STATSYSTEMS SPORTS MLB REPORT
FRIDAY, JUNE 27th 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Friday, 6/27/14 MLB Information *****
(ALL RESULTS VS. ML) - Against The Money-Line - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2014 Major League Baseball season we will analyze all of your daily baseball action, featuring on hot and cold pitchers, hot and cold teams, over/unders and home plate umpire trends. We will also highlight some of our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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MLB Betting News and Notes - Week #13
Earlier this week, StatSystems Sports looked at the Over/Under records in Major League Baseball games with totals of 10 or more runs, finding that there was a sharp decline in double-digit totals in recent seasons and that the Under has been a profitable play when the Over/Under reaches those heights. Then, the Colorado Rockies when 4-1-1 Over/Under in six straight games with double-digit totals.
Now, we flip the inquiry and look at the slimmest MLB totals over the past four seasons (2011-2014) to see if the Over or the Under hold any extra value when the baseball oddsmakers get stingy with the scores. The short answer to that question is “No”. During that four-year span, games which were tagged with totals of 6.5 runs or fewer are 290-302-12 O/U, including a 47-44 O/U mark so far this season. However, breaking it down by exact total, there is a slight edge to the Over in MLB games with totals of six runs, producing a 50-40-12 O/U mark since 2011 (55 percent Over), and a 5-2 O/U this season.
It’s interesting to note that there is currently an uptick in games with sub-7 run totals during the 2014 season. So far, the current MLB schedule has featured 99 games with totals of 6.5 or shorter and we’re just wrapping up June. There were only 117 of those totals in 2013 (51-63-3 O/U) – including zero totals below six runs. Books posted 175 numbers of 6.5 or smaller in 2012 (85-86-4 O/U) and 213 of them in 2011 (101-107-5 O/U). Compare 2014’s current sub-7 total pace to the number of double-digit totals – 31 – in the first three months of the season and it’s easy to see that the pitching is the precedent in the modern major leagues.
The one team producing the lowest totals in 2014 are the San Diego Padres (25-50-4 O/U), who have been featured in 25 of the 99 games with totals of 6.5 or fewer. San Diego has posted a 13-15 Over/Under record in those games, with a 9-13 O/U mark inside Petco Park – which ranks 26th in ballpark factor (0.915). Thursday’s MLB schedule features one game with a total under seven runs – a 6.5-run total between St. Louis and Los Angeles with the Cardinals going with Adam Wainwright on the mound and the Dodgers handing the ball to Josh Beckett.
Note: There have been only 15 totals of 5.5 runs over the past four seasons (2011-2014). Those games have finished with a 8-7 Over/Under record.
Thursday's MLB Roundup
-- The Minnesota Twins promoted 20-year-old shortstop Jorge Polanco from Class A to the majors, the team announced Thursday. In 72 games with Class A Fort Myers, Polanco hit .289 (83-for-287) with 12 doubles, five home runs and 35 RBIs. Polanco, who was just named Florida State League Player of the Week, made 68 starts at shortstop and one at second base for Fort Myers. The Twins needed an infielder as shortstop Danny Santana is sidelined with left knee soreness. To make room for Polanco on the 25-man roster, the Twins optioned right-handed pitcher Yohan Pino to Triple-A Rochester. Pino made two starts for the Twins, posting a 6.30 ERA.
-- Boston Red Sox outfielder Shane Victorino, who was hoping he would return from his hamstring injury within the next week, had his rehab shut down with back soreness, according to reports. Victorino, 33, has been out since late May with the hamstring strain. He missed most of April with another hamstring strain. Victorino has battled numerous hamstring issues over the years but this is the first time his back is giving him a problem. In only 21 games between injuries, Victorino has hit .242 with one home run, 10 RBIs and two steals this season. He hit .294 with 15 homers, 61 RBIs and 21 steals in 122 games last season en route to the team's World Series title.
-- The Chicago White Sox designated left-handed pitcher Scott Downs for assignment and recalled left-hander Eric Surkamp from Triple-A Charlotte, the team announced Thursday. Surkamp, 26, has gone 3-4 with a 4.54 ERA in 73 1/3 innings, including 84 strikeouts in 14 games (11 starts) with Charlotte this season. This is his first year in the White Sox organization after being claimed off waivers from the San Francisco Giants on Dec. 23, 2013. Surkamp was 2-3 with a 7.36 ERA in seven starts with the Giants (2011, 2013). Downs, 38, went 0-2 with a 6.08 ERA in 23 2/3 innings, with 15 walks and 22 strikeouts in 38 games this season, his first with the Sox.
