Milwaukee's next seven road games are against division power St. Louis and formidable Cincinnati.

•Miami Marlins (+481 at home, -631 on road)
The Marlins are doing exactly what's expected of most major league teams, triumphing in their own stadium while scuffling on the road. Miami's splits are more pronounced than the others, with a 9-4 record at Marlins Park and an 0-6 mark everywhere else. Apparently Miami's pitching staff enjoys the comforts of home, posting a 2.54 ERA in 117 innings in Miami, good for fifth-best in the league, but a 6.16 ERA outside Florida which ranks second-worst.

•Los Angeles Dodgers (-142 at home, +500 on road)
Fans supporting the team with the highest payroll in the majors probably wouldn't mind seeing more victories in their home park. Los Angeles has scuffled to a 4-4 home record but has thrived away from Dodger Stadium, posting an 8-3 mark with a 2.35 ERA that ranks second in the majors. The Dodgers have a great chance to pad their home record this week, welcoming the Philadelphia Phillies for four games before facing Colorado in a three-game set.

•New York Mets (-290 at home, +479 at home)
New York has brought great woe to Citi Field so far in 2014, winning just three of its first nine games there while posting a 6-3 mark on the road. The home struggles can be explained, at least in part, by an opening schedule that includes series against Washington, Philadelphia and Atlanta. Add in the fact that the Mets caught the host Arizona Diamondbacks in the throes of a terrible slump, and the early-season wins disparity makes even more sense.

•Detroit Tigers (+304 at home, -173 on road)
The defending Central Division champions racked up 51 home wins last season and are well on their way to repeating the feat, winning seven of their first 10 games at Comerica Park. That hot home start has masked a sub-par road showing, with the Tigers going 2-3 - a stretch that includes two one-sided losses to lowly San Diego. Detroit has eight straight games against divisional opponents beginning Friday. It went 47-29 against the American League Central last year.

Betting Notes - Monday
•Hot Pitchers
-- Samardzija has a 2.04 RA in five starts, but no wins. Simon is 3-1, 1.63 in his four starts this month.
-- Gallardo is 2-0, 1.42 in five starts this season.
-- Morales is 2-0, 1.38 in his last couple starts.
-- Ross is 2-1, 2.57 in his last three starts.

-- Gray is 3-1, 3.46 in his last four starts. Texas is 4-0 when Darvish starts (1-0, 1.61).
-- Angels are 4-0 when Skaggs starts (2-0, 3.54).

•Cold Pitchers
-- Wacha is 0-2, 4.09 in his last two starts.
-- Miley is 0-1, 6.19 in his last three starts.
-- Bumgarner is 2-2, 4.76 in five starts this season.

-- Odorizzi is 0-2, 9.22 in his last three starts. Rienzo allowed four runs in 6.2 IP in his first '14 start.
-- Masterson is 0-0, 7.29 in his last four starts.

•Totals
-- Four of last five Cub road games stayed under.
-- Six of last seven Milwaukee road games went over.
-- Over is 5-2-1 in last eight Arizona home games.
-- Eight of last nine San Diego road games stayed under.

-- Five of last six White Sox games went over the total.
-- Five of last six Oakland road games went over total.
-- Seven of eight Angel home games went over the total.

•Hot Teams
-- Brewers won seven of last nine games. St Louis won four of its last five home games.
-- Rockies won eight of their last twelve games.
-- Giants won six of their last seven home games.

-- Rangers won seven of its last nine home games.

•Cold Teams
-- Reds lost its last three games, scoring five runs. Chicago lost six of their last seven road games.
-- Diamondbacks lost ten of its last eleven home games.
-- Padres are 3-8 in game following a win.

-- Rays lost five of its last six away games. Chicago is 4-8 in game following a win.
-- Athletics lost five of its last seven games.
-- Angels lost three of last four games. Cleveland lost its last four road games.

Diamond Trends - Monday
•TEXAS is 10-0 (+12.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 62%) over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was TEXAS 4.3, OPPONENT 1.8.

•MILWAUKEE is 9-0 UNDER (+8.2 Units) versus National League teams allowing 3.8 or less runs/game on the season this season.
The average score was MILWAUKEE 3.4, OPPONENT 2.3.

•ARIZONA is 1-10 against the run line (-13.5 Units) versus an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game this season.
The average score was ARIZONA 2.7, OPPONENT 6.5.

•JEFF SAMARDZIJA is 6-17 (-11.6 Units) against the money line versus National League teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was SAMARDZIJA 3.3, OPPONENT 5.1.

