Self-discipline

[bblight]

As I prepare for the start of the 2003 NFL wagering season, I'm reviewing my new "war room" and how well I have it organized - and I feel really great -
I have a place for everything, and everything is in it's place:
My stat files are all ready to go.
I've reviewed all of my FB trends and systems - checked them against the last few years to make sure they still work, and I've set them up to be reviewed and updated at the start of each week. A fews tweeks are required - but they're ready
I have any remaining preparatory work stacked in neat little piles on my desk- ready to be worked on and organized.
I'm looking at last years notes and files to make sure all of my snafu's have been recognized and covered - oops - there's that same damned screw-up I make every year - losing control due to many factors - the major cause being a FAT HEAD and a lack of SELF-DISCIPLINE!!!!!
I print out a sign for myself as a reminder "lack of discipline loses games" and I post it right above my monitor where I can learn to ignore it.
I think about getting one of those Wile Coyote "boot up ass" machines (where I pull a string, and a boot on a lever comes up and kicks me in the ass); a good idea - but I don't know where to get one of those machines.
I consider forcing self-discipline on myself - but I kinda like that feeling of omnipitence, that mental orgasm that I have as I lead myself into handicapping destruction.
I'm starting to feel kinda worried - all of those hours - hundreds of them - could go down the drain because I'm a moron - what can I do to get some self-discipline?

I need help! Does anyone have any suggestions?

Thanks, and

Good luck!

 

[exilarch]

A daily affirmation would be in order.Repeat the Mantra every day:"I will be disciplined in my endeavour", or some such words.

 

[SaintJoe57]

I think everyone has that problem to a certain degree. If you will watch everyone & I mean everyone here will chase sooner or later. Now to what extent they chase does vary but everyone at some point chases. I have taken breaks because sometimes the capping will drive you insane. When you start to trying to out think yourself, its time for a break. Besides, not only am I a recreational gamble, I'm a fan as well. Thats what I don't get about people that bet mulitudes of games every week. You can't enjoy a game worried about the score. That is one reason I don't bet against the team I love & know best the Saints. Now occasionally I do bet against LSU, but never the Saints. It helps me to play only a few games each week, as opposed to many. I think the smart cappers out there are the guys that only play a few games each week.

 

[BigLou+]

The key to success is persistence. Those many hours of hard work that you talked about will not go down the drain as long as you are persistent.

Most of the time when I'm doing research I have a subject in mind and I know what I'm looking for. But once in a while, when I don't have anything specific to research, I'll just pick up a file and start perusing through it or toss in a game tape and start watching it. It's amazing how many times I have found something without really looking for it in the first place.

Persistence. It pays off.

Big Lou

 

[BigLou+]

I did not have a great year last season and didn't chase. The only time I raise my wagers is in the playoffs because I have a lot of confidence after doing well in the post-season for many many years. I usually layoff the Sunday and Monday Night games unless I really like a side. If you have a bad day you have to take it like a man and move on. No sense in turning a bad day into a nightmare.

Big Lou

 

[SaintJoe57]

If you didn't chase in some way then you are the only one. Your overall record of 38-36 (if I'm right) could have worked out to be a tidy sum if you had wagered correctly. If you play the same amount of $ every time you are stuck with minimal profit even with a good vs the spread winning percentage! Its all about money management. Funny thing about that is, it's so easy to say, but damn if it aint hard to pull off. LOL

 

[SixthSense]

bblight - Self-discipline is much easier after you have done it. When you can go through a whole season using self-discipline, you will see the rewards and it will become much easier.

Last year, I got off to a rocky start in the NFL. I was around 25-28 and down about 20%. But I've done enough research to stick to my methodology. And it paid off, as I won 67% of my bets from about week 11 through the SB. And I finished at 65-49 57% and up about 32% of my bankroll.

When you stuck to your guns and been rewarded like that, it becomes much easier to use self-discipline. Being ready and having done great research leads to self-discipline.

That same money management book you talked about earlier has a great line it.

If you have an edge, you will never lose over the long haul.
If you don't have an edge, you will never win over the long haul.

Once you achieve that edge, you can bet with confidence.

St. Joes - The only problem with betting a lot of games is if you are a 50% handicapper, then will eventually return back to 50%, no matter how well you are doing.

But, if your methodology returns you 55% yearly, on a certain volume, then there is nothing wrong with playing a lot of games. As long as the volume is within your methodology, there is nothing wrong with playing a lot of games.

And, I must respectfully disagree with your money management theory. Flat betting is the way to go. I have done numerous studies on it and it is very hard to make money by rating all of your plays. If your plays are only rated 2 and 3 percent or 3 and 4 percent, then that is fine. But, if you are rating your plays from 1 percent to 5 percent, you might as well only bet the 4 and 5 percent plays because those are the only plays that will make your bankroll at the end of the year.

Good thread bblight! Good luck this year.

 

[DENIRO]

if you are a good capper you have to say to yourselve

i lost 3 or 4 in arow and i can win 3 and 4 in a row

sixth is right, flatbetting is the only way

 

[oilman]

I've been wagering for 13 years, I have tried all sorts of money management theories, but the only one that works for me is flat betting. For me, it is too emotionally challenging to wager different amounts on this game and that game. I used to get so down after going 5-2 for the day only lose money. I would be pissed for days, second guessing my selections and then ultimately chasing, which would have me back in the red in no time.

