Sekrah NCAAF Week 5

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Our First Impressions/Leans went 9-4 last week. Did slightly worse on actually posted/confirmed plays, but overall another very good weekend for those who followed the great one. :drink:

Here's this week's ideas.



Hawaii +3.5 at Louisiana Tech - Bulldogs' offense looks particularly lame after the defenses of Navy and Auburn were exposed. Hawaii has strong edge in the QB dept/passing game with Greg Alexander.

Colorado +17.5 at West Virginia - Buffs starting to figure it out. Both teams coming off bye weeks, Those 17 points look juicy.

Pittsburgh -6.5 at Louisville - Pitt QB Situation far more stable and have a quick strike offense, and stingy rush D. Should control the line on both sides of the ball.

Michigan St. pk vs Michigan - David Molk is a major loss for the Wolverines and they are going to feel it in this game. Michigan St.'s D-line is far superior to Indiana's and they are going to be on Forcier all day long.

Syracuse +7 vs South Florida - South Florida plays a perfect game with their backup QB at home to upset the Seminoles and now go on the road against an upstart Orange? Trouble for the Bulls in this spot.

East Carolina -2.5 at Marshall - I am just waiting for the Pirates to explode. They are due to have an easy win, this may be it. They are too good, too experienced to keep down forever. Marshall is getting a little ahead of themselves with their pair of wins over Memphis and Bowling Green.

Toledo/Ball St. Over ??? - Looking for something in the mid 50s range to pounce on.

Purdue -6.5 vs Northwestern - Boilermakers are coming off a couple of losses, and they outta smoke these bums.

Eastern Michigan +5 vs Temple - Both teams are on the up IMO, but coming off the bye week vs coming off a big win. Give me the bye week. Ron English has his team ready for this one.

Arkansas St. +21 vs Iowa - Iowa shouldn't be laying 21 to anybody. Period. They are coming off an "upset" win against a mediocre Penn State offense. Ferentz is as conservative as Joe Pa when he gets a lead. He's not a coach that covers big spreads all too often. Ark St. run D has a pulse.

Oklahoma -7 vs Miami FL - Canes still shellshocked after what happened to them in Blacksburg. Oklahoma's D is just as scary. Expect more Jacory Harris on the grass. Oklahoma has a better Offense than Va Tech too.

Penn State -6.5 vs Illinois - As bad as I think Penn State's offense is, Illinois's defense is that much worse. This is a terrible line for Illinois. Their D-Line is not as good as Iowa's and PSU will have more success both running and passing here. PSU's Defense is still ferocious and one of the best in the country (as good as, if not better than OSU's) PSU should be good for 21-24 here.
 

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Syracuse +7 vs South Florida - South Florida plays a perfect game with their backup QB at home to upset the Seminoles and now go on the road against an upstart Orange? Trouble for the Bulls in this spot.

While there was certainly a lot of Green in the stands, that game was played at FSU. FSU fans have had trouble selling their tickets, and numerous times went back to USF who was more than willing to take on more tickets to sell to their fans. Still, it's different getting on a plane and playing a few states away than playing a bus ride away in front of 25,000+ of your own fans going nuts in an "upset" bid.

I agree with the pick, however, as well as a few others (Oklahoma, Arkansas State, Penn State).

-ETC
 

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Oops, my bad on the "at home".. Doesn't change my analysis/pick though.

Thanks!
Gl.
 

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Picks are looking good. I think a ton of money will come in on SFla and hoping to get some more points with Syracuse. Toledo seems to be a good over bet. No total yet but they only play offense so depending on the number it looks good so far. Mich St should get it done at home with a Mich team on the road for the first time.

I see you like ECU -2.5 over Marshall. I was thinking to Marshall +3. I know ECU has talent but Marshall is looking to get back after last years OT loss.

Let's make that money.
 

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Nice leans. I'm going with you on Colorado, Mich St, Pitt & the Cuse. All nice spots for these teams. I bid you GL and hope you do well. Aloha from Hawaii.
 

