WINNING POINTS...
COLLEGE...
****BEST BET
SOUTH CAROLINA* over TENNESSEE by 21
Having been a conservative coach throughout most of his career, it was a real gamble
for Phil Fulmer when he decided to give the QB reigns over to a coupe of freshman,
Erik Ainge and Brent Schaeffer. So far that gamble has paid off quite well, including
S.E.C. road wins at Georgia and Mississippi, but before we anoint these two as veterans,
rather than freshmen, there are some tests that have not been passed. They managed
to score first in each of those road wins, which took a great deal of the pressure
away and allowed Fulmer to carefully manage the game. But it will not always be that
way on the tough conference road, and we believe this is the week they must take the
test of facing a tough defense from behind. And as freshmen they will fail it. Here they
face a talented and experienced secondary that rates #5 in the nation in pass efficiency
defense, highlighted by an excellent ratio of 11 interceptions vs. only three touchdown
passes allowed. With two weeks to prepare the defensive game plan the
Gamecocks can feast on that inexperience, and having a bye also came at the right
time for the Carolina offense – it allows both Dondrell Pinkins and Syvelle Newton
to get healthy again, after they were forced to go far down the depth chart vs.
Kentucky. It also does not hurt to build the intensity as well, after the Gamecocks
watched too many replays of how they outplayed the Volunteers in that bitter 23-20
overtime loss at Knoxville LY (total offense was 371-266). They get their revenge in
style. SOUTH CAROLINA 35-14.
***BEST BET
ARMY over EAST CAROLINA* by 19
Bobby Ross is not going to get any national Coach of the Year mention, but the very
fact that the Black Knights can get back to .500 in Conference USA play here, after
not winning a game LY, speaks volumes about the work that he has done. Part of it is
that the reconstruction process was filled with genuine potential, with the biggest key
getting away from the spread passing attack of Todd Berry that was simple a poor fit
for the kind of athletes that they have at West Point. This program is all about
patience, determination and discipline, which means that the playbook needs to take
advantage of those strengths. Berry’s did not. Now Ross has Army back to solid fundamentals
and running the football, and therefore winning. The Black Knights have
only turned the ball over six times all season, whereas in Berry’s final campaign they
had three individual games of six or more. Making it go on the field is the solid running
tandem of Carlton Jones (532 yards at 6.1) and Tielor Robinson (311 at 6.9),
and it has been Jones that has really led the recent surge, with 405 yards at an amazing
10.7 per carry in the wins over Cincinnati and South Florida. Now the Knights
are coming off of a mid-season bye that should have their confidence at a very high
level, and that confidence is the only reason why they are just 2-3 in league play,
instead of possibly 4-1 – they were tied at Houston in the 4th quarter, and leading
T.C.U. at home in the final stanza. A fresh and hungry squad dominates this one
against a soft Pirate defensive front. ARMY 36-17.Dog Pound
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
**PREFERRED
Northwestern* over Purdue by 2
Just a couple of weeks ago Joe Tiller’s Boilermakers had to have trouble sleeping at night
because of the kind of dreams that were allowed to creep into their heads – dreams of
national championships and Heisman trophies. But the bottom line is that all they did
was open up against a soft schedule, and back-to-back humbling home losses to
Wisconsin and Michigan, each in games that they led in the fourth quarter, have
turned the season inside out. That makes this a real psychological danger spot, especially
having to go on the road against an opponent that will not create any special
motivation. Yet the real bottom line is that the talent gap between these two is not all
that wide, especially with Loren Howard now back to give Northwestern a playmaker
up front on defense. The Wildcat run/pass balanced has been exemplary this season,
and they can find plenty of room vs. a Purdue defense that is not going to dominate
anyone. NORTHWESTERN 26-24.
Auburn over Mississippi* by 28
Tommy Tuberville has won and covered both of his trips back to Oxford since leaving
Ole Miss to take over at Auburn, but as gratifying as those wins were, the 24-20 home
loss to the Rebels LY wiped away that satisfaction. It was a defeat that had Tuberville
on the verge of losing his job, until a win over Alabama kept him employed. Not only
is he still employed, but now has his Tigers positioned to make a run at the national
championship, and that makes getting revenge here more than just a minor motivator.
