STATSYSTEMS SPORTS MLB REPORT
FRIDAY, MAY 16th 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
_______________________________________
***** Friday, 5/16/14 MLB Information *****
(ALL RESULTS VS. ML) - Against The Money-Line - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2014 Major League Baseball season we will analyze all of your daily baseball action, featuring on hot and cold pitchers, hot and cold teams, over/unders and home plate umpire trends. We will also highlight some of our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
_____________________________________________________
MLB Betting News and Notes - Week #7
•Reds' Cueto Is On Historic Run Of Spectacular Pitching: Right-hander Johnny Cueto's success through nine starts is something to behold. And his teammates believe the rest of the country should take notice. On Thursday afternoon, Cueto pitched his fourth complete-game shutout -- his second this season -- in a 5-0 win over the San Diego Padres. Cueto allowed just three hits en route to his ninth complete game -- third this year -- while lowering his major-league-leading ERA to 1.25.
Cueto's the first big-league pitcher since 1909 to pitch at least seven innings in his first nine starts while allowing two earned runs or fewer. He hasn't allowed more than five hits in any game this season. Cueto, who has allowed five runs in 55 innings this season and has pitched into the eighth inning in six straight starts, said he didn't feel particularly before Thursday's outing, which came on a cool afternoon at Great American Ball Park following Wednesday's postponement due to rain. "When you have more days off than normal, your body gets heavier," Cueto said through interpreter Tomas Vera.
"I didn't feel loose or as strong in the bullpen. I worked around it." Reds catcher Brayan Pena said Cueto (4-2) is so confident in his pitches right now that occasionally he has to pull in the reins. "Sometimes I have to be the bad guy," Pena said. "He trusts his pitches so much, he's not afraid to throw any of them behind (in) the count. His mindset is so strong, it's fun to be behind the plate for him and hopefully all the position players say the same thing." When asked if he's the best pitcher in baseball right now, Cueto responded with confidence, "I would say yes. The numbers talk."
•Marlins' Fernandez To Have Surgery Friday: Miami Marlins ace Jose Fernandez will undergo Tommy John surgery on Friday morning in Los Angeles. The right-handed Fernandez was found to have a tear in the ulnar collateral ligament earlier in the week. Manager Mike Redmond announced Thursday that Fernandez would have the ligament transplant operation. The usual recovery time for Tommy John surgery is 12-18 months. Fernandez, 4-2 with a 2.44 ERA, felt pain in his last start against the Padres in San Diego, and went for an MRI, when the tear was discovered. Noted surgeon Neal ElAttrache will perform the surgery.
•Tanaka, Abreu Worth Every Penny So Far: Even though teams invested big money in them during the offseason, no one knew for sure how Masahiro Tanaka and Jose Abreu were going to perform in their first seasons in the major leagues. Tanaka went 24-0 with Rakuten Golden Eagles of the Japanese Pacific League last season then signed a seven-year, $155-million free agent contract with the New York Yankees, who also had to pay a $20-million posting fee to Rakuten.
Abreu showed enough promise as a slugging on the Cuban national team that the Chicago White Sox were willing to spent $68 million over six seasons to sign him following his defection. Both have proven to be worth every penny so far. Tanaka recorded his first major league shutout Wednesday night, four-hitting the New York Mets, and is 6-0 with a 2.17 ERA in eight starts. Earlier in the day, Abreu's three-run home run, his major league-leading 15th, powered the Chicago White Sox to a 4-2 victory over the Oakland Athletics, and raised his RBI total to an American League-best 41 through 42 games.
Betting Notes - Friday
•Hot Pitchers
-- Samardzija has a 1.93 RA in eight starts, but no wins.
-- Niese is 2-1, 1.65 in his last five starts. Roark is 1-1, 2.63 in his last four.
-- Santana is 4-0, 1.99 in his six starts.
-- De La Rosa is 4-0, 2.63 in his last four starts.
-- Greinke is 4-1, 2.36 in his last six starts.
-- Alvarez is 2-1, 2.91 in his last five starts.
-- Gray is 1-0, 2.25 in his last three starts.
-- Scherzer is 5-0, 1.64 in his last five starts. Lester is 2-0, 1.80 in his last couple starts.
-- Darvish is 2-0, 1.80 in his last two starts.
-- McHugh is 2-1, 3.16 in four starts for Houston.
-- Young is 3-0, 2.29 in his last three starts.
-- Weaver is 4-0, 1.71 in his last five starts.
•Cold Pitchers
-- Lohse is 0-0, 3.93 in his last three starts; Brewers are 6-2 when he starts.
-- Kendrick is 0-3, 5.25 in his last six starts. Simon is 0-1, 7.20 in his last two.
-- Lynn is 0-3, 4.63 in his last four starts.
-- Stults is 0-3, 7.13 in his four road starts.
-- Miley is 0-2, 5.06 in three starts versus LA this season.
-- Petit has a 6.97 RA in his first two starts.
-- McAllister is 0-3, 6.20 in his last four starts.
-- Hutchison is 0-2, 5.59 in his last three starts.
-- Gibson is 0-3, 8.68 in his last four starts.
-- Tillman is 1-1, 6.75 in his last four starts. Guthrie is 0-2, 5.06 in his last five.
-- Quintana is 0-3, 4.50 in his last five starts.