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I must say though, Hawaii pick is not the way to go IMO. I am a Hawaii season ticket holder & I don't think Hawaii will win this on the road. LaTech's early opponents mixed w/a experienced offensive line should keep the Bulldogs out of harms way. Aloha from Hawaii.
 

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I don't know what Iowa will have to do to prove to people that they are for real. Penn St. had one play and that was play one on offense, after that it was dink and donk, and then nothing. Iowa wasn't playing with their 2 best offensive players in Bulaga and Moeaki. They will play this week. They did beat Iowa St on the road by a ton, had Arizona beat by 17 till a late TD, and we know the score of Penn St. Again, if that freak back to back field goal block was shown 175 million times, Iowa would be in the top 10 right now, and they are worthy of it. No one else I checked has played a better resume other than Houston when it comes to undefeated teams. Iowa 34-6.

On the otherhand, I think Penn St. kills Illinois. They will come out with a rush and Zooker's team will roll over. That is what they do best. 34-6

Ohio State's defense is better than last years team. Yes, I do think that. They will crush Indiana. 34-6.

See a theme.

A couple dogs

UCLA +6
Wisconsin +2 1/2

And completely unload on Cinci first quarter, first half, and game. Miami OH is horrible and Cinci can't even help it to get to 55.

NUTS
 

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Our First Impressions/Leans went 9-4 last week. Did slightly worse on actually posted/confirmed plays, but overall another very good weekend for those who followed the great one. :drink:

Here's this week's ideas.



Hawaii +3.5 at Louisiana Tech - Bulldogs' offense looks particularly lame after the defenses of Navy and Auburn were exposed. Hawaii has strong edge in the QB dept/passing game with Greg Alexander.

Colorado +17.5 at West Virginia - Buffs starting to figure it out. Both teams coming off bye weeks, Those 17 points look juicy.

Pittsburgh -6.5 at Louisville - Pitt QB Situation far more stable and have a quick strike offense, and stingy rush D. Should control the line on both sides of the ball.

Michigan St. pk vs Michigan - David Molk is a major loss for the Wolverines and they are going to feel it in this game. Michigan St.'s D-line is far superior to Indiana's and they are going to be on Forcier all day long.

Syracuse +7 vs South Florida - South Florida plays a perfect game with their backup QB at home to upset the Seminoles and now go on the road against an upstart Orange? Trouble for the Bulls in this spot.

East Carolina -2.5 at Marshall - I am just waiting for the Pirates to explode. They are due to have an easy win, this may be it. They are too good, too experienced to keep down forever. Marshall is getting a little ahead of themselves with their pair of wins over Memphis and Bowling Green.

Toledo/Ball St. Over ??? - Looking for something in the mid 50s range to pounce on.

Purdue -6.5 vs Northwestern - Boilermakers are coming off a couple of losses, and they outta smoke these bums.

Eastern Michigan +5 vs Temple - Both teams are on the up IMO, but coming off the bye week vs coming off a big win. Give me the bye week. Ron English has his team ready for this one.

Arkansas St. +21 vs Iowa - Iowa shouldn't be laying 21 to anybody. Period. They are coming off an "upset" win against a mediocre Penn State offense. Ferentz is as conservative as Joe Pa when he gets a lead. He's not a coach that covers big spreads all too often. Ark St. run D has a pulse.

Oklahoma -7 vs Miami FL - Canes still shellshocked after what happened to them in Blacksburg. Oklahoma's D is just as scary. Expect more Jacory Harris on the grass. Oklahoma has a better Offense than Va Tech too.

Penn State -6.5 vs Illinois - As bad as I think Penn State's offense is, Illinois's defense is that much worse. This is a terrible line for Illinois. Their D-Line is not as good as Iowa's and PSU will have more success both running and passing here. PSU's Defense is still ferocious and one of the best in the country (as good as, if not better than OSU's) PSU should be good for 21-24 here.