The key this season has been new offensive coordinator Al Borges, who is finally putting
those talented pieces into the right places, which is especially paying off for Jason
Campbell. Campbell is developing into one of the S.E.C.’s premier QB’s, and that is
something that David Cutcliffe simply does not have. Despite rotating his own QB’s
all season no one has clearly stepped up to take the job, and that can be disastrous
against this class of defense. AUBURN 38-10.
Central Michigan* over Western Michigan by 17
Although there are signs that the Western Michigan program is declining rapidly under
Gary Darnell, there is never a worse indication for any coach than when what was once
the main strength becomes a glaring weakness. Darnell prided himself on fielding
strong defensive teams, especially against the run, but in opening 0-4 SU and ATS in
M.A.C. play so far this season that foundation shows a major crack in it. The Broncos
are allowing 243 yards per game on the ground in league play at an alarming 5.5 per
carry, alarming in that this is not a great running conference this season. But running
the ball is something that the Chippewas do very well with Jerry Seymour, and in a
major game for first year coach Brian Kelly they dominate this right at the point of
attack. Kelly knows that turning this series around is one of his prime tasks, and with
a legitimate chance to kick sand in the face of the bully he is not going to let up. CENTRAL
MICHIGAN 38-21.
California* over Arizona State by 26
Much like Arizona State’s road trip to face U.S.C. three weeks ago was billed as a potential
battle for the Pac 10 championship, this one will be billed as the contest that will
likely decide second place. That is the position that some favorable scheduling and
bounces has a Sun Devil team that just is not up to this task. If we tally the three conference
wins so far we find that they trailed in first downs and total offense, but escape
with W’s because of a +6 turnover ratio. When they had to step up vs. the Trojans it
was no contest at all – 42-7 at halftime before Pete Carroll coasted him 3-0 the rest of
the way. Without a genuine lead RB to balance the offense Andrew Walter is a sitting
duck against this class of defense, and State is also showing some holes in its own secondary,
which has held only Oregon to less than 300 yards passing in Pac 10 play.
Explosive Bears coasted in a flat spot last week, and now their energy level is back to a
peak. CALIFORNIA 40-14.
Virginia Tech over Georgia Tech* by 6 (Thursday)
Each side enters this one off of a bye, but the Hokies also had only a 63-0 rout of
Florida A&M the previous week, so that means a level of freshness they have not
had since August. VIRGINIA TECH 23-17.
Boise State* over Hawaii by 24 (Friday)
Not an easy trip to make on a short week (plenty of stopovers), and given the way
that the Rainbows were whipped at U.T.E.P. and Rice already on the road this season
it becomes a long night for June Jones. BOISE STATE 41-17.
Miami-Fla. over North Carolina* by 22
Tar Heels badly needed a bye week to deal with some injury and off-field issue, but
at least that have some skill people that can attack a suddenly vulnerable Hurricane
defense. MIAMI F. 38-16.
Michigan* over Michigan State by 7
We have not wanted to buy into Drew Stanton’s numbers so far but perhaps he is
owed some respect here, especially with Michigan coming in off of that draining
win at Purdue while the Spartans are fresh off of a bye. MICHIGAN 27-20.
Ohio State* over Penn State by 6
With no offensive skill people for either side that can earn our trust, we have to sit
out a game that is more likely to be lost by a mistake, rather than won by someone
making a positive play. OHIO STATE 19-13.
Iowa over Illinois* by 9
Really tough for Ron Turner to decide whether to use his young QB’s to build for
a future that he is not guaranteed, or to go back to Jon Buetjer to try to save his
job. IOWA 26-17.
Minnesota over Indiana* by 19
Gophers regained their lost swagger last week, which spells bad news for a Hoosier
team that got out-rushed by 324 yards in this matchup LY. And fell by 48 on the
scoreboard, naturally. MINNESOTA 38-19.
West Virginia over Rutgers* by 18
After losing by counts of 80-7, 40-0 and 34-19 in his three meetings vs. the
Mountaineers so far, at least Gregg Schiano can claim that he is closing the gap. He
will notice no one in Rutgers scarlet smiling at that. WEST VIRGINIA 31-13.
