Criciuma vs Boa Esporte under 2.75 -120 3units
Already stated several times, that all soccer fields in SC are in really bad shape because it has pretty much rained nonstop. Heavy rain in Criciuma on Friday, some more rain on Saturday, the league match vs Botafoga, more rain on Sunday, sunny and dry for a change yesterday and some more showers expected later this afternoon. The surface will be bumpy and hard to play on.
Criciuma needs points to avoid relegation, Boa Esporte is already relegated, so their season is pretty much over. Criciuma will play for the win for sure, but in case this game is tied late, they don't need to get desperate but could live with 1pt because with 4 games left they are already 4pts ahead of Ceara & Macae and Macae is playing terrible. Plus Ceara & Macae play each other in the final match, so worst case both teams score 10pts from here on out, far more probable though that not both of them even get to 6pts (=win twice in 4 games)....
Criciuma has scored 30 goals in 34 matches (2nd worst offense, 18 goals in 17 home games), Boa Esporte is the only team with less goals scored (28). Under their new coach CRI beat Ceara 3-0, then lost 0-1 and 0-2 on the road before beating Botafogo 1-0 last Saturday. He is using a far more defensive approach and even though they gave up scoring opportunities to Ceara & Bota, they kept a clean sheet in both home games. The 3-0 score vs Ceara is also very deceptive because the first score was a shot from 25m out that got deflected by another player at the box. The 2nd goal was a penalty and the 3rd goal came when Ceara was already a man down. So 2/3 goals weren't scored because CRI was able to create but just by pure luck/chance. In the other 3 games since the coaching change they scored a total of 1 goal only.
CRI also dismissed about 10-12 players when they changed their coach, ever since the talent level, especially the offensive part of the roster simply lacks talent. Boa Esporte also dismissed some players, primarily their two regular strikers & their playmaker. In the 1st game without them they lost 0-2 @Luverdense, without creating much offense.
Boa Esporte officially has no chance to stay in Serie B anymore, but last week their chances were already pretty much gone and they still showed a decent effort, so no indication that they packed it in already. Also makes sense because the remaining players will try to showcase for new contracts...
In my opinion oddsmakers overreacted here to Boas recent results: 6 of their last 7 and 8 out of 10 went over 2.5. But both games, where they didn't score themselves, went under. 5 of those 8 over-games ended with a 1-2 defeat. CRI has a decent defense, Boa without their 3 best offensive players did nothing offensively in their last match and the playing conditions all indicate that they might end up scoreless again here.
Plus almost all those opponents that scored twice vs them have scored a total in the range of 40-50 goals so far this year, while Criciuma stands at a mere 30. Add in the fact that CRI only managed to score more than once in a game a single time in their last 11(! ...the above mentioned 3-0 vs Ceara) and you can see, that this game doesn't really look like your typical over match.
CRB -0.5 (vs Parana) +109 2units
Not sure why odds went up here, but I guess it's just because the market overrates the motivational part of this game: CRB isn't playing for anything but to finish as high as possible. No chance to be promoted but also safe & sound already and no more risk to be relegated, while Parana needs some points to officially avoid relegation. But the same applied to CRBs home game last Saturday vs Goias (right next to Parana in the standings) and CRB beat them 4-1.
CRB 11-3-3 at home, 5-1-1 at home in the 2nd half of the season and those 7 recent matches included the top4 of the standings (went 3-1-0 against them). Parana is one of the worst road teams, so not sure why CRB gets plus odds here.
Parana will also be missing one of their centre backs plus their coach and last Saturday @Recife vs Nautico were overwhelmed by Nauticos pressure early on, defending nonstop. And when Nautico went up by 2 and set back because of their lead, Parana still wasn't able to create a single scoring opportunity.
CRB also didn't have to travel, could take Sunday off and practice on Monday while Parana had to make the (rather short) trip from Recife to Maceio. So preparation advantage for CRB and the climate up North with 30+ degrees and such will also play in favor of the host.
