STATSYSTEMS SPORTS MNF REPORT
MONDAY DECEMBER, 8th 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** National Football League Information - Week #14 *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every week during the 2014-15 National Football League season we will analyze all of your daily football action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups. Content contained in this report remains exclusive private property of Stat/Systems Sports. Database information may not be reused or disseminated in any form without express written consent of the publisher.
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Monday's Week #14 Matchup
Systems Analyst Todd Smith
#179 ATLANTA @ #180 GREEN BAY
TV: 8:30 PM EST, ESPN
Line: Packers -12.5, Total: 55.5
The Atlanta Falcons would be out of the playoff picture in any other division, but residing in the NFC South has provided them with a clear path to the postseason. That doesn't equate to an easy road for the Falcons, who face a daunting obstacle in Week #14 on Monday Night Football, when they visit Aaron Rodgers and the red-hot Green Bay Packers. The win kept Atlanta tied with New Orleans atop the division, but the Falcons have a tougher schedule than the Saints in the final four weeks. Following the trip to Green Bay, they'll host Pittsburgh before visiting New Orleans on December 21st. Green Bay leads the NFC North and is unbeaten (6-0) at home.
Last week's 29-18 win over Arizona - the Falcons' first against a team with a winning record - actually was a boost for the Packers, who are among three 9-3 teams fighting for the top overall seed in the conference. Green Bay prevailed in a high-profile matchup during Week #13, snapping New England's seven-game winning streak for its fourth victory in a row and eighth in nine games. "We have some big goals, and we know what we have in front of us, we have a four-game stretch here," Packers top wideout Jordy Nelson said. "We can’t let up at all and we need to make sure we take care of business."
•ABOUT THE FALCONS (5-7 SU, 5-7-0 ATS): An injury-ravaged offensive line has contributed to the offensive inconsistency for Atlanta, but Matt Ryan is coming off his highest output since Week #1 with a 361-yard, two-TD performance in last Sunday's victory over Arizona. Julio Jones had a monster performance with 10 catches for 189 yards and has scored a TD in consecutive games, but fellow wideout Roddy White missed last weekend's game due to an ankle injury and did not practice Friday, although coach Mike Smith said he expected the veteran to play. Running back Steven Jackson has failed to crack 60 yards in 10 of 12 games but went over 100 yards for the first time versus the Cardinals. The Falcons rank dead last with 403.2 yards allowed, but they have permitted an average of 19 points during the current 3-1 streak.
•ABOUT THE PACKERS (9-3 SU, 7-4-0 ATS): Green Bay has been a juggernaut on its home field, averaging nearly 44 points prior to being held to 26 by the Patriots despite rolling up 478 total yards. Rodgers is coming off his sixth 300-yard game and has 32 touchdowns versus only three interceptions while posting numbers at Lambeau Field that are off the charts - 20 TDs and zero picks this season to extend his NFL records of 32 scoring passes and 366 attempts without being intercepted at home. Nelson and Randall Cobb are the first tandem in franchise history with at least 10 touchdown passes in a season, while running back Eddie Lacy has rushed for 223 yards on 46 carries the past two weeks. A defense that has held eight of its last 10 opponents to 21 points or fewer could be without cornerback Sam Shields (concussion).
•PREGAME NOTES: Green Bay leads its all-time series with Atlanta by a 14-12 margin, including a 22-21 win at Lambeau last season while Rodgers was out with a broken collarbone.... Green Bay hasn't won five in a row since 2012.... Both the Saints and Atlanta are attempting to avoid joining the 2010 Seattle Seahawks as being the only NFL teams to win a division with a sub-.500 record.... The Falcons are 0-3 against the NFC North this season.... The Packers have outscored the opposition 151-23 in the first half of the past five home games.... Shields' status is unknown because of a concussion suffered last weekend. Linebacker Jamari Lattimore (ankle) was also hurt versus New England.
•RESEARCH NOTES: According to our data base here at StatSystemsSports.net neither team particularly enjoys Monday Night Football: Green Bay enters 5-12 straight-up and 7-10 versus the spread of late; Atlanta 6-20 straight-up and 7-19 against the spread its last 26. It also informs us that the Falcons enjoy playing on Lambeau Field where they are 8-1 ATS their last nine visits to Green Bay, including 5-0 ATS the last five. Although, Atlanta has recorded a 2-14 ATS record when playing with a losing record on Monday Night, while Green Bay owns a spotless 10-0 SU and ATS record at home after an AFC confrontation.
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•KEY STATS
--ATLANTA is 20-39 ATS (-22.9 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 24 or more points/game in the second half of the season since 1992.
The average score was ATLANTA 19.2, OPPONENT 27.4.
--ATLANTA is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) after allowing 6 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was ATLANTA 28.1, OPPONENT 21.0.
--ATLANTA is 18-40 ATS (-26.0 Units) after gaining 6.5 or more yards/play in their previous game since 1992.
The average score was ATLANTA 18.1, OPPONENT 23.4.
--ATLANTA is 9-0 UNDER (+9.0 Units) versus good passing teams with a completion percentage of 61% or better over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was ATLANTA 15.0, OPPONENT 26.1.
--ATLANTA is 6-23 against the 1rst half line (-19.3 Units) in road games versus good passing teams averaging 7 or more passing yards/att. in the second half of the season since 1992.