CF *CLOSE CALLS
Wake Forest* over Duke by 21
After playing valiantly but coming up short against the upper echelons of the A.C.C.,
the Deacons finally get to face a pair of shades of blue that they can handle the next
two weeks. WAKE FOREST 38-17.
N. C. State over Clemson* by 6
Chuck Amato faces a motivational challenge here, after his Wolfpack first lost their
poise, and then their way, against Miami in prime time. N. C. STATE 23-17.
Missouri over Nebraska* by 4
The Tiger psyche may be a little bruised following that second half collapse at home
vs. Oklahoma State, but with the proper mindset they can actually enjoy a trip to
Lincoln for a change, with the Nebraska offense continuing to flounder vs. quality
defenses. MISSOURI 23-17.
Syracuse* over Connecticut by 6
First road game for the Huskies since September 17th, and only their second all season,
which makes the Carrier Dome even more of an advantage than usual.
Assuming, of course, that there are at least a few folks showing up dressed in Orange,
which is no longer a guarantee. SYRACUSE 27-21.
Oklahoma over Oklahoma State* by 11
Although Donovan Woods kept his poise at Missouri last week, the truth is that the
comeback win by the Cowboys was still paved more by their physical ground game.
There is no guarantee that they can make that part of their game work here. OKLAHOMA
27-16.
Kansas over Iowa State* by 9
Emerging talent gap between these two showing in a dominating 36-7 win in
Lawrence by the Jayhawks to close out last season, and the Iowa State statline from
Waco last week does not indicate that they have closed any of it. KANSAS 26-17.
Texas Tech over Kansas State* by 1
It has been a couple of seasons since Mike Leach and Bill Snyder have gone head-tohead,
but we remember well that Leach covered the spread in those two by a combined
59.5 points. Wildcat blitzing tactics not a good matchup for this offense.
TEXAS TECH 28-27.
Kentucky over Mississippi State* by 2
It is only natural that these Bulldogs suffer an emotional lapse after that brilliant performance
vs. Florida, while the Wildcats recognize that this is a rare chance for them
to win an S.E.C. game (and one of the few remaining for Rich Brooks). KENTUCKY
26-24.
Air Force over Wyoming* by 3
Although we have to respect the unblemished SU and ATS marks of these Cowboys
at home this season, we also have to weight the fact that Brigham Young and
Colorado State each just had their best rushing game of the season vs. this defense.
Never a good sign before facing Fisher DeBerry. AIR FORCE 26-23.
New Mexico over Colorado State* by 1
Caleb Hanie does not have nearly enough snaps under his belt to diagnose those
Lobo blitzes, especially with the usual Ram run support. NEW MEXICO 20-19.
Cincinnati* over T.C.U. by 8
Bearcats showed a renewed focus against Memphis following a needed bye week, and
that same energy level makes it easy against the hapless Horned Frog pass defense.
CINCINNATI 35-27.
Texas over Colorado* by 11
Returning Jason Klatt to the starting QB spot gave these Buffaloes a sense of offensive
direction last week, but Gary Barnett just does not have an antidote on the
defensive side of the ball. TEXAS 31-20.
Florida State over Maryland* by 15
Terrapin offense has reached the end zone once in the last three games, a meaningless
touchdown when trailing Georgia Tech 20-0 in the fourth quarter. No reason
why this defense allows the break-out. FLORIDA STATE 21-6.
Georgia over Florida by 11 (at Jacksonville)
Bulldogs actually dominated in the trenches (rushing was 202-89) but lost on the
scoreboard 16-13 in this one last year, but given the softness of that Gator defense
this time around, it is much easier for Mark Richt’s squad to turn their physical
advantages into points. GEORGIA 28-17.
Oregon* over Washington by 24
As bad as the Huskies have been, now they finally face someone that wants to take
out frustrations against them, with the Ducks remembering that 42-10 humbling of
last year. OREGON 34-10.
U.C.L.A.* over Stanford by 3
Not easy to do anything major with this until we learn more about the status of
Cardinal QB Trent Edwards later in the week. If he is able, a road upset becomes our
thought process. U.C.L.A. 24-21.
Kent State* over Ohio by 4
A case here of a bye week for the host carrying much added value, with the Bobcats
likely fatigued after having to face Marshall, Toledo and Bowling Green in succession.
