THE SPORTS ADVISORS
FRIDAY, AUGUST 28
NFL PRESEASON
New England (1-1 SU and ATS) at Washington (1-1 SU and ATS)
Tom Brady leads the Patriots into FedEx Field to take on the Redskins as the preseason continues with Week 3 games, when coaches typically have their starters on the field for the longest stretches prior to the regular season.
New England mustered just a pair of first-half field goals on Aug. 20, losing 7-6 at home to Cincinnati as a 6½-point favorite. Brady was in for two possessions, leading a 57-yard drive that ended with a field goal on the Pats’ first drive. Tonight, Brady and the rest of the starters are expected to play into the second half, giving the quarterback his biggest test yet on his surgically repaired knee. Brady will be followed by Kevin O’Connell, with rookie Brian Hoyer perhaps seeing some mop-up time.
Washington held off Pittsburgh 17-13 Saturday to cash as a 3½-point home chalk, as the Steelers played without injured QB Ben Roethlisberger. Coach Jim Zorn said he expects to play his starters at least two quarters, and QB Jason Campbell may need the extra work after going just 1-for-7 for 10 yards over three possessions last week. Zorn said his three backup QBs – Todd Collins, Colt Brennan and rookie Chase Daniel – will also see action. Last week, the undrafted Daniel threw two TD passes in the second half to guide Washington’s comeback win.
New England is now 1-5 SU and ATS in preseason action since the start of last year, and it is 1-5 SU and 1-4-1 ATS in its last six exhibition road games. The Patriots are 5-2 ATS in Week 3 of preseason play the last seven years, including a 41-0 home rout of the Redskins in 2006.
Despite last week’s win, the Redskins are still just 6-12 SU and ATS in their last 18 exhibition outings, including 2-4 SU and ATS at home. Washington is also in a 1-3 SU and ATS rut in Week 3 action, not including a 2007 contest at Baltimore that was canceled in the third quarter because of lightning. The Redskins’ last three Week 3 defeats have been by a combined score of 116-6.
The under is 3-1 in New England’s last four preseason road contests, and the under is 5-1 in Washington’s last five August games overall and 5-0 in its last five at FedEx Field.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NEW ENGLAND and UNDER
Green Bay (2-0 SU and ATS) at Arizona (0-2 SU and ATS)
The Packers aim to keep their perfect preseason going when they travel to the desert to take on the defending NFC champion Cardinals at University of Phoenix Stadium.
Green Bay dumped Buffalo 31-21 Saturday as a three-point home chalk, scoring touchdowns on its first three possessions behind QB Aaron Rodgers (8 of 9, 98 yards, 2 TDs) en route to a 21-0 lead. Coach Mike McCarthy said Rodgers and the starters will play the entire first half and perhaps into the third quarter. Matt Flynn is the No. 2 QB, but he is doubtful with a minor shoulder injury, so fellow second-year pro Brian Brohm will finish out the game after Rodgers exits.
Arizona lost to San Diego 17-6 Saturday giving three points at home, getting just two Neil Rackers field goals in the first and third quarters. QB Kurt Warner (6 of 13, 80 yards, 1 INT) was in for four possessions, but the Cards’ only score came entirely due to LaRod Stephens-Howling’s 89-yard return of the opening kick. Warner and the starters are expected to play the first half, with Matt Leinart replacing Warner. It’s uncertain if third-string QB Brian St. Pierre (back) will play.
The Packers, who haven’t had a winning preseason since 2002, have now cashed in four straight games in August (3-1 SU), but they’re still just 6-8 SU and 7-7 ATS in three-plus years of preseason play under McCarthy, including 2-4 SU and ATS on the road. Additionally, Green Bay is 2-4 SU and ATS in Week 3 over the past six summers.
Arizona has now lost all five preseason home games since Ken Whisenhunt took over (1-4 ATS) and is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine as a preseason chalk, including 0-4 ATS the last two-plus years. However, unlike Green Bay, the Cardinals have been a strong play in Week 3 over the last six years, cashing in all six games while going 4-2 SU.
The over is 10-4 in Green Bay’s 14 preseason contests under McCarthy, with the last three on the highway topping the total. Meanwhile, Arizona has stayed low in its first two preseason games after a 7-3 “over” stretch in August competition.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ARIZONA
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Atlanta (67-60) at Philadelphia (73-52)
Pedro Martinez (2-0, 5.14 ERA) toes the slab for the Phillies when they open a three-game set at Citizens Bank Park against the N.L. East rival Braves, who will counter with rookie Tommy Hanson (9-2, 3.12).
Philadelphia just dropped two of three at Pittsburgh, needing 10 innings to get a 4-1 win Wednesday before blowing a 2-1, eighth-inning lead in Thursday’s finale, losing 3-2. However, the Phillies remain one of the hottest teams in baseball, having won 12 of their last 16, and they are on further streaks of 36-18 overall, 5-1 against winning teams and 19-7 at home.
