Series price vs probability

[NumberFreak]

Right before Game 2, I plunked down a healthy wager on the Wings' series price of -206 because home teams that win Game 1 are 43-6 (88%) to win the series. The -206 was nothing even close to the 88% expectancy (which would be closer to -800).

Why am I posting this now? Because now teams up 2-0 in the Finals heading on the road are 32-1 (97%) to win the Cup and the series price is still not going to be anywhere near those odds. Obviously, it should be closer to -3200 but I'm expecting -400 or so (1/8).

 

[TheRocker]

-450? Try -800, at least.

 

[NumberFreak]

-450? Try -800, at least.

You think the Wings will be -800? Tell you what, I'll give you -600 right now.

 

[Pish Posh]

you both were way off lol

 

[DA_MOSS]

you both were way off lol

"Obviously, it should be closer to -3200 but I'm expecting -400 or so (1/8)."

They are -450... I wouldnt call that way off

 

[TheSaint]

pounded it way before, nice to read this stuff..NF you really are a Freak lol.

 

[NumberFreak]

"Obviously, it should be closer to -3200 but I'm expecting -400 or so (1/8)."

They are -450... I wouldnt call that way off

LOL, and I actually had -450 at first and lowered it as you can tell from Rocker's response. Either way, I wasn't going to touch the series figuring Pittsburgh was dangerous (and they still are) but I was a bit surprised that Finals teams are 43-6 after just winning Game 1 at home.

 

[TheRocker]

-437 at Pinnacle now. I'm shocked. I stand corrected.

 

[crazyivan]

"In the history of best-of-7 NHL Finals series from 1939 through 2008, teams winning Games 1-2 have a 41-3 series record, while teams winning Games 1-2 at home have a 31-1 series record."