KENT STATE 27-23.
Marshall* over Central Florida by 25
As easy as the win over Buffalo was on the scoreboard, that prideful Thundering
Herd defense allowed touchdowns on plays of 83 and 61 yards, which Bob Pruett
will remind them of all week. That keeps their focus on track an opponent that does
not inspire them in any way. MARSHALL 35-10.
Houston* over Tulane by 14
Lester Ricard somehow turned a disappointing effort into 417 yards passing and six
touchdown tosses vs. U.A.B., but whether or not his act will play on the road is
another matter. HOUSTON 38-24.
Northern Illinois over Ball State* by 18
Huskies have been allowing a lot of back door points in recent weeks, a sign either
of a lack of depth, or a lack of a concentration level. With next Saturday off, there is
not reason to not have the focus this week. NORTHERN ILLINOIS 35-17.
U.T.E.P. over San Jose State* by 19
Miners have now picked up five straight pointspread wins in double figures, a sign
that the oddsmakers are not even close to catching up to their improvements.
U.T.E.P. 36-17.
Bowling Green* over Eastern Michigan by 31
Hurons have held only Ball State to less than 31 points all season (and still gave up
24 points and 409 yards to the Cardinals), and most of those opponents were
nowhere near this class. BOWLING GREEN 52-21.
Oregon State over Arizona* by 10
These two appear to be heading in opposite directions right now, with the Beavers
finally finding some confidence, while the Wildcats are beginning to show signs of
wearing down. OREGON STATE 27-17.
Southern Cal over Washington State* by 27
The inexperienced Cougar QB’s are just being led to the slaughter. U.S.C. 34-7.
Rice over Tulsa* by 4
Off of back-to-back bitter defeats that have basically wrecked their season, we can not
expect the Golden Hurricanes to have the focus or determination to cope with the
Owl option for the full 60 minutes. RICE 28-24.
Texas A&M over Baylor* by 18
Bears are showing just enough real signs of life to hang around this one for a long
time, with the Aggies extremely distracted by the shadows of next week’s home game
vs. Oklahoma. TEXAS A&M 35-17.
L.S.U.* over Vanderbilt by 28
Off of that near-miss vs. Troy State, and with only another bye on deck. Nick Saban
will not tolerate anything less than a top effort here, against an opponent that rarely
has to face such. L.S.U. 41-13.
Fresno State* over S.M.U. by 22
Not easy for Pat Hill to find a new focus for a team that was whispering BCS a
month ago, and is now back to .500 with little reason to excite any bowl scouts. The
bottom line is that winning at Washington and Kansas State this season does not
mean all that much. FRESNO STATE 35-13.
Utah over San Diego State* by 21
With absolutely no depth at all in the OL, there are visible signs that the Aztec
offense is running low on fuel. Not the ideal matchup under those circumstances.
UTAH 37-16.
Middle Tennessee State* over Utah State by 12
Blue Raiders might have played their worst conference game ever vs. these Aggies LY,
trailing 35-0 in the fourth quarter of a 41-20 rout. Payback time. MIDDLE TENNESSEE
STATE 32-20.
Troy State* over Idaho by 17
Not the usual non-conference to conference transition, with the Trojans being close
enough to taste the upset at L.S.U. to suffer the hangover issues. TROY STATE 27-
10.
North Texas* over UL-Monroe by 13
They are doing it with offense this time, not defense, but the bottom line is that the
Mean Green continue to beat all comers in the Sun Belt. NO. TEXAS 30-17.
New Mexico State* over Florida International by 12
Tony Samuel gets a rare chance to face an opponent that does not see his option
schemes on a regular basis. NEW MEXICO STATE 31-19.
Toledo over Miami O.* by 3 (Tuesday)
Now that the Rocket defense has settled down as some young starters gain the necessary
experience, we will favor the steadier QB direction of Bruce Gradkowski to
pull this one out. TOLEDO 27-24.
U.A.B.* over South Florida by 13 (Wednesday)
Blazer defense gets its first chance to take out some frustrations since that ridiculous
collapse vs. Tulane, and the struggling Bulls might be just what the doctor ordered
for that unit to regain some confidence. U.A.B. 37-24.