•MADISON BUMGARNER is 18-5 UNDER (+12.2 Units) versus an National League team with an on base percentage .325 or worse over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was BUMGARNER 3.0, OPPONENT 2.6.

Situation Analysis of The Day
•Play Against - Home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (LA ANGELS) - averaging 3.5 or more extra base hits per game on the season against opponent poor fielding team - averaging 0.75+ errors/game on the season, with a bad bullpen that blows 38% or more of their save opportunities.
(40-13 over the last 5 seasons.) (75.5%, +27.3 units. Rating = 4*)

The average money line posted in these games was: Team underdog with a money line of: +100.6
The average score in these games was: Team 5.5, Opponent 3.2 (Average run differential = +2.3)

The situation's record this season is: (7-2, +5 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (18-9, +9.1 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (145-132, +8.4 units).
___________________________________________

 

[tgunn11]

Hockey Crusher
Columbus Blue Jackets +123 over Pittsburgh Penguins
(Playoff Record: 7-2, won last 5 games)
(Regular Season Record: 91-4)
Overall Record: 98-77-2

 

[tgunn11]

Basketball Crusher
Dallas Mavericks +4 over San Antonio Spurs
(Playoff Record: 5-3, lost last game)
(Regular Season Record: 78-8)
Overall Record: 83-89-5

 

[tgunn11]

Soccer Crusher
Pribram + SC Znojmo OVER 2
This match is happening in Czech Repub
(System Record: 562-20, won last game)
Overall Record: 562-477-81

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Baseball Crusher
Colorado Rockies +112 over Arizona
(System Record: 16-0, won last 3 games)
Overall Record: 16-12

Here are the rest of his baseball, hockey and basketball plays for today...


Baseball
Chicago White Sox +114 over Tampa Bay Rays
Cleveland Indians +113 over Los Angeles Angels
San Diego Padres +143 over SF


Hockey
Minnesota Wild -128 over Colorado
Los Angeles Kings -114 over San Jose
Minnesota Wild + Colorado Avalanche UNDER 5


Basketball
Atlanta Hawks +7 over Indiana
Charlotte Bobcats +7.5 over Miami
San Antonio Spurs + Dallas Mavericks UNDER 203

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Today's MLB Picks

Oakland at Texas

The Rangers open a big three-game set with the A's tonight and come into the contest with a 7-0 record in Yu Darvish's last 7 starts. Texas is the pick (-150) according to Dunkel, which has the Rangers favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Texas (-150). Here are all of today's picks.

MONDAY, APRIL 28 Time Posted: 6:00 a.m. EST

Game 901-902: Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Samardzija) 15.227; Cincinnati (Simon) 16.119 Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1; 8 Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-160); 7 Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-160); Over

Game 903-904: Milwaukee at St. Louis (8:15 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Gallardo) 16.267; St. Louis (Wacha) 15.373 Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1; 7 1/2 Vegas Line: St. Louis (-165); 7 Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+145); Over

Game 905-906: Colorado at Arizona (9:40 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Morales) 15.902; Arizona (Miley) 14.690 Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1; 8 Vegas Line: Arizona (-125); 9 Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+105); Under

Game 907-908: San Diego at San Francisco (10:15 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Ross) 14.234; San Francisco (Bumgarner) 15.775 Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1 1/2; 6 Vegas Line: San Francisco (-155); 6 1/2 Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-155); Under

Game 909-910: Tampa Bay at Chicago White Sox (8:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Odorizzi) 14.516; White Sox (Rienzo) 15.434 Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1; 10 Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-125); 9 Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (+105); Over

Game 911-912: Oakland at Texas (8:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Gray) 14.005; Texas (Darvish) 15.667 Dunkel Line: Texas by 1 1/2; 6 Vegas Line: Texas (-150); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Texas (-150); Under

Game 913-914: Cleveland at LA Angels (10:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Masterson) 15.583; LA Angels (Skaggs) 14.797 Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1; 9 Vegas Line: LA Angels (-125); 8 Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+105); Over

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Today's NHL Picks

San Jose at Los Angeles

The Sharks head back to LA tonight following a 3-0 loss in Game 5 and face a Kings team that is 0-5 in its last 5 games after allowing 2 goals or less in the previous game. San Jose is the pick (+100) according to Dunkel, which has the Sharks favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: San Jose (+100). Here are all of today's playoff picks.