Oeste +1.25 (@Santa Cruz) -105 3units
under 2.5 +102 1unit
Oeste has one of the most defensive minded approaches of all Serie B teams. In the 2nd half of this season they conceded more than 1goal only once vs America Mineiro (currently in 2nd place) and that 2nd goal came in the final minute via penalty (still lost by only one since the game ended 2-1). Over that stretch that was also their only road loss, they tied in all their other 6 games away from Sao Paulo, games which incl. the current top3 of the rankings and Sampaio Correa, another strong home team.
During 15 games in the 2nd half of the season they conceded 2 or more goals just twice, aforementioned game @America Mineiro and a bad 1-2 home loss vs Macae, so even in those matches they covered +1.25. Plus they scored in 12 of those 15 matches.
Santa Cruz fields a very strong offensive, incl. Grafite who won the trophy for best scorer in Germanys Bundesliga a few years ago. But still they managed to score more than twice in a game just twice over their last 15 games (=2nd half of the season), while scoring twice 7/15 and keeping a clean sheet in 5/15.
If Santa Cruz scored in this game, I also expect them to switch their approach and sit back: First tiebreaker for the rankings is the number of games won, only after that goal difference would come into play. But they already have a 4 and 10 goal advantage vs their opposition, so goal difference is of little importance. On the other hand Oeste has trouble creating opportunities vs opponents who sit back, being the active side isn't their strong suit and they are far more dangerous when given space to counter attack. So once Santa Cruz is up, I expect them to take that into mind and sit back more. Especially since they recently went up 1-0 vs Nautico and ended up losing 1-3. So the game after that vs Criciuma they already were far more hesitant and sitting back after going up 1-0 and even more so after scoring the 2nd goal. But Criciuma is far inferior to Oeste, especially away from home.
Santa Cruz also hasn't paid salaries in time for a couple of weeks, but unlike last year, when the team temporarily went on strike and didn't suit up for practice sessions, this years squad doesn't seem to be affected by this.
Both teams had to travel because Santa Cruz played away from home @Bahia, so there is no prep advantage, but still Santa strong home record, 13-1-3 (6-0-2 2nd half of the season).
Nautico +0.25 -135 3units
Nautico +0 +104 1unit
Nautico fighting for promotion, Macae trying desperately to avoid relegation. Wrote about Macae last weekend, will be missing their goalkeeper, but the young backup played great last Saturday after the starter/regular got sent off. Their experienced striker will be back, but still just don't see them winning here...Team is just not good enough, lacking talent. Vs Vitoria they gave up a shitload of great scoring opportunities and could easily have conceded 4, 5 or 6 instead of just 2 goals. Also seems like their conditioning isn't up to league standards, team seems tired late in games, training facilities and such aren't at the same level etc. They started out surprisingly strong, but since then have gone 3-6-10. Now they dismissed their coach on Saturday, again, but I doubt that this creates a positive effect because what can he do within 2 days?
2 of their 3 wins came vs two other teams who will be relegated. Nautico on the other hand is playing really well since their coaching change, 6-1-3 and if take away the first two matches under the new coach, they are even 6-0-2 over their last 8 matches. 2 of their 3 losses came vs the top2 teams, while they won their last two matches away from home vs the 3rd and 4th ranked teams. They can pressure opponents, have scored regularly but at the same time have a solid defense, esp. once they are up and sit back.
Paysandu -0.75 -140 3units
Paysandu -1 -105 1unit
Paysandu needs the win to keep their promotion hopes alive (they are currently 3pts behind Santa Cruz). In my opinion they are just an above average team, but that should be plenty good enough vs Mogi Mirim: Dead last, lost their last 10 and the current roster, after having dismissed 11 players last week and two more this week (incl. their captain), is laughable and not even close to Serie B standards. Conceded 3 goals last week @Luverdense, could have been worse than 1-3 and will be without two more regulars this time around. Also not sure what to expect from their keeper: He signed a contract with another team from SP, but Mogi Mirim isn't willing to let him go since he's still under contract until Dec 2016. So not 100% sure if he will suit up and if he does, how he will react to this situation.