COLLEGE...
****BEST BET
SOUTH CAROLINA* over TENNESSEE by 21
Having been a conservative coach throughout most of his career, it was a real gamble
for Phil Fulmer when he decided to give the QB reigns over to a coupe of freshman,
Erik Ainge and Brent Schaeffer. So far that gamble has paid off quite well, including
S.E.C. road wins at Georgia and Mississippi, but before we anoint these two as veterans,
rather than freshmen, there are some tests that have not been passed. They managed
to score first in each of those road wins, which took a great deal of the pressure
away and allowed Fulmer to carefully manage the game. But it will not always be that
way on the tough conference road, and we believe this is the week they must take the
test of facing a tough defense from behind. And as freshmen they will fail it. Here they
face a talented and experienced secondary that rates #5 in the nation in pass efficiency
defense, highlighted by an excellent ratio of 11 interceptions vs. only three touchdown
passes allowed. With two weeks to prepare the defensive game plan the
Gamecocks can feast on that inexperience, and having a bye also came at the right
time for the Carolina offense – it allows both Dondrell Pinkins and Syvelle Newton
to get healthy again, after they were forced to go far down the depth chart vs.
Kentucky. It also does not hurt to build the intensity as well, after the Gamecocks
watched too many replays of how they outplayed the Volunteers in that bitter 23-20
overtime loss at Knoxville LY (total offense was 371-266). They get their revenge in
style. SOUTH CAROLINA 35-14.
***BEST BET
ARMY over EAST CAROLINA* by 19
Bobby Ross is not going to get any national Coach of the Year mention, but the very
fact that the Black Knights can get back to .500 in Conference USA play here, after
not winning a game LY, speaks volumes about the work that he has done. Part of it is
that the reconstruction process was filled with genuine potential, with the biggest key
getting away from the spread passing attack of Todd Berry that was simple a poor fit
for the kind of athletes that they have at West Point. This program is all about
patience, determination and discipline, which means that the playbook needs to take
advantage of those strengths. Berry’s did not. Now Ross has Army back to solid fundamentals
and running the football, and therefore winning. The Black Knights have
only turned the ball over six times all season, whereas in Berry’s final campaign they
had three individual games of six or more. Making it go on the field is the solid running
tandem of Carlton Jones (532 yards at 6.1) and Tielor Robinson (311 at 6.9),
and it has been Jones that has really led the recent surge, with 405 yards at an amazing
10.7 per carry in the wins over Cincinnati and South Florida. Now the Knights
are coming off of a mid-season bye that should have their confidence at a very high
level, and that confidence is the only reason why they are just 2-3 in league play,
instead of possibly 4-1 – they were tied at Houston in the 4th quarter, and leading
T.C.U. at home in the final stanza. A fresh and hungry squad dominates this one
against a soft Pirate defensive front. ARMY 36-17.Dog Pound
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
**PREFERRED
Northwestern* over Purdue by 2
Just a couple of weeks ago Joe Tiller’s Boilermakers had to have trouble sleeping at night
because of the kind of dreams that were allowed to creep into their heads – dreams of
national championships and Heisman trophies. But the bottom line is that all they did
was open up against a soft schedule, and back-to-back humbling home losses to
Wisconsin and Michigan, each in games that they led in the fourth quarter, have
turned the season inside out. That makes this a real psychological danger spot, especially
having to go on the road against an opponent that will not create any special
motivation. Yet the real bottom line is that the talent gap between these two is not all
that wide, especially with Loren Howard now back to give Northwestern a playmaker
up front on defense. The Wildcat run/pass balanced has been exemplary this season,
and they can find plenty of room vs. a Purdue defense that is not going to dominate
anyone. NORTHWESTERN 26-24.
Auburn over Mississippi* by 28
Tommy Tuberville has won and covered both of his trips back to Oxford since leaving
Ole Miss to take over at Auburn, but as gratifying as those wins were, the 24-20 home
loss to the Rebels LY wiped away that satisfaction. It was a defeat that had Tuberville
on the verge of losing his job, until a win over Alabama kept him employed. Not only
is he still employed, but now has his Tigers positioned to make a run at the national
championship, and that makes getting revenge here more than just a minor motivator.