-- Archer is 0-1, 6.97 in his last four starts.
-- Volquez is 0-3, 6.85 in his last four starts. Phelps is 0-0, 4.36 in two starts.
•Totals
-- 11 of last 14 Milwaukee road games went over total.
-- Five of last seven Washington home games stayed under.
-- Eight of last nine Cincinnati games stayed under.
-- Under is 9-2-1 in last twelve Atlanta games. Over is 6-0-1 in Cardinals' last seven games.
-- Five of last seven games at Coors Field went over. 15 of last 18 San Diego road games stayed under.
-- Four of last five Arizona games stayed under; last five Dodger games went over the total.
-- Last six Miami games went over the total.
-- Five of last six Cleveland home games stayed under.
-- Under is 9-4 in Boston's last thirteen games./
-- Five of last seven Texas games stayed under.
-- Under is 5-1-1 in Orioles' last seven road games.
-- Five of White Sox' last seven road games stayed under.
-- Five of last seven Minnesota home games stayed under.
-- Four of last six Tampa Bay road games stayed under.
-- Under is 6-2-1 in last nine Pirate road games.
•Hot Teams
-- Brewers won four of their last five games.
-- Cardinals won seven of their last ten games.
-- Padres won five of its last six games.
-- Giants won 16 of their last 21 games.
-- Athletics won six of their last seven games. Cleveland won seven of its last nine home games.
-- Tigers won their last eight road games. Boston won four of their last five home games.
-- Blue Jays won three of their last four games.
-- Astros won three of their last four games.
-- Twins won four of their last five home games.
-- Rays won six of last nine on road. Los Angeles won six of their last seven games overall.
•Cold Teams
-- Cubs lost nine of their last eleven games.
-- Mets lost ten of their last fourteen games. Washington is 3-5 in its last eight.
-- Phillies lost seven of last nine games. Cincinnati lost their last five away games.
-- Braves lost six of their last seven road games.
-- Rockies lost five of its last six games.
-- Marlins lost six of its last seven road games.
-- Dodgers are 4-8 in last 12 games. Arizona lost 14 of its last 17 home games.
-- Rangers lost six of its last eight home games.
-- Royals lost five of last seven home games. Baltimore lost four of last five games, but are 7-2 in last nine on road.
-- White Sox lost four of their last five road games.
-- Mariners lost three of last four games, but won seven of last nine on road.
-- Yankees lost six of its last seven home games. Pirates lost 11 of their last 14 road games.
Diamond Trends - Friday
•PHILADELPHIA is 4-22 (-22.6 Units) against the money line after 2 straight games where the bullpen gave up no runs over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PHILADELPHIA 2.9, OPPONENT 6.4.
•TEXAS is 18-3 UNDER (+14.7 Units) in home games after 2 straight games without a stolen base over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was TEXAS 3.3, OPPONENT 3.0.
•BALTIMORE is 0-12 (-14.2 Units) against the run line versus teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game this season.
The average score was BALTIMORE 2.7, OPPONENT 4.4.
•JORGE DE LA ROSA is 16-0 (+17.9 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DE LA ROSA 6.2, OPPONENT 3.4.
•JOSE QUINTANA is 15-2 UNDER (+12.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was QUINTANA 3.2, OPPONENT 3.2.
•LANCE LYNN is 15-2 (+14.4 Units) against the run line versus National League teams scoring 3.8 or less runs/game on the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was LYNN 6.9, OPPONENT 2.5.
Situation Analysis of The Day
•Play Against - All underdogs with a money line of +100 to +150 (ARIZONA) - on a good fielding streak, 10 straight games with one or less errors, with a well rested bullpen - threw <= 1 inning in each of the last 2 games.
(37-6 over the last 5 seasons.) (86.0%, +28.7 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -137.5
The average score in these games was: Team 5.4, Opponent 3.5 (Average run differential = +2)
The situation's record this season is: (0-1, -1.5 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (14-2, +11.3 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (104-62, +20.3 units).
•Play On - Home teams against a run line. (+1.5, -130) to (-1.5, +160) (ARIZONA) - bad offensive team (<=4.1 runs/game) against a very good starting pitcher (ERA<=3.00) (National League), after 2 straight games where they stranded 5 or less runners on base.
(50-14 since 1997.) (78.1%, +40.9 units. Rating = 5*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (45-19)
The average run line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 0.6, money line price: +110
The average score in these games was: Team 4.5, Opponent 3.3 (Average run differential = +1.2)
The number of games in which this system covered the run line by 1 or more runs was 40 (62.5% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (2-0, +3.5 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (24-4, +22.2 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (31-6, +28.1 units).
•Play Over - All teams where the total is 7 or less (ATLANTA) - horrible offensive team - scoring <=3.3 runs/game on the season (National League) against opponent terrible offensive team - scoring <=3.8 runs/game on the season (NL).
(53-17 since 1997.) (75.7%, +36.3 units. Rating = 4*)
The average total posted in these games was: 6.7, Money Line=+100.6
The average score in these games was: Team 4.3, Opponent 4.3 (Total runs scored = 8.6)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 1 or more runs was 39 (52.7% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (8-2, +6.4 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (41-12, +29.3 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (50-14, +36.3 units).
___________________________________________
w-thumbs!^