Already stated several times, that all soccer fields in SC are in really bad shape because it has pretty much rained nonstop. Heavy rain in Criciuma on Friday, some more rain on Saturday, the league match vs Botafoga, more rain on Sunday, sunny and dry for a change yesterday and some more showers expected later this afternoon. The surface will be bumpy and hard to play on.
Criciuma needs points to avoid relegation, Boa Esporte is already relegated, so their season is pretty much over. Criciuma will play for the win for sure, but in case this game is tied late, they don't need to get desperate but could live with 1pt because with 4 games left they are already 4pts ahead of Ceara & Macae and Macae is playing terrible. Plus Ceara & Macae play each other in the final match, so worst case both teams score 10pts from here on out, far more probable though that not both of them even get to 6pts (=win twice in 4 games)....
Criciuma has scored 30 goals in 34 matches (2nd worst offense, 18 goals in 17 home games), Boa Esporte is the only team with less goals scored (28). Under their new coach CRI beat Ceara 3-0, then lost 0-1 and 0-2 on the road before beating Botafogo 1-0 last Saturday. He is using a far more defensive approach and even though they gave up scoring opportunities to Ceara & Bota, they kept a clean sheet in both home games. The 3-0 score vs Ceara is also very deceptive because the first score was a shot from 25m out that got deflected by another player at the box. The 2nd goal was a penalty and the 3rd goal came when Ceara was already a man down. So 2/3 goals weren't scored because CRI was able to create but just by pure luck/chance. In the other 3 games since the coaching change they scored a total of 1 goal only.
CRI also dismissed about 10-12 players when they changed their coach, ever since the talent level, especially the offensive part of the roster simply lacks talent. Boa Esporte also dismissed some players, primarily their two regular strikers & their playmaker. In the 1st game without them they lost 0-2 @Luverdense, without creating much offense.
Boa Esporte officially has no chance to stay in Serie B anymore, but last week their chances were already pretty much gone and they still showed a decent effort, so no indication that they packed it in already. Also makes sense because the remaining players will try to showcase for new contracts...
In my opinion oddsmakers overreacted here to Boas recent results: 6 of their last 7 and 8 out of 10 went over 2.5. But both games, where they didn't score themselves, went under. 5 of those 8 over-games ended with a 1-2 defeat. CRI has a decent defense, Boa without their 3 best offensive players did nothing offensively in their last match and the playing conditions all indicate that they might end up scoreless again here.
Plus almost all those opponents that scored twice vs them have scored a total in the range of 40-50 goals so far this year, while Criciuma stands at a mere 30. Add in the fact that CRI only managed to score more than once in a game a single time in their last 11(! ...the above mentioned 3-0 vs Ceara) and you can see, that this game doesn't really look like your typical over match.
CRB -0.5 (vs Parana) +109 2units
Not sure why odds went up here, but I guess it's just because the market overrates the motivational part of this game: CRB isn't playing for anything but to finish as high as possible. No chance to be promoted but also safe & sound already and no more risk to be relegated, while Parana needs some points to officially avoid relegation. But the same applied to CRBs home game last Saturday vs Goias (right next to Parana in the standings) and CRB beat them 4-1.
CRB 11-3-3 at home, 5-1-1 at home in the 2nd half of the season and those 7 recent matches included the top4 of the standings (went 3-1-0 against them). Parana is one of the worst road teams, so not sure why CRB gets plus odds here.
Parana will also be missing one of their centre backs plus their coach and last Saturday @Recife vs Nautico were overwhelmed by Nauticos pressure early on, defending nonstop. And when Nautico went up by 2 and set back because of their lead, Parana still wasn't able to create a single scoring opportunity.
CRB also didn't have to travel, could take Sunday off and practice on Monday while Parana had to make the (rather short) trip from Recife to Maceio. So preparation advantage for CRB and the climate up North with 30+ degrees and such will also play in favor of the host.