The key this season has been new offensive coordinator Al Borges, who is finally putting
those talented pieces into the right places, which is especially paying off for Jason
Campbell. Campbell is developing into one of the S.E.C.’s premier QB’s, and that is
something that David Cutcliffe simply does not have. Despite rotating his own QB’s
all season no one has clearly stepped up to take the job, and that can be disastrous
against this class of defense. AUBURN 38-10.
Central Michigan* over Western Michigan by 17
Although there are signs that the Western Michigan program is declining rapidly under
Gary Darnell, there is never a worse indication for any coach than when what was once
the main strength becomes a glaring weakness. Darnell prided himself on fielding
strong defensive teams, especially against the run, but in opening 0-4 SU and ATS in
M.A.C. play so far this season that foundation shows a major crack in it. The Broncos
are allowing 243 yards per game on the ground in league play at an alarming 5.5 per
carry, alarming in that this is not a great running conference this season. But running
the ball is something that the Chippewas do very well with Jerry Seymour, and in a
major game for first year coach Brian Kelly they dominate this right at the point of
attack. Kelly knows that turning this series around is one of his prime tasks, and with
a legitimate chance to kick sand in the face of the bully he is not going to let up. CENTRAL
MICHIGAN 38-21.
California* over Arizona State by 26
Much like Arizona State’s road trip to face U.S.C. three weeks ago was billed as a potential
battle for the Pac 10 championship, this one will be billed as the contest that will
likely decide second place. That is the position that some favorable scheduling and
bounces has a Sun Devil team that just is not up to this task. If we tally the three conference
wins so far we find that they trailed in first downs and total offense, but escape
with W’s because of a +6 turnover ratio. When they had to step up vs. the Trojans it
was no contest at all – 42-7 at halftime before Pete Carroll coasted him 3-0 the rest of
the way. Without a genuine lead RB to balance the offense Andrew Walter is a sitting
duck against this class of defense, and State is also showing some holes in its own secondary,
which has held only Oregon to less than 300 yards passing in Pac 10 play.
Explosive Bears coasted in a flat spot last week, and now their energy level is back to a
peak. CALIFORNIA 40-14.
Virginia Tech over Georgia Tech* by 6 (Thursday)
Each side enters this one off of a bye, but the Hokies also had only a 63-0 rout of
Florida A&M the previous week, so that means a level of freshness they have not
had since August. VIRGINIA TECH 23-17.
Boise State* over Hawaii by 24 (Friday)
Not an easy trip to make on a short week (plenty of stopovers), and given the way
that the Rainbows were whipped at U.T.E.P. and Rice already on the road this season
it becomes a long night for June Jones. BOISE STATE 41-17.
Miami-Fla. over North Carolina* by 22
Tar Heels badly needed a bye week to deal with some injury and off-field issue, but
at least that have some skill people that can attack a suddenly vulnerable Hurricane
defense. MIAMI F. 38-16.
Michigan* over Michigan State by 7
We have not wanted to buy into Drew Stanton’s numbers so far but perhaps he is
owed some respect here, especially with Michigan coming in off of that draining
win at Purdue while the Spartans are fresh off of a bye. MICHIGAN 27-20.
Ohio State* over Penn State by 6
With no offensive skill people for either side that can earn our trust, we have to sit
out a game that is more likely to be lost by a mistake, rather than won by someone
making a positive play. OHIO STATE 19-13.
Iowa over Illinois* by 9
Really tough for Ron Turner to decide whether to use his young QB’s to build for
a future that he is not guaranteed, or to go back to Jon Buetjer to try to save his
job. IOWA 26-17.
Minnesota over Indiana* by 19
Gophers regained their lost swagger last week, which spells bad news for a Hoosier
team that got out-rushed by 324 yards in this matchup LY. And fell by 48 on the
scoreboard, naturally. MINNESOTA 38-19.
West Virginia over Rutgers* by 18
After losing by counts of 80-7, 40-0 and 34-19 in his three meetings vs. the
Mountaineers so far, at least Gregg Schiano can claim that he is closing the gap. He
will notice no one in Rutgers scarlet smiling at that. WEST VIRGINIA 31-13.