MONDAY, APRIL 28 Time Posted: 6:30 a.m. EST

Game 67-68: Pittsburgh at Columbus (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 12.433; Columbus 10.797 Dunkel Line & Total: Pittsburgh by 1 1/2; 4 1/2 Vegas Line & Total: Pittsburgh (-145); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-145); Under

Game 71-72: Colorado at Minnesota (9:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Colorado 11.811; Minnesota 10.951 Dunkel Line & Total: Colorado by 1; 6 Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota (-135); 5 Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+115); Over

Game 73-74: San Jose at Los Angeles (10:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: San Jose 12.102; Los Angeles 11.373 Dunkel Line & Total: San Jose by 1; 6 Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles (-120); 5 Dunkel Pick: San Jose (+100); Over

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Today's NBA Picks

San Antonio at Dallas

The Spurs look to avoid going down 3-1 in the series and come into tonight's contest with an 8-3 ATS record in their last 11 games when playing on 1 days rest. San Antonio is the pick (-4) according to Dunkel, which has the Spurs favored by 9 1/2. Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-4). Here are all of today's playoff picks.

MONDAY, APRIL 28 Time Posted: 7:00 a.m. EST

Game 501-502: Miami at Charlotte (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Miami 124.326; Charlotte 118.912 Dunkel Line & Total: Miami by 5 1/2; 191 Vegas Line & Total: Miami by 7 1/2; 187 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Charlotte (+7 1/2); Over

Game 503-504: Atlanta at Indiana (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 112.817; Indiana 128.909 Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana by 16; 180 Vegas Line & Total: Indiana by 6 1/2; 186 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Indiana (-6 1/2); Under

Game 505-506: San Antonio at Dallas (9:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 131.197; Dallas 121.657 Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 9 1/2; 198 Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 4; 203 1/2 Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-4); Under

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Cappers Access

Mavericks +4
Reds(RL) -1.5(+160}

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Gamblers Data

Bonus Plays Monday

Kings -115

Reds/Cubs under 7.5

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Bonus Play MON: SA Spurs -4

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mighty Quinn

Mighty missed with the Clippers (-2 1/2) on Sunday and likes the Heat on Monday.

The deficit is 305 sirignanos.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NBA

Monday, April 28

Miami has won 18 games in row over Bobcat team that is 0-7 all-time in playoff games; Heat covered 10 of last 13 series games- they made 29 of 64 from arc first three games. Miami subs are killing Charlotte's; in first three games, Miami's subs combined to be +137; Charlotte's bench was -78. Heat was -3 with Dwyane Wade on floor in first two games, +31 when he was off floor. Under is 26-15-1 in Charlotte home games.

Dallas subs were -33 in Game 3, but Carter hit 3-ball from left corner to win game, Mavs' second straight series win after they had lost ten in a row vs Spurs. Dallas is just 5-5 in last ten home games. Spurs lost four of last five road games but are 25-17 vs spread overall on foreign soil. Spurs lost last two games, despite shooting 50%+ from floor both times. Over is 25-17 in Dallas home games this year.

Pacers are now 8-11 in last 19 games, 8-26-1 against spread in last 35, as they head back home for pivotal Game 5. Indiana is 4-4 vs Atlanta this season, 2-2 here. Hawks won eight of last twelve games. George made 10-18 from the floor in Game 4- he is Pacers' barometer. Hawks' bench was just 15-50 from floor in last two games; Indiana blocked 11 shots in Game 4- they had give guys with two blocks each.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NHL

Monday, April 28

Penguins lead Columbus 3-2, with Blue Jackets' two wins both in OT; team that led after first period lost all five games. Pittsburgh is just 6-6 in last 12 games, but are 9-2 in last 11 series games- six of their last nine games overall went to OT, with six of last eight going over total. Columbus is 4-12 on power play in its two wins, 2-10 in losses. Blue Jackets are 25-18 in its home games this year-- all four series games went over total. Penguins are 27-16 on the road.

Home side won all five Minnesota-Colorado games; Wild had 3-2 lead in last 2:00 of Game 5, but Colorado tied game, won in OT to take 3-2 series lead. Minnesota is 29-14 at home this year; six of their last eight games went over total. Wild is 2-15 on power play in series. Home teams are 18-4 in Western Conference, with two losses in OT. Colorado is 1-18 when it has man advantage. Avalanche scored 13 goals in three series home games, only one in losing their two games here.

Kings won last two games 6-3/3-0, are back home trying to force Game 7 in Shark Tank; LA had scored 19 goals in previous eight games before winning Games 4-5. Kings are 26-17 this year at Staples Center- five of their last six games went over total. San Jose is 24-19 on road this season, over is 23-18-2 in their away games. Sharks are 4-22 on power play in series, 2-8 at Staples. Kings are 4-13, 3-9 at home. League-wide, over is 24-10-7 in playoffs so far.