mti
5-Star Indiana +6' over ATLANTA -- The Hawks are in a battle with Miami for the four-spot in the playoffs. This has inflated the line a bit here. We expect the Pacers to be loose and the Hawks to be tight, so we're grabbing the points.
The last meeting between these two was also in Atlanta. In that game, the Hawks won 101-87 laying 5'. They were led by Joe Johnson's 30 points while TJ Ford led the Pacers with 29. Granger was OUT for Indiana. He's back for this one and we're getting MORE points?
Looking at the trends, we see that the Pacers are 5-0 ATS (+7.6 ppg) when seeking revenge for a loss in which Tj Ford was the Pacers' high scorer and the Hawks are 0-5 ATS (-10.7 ppg) at home after winning the previous matchup at home in which Joe Johnson was the Hawks' high scorer.
Also, Indiana is 5-0 ATS (8.9 ppg) as a road dog when seeking revenge for a loss in which they led at the half and 6-0 ATS (+10.9 ppg) as a road dog when seeking revenge for a loss as a dog in which fewer than 50% of their baskets were assisted.
The Pacers are playing VERY well right now. They have shot 50%+ from the field in EACH of their last five games and have scored an average of 119.8 ppg. Danny Granger is making a late push for the Most Improved Player award. In their last game, however, they shot poorly from the arc, making only 4-of-20 from long range. The Hawks are off two wins, but they lost three straight before that and the wins were in Toronto and Milwaukee. Atlanta has not been sharp in this spot, going 0-6 ATS (-11.8 ppg) as a favorite when they won their last two games and both were on the road -- losing each of the last five straight up. Their last qualifying game came on February 7th, when they lost 121-97 at home to the Clippers laying 7 points. We expect a very similar score here. Take the Pacers on the moneyline.
MTi's FORECAST: Indiana 115 ATLANTA 98