CF *CLOSE CALLS
Wake Forest* over Duke by 21
After playing valiantly but coming up short against the upper echelons of the A.C.C.,
the Deacons finally get to face a pair of shades of blue that they can handle the next
two weeks. WAKE FOREST 38-17.
N. C. State over Clemson* by 6
Chuck Amato faces a motivational challenge here, after his Wolfpack first lost their
poise, and then their way, against Miami in prime time. N. C. STATE 23-17.
Missouri over Nebraska* by 4
The Tiger psyche may be a little bruised following that second half collapse at home
vs. Oklahoma State, but with the proper mindset they can actually enjoy a trip to
Lincoln for a change, with the Nebraska offense continuing to flounder vs. quality
defenses. MISSOURI 23-17.
Syracuse* over Connecticut by 6
First road game for the Huskies since September 17th, and only their second all season,
which makes the Carrier Dome even more of an advantage than usual.
Assuming, of course, that there are at least a few folks showing up dressed in Orange,
which is no longer a guarantee. SYRACUSE 27-21.
Oklahoma over Oklahoma State* by 11
Although Donovan Woods kept his poise at Missouri last week, the truth is that the
comeback win by the Cowboys was still paved more by their physical ground game.
There is no guarantee that they can make that part of their game work here. OKLAHOMA
27-16.
Kansas over Iowa State* by 9
Emerging talent gap between these two showing in a dominating 36-7 win in
Lawrence by the Jayhawks to close out last season, and the Iowa State statline from
Waco last week does not indicate that they have closed any of it. KANSAS 26-17.
Texas Tech over Kansas State* by 1
It has been a couple of seasons since Mike Leach and Bill Snyder have gone head-tohead,
but we remember well that Leach covered the spread in those two by a combined
59.5 points. Wildcat blitzing tactics not a good matchup for this offense.
TEXAS TECH 28-27.
Kentucky over Mississippi State* by 2
It is only natural that these Bulldogs suffer an emotional lapse after that brilliant performance
vs. Florida, while the Wildcats recognize that this is a rare chance for them
to win an S.E.C. game (and one of the few remaining for Rich Brooks). KENTUCKY
26-24.
Air Force over Wyoming* by 3
Although we have to respect the unblemished SU and ATS marks of these Cowboys
at home this season, we also have to weight the fact that Brigham Young and
Colorado State each just had their best rushing game of the season vs. this defense.
Never a good sign before facing Fisher DeBerry. AIR FORCE 26-23.
New Mexico over Colorado State* by 1
Caleb Hanie does not have nearly enough snaps under his belt to diagnose those
Lobo blitzes, especially with the usual Ram run support. NEW MEXICO 20-19.
Cincinnati* over T.C.U. by 8
Bearcats showed a renewed focus against Memphis following a needed bye week, and
that same energy level makes it easy against the hapless Horned Frog pass defense.
CINCINNATI 35-27.
Texas over Colorado* by 11
Returning Jason Klatt to the starting QB spot gave these Buffaloes a sense of offensive
direction last week, but Gary Barnett just does not have an antidote on the
defensive side of the ball. TEXAS 31-20.
Florida State over Maryland* by 15
Terrapin offense has reached the end zone once in the last three games, a meaningless
touchdown when trailing Georgia Tech 20-0 in the fourth quarter. No reason
why this defense allows the break-out. FLORIDA STATE 21-6.
Georgia over Florida by 11 (at Jacksonville)
Bulldogs actually dominated in the trenches (rushing was 202-89) but lost on the
scoreboard 16-13 in this one last year, but given the softness of that Gator defense
this time around, it is much easier for Mark Richt’s squad to turn their physical
advantages into points. GEORGIA 28-17.
Oregon* over Washington by 24
As bad as the Huskies have been, now they finally face someone that wants to take
out frustrations against them, with the Ducks remembering that 42-10 humbling of
last year. OREGON 34-10.
U.C.L.A.* over Stanford by 3
Not easy to do anything major with this until we learn more about the status of
Cardinal QB Trent Edwards later in the week. If he is able, a road upset becomes our
thought process. U.C.L.A. 24-21.
Kent State* over Ohio by 4
A case here of a bye week for the host carrying much added value, with the Bobcats
likely fatigued after having to face Marshall, Toledo and Bowling Green in succession.