Atlanta dropped the first two games of its home series with the Padres before getting back on track with a 9-1 win Thursday. The Braves are just 2-8 in their last 10 series openers, but they are on upticks of 5-1 on the highway and 4-1 in division play. Also, in this rivalry, Atlanta is 8-4 this season against the Phillies, going 6-2 in the last eight overall and 6-2 in the last eight in Philly.
The Phillies are 3-0 since Martinez joined the rotation, despite the former Cy Young winner’s mediocre ERA. On Sunday against the Mets, the right-hander gave up four runs on seven hits (two homers), getting a 9-7 road victory. Both of Martinez’s wins have come on the road, as he gave up a run in three innings in his first home start (5-1 win over Arizona). The 37-year-old is 11-10 with a 3.70 ERA in 30 career outings (23 starts) against Atlanta.
Hanson, who turns 23 today, has won his last four starts, allowing eight runs in 25 2/3 innings for a 2.80 ERA, and he has 23 strikeouts over his last three outings, all at home (19 2/3 innings). On Saturday, he allowed three runs on four hits and three walks in seven innings of a 4-3 victory over Florida, striking out seven. Hanson is 3-1 with a 2.70 ERA in six road starts this year, and this will be his first career start against Philadelphia.
With Hanson dealing, the Braves are on runs of 6-2 against winning teams and 5-2 in series openers.
The under for Philadelphia is on tears of 10-4 overall, 4-0 against wining teams, 6-1 in the N.L. East and 17-5 against righty starters, and in this rivalry, the total has stayed low in four straight games. However, with the Braves on the road, the over is on rolls of 7-2 overall and 5-1 against winning teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PHILADELPHIA
Colorado (72-56) at San Francisco (69-59)
The top two teams in the N.L. wild-card chase get together for the second time in a week, this time at AT&T Park, where the Giants will send ace Tim Lincecum (12-4, 2.43 ERA) against Ubaldo Jimenez (12-9, 3.36) and the Rockies to open a three-game series.
San Francisco bounced back from losing three of four at Colorado last weekend by taking two of three at home against Arizona, though it got hammered 11-0 last night in the series finale. The Giants are just 2-5 in their last seven outings against winning teams, but they are on streaks at home of 38-19 overall and 9-5 against winning squads.
Colorado lost two of three at home to the Dodgers, including a 3-2 setback Thursday that left the Rocks four games behind N.L. West-leading Los Angeles and three games ahead of San Francisco for the wild card. The Rockies are 52-25 in their last 77 games, and on the road, they are on upswings of 4-0 overall and 21-6 against righty starters, but they’ve lost five straight as a road pup.
The Rockies have won five of the last six in this rivalry and are on further runs against the Giants of 4-1 behind Jimenez and 4-1 facing Lincecum. The same two pitchers squared off Sunday, with Jimenez allowing two runs in eight innings to outduel Lincecum (three runs in seven innings) in a 4-2 Colorado victory.
San Francisco has won four of its last six behind Lincecum, but the 25-year-old has allowed eight runs in 13 innings over his last two starts (5.53 ERA). In Sunday’s 4-2 setback at Colorado, he held the Rockies hitless for 5 1/3 innings and ended up allowing three runs on three hits – including the decisive two-run homer -- with five walks and seven strikeouts.
Lincecum is 7-1 with a sterling 1.98 ERA in 13 home starts this season, but he’s just 3-3 with a 4.33 ERA in nine career starts against Colorado. The Giants are on runs behind the right-hander of 5-1 at home and 8-2 with the right-hander favored.
Jimenez has won his last five starts, allowing just seven runs over 38 2/3 innings for a 1.62 ERA, and he’s gone eight innings in four of those outings, including the last three in a row. Against the Giants on Sunday, he scattered six hits and two walks over his eight innings, striking out nine.
Jimenez is 5-5 with a 3.48 ERA in 14 road starts this year, and he’s 3-2 with a 2.41 ERA in eight career starts against San Francisco. Still, the Rockies are on slides behind Jimenez of 10-23 on the highway and 1-5 in roadies against winning teams.
The under for San Francisco is on a bundle of rolls, including 27-11-2 with the Giants favored, 6-2 behind Lincecum and 4-0 with the reigning Cy Young winner facing a winning team. For Colorado, the under is on a 7-2-1 overall stretch, and with Jimenez throwing, the under is on runs of 5-0 overall, 5-0 against winning teams and 10-3 on the road against winning units.
Finally, in this rivalry, the total has stayed low in four straight meetings at AT&T Park, and the under is 6-2 in Jimenez’s last eight starts against the Giants.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
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