SEC Play-On Games for 2008

[SoonerBS]

I have been researching all the teams in the respective conferences since Spring Practice began. I've decided to put my findings and opinions on teams -- whether good or bad -- in a conference by conference list of "play-on games." This will not only give you an idea of what I think about some of these teams, but it will also give you some games to be looking forward to playing.

Now, understand that this info is still very early and could change according to injuries, transfers, suspensions, and etc. I am also still watching the developments of some teams to see if they get stronger and more harmonized in Fall camp. So, take these thoughts as the way it stands now.

SEC East

Florida

Last season I had Florida down as a "fade" team because of the inexperience on defense that they were bringing back off a National Championship season. I hope nobody followed my advice because they ended up going 9-4 SU & 8-4 ATS. Last season's defense ended up being a lot better than I expected. Meyer's work on recruiting and producing speed has really paid off. This year's defensive unit will be even more experienced and better than last season's unit with 8 returning starters. The entire team returns 52 lettermen and lost only 11! We all know how good the offense is led by last season's, and likely this season's, Heisman Trophy winner, Tim Tebow. So, let's look at the games to play for good money chances in 2008:

-- September 6th - Miami, FL. -- Remember last season whenever Miami came into Oklahoma and got beat by 38 points? The same thing happens here. Miami looks like they will not be any better than last season. And, this will be the first road game for whoever Miami's new QB will be for 2008. With the hype of a Marquee match-up here, we might even get lucky enough to get a good line. My prediction: Florida wins 49-10.

-- October 11 - LSU -- We all remember what happened last year between these two teams with Florida being up 24-14 in 4th quarter and LSU pulling one out of their ass to win. Well, that was at Baton Rouge, this year it will be played at Gainesville. Don't think the Gators will forget what happened last season. Florida has what should be an easy game, albeit on the road, against Arkansas the week before LSU and a bye-week following this game. I think all focus will be on LSU. The Gators will likely be favored, but it should be a very short line that will easily be covered. My prediction: Florida wins 32-24.

 

[SoonerBS]

Georgia

If Georgia's schedule was different, I would be picking them to win the national Championship this year. But, I see at least 3 road games that they could lose straight up. Be that as it may, Georgia, along with Florida, belongs in the top 5 of the nation this season.They return 17 starters and 45 lettermen off a team that went 11-2 last year and should have probably been playing in the National Title Game. If we would have been playing an "and one" playoff system, Georgia and LSU would have likely met in the finals and Georgia would have likely won in my opinion. But, that's all speculation. Still, Georgia was loaded last season and will be even better simply because of the experience this season. They are solid on both sides of the ball and I was really unable to find any weak spots -- except their schedule.

-- Georgia at Central Michigan Sept. 6th -- There are going to be a lot of dumb cappers who will play on CMU because they bring back 16 starters off a team that went 8-6 last season and won the MAC Championship. They are projected to probably win the title again this season (although I don't think it will be as easy for them this year.) BUT, let's keep in mind how weak the MAC was last season, and will be again this year (not a lot of changes). This is the same CMU team that lost 52-7 to Kansas in their road opener last year. AND, they lost to Div. 2AA North Dakota St by 30 points! What do you think Georgia is likely to do to them the second game of the season here? My prediction: Georgia wins 52-10.

-- Georgia vs. Tennessee October 11th -- Last year, Tennessee, coming off a bye-week, gave Georgia one of their rare losses by beating them 35-14. It was proof again of just how dangerous it is to play on the road in the SEC. This year, Georgia will be coming off a bye-week and Tennessee will be in the middle of 8 straight weeks of play! Payback time for Georgia here. My prediction: Georgia wins 32-13.

 

[SoonerBS]

South Carolina

After having some high hopes for finally putting together a competitive team last season, South Carolina ended by losing their final 5 games. The main reason for this dismal ending was due to injuries and poor QB play. The QB position is still a question mark going into this season, but whoever will take the reins as USC QB, they will likely be either more talented than the 2007 position or more experienced. A more experienced offensive line will be a great help for a more consistent offense. A completely healthy defense returning 10 starters will solidify the defensive side of the ball. This team returns 54 lettermen and loses only 18 and I think they will be a ton better than what they showed last season.

-- South Carolina vs. North Carolina St August 28th -- To say the least, South Carolina and Spurrier have a lot to prove to their fans. Can anyone think of a better way to do that than in a Thursday night ESPN game at home against an in-state rival? I don't know what the line will be on this game, but I could not find anything on the NC State team that would make me want to bet them at all. I think the line will come out less than two TDs. My prediction: South Carolina wins 28-10.

