I think this is the one your looking for--
LAS VEGAS -- And then there were two.
Kentucky and UConn meet in Monday night's NCAA championship in the unprecedented matchup of No. 7 and No. 8 seeds, but they've shown all tournament long they could go toe-to-toe with the top contenders. In Saturday's Final Four, UConn knocked off No. 1 overall seed Florida 63-53 as a 7-point underdog and plus-300 on the money line and Kentucky outlasted Wisconsin 74-73 on
Aaron Harrison's 3-pointer in a game that pushed against the consensus closing line of Kentucky minus-1 (though earlier Badgers bettors cashed at plus-2 and plus-1.5).
And now for the title game with ESPN Insider's Vegas contributors Ted Sevransky, Geoff Kulesa and yours truly, Dave Tuley.
[h=3]No. 7
Connecticut Huskies versus No. 8
Kentucky Wildcats[/h]
LVH Line: Kentucky minus-3
PickCenter Consensus Pick: 51 percent picked Kentucky
Tuley's Take: Both these teams have been very, very good to me throughout the tournament. I passed on UConn in its first game against St. Joe's, which by all rights the Huskies should have lost but ended up covering in overtime, but I've backed them as underdogs the past four games and they've shown they can play with anyone regardless of seed, including taking out No. 2 Villanova, No. 3 Iowa State, No. 4 Michigan State and No. 1 overall seed Florida.
I've made money on Kentucky a totally different way as the Wildcats were one of my future-book picks in ESPN Insider's NCAA Tournament Betting Guide when they were 40-1. I've been betting them on the money line each game, rolling over my winnings, and have turned my original $20 wager into $676. That's nearly 33-1 and includes me taking out a small profit when they made the Final Four, and they didn't even have to win the title to get that payoff. However, I'm ending that parlay now, as I'm going with a regular one-unit bet on underdog UConn.
Getty Images
As much as I like Kentucky, there's no reason that UConn should be getting points here. And I'm not just talking about UConn being a No. 7 seed and Kentucky a No. 8. Nor am I talking about all the McDonald's All-Americans on Kentucky. And both teams were underseeded of course. Instead, just look at their common opponent, Florida. UConn was 2-0 against the Gators while Kentucky was 0-3.
Shabazz Napier,
DeAndre Daniels & Co. match up just fine with the Wildcats, who still are without
Willie Cauley-Stein (who could be missed against UConn's guards). And it remains to be seen if
Alex Poythress was hurt in UK's postgame celebration.
The line has been wavering between Kentucky minus-2.5 and minus-3. As of this writing on Sunday, 11 a.m. PDT, the LVH had the line back up to 3.
ATS pick: UConn
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Tom Pennington/Getty ImagesKentucky center Willie Cauley-Stein will miss Monday night's national title game against Connecticut.
Ted "Covers" Sevransky: UConn is in the championship game for one primary reason -- it has played remarkably well on defense through the first five games of this tournament. Yes, the Huskies' backcourt duo of Napier and
Ryan Boatright has been brilliant offensively, too, and Daniels has elevated his game in the postseason.
But the Huskies have been held in the low 60s by both Michigan State and Florida -- two games that stayed under the total by double-digit margins. Since allowing St. Joe's to shoot 50 percent from the floor against them in their tournament opener, the Huskies have held their past four foes -- all strong offensive teams -- under 40 percent from the floor.
While UConn's defense has truly been stifling here in the postseason, let's be real -- none of its past four opponents brought its A-game. Villanova missed open shots. Iowa State missed its most versatile offensive player. Both Michigan State and Florida simply didn't play well. I'll certainly give UConn credit for rattling championship-caliber teams like the Spartans and Gators, but I'm not willing to say that it was all UConn's doing.
Good defense alone doesn't shut down Kentucky -- only good rebounding does. The Wildcats have spent the tournament playing considerable amounts of NBA-style basketball. John Calipari has relied on his extraordinary talent level, taking advantage of one-on-one matchups to get high percentage looks in the paint. And the Wildcats have been truly remarkable hitting the offensive glass, snaring 58 offensive rebounds in their first five tourney games. At times, Kentucky's best offense has been to chuck the ball up at the rim, then pound the offensive boards for easy putbacks. I don't see UConn solving that conundrum.
ATS Pick: Kentucky
Geoff Kulesa: Any UConn doubters still out there? The Huskies first took care of No. 2 seed Villanova, then No. 3 seed Iowa State, only to be rewarded with a matchup against Michigan State -- a team many had going to the Final Four. The Huskies beat MSU and then had to face the No. 1 seed in the tournament -- a team that had won 30 straight games. Florida was ranked No. 1 much of the season -- with only three losses -- and UConn beat the Gators twice, including the last game as a 'dog, 63-53.
John Woike/Hartford Courant/Getty ImagesRyan Boatright has been a tremendous pairing with Napier in UConn's backcourt.
The UConn defense was sensational in that game, allowing 38.5 percent shooting, and the offense never panicked after trailing 16-4. That's what great backcourt play and veteran leadership will do. The UConn backcourt is a deadly weapon behind Napier (18 PPG, 5.9 RPG, 4.9 APG) and junior Boatright. Daniels was dynamite against the Florida frontcourt as UConn torched one of the top defensive teams in the country for 55.8 percent shooting.
UConn is on a 7-1 ATS run and has the kind of defense and frontcourt muscle you need against Kentucky. While Connecticut has all that experience, Kentucky doesn't with all those one-and-done freshmen. Sophomore Cauley-Stein (ankle) is out. UConn shut down Florida twice, but this Kentucky team was 0-3 SU, 1-2 ATS against the Gators. The Wildcats are playing their best ball now but they barely escaped Wisconsin. Kentucky allowed the Badgers to shoot 46 percent from the field and 8-of-20 (40 percent) from long range. UConn matches up well in this game, is loaded with experience, has the superior guard play and is top notch defensively.
The Huskies are 14-3 ATS in NCAA tournament games and 26-10 ATS in their past 36 neutral-site games. They are also 11-2 straight-up in all tournament games under Kevin Ollie. The kids from Kentucky struggle from the line (14-21 against Wisconsin) and that could be the difference in an expected close game. Take the three points on Connecticut as the Huskies have an excellent chance of winning this game outright.