-- The Houston Astros called up right-hander Jose Veras from Triple-A Oklahoma City and designated for assignment veteran right-hander Kyle Farnsworth on Thursday. Veras, who was signed on June 15, hurled two scoreless innings on one hit while striking out four for Oklahoma City. He had been released by the Chicago Cubs five days earlier. Veras was 21 for 25 in save chances last year. The 38-year-old Farnsworth, who signed with Houston six weeks ago after being let go by the New York Mets, has surrendered six earned runs on nine hits in his last 5 1/3 innings. He is 0-3 with a 4.40 ERA in 28 2/3 innings this year.
-- Pittsburgh Pirates left fielder Starling Marte was not in the starting lineup for a second straight game after suffering concussion-like symptoms Tuesday night while sliding into second base in a game at Tampa Bay. The head and neck are no longer a problem, but Marte is still feeling the effects of a jammed right middle finger.
-- The New York Mets activated center fielder Juan Lagares from the 15-day disabled list before the game and optioned infielder Wilmer Flores to Triple-A Las Vegas. Lagares had been out since June 2 with a right intercostal strain.
-- Pirates left-hander Francisco Liriano had a 30-pitch bullpen session, the first time he had thrown off a mound since going on the disabled list on June 11 with a left oblique strain.
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Betting Notes - Friday
National League
•Nationals-Cubs - 4:05 PM
--Roark is 4-0, 1.48 in his last four starts.
--Hammel is 1-2, 2.81 in his last five starts.
--Washington lost six of last eight on road.
--Cubs lost four of their last six games.
--Five of last seven Roark starts stayed under total.
•Braves-Phillies - 7:05 PM
--Teheran is 0-2, 4.64 in his last three starts.
--Kendrick is 2-2, 4.78 in his last five starts.
--Braves are 6-9 in their last fifteen games overall.
--Phillies are 6-4 in their last ten home games.
--Under is 10-2-1 in last thirteen Teheran starts.
•Mets-Pirates - 7:05 PM
--DeGrom is 1-4, 3.75 in his first eight MLB starts.
--Cumpton is 3-0, 3.09 in his last four starts.
--Mets won five of their last eight games.
--Pirates won five of their last six games.
--Four of last five New York games went over the total.
•Rockies-Brewers - 8:10 PM
--Matzek is 1-2, 5.19 in three starts this season.
--Lohse is 2-0, 3.79 in his last three starts.
--Colorado lost nine of its last ten games.
--Brewers won eight of their last eleven games.
--Five of last six Lohse starts went over the total.
•Arizona-San Diego - 10:10 PM
--McCarthy is 0-5, 6.59 in his last five starts.
--Ross is 0-3, 5.04 in his last four starts.
--Diamondbacks lost ten of their last fourteen games.
--Padres won five of their last eight games.
--Seven of last eight Ross starts stayed under the total.
•Cardinals-Dodgers - 10:10 PM
--Martinez is 1-0, 4.00 in two starts this season.
--Ryu is 6-1, 3.12 in his last seven starts.
--Cardinals won four of their last six games.
--Dodgers won ten of their last thirteen games.
--Under is 14-4-2 in last twenty St Louis games.
•Reds-Giants - 10:15 PM
--Cueto is 2-0, 2.25 in his last three starts.
--Bumgarner is 4-1, 1.84 in his last six starts.
--Cincinnati won ten of its last thirteen road games.
--Giants lost nine of their last eleven home games.
--Four of last five Bumgarner home starts went over.
American League
•Rays-Orioles - 1:05 PM
--Colome was 1-1, 2.25 in three starts LY; he's allowed two innings in four IP in relief this year, was 3-2, 3.00 in eight minor league starts this year. Odorizzi is 1-1, 1.35 in his last three starts.
--Gausman is 3-0, 0.95 in his last three starts. Tillman is 1-2, 1.80 in his last three outings.
--Tampa Bay lost 11 of its last 13 road games.
--Orioles won six of their last eight games.
--Ten of fifteen Odorizzi starts went over the total.
•White Sox-Blue Jays - 7:05 PM
--Danks is 3-1, 3.81 in his last four starts.
--Dickey is 0-2, 4.12 in his last three starts.
--White Sox lost ten of their last eleven road games.
--Blue Jays won four of their last five home games.
--Seven of last ten Danks starts went over the total.
•Boston-Yankees - 7:05 PM
--Workman is 1-0, 2.55 in his last three starts.