Hey Sekrah,

I like your style and thought process. Just wish that Nevada nightmare on Friday hit. We were on the right side of that game but shit happens and that's why they call it gambling. gl
 

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Hey Sekrah,

I like your style and thought process. Just wish that Nevada nightmare on Friday hit. We were on the right side of that game but shit happens and that's why they call it gambling. gl


There's not a doubt in my mind that we were on the right side in that game. Nevada covers in that spot 70-75% of the time, easy. 3 out of 10 chance hits 3 out of 10 times. Taua going down on the 4th play of the game, disgusting. He woulda went apeshit in that game. Just brutal beats all over in that game to keep us from cashing.
 

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Our First Impressions/Leans went 9-4 last week. Did slightly worse on actually posted/confirmed plays, but overall another very good weekend for those who followed the great one. :drink:

Here's this week's ideas.



Hawaii +3.5 at Louisiana Tech - Bulldogs' offense looks particularly lame after the defenses of Navy and Auburn were exposed. Hawaii has strong edge in the QB dept/passing game with Greg Alexander.






I am curious if you still have the same lean or impression on Hawaii now that they are +5.5 now? I really like Hawaii tonight, I was a little worried about the line movement.
 

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Sekrah,

Nice card. I like Hawaii , PSU and Pitt a lot.

Any thoughts on Miami or Washington?

Thanks!
 

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i like Hawaii alot in this game my booker has the public betting in Hawaii favor and there still giving Hawaii more points....hmmm seems to me like $$$$$
 

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sounds like hahwaii, who i have not seen play yet, has a really good offense, with the stats to back it up...my only question is why are they getting more points if money is coming in heavy in there favor???..is vegas baiting us to jumo on hawaii??...and does anyone know when the rainbow warriors made their trip to the mainland...they have traveled 3 time zones and jet lag may play a huge factor in this one....
 

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sounds like hahwaii, who i have not seen play yet, has a really good offense, with the stats to back it up...my only question is why are they getting more points if money is coming in heavy in there favor???..is vegas baiting us to jumo on hawaii??...and does anyone know when the rainbow warriors made their trip to the mainland...they have traveled 3 time zones and jet lag may play a huge factor in this one....

Sucks to see this kind of reverse line movement on a game you like.

However, this is the Warriors 3rd trip in a row to the mainland and they are 2-0 ATS and almost 3-0 SU. They had last week off to rest and get ready for the game. Normally, I would agree with you, but I think they are as ready as they can be for an away game...
 

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Ark St +21 is a good look, but believe me the Hawks are easily 21 points better than this team in a different situation. They have the classic letdown/lookahead/sandwich game going. Michigan comes to town the following week and the Hawks always get up for them. With a big emotional win last week and Michigan looming, it could take some attention away from this Saturday.

Ark St won't score more than 13 points even in this situation, but you may find Iowa's offense sputter a bit. Hawks still win easily, but may not cover the 21. 31-13 Iowa.
 

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Pittsburgh -6.5 at Louisville - Pitt QB Situation far more stable and have a quick strike offense, and stingy rush D. Should control the line on both sides of the ball.

As much as this game is screaming at me to take Pitt, I smell the makings of a TRAP! I would love to lay the points but I will def stay away. Aloha from Hawaii.
 

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Sucks to see this kind of reverse line movement on a game you like.

However, this is the Warriors 3rd trip in a row to the mainland and they are 2-0 ATS and almost 3-0 SU. They had last week off to rest and get ready for the game. Normally, I would agree with you, but I think they are as ready as they can be for an away game...

Sorry my friend. Hawaii will not cover this game. Smart money is on Bulldogs & ML bet % are thru the roof on Hawaii. Vegas will not allow Hawaii to win this game outright. If that was the case, Vegas would've made Hawaii the favorite if they thought Hawaii would win SU. Aloha from Hawaii.
 

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Sorry my friend. Hawaii will not cover this game. Smart money is on Bulldogs & ML bet % are thru the roof on Hawaii. Vegas will not allow Hawaii to win this game outright. If that was the case, Vegas would've made Hawaii the favorite if they thought Hawaii would win SU. Aloha from Hawaii.

No offense, but that is the dumbest logic I have ever heard. Underdogs win SU all the time. How is this game any different?
 

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