-- South Carolina vs. UAB September 27th -- After playing Georgia at home on September 13th, S. Caro. will play Wofford and then UAB before going to Mississippi the next week. UAB being the 5th game for S. Car. means enough time for any kinks to be worked out. UAB will not be much better than last season and should be a very easy win for S. Carolina. My prediction: South Carolina wins 38-7.

-- South Carolina vs. Tennessee November 1st --
Last year against Tennessee, S. Carolina had every offensive edge over Tennessee, but Tennessee had only 1 turnover to USC's 4. S. Carolina lost the game in OT by a FG. This year, they play Tennessee at Columbia after a bye-week and with Arkansas at home on deck. Tennessee will play this game sandwiched between Alabama and Wyoming on their schedule. Again, this will likely be a game where S. Carolina will be the short home favorite. My prediction: South Carolina wins 24-14.

 

[SoonerBS]

Tennessee

I've seen at least 3 publications making Tennessee a better team than last season's 10-4 team. Personally, I think they could be better, but we will likely not see it until mid to later season. The bright spot on this team is both the offensive and defensive line. However, The QB position will be less experienced and the linebacker corps will be weak. It will take a few games for these positions to gain the experience and confidence that they need. Problem is, they will not find much room to breathe in the first 4 games of the season. I think it's likely that they win the game on the road at UCLA (so if they come out a dog, we should play on them), but they will likely lose to Florida and Auburn. I don't have any "play-on" games for Tennessee right now, but I think they will likely be better to play on by the Mississippi St game. I do have them "faded" by two other teams in the UAB and Northern Illinois games. I think the lines on the visiting dogs will be too high and the position of these two games are not good times for Tennessee to be focused (UAB comes before Florida and after a "bye-week where Tennessee will likely be getting ready for Florida. The Northern Illinois game comes sandwiched between two road games at Auburn and Georgia.)

 

[SoonerBS]

Kentucky

Kentucky loses quite a bit off one of their most successful teams in years. They return only 4 on offense and 8 on defense. The good news is that they return 57 lettermen off last year's team so they will have some experience, but the bad news is that they lose their two most prolific skill players in Kentucky history -- Woodson, QB and Little, RB. They also lost 3 of their top 4 receivers. While it might look hopeful to be returning 8 starters on the defensive side of the ball, we have to remember that their defensive numbers were not that great as they relied mostly on their offense to win games.

-- Kentucky vs. Georgia November 8th -- This game comes late in the season for Kentucky so there is plenty of time for them to gain some experience at the skill positions. Meanwhile, this is a "sleeper" for mighty Georgia. Georgia's schedule goes at LSU, Florida in Jacksonville, at Kentucky, and at Auburn. I think they fall asleep in this game against Kentucky and we get good value playing a home dog. My prediction: Kentucky loses 32-28.

 

[SoonerBS]

Vanderbilt

Vanderbilt is back to being the stepchild of the SEC this year as they return only 3 starters on offense and 6 on defense. This is a definite rebuilding year for Vandy and I cannot play on them at all this season.

 

[SoonerBS]

Auburn

Auburn looks to top a 9-4 record from 2007 as they did far better than a lot of experts gave them. This season looks to be successful as well as they bring back 16 starters and 48 lettermen from last season. They do have to start a new QB but he figures to fit the spread system better than Cox and Field did. Kodi Burns will likely start and does have some game experience from last season. I think Auburn's biggest loss will be Will Muschamp the DC from last season who moved on to take the same position at Texas this season. Still, Tommy Tuberville is a proven coach and winner and I expect Auburn to be very good if not better this season than last.

-- Auburn vs. Southern Mississippi September 6th -- Auburn gets to open up with a decent home game against ULM. This should be the game where Burns gets his feet wet and starts to accept the fact that he is now the starting QB. Getting that done and out of his system, they play the next home game against S. Miss - a team that will be really down this year. Expect S. Miss to rely on running Fletcher a lot in this game as it will be the new QB for S. Mississippi's first road start. Auburn defense should be very strong against the run and I don't expect S. Miss to score more than a TD in this game. My prediction: Auburn wins 49-7.

-- Auburn vs. LSU September 20th -- This will be the first road game for LSU's new QB -- whoever it will be. Auburn usually plays LSU tough at home (hell, they played them tough on the road last year) and I expect Auburn to win this game straight up by a TD. I'm figuring the line to be short. My prediction: Auburn wins 21-14.