--Nuno is 0-4, 6.96 in his last eight starts.
--Red Sox lost 12 of their last 15 road games.
--Yankees lost four of its last five games.
--Five of last seven Nuno starts stayed under total.
•Twins-Rangers - 8:05 PM
--Correia is 2-1, 1.50 in his last three starts.
--Tepesch is 1-2, 6.27 in his last four starts.
--Minnesota lost its last eight road games.
--Rangers lost their last eight games overall.
--Under is 5-1-1 in Minnesota's last seven road games.
•Tigers-Astros - 8:10 PM
--Verlander is 0-3, 7.71 in his last four starts.
--Peacock is 2-0, 2.93 in his last five starts.
--Detroit won six of its last seven games.
--Houston lost eight of its last ten games.
--Last eight Verlander starts went over the total.
•Angels-Royals - 8:10 PM
--Shoemaker is 5-0, 3.42 in seven starts this season.
--Vargas is 3-1, 2.27 in his last six starts.
--Angels won their last six games, but lost nine of last 12 on road.
--Kansas City lost six of its last seven games.
--Four of last five Shoemaker starts went over the total.
•Indians-Mariners - 10:10 PM
--Bauer is 1-1, 5.11 in his last four starts.
--Young is 1-0, 0.69 in his last couple starts.
--Cleveland lost five of its last seven games.
--Seattle won five of its last six games.
--Nine of last ten Young starts stayed under total.
Interleague
•Athletics-Marlins - 7:10 PM
--Chavez is 2-1, 2.88 in his last four starts.
--DeSclafani is 0-2, 9.39 in his last three starts.
--A's won eight of their last eleven games.
--Miami lost four of its last five home games.
--Six of last nine Miami games stayed under.
Diamond Trends - Friday
•ST LOUIS is 30-5 (+24.4 Units) against the money line revenging a loss versus opponent as a road favorite over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was ST LOUIS 5.7, OPPONENT 2.8.
•BALTIMORE is 13-1 UNDER (+11.9 Units) in home games against division opponents this season.
The average score was BALTIMORE 2.7, OPPONENT 2.7.
•TAMPA BAY is 8-28 (-22.7 Units) against the run line versus poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game this season.
The average score was TAMPA BAY 2.8, OPPONENT 4.5.
•JUSTIN VERLANDER is 6-17 (-23.5 Units) against the money line versus American League teams scoring 4.2 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was VERLANDER 4.0, OPPONENT 5.3.
•CHRIS TILLMAN is 12-2 UNDER (+9.7 Units) in home games versus an American League team with an on base percentage .330 or worse over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was TILLMAN 3.5, OPPONENT 3.5.
•JOHN DANKS is 1-12 (-13.8 Units) against the run line versus poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DANKS 2.8, OPPONENT 4.8.
Situation Analysis of The Day
•Play Against - Home underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (NY YANKEES) - poor power team (<=0.9 HR's/game) against a starting pitcher who gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start, with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 to 1.400 on the season-AL.
(72-22 since 1997.) (76.6%, +42.4 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -134.5
The average score in these games was: Team 5.6, Opponent 3.7 (Average run differential = +1.9)
The situation's record this season is: (2-1, +0.6 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (11-6, +2.6 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (30-13, +11.5 units).
•Play On - Home teams against a run line. (+1.5, -130) to (-1.5, +160) (BALTIMORE) - bad offensive team (<=4.5 runs/game) against a decent starting pitcher (ERA=4.20 to 4.70) - American League, with an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game.
(63-22 since 1997.) (74.1%, +44.8 units. Rating = 5*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (57-28)
The average run line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 0.7, money line price: +106
The average score in these games was: Team 5, Opponent 4.2 (Average run differential = +0.8)
The number of games in which this system covered the run line by 1 or more runs was 53 (62.4% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (5-1, +5.3 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (22-8, +15.9 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (34-13, +23.5 units).
•Play Over - All teams where the total is 8.5 to 10 (TORONTO) - an average American League offensive team (4.7 to 5.2 runs/game) against a decent starting pitcher (ERA=4.20 to 4.70) -AL, after allowing 2 runs or less.
(42-12 over the last 5 seasons.) (77.8%, +29.4 units. Rating = 4*)
The average total posted in these games was: 9, Money Line=-105
The average score in these games was: Team 6.7, Opponent 5.4 (Total runs scored = 12.1)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 1 or more runs was 34 (61.8% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (3-1, +2 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (24-7, +17 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (150-125, +14.6 units).
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w-thumbs!^