KENT STATE 27-23.
Marshall* over Central Florida by 25
As easy as the win over Buffalo was on the scoreboard, that prideful Thundering
Herd defense allowed touchdowns on plays of 83 and 61 yards, which Bob Pruett
will remind them of all week. That keeps their focus on track an opponent that does
not inspire them in any way. MARSHALL 35-10.
Houston* over Tulane by 14
Lester Ricard somehow turned a disappointing effort into 417 yards passing and six
touchdown tosses vs. U.A.B., but whether or not his act will play on the road is
another matter. HOUSTON 38-24.
Northern Illinois over Ball State* by 18
Huskies have been allowing a lot of back door points in recent weeks, a sign either
of a lack of depth, or a lack of a concentration level. With next Saturday off, there is
not reason to not have the focus this week. NORTHERN ILLINOIS 35-17.
U.T.E.P. over San Jose State* by 19
Miners have now picked up five straight pointspread wins in double figures, a sign
that the oddsmakers are not even close to catching up to their improvements.
U.T.E.P. 36-17.
Bowling Green* over Eastern Michigan by 31
Hurons have held only Ball State to less than 31 points all season (and still gave up
24 points and 409 yards to the Cardinals), and most of those opponents were
nowhere near this class. BOWLING GREEN 52-21.
Oregon State over Arizona* by 10
These two appear to be heading in opposite directions right now, with the Beavers
finally finding some confidence, while the Wildcats are beginning to show signs of
wearing down. OREGON STATE 27-17.
Southern Cal over Washington State* by 27
The inexperienced Cougar QB’s are just being led to the slaughter. U.S.C. 34-7.
Rice over Tulsa* by 4
Off of back-to-back bitter defeats that have basically wrecked their season, we can not
expect the Golden Hurricanes to have the focus or determination to cope with the
Owl option for the full 60 minutes. RICE 28-24.
Texas A&M over Baylor* by 18
Bears are showing just enough real signs of life to hang around this one for a long
time, with the Aggies extremely distracted by the shadows of next week’s home game
vs. Oklahoma. TEXAS A&M 35-17.
L.S.U.* over Vanderbilt by 28
Off of that near-miss vs. Troy State, and with only another bye on deck. Nick Saban
will not tolerate anything less than a top effort here, against an opponent that rarely
has to face such. L.S.U. 41-13.
Fresno State* over S.M.U. by 22
Not easy for Pat Hill to find a new focus for a team that was whispering BCS a
month ago, and is now back to .500 with little reason to excite any bowl scouts. The
bottom line is that winning at Washington and Kansas State this season does not
mean all that much. FRESNO STATE 35-13.
Utah over San Diego State* by 21
With absolutely no depth at all in the OL, there are visible signs that the Aztec
offense is running low on fuel. Not the ideal matchup under those circumstances.
UTAH 37-16.
Middle Tennessee State* over Utah State by 12
Blue Raiders might have played their worst conference game ever vs. these Aggies LY,
trailing 35-0 in the fourth quarter of a 41-20 rout. Payback time. MIDDLE TENNESSEE
STATE 32-20.
Troy State* over Idaho by 17
Not the usual non-conference to conference transition, with the Trojans being close
enough to taste the upset at L.S.U. to suffer the hangover issues. TROY STATE 27-
10.
North Texas* over UL-Monroe by 13
They are doing it with offense this time, not defense, but the bottom line is that the
Mean Green continue to beat all comers in the Sun Belt. NO. TEXAS 30-17.
New Mexico State* over Florida International by 12
Tony Samuel gets a rare chance to face an opponent that does not see his option
schemes on a regular basis. NEW MEXICO STATE 31-19.
Toledo over Miami O.* by 3 (Tuesday)
Now that the Rocket defense has settled down as some young starters gain the necessary
experience, we will favor the steadier QB direction of Bruce Gradkowski to
pull this one out. TOLEDO 27-24.
U.A.B.* over South Florida by 13 (Wednesday)
Blazer defense gets its first chance to take out some frustrations since that ridiculous
collapse vs. Tulane, and the struggling Bulls might be just what the doctor ordered
for that unit to regain some confidence. U.A.B. 37-24.
