Serena Williams Versus Maria Sharapova - 9:30 P.M. EST ESPN2 - Opinions?

[jjgold]

good strategy Willy

I am trying with with Maria

 

[peskypup]

tennis rules

Glaken, what you've said applies only to outright betting on who wins the title. In fact for individual matches you can choose from the fullest possible range of options:

1. Play started with Carib, Expekt, sportsbook etc. - once a ball is served you have a live bet.

2. First set complete - Stan James & many UK books

3. 2 sets complete - Oly

4. Entire match complete - Pinny, Cris etc.

So in today's match Roddick v Davydenko where Davy retired at 0-2 and 1-4, you have a void bet with Pinny & Cris but everyone else would have paid up on Roddick or taken your money on Davydenko.

I am not as good on womens' tennis as mens. But I find it hard to believe that +200 with sportsbook.com on Maria does not represent value. Risk factors:

1. Heat exhaustion - but as the youngest semi-finalist she can be expected to cope okay and recover more quickly from her last match.

2. Williams has shown better form in this event so far.

However, Williams had shown much better form in Wimbledon 04 but the first time she came up against someone who thought she was going to beat her was in the Final & it all went wrong for her. The process was repeated - albeit Williams was not fully fit - in the female equivalent of the Masters Cup later in 04.

I believe Sharapova has a psychological edge over Williams until such time as Williams proves otherwise.

 

[peskypup]

risky

I personally think the outright bets are still risky. I would not be surprised to see a long match between Williams and Sharapova followed by 6-2 6-2 or similar in Davenport Dechy.

If Sharapova were to win, she would then have had back to back tough matches in the heat of the day, mentally & physically draining. Physically at 17 you would think this would be okay but mentally I am not so sure. One thing is for sure though - if there was any weakness arising from this, Davenport has the experience and savvy to spot this and exploit it.

 

[Glaken]

Glaken:

My current lean would be to Sharapova but like Wil pointed out, most likely, the winner of this match wins the tournament at much better odds and have to agree with him that if you think Williams wins tonight, a better play is to take her to win the tournament rather then lay -203 tonight.

Yes I sorta agree with you, I want to see how Serena responds after the press conference. If it comes down to Serena and Davenport in the final I will fade the match because Davenport is the Pete Sampras of the WTA. The future wager is a good bet on Williams although I wouldn't bet my car payment on it.

I just don't see Serena Williams losing this match....both world class players and experience combinded with an attitude should pull Serena through. I expect Serena to win more than one Major this year..thats my 2....We'll see at 1 AM. GL, G

 

[Avalanche88]

Sharapova is a major hottie....i'll watch that match just because of her

Too skinny!!!

 

[Glaken]

Glaken, what you've said applies only to outright betting on who wins the title. In fact for individual matches you can choose from the fullest possible range of options:

1. Play started with Carib, Expekt, sportsbook etc. - once a ball is served you have a live bet.

2. First set complete - Stan James & many UK books

3. 2 sets complete - Oly

4. Entire match complete - Pinny, Cris etc.

So in today's match Roddick v Davydenko where Davy retired at 0-2 and 1-4, you have a void bet with Pinny & Cris but everyone else would have paid up on Roddick or taken your money on Davydenko.

I am not as good on womens' tennis as mens. But I find it hard to believe that +200 with sportsbook.com on Maria does not represent value. Risk factors:

1. Heat exhaustion - but as the youngest semi-finalist she can be expected to cope okay and recover more quickly from her last match.

2. Williams has shown better form in this event so far.

However, Williams had shown much better form in Wimbledon 04 but the first time she came up against someone who thought she was going to beat her was in the Final & it all went wrong for her. The process was repeated - albeit Williams was not fully fit - in the female equivalent of the Masters Cup later in 04.

I believe Sharapova has a psychological edge over Williams until such time as Williams proves otherwise.