Now, every bet is for the same unit amount and yes there are times that there is 1 game that I would love to hammer, but now when those games lose I can have a little laugh and remember when that game would have sent me into tilt mode and I'd be broke in no time.

I am sure there are guys out there with so much ice in their blood that they can move on in an instant off losses like that, but I'm not one of them, so flat betting is the way I go.

 

[DENIRO]

BETTING DRASTIC INCREMENTS LIKE 50$ FOR 1 BET AND $350 FOR ANOTHER BET ENCOURAGES AND ENTICES YOU TO CHASE.

 

[jwunderdog]

I think flat betting is the best way to bet and I am talking about the same amount every game the entire season, however I do not flat bet in College Football.I use a total non emotional system that the #'s tell me what % to bet, but unless you can take your emotion and thoughts(very easy to say,very tough to do) out of your handicapping I think flat betting is best.

 

[winbet]

As I have said on other threads, if you cannot make it pay at level steaks your are only kidding yourself. However, once you are convinced that this is the case there is nothing wrong with having a strategy that takes in your opinion.
Simplicity is the key, get rid of time consuming work that is not needed. The trouble is after hours of study on a game, it is hard not to have a bet.
I only bet on the exchanges, because of the volatility I have to be extra careful. I start every week sifting out the games that look promising and highlight the reasons I have picked them. These games or game will be a maximum bet. As the week unfolds, any negative events against what I highlighted reduces my stake, in some instants no bet at all. Come Sunday I am happy with my stake, win or lose. The only time I differ from this, is if I have a big win, then I will increase my stakes in case I hit a winning run.

 

[dimeplayersonly]

self-discipline at sports gambling...............IMO you either have it or dont....

but there are ways you can get a grip on it....

1. dont watch the games...if game film is instrumental in your handicapping...tape them.
2. dont get into the pattern of feeling that you "have to bet"
3. develope a plan and stick to it
4. keep a close eye on your figure throughout the day
5. never drink while gambling
6. treat betting like a job.....ie. work station with no distractions
7. dont let other people influence your decisions

how many times have you selected say........5 games to bet all of equal units and your 2-2 with one game to go and you double up on it because "you feel good about it"
most bettors are guilty of this or some variance..

the problem that most gamblers have is that they are "greedy" they want to hit the big lick.......that attitude will leave you with a negative bankroll.......

in order to last in this business you have to "live to fight another day"

 

[dimeplayersonly]

forgot one important element...have a constructive outlet to release tension.......ie. hobby, working out, something that is healthy.......

keeping a level head is important

 

[BigLou+]

Really agree with sticking to your plan. I would love to start wagering on some of the pre-season games but that's not part of my plan for 2003, even though I'm itching to start wagering on football. Exhibition games are not my thing so I have learned to layoff.

Big Lou

 

[bblight]

Dimeplayers -
Damned good advice - All of your hard work can go down the drain when you let greed or doubt take the reigns.
Those are 8 great commandments for a sports bettor to live by - Thanks for the wise advice, and

Good luck!

 

[TheGeneral+]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> 2. dont get into the pattern of feeling that you "have to bet" <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>


Addiction hurts the bankroll.

 

[bblight]

Hey guys, thanks for all of the input. With Dimeplayers post, and input from all of you, I've developed the following list of do's and don't's:


Do's:
1. Do practice good money management - This is the "Golden Rule" of wagering.
2. Do practice good money management - it's so important it has to be mentioned again!
3. Do develop a plan (And stick to it!!!)
4. Do watch your wagers closely.
5. Do keep good records
6. Do keep and maintain several "outs" for the best line and line choices.
7. Do treat handicapping as a job; keep a neat and clean work area, good records and files, etc..
8. Be persistent. Failure will happen! Don't let it get you down! Make whatever adjustments are necessary and get on with it, Plan for "down" times when developing your plan. Read and follow the "Don'ts".+
9. Find and practice another hobby. It's good to get away and remember what is really important to your life! (I like Nintendo types of games (Metroids, Mario, Zelda) and have every Saturday night out with the boss, er, um, I mean the wife!

Don't
1. Don't get Greedy! Greed is the greatest bankroll destroyer there is! Stay true and resolute to your plan.
2. Don't get into a pattern of feeling that you have to bet. "Having to bet" is like and addiction; addiction hurts the bankroll.
3. Don't let others influence your decisions (how many times have you lost a bet because you changed your mind due to some outside influence; be resol;ute to your plan.
4. Don't drink and wager- do one or the other! Drinking leads to bad decisions; bad decisions leads to loss of bankroll.
5. Don't watch the games and hang onto every fluctuation in the scores - that's a roller coaster ride to no where; you've made your decision and your wager - the outcome won't change, so relax and enjoy yourself- go do your hobby.


What do you think?

 

[lander]

I have a don't -

Do NOT bet a game because it's on TV, just cause you're watching doesn't mean they'll play any better

 

[bblight]

Good idea Lander - 've added it to the list of don't's