The average score was ATLANTA 9.5, OPPONENT 16.5.
--ATLANTA is 0-9 against the 1rst half line (-9.9 Units) in road games versus very good offensive teams - scoring 27 or more points/game in the second half of the season since 1992.
The average score was ATLANTA 9.8, OPPONENT 19.7.
--ATLANTA is 14-34 against the 1rst half line (-23.4 Units) in road games after gaining 6 or more yards/play in their previous game since 1992.
The average score was ATLANTA 8.9, OPPONENT 14.2.
--GREEN BAY is 12-26 ATS (-16.6 Units) versus poor passing defenses - allowing 7 or more passing yards/att. in the second half of the season since 1992.
The average score was GREEN BAY 23.8, OPPONENT 21.3.
--GREEN BAY is 36-15 OVER (+19.5 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing >=350 yards/game in the second half of the season since 1992.
The average score was GREEN BAY 30.0, OPPONENT 22.3.
--GREEN BAY is 6-0 against the 1rst half line (+6.0 Units) versus poor passing defenses - allowing a completion percentage of 61% or worse this season.
The average score was GREEN BAY 24.8, OPPONENT 7.7.
--GREEN BAY is 6-0 against the 1rst half line (+6.0 Units) versus poor passing defenses - allowing 235 or more passing yards/game this season.
The average score was GREEN BAY 27.8, OPPONENT 6.5.
--GREEN BAY is 6-0 against the 1rst half line (+6.0 Units) versus good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game this season.
The average score was GREEN BAY 26.7, OPPONENT 9.3.
--GREEN BAY is 7-0 against the 1rst half line (+7.0 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing >=350 yards/game this season.
The average score was GREEN BAY 26.9, OPPONENT 8.0.
--GREEN BAY is 6-0 against the 1rst half line (+6.0 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing >=5.65 yards/play this season.
The average score was GREEN BAY 24.8, OPPONENT 7.7.
--GREEN BAY is 7-0 OVER (+7.0 Units) the 1rst half total versus poor defensive teams - allowing >=350 yards/game this season.
The average score was GREEN BAY 26.9, OPPONENT 8.0.
•COACHING TRENDS
--MIKE SMITH is 16-4 ATS (+11.5 Units) after allowing 6 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games as the coach of ATLANTA.
The average score was ATLANTA 26.8, OPPONENT 19.6.
--MIKE SMITH is 33-15 UNDER (+16.4 Units) versus poor passing defenses - allowing a completion percentage of 61% or worse as the coach of ATLANTA.
The average score was ATLANTA 23.6, OPPONENT 21.2.
--MIKE SMITH is 1-13 against the 1rst half line (-13.2 Units) in road games versus excellent offensive teams - averaging >=6 yards/play as the coach of ATLANTA.
The average score was ATLANTA 8.7, OPPONENT 15.7.
--MIKE MCCARTHY is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points as the coach of GREEN BAY.
The average score was GREEN BAY 33.8, OPPONENT 15.3.
--MIKE MCCARTHY is 27-6 ATS (+20.4 Units) off a non-conference game as the coach of GREEN BAY.
The average score was GREEN BAY 29.5, OPPONENT 19.0.
--MIKE MCCARTHY is 22-6 OVER (+15.3 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing >=350 yards/game in the second half of the season as the coach of GREEN BAY.
The average score was GREEN BAY 31.5, OPPONENT 24.2.
--MIKE MCCARTHY is 12-2 against the 1rst half line (+9.8 Units) as a home favorite of 6 to 8 points versus the 1rst half line as the coach of GREEN BAY.
The average score was GREEN BAY 19.1, OPPONENT 4.5.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--ATLANTA is 8-4 against the spread versus GREEN BAY since 1992.
--GREEN BAY is 7-5 straight up against ATLANTA since 1992.
--6 of 12 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1992.
--ATLANTA is 8-4 versus the first half line when playing against GREEN BAY since 1992.
--9 of 12 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1992.
--Underdog is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 meetings.
--Road team is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings.
--Falcons are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Green Bay.
•RECENT TRENDS
--ATL is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in Week #14.
--ATL is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in December.
--Under is 5-1 in ATL last 6 versus the NFC.
--GB is 33-16-2 ATS in their last 51 home games.
--GB is 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games in December.
--Under is 5-1 in GB last 6 games in Week #14.
StatSystemsSports.nethas searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Yards/Play and turnovers) Here are the results against the spread, against the total, and straight up:
--In past games, the underdog covered the spread 6 times, while the favorite covered the spread 4 times. *No EDGE. In past games, the favorite won the game straight up 5 times, while the underdog won straight up 5 times. 2 games went under the total, while 0 games went over the total. *No EDGE.
--In past games, the favorite covered first half line 13 times, while the underdog covered first half line 7 times. *No EDGE. 3 games went over first half total, while 3 games went under first half total. *No EDGE.
•SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS: Play Against - Road underdogs versus the 1rst half line (ATLANTA) – average team (+/- 0.4 YPP) against a good team (outgaining opponent by 0.4 to 1 YPP), off an upset win by 10 or more as a home underdog, team with a losing record in the second half of the season.
(55-23 since 1983.) (70.5%, +29.7 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 3.3
The average first half score in these games was: Team 14.7, Opponent 7.3 (Average first half point differential = +7.4)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (4-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (8-3).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (15-7).
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