no formulas. I look at everything that a normal capper looks at. Where being played, injuries, fg%, defense, rebounding. I just know the game very well and these are my two picks. If you would like reasoning on either of the two and would like to hear my thought process I think I can get a few minutes aside to do some write-ups for ya. At work now and If I can find 10 minutes I will further explain
I'd be interested in your write-up on both games. I have the opposite of both of your picks - but my Phoenix spread is merely a lean. I have the over (202.5) in the Phoenix game and Spurs at 4.0 even if it is a back to back game on the road. Orlando can't hang with the Spurs on any court most nights, and it's national TV. Spurs only had to travel across the Gulf. My reasoning for the Phoenix lean is around these forums on various threads.
Orlando- One thing that has been huge for me over the years is the following. A good home team that outrebounds their opponent. It's as simple as that. Orlando is the better rebounding team and that is where this game is going to be won. Orlando scores more, they have almost identical FG and if you go deeper and look into the last 5 games Orlando is outplaying SanAntonio in almost every statistical category. Nelson is playing great as is Lewis. The only thing that scares me is the fact that Howard is questionable. I'm almost 100% sure he will play, but how healthy is he? He didn't start the last game and he is obviously a huge part of this Orlando team. Looks like he'll be playing though. Just like the way Orlando is playing also. 19-6 SU is 2 close games away from them being talked about with the likes of Boston , Cleveland and LA. Orlando is the better team IMO and I say they roll tonight for a million reasons
I think San Antonio plays down to their opponents when the team they are playing are widely recognized as crappy teams. If you are going by past five games I don't see how Orlando is outplaying San Antonio...
SA - ORL
Reb FG% PPG
SA: 50.8 46.2% 103.6
ORL: 46.6 47.2% 105.6
Both vs three top tier teams in the past five games (Orlando played Phoenix though and it was around the time of the trade and still lost), SA is a better defensive squad, better coach, and is just plain more seasoned than Orlando... Rebounds may have been higher vs Golden State with Howard but I mean... it's Golden State!
San Antonio is coming off a tough loss... who knows how that will affect them though. Could go both ways. They're probably pissed I think. They seemed mad last night. Orlando does have 3 days rest but who knows.
SA - ORL
Reb FG% PPG
SA: 50.8 46.2% 103.6
ORL: 46.6 47.2% 105.6
Both vs three top tier teams in the past five games (Orlando played Phoenix though and it was around the time of the trade and still lost), SA is a better defensive squad, better coach, and is just plain more seasoned than Orlando... Rebounds may have been higher vs Golden State with Howard but I mean... it's Golden State!
San Antonio is coming off a tough loss... who knows how that will affect them though. Could go both ways. They're probably pissed I think. They seemed mad last night. Orlando does have 3 days rest but who knows.
this is another reason Im backing the Magic tonight. Huge mental drain and physical drain on SA last night going into NO and getting beat. You will rarely see me going against San Antonio two nights in a row, but I do love the spot. That's a tough road trip. And as for the above stats showing SA rebounding slightly better the last 5, this is primarily because of Howards injury. With Howard, as of late, ORL is the better scoring team, better rebounding team, better shooting team and ARE at home...I don't know what else you would need to back them. Maybe throw in the fact that they are a game or two away from being considered with the likes of bos la and cle??? Well tonight is their chance...they play a top team in SA and can prove a lot by winning tonight
With you on the Magic tonight SA, as I posted it as a 3* on my thread as well. Another thing to support this pick is the 1-4 ATS record that Spurs have off a game the night before. This makes logical sense to me, as this Spurs team had some older players who might not respond as well with little rest. This becomes a very tough two game stretch for them.