Oeste +1.25 (@Santa Cruz) -105 3units
under 2.5 +102 1unit
Oeste has one of the most defensive minded approaches of all Serie B teams. In the 2nd half of this season they conceded more than 1goal only once vs America Mineiro (currently in 2nd place) and that 2nd goal came in the final minute via penalty (still lost by only one since the game ended 2-1). Over that stretch that was also their only road loss, they tied in all their other 6 games away from Sao Paulo, games which incl. the current top3 of the rankings and Sampaio Correa, another strong home team.
During 15 games in the 2nd half of the season they conceded 2 or more goals just twice, aforementioned game @America Mineiro and a bad 1-2 home loss vs Macae, so even in those matches they covered +1.25. Plus they scored in 12 of those 15 matches.
Santa Cruz fields a very strong offensive, incl. Grafite who won the trophy for best scorer in Germanys Bundesliga a few years ago. But still they managed to score more than twice in a game just twice over their last 15 games (=2nd half of the season), while scoring twice 7/15 and keeping a clean sheet in 5/15.
If Santa Cruz scored in this game, I also expect them to switch their approach and sit back: First tiebreaker for the rankings is the number of games won, only after that goal difference would come into play. But they already have a 4 and 10 goal advantage vs their opposition, so goal difference is of little importance. On the other hand Oeste has trouble creating opportunities vs opponents who sit back, being the active side isn't their strong suit and they are far more dangerous when given space to counter attack. So once Santa Cruz is up, I expect them to take that into mind and sit back more. Especially since they recently went up 1-0 vs Nautico and ended up losing 1-3. So the game after that vs Criciuma they already were far more hesitant and sitting back after going up 1-0 and even more so after scoring the 2nd goal. But Criciuma is far inferior to Oeste, especially away from home.
Santa Cruz also hasn't paid salaries in time for a couple of weeks, but unlike last year, when the team temporarily went on strike and didn't suit up for practice sessions, this years squad doesn't seem to be affected by this.
Both teams had to travel because Santa Cruz played away from home @Bahia, so there is no prep advantage, but still Santa strong home record, 13-1-3 (6-0-2 2nd half of the season).
Nautico +0.25 -135 3units
Nautico +0 +104 1unit
Nautico fighting for promotion, Macae trying desperately to avoid relegation. Wrote about Macae last weekend, will be missing their goalkeeper, but the young backup played great last Saturday after the starter/regular got sent off. Their experienced striker will be back, but still just don't see them winning here...Team is just not good enough, lacking talent. Vs Vitoria they gave up a shitload of great scoring opportunities and could easily have conceded 4, 5 or 6 instead of just 2 goals. Also seems like their conditioning isn't up to league standards, team seems tired late in games, training facilities and such aren't at the same level etc. They started out surprisingly strong, but since then have gone 3-6-10. Now they dismissed their coach on Saturday, again, but I doubt that this creates a positive effect because what can he do within 2 days?
2 of their 3 wins came vs two other teams who will be relegated. Nautico on the other hand is playing really well since their coaching change, 6-1-3 and if take away the first two matches under the new coach, they are even 6-0-2 over their last 8 matches. 2 of their 3 losses came vs the top2 teams, while they won their last two matches away from home vs the 3rd and 4th ranked teams. They can pressure opponents, have scored regularly but at the same time have a solid defense, esp. once they are up and sit back.
Paysandu -0.75 -140 3units
Paysandu -1 -105 1unit
Paysandu needs the win to keep their promotion hopes alive (they are currently 3pts behind Santa Cruz). In my opinion they are just an above average team, but that should be plenty good enough vs Mogi Mirim: Dead last, lost their last 10 and the current roster, after having dismissed 11 players last week and two more this week (incl. their captain), is laughable and not even close to Serie B standards. Conceded 3 goals last week @Luverdense, could have been worse than 1-3 and will be without two more regulars this time around. Also not sure what to expect from their keeper: He signed a contract with another team from SP, but Mogi Mirim isn't willing to let him go since he's still under contract until Dec 2016. So not 100% sure if he will suit up and if he does, how he will react to this situation.