Yes Pesky you are right, The last time I bet Live Tennis betting I got burned by Venus with her abdominal strain (Why go up 4-1 and then tank the match?)
You will never see Venus in a final again unless its a satellite tourny....anyway we both know the game; we'll discuss later in the Global room. Good Luck, G.

 

[OccamsRazor]

According to the paper yesterday, Serena wants to avenge her loss at Wimbeldon. Serena added that the loss was due to severe nerves, a condition she has under control now. Tough to go against a player/team looking to avenge specially if that player/team is arguably the better.

 

[Glaken]

According to the paper yesterday, Serena wants to avenge her loss at Wimbeldon. Serena added that the loss was due to severe nerves, a condition she has under control now. Tough to go against a player/team looking to avenge specially if that player/team is arguably the better.

Occams Razor..now there is a phrase I haven't heard since college.....


If I recall it was the Philosipher William of Okham that said "don't make more assumptions than the minimum needed." This is good advice in gambling and girls; he was also called the Prince of Parsimony. (which ryhmes with matrimony)

GL, G

 

[red007]

i think serena wins this. i can't see her losing 3 straight to maria.
then serena will take care of davenport in the finals imo.

 

[Col.Forbin]

I jumped on Serena yesterday. She is back on form and seems determined to win the aussie. She wants revenge in this match and I don't see her losing her 3rd straight to Sharapova.

 

[earl]

line at pinnacle from -180 to -210. im surprised the line is that high. i take maria just for the line value and the fact she is such a hottie that i cant get enough of.

 

[peskypup]

mmm

there are various reasons to consider a bet on Williams. But "Williams wants revenge" is not one of them, in fact I consider it a reason to back Sharapova if indeed it is a factor at all.

First off, Williams had a better opportunity for revenge in the USA last year and went down convincingly. Second, anyone out there at this stage who does not want to win massively should not be there. For me, Sharapove is the most motivated and focussed lady tennis player right now and both Williams sisters have been affected by injury and the "David Beckham" factor of believing their own publicity machine.

Mens top tennis currrently is littered with H2H records of the 8-1, 9-1 variety and not all Federer - field either. Some players simply find that their own natural game plays into the hands of their opponent's natural game. This means that they then need to improvise on the court and most struggle with this.

It seems at least possible to me that Sharapova Williams could develop like this, and at +200 I don't really need all that much in my favour to have a bet. Whereas at -200 I would want a lot fewer risk factors than I see on the Williams side right now.

 

[TANG]

wow this match is done sharapova is blowing her out.

 

[bucsfan67]

line at pinnacle from -180 to -210. im surprised the line is that high. i take maria just for the line value and the fact she is such a hottie that i cant get enough of.

Im with you Earl.....I follow tennis enough to know who everyone is, and who is good, but dont usually bet on it, or really handicap it..

I couldnt resist the +185 on Sharapova, especially considering she is the higher seed...

The Williams' sisters are a litte like Duke, NC, Spurs, Seminoles, Notre Dame, etc....People like betting on them, so you are always "paying" a little more with the line for the name......

And while I think Serena is the best player in the game right now, she is alot like Phoenix Suns, when she is hot, she will tear you up, but she can look real bad if she gets off her game, or starts to struggle......

So far, luckily, she is struggling.....And according to the announcers, getting heckled by Sharapova's father....gotta love it....

M-a-r-i-a, M-a-r-i-a!!!!!

 

[Glaken]

wow this match is done sharapova is blowing her out.

You will see a third set Tang......Its the ole Ken Roswald I'm dead and can't play anymore game.

 

[WorldNumberOne]

if you could put serena's cans on sharapova then you would really have a match worth watching..

 

[OKSOONER]

Sharapova is a major hottie....i'll watch that match just because of her

She's O.K but I would drink Serena's Bath water!!!
She is a Sex Goddess!!!

 

[TANG]

serena's ass is bigger than mine and i tip the scales at over 200.

 

[Glaken]

If i'm out of the country I prefer Bottled water or Heineken....But baby got back for sure. LOL..

 

[TANG]

they tried to screw serena out of the second set