-- Auburn vs. Georgia November 15th -- This will be the last game in a killer 4 game stretch for Georgia. Auburn however will play lowly Tenn-Martin the week prior to this game and will follow this game up with a bye-week. Last year's game left a bad taste in the mouths of the Tigers after leading for 3 quarters they allowed 28 straight points for a 20-45 Georgia victory. Hang on to your panties, girls, I'm calling for an upset here. My prediction: Auburn wins 35-31.

 

[SoonerBS]

Louisiana State University

The 2007 National Champions will not repeat as the 2008 National Champions. That of course doesn't mean they will not be good though. The Tigers have key losses on both sides of the ball due to graduation, early defection for NFL and suspension. It will leave the Tigers breaking in a brand new QB, RB and WR on the offensive side of the ball. Defensively they were devistated. They lost their two best defensive producers in Dorsey and Highsmith and they will have to replace their entire defensive backfield. Still, despite all this, they have recruited well and should be a decent team by the end of the season.

-- LSU vs. Mississippi November 22nd -- Like I said, I think the best time to play on the Tigers this year will be at the end of the season whenever their defense will likely mesh better. They catch what I think will be a decent Mississippi team between their bye-week and a game at Arkansas. Mississippi on the other hand will play this game prior to the Egg Bowl against Miss. St the last game of the season. The spot and timing is right for LSU here. My prediction: LSU wins 31-10.

 

[SoonerBS]

Alabama

I think too many people gave 1st year coach Nick Saban and his Alabama team way too much credit last year. I still don't see them being a GREAT team this year, but I do think they will be better. Really the only weak spot with inexperience on the offensive side of the ball is at the wide receiver positions and they have some talented recruits they are starting in these spots. Defensively they return just 6 starters from last season, but the only true question marks are at the linebacker positions. Alabama went 7-6 last year and I think they will do better this year.

-- Alabama vs. Clemson August 30th -- This game will be played in the Georgia Dome so it's a neutral site for both teams. This should be a statement game for both teams so there is no clear motivation in that aspect, however, I am of the belief that you give Saban a month to work on a game and he'll find a way to win it. Clemson should come into this game ranked and favored. I'm calling for the upset. My prediction: Alabama wins 21-14.

-- Alabama vs. Western Kentucky September 13th -- SEC team against a bottom rung Sun Belt team in a 3rd game where Alabama should have some kinks worked out. "Nuff said. My prediction: Alabama wins 52-10.

-- Alabama vs. Kentucky October 4th -- This will be only the second road game for the new Kentucky QB and Alabama fans are going to be a culture shock for him. Alabama will likely be coming off a good ass-kicking received by Georgia the week before and will be looking to take some frustration out on somebody. The next week is a bye-week so there will be no holding back here. My prediction: Alabama wins 42-17.

 

[SoonerBS]

Ole Miss

I think Ole Miss will be a play-on team this season as they should be much improved from their 3-9 season of last year. They return 16 starters off last year's team, but they get to use the skills and aquisition of Jevan Snead at QB. Snead was a University of Texas transfer a year ago and while he was there he gave Colt McCoy a close run for the starting position. Last season Mississippi was a year away from truly being bowl eligible but they went ahead and fired HC Orgeron anyway. They hired Houston Nutt to fill the position and this should be a great move for both parties.

-- Mississippi vs. Memphis August 30th -- Mississippi barely won this game last year and the line was only -3 (they won by 2 points.) This year Ole Miss will likely be favored by a TD, and even though Memphis should be good this year, I will call for the Mississippi cover to start the season. My prediction: Mississippi wins 28-14.

-- Mississippi vs. South Carolina October 14th -- This will be Mississippi's homecoming game. It comes after they play Florida on the road and they will have a bye-week on deck. S. Carolina has lost the last 5 in this series and will likely lose this one though there is a good possibility they will be favored. My prediction: Ole Miss wins 28-10.

-- Mississippi at Arkansas October 25 -- This game doesn't come on a good spot in the schedule between Alabama and Auburn, but we all recognize the motivation here -- Houston Nutt coaching against his former Razorbacks! Arkansas embarassed Mississippi last year beating them 44-8 at Oxford, MS. Time for payback! My prediction: Ole Miss wins 35-14.

 

[SoonerBS]

Mississippi State

Mississippi State was the surprise team of the SEC last season going from a 3-9 2006 season to an 8-5 season! Croom verified what many thought -- he's a damn good coach. They bring back 14 starters and 47 lettermen off last year's team and look to be a team to be reckoned with yet again. The trouble area is going to be the offensive line though where they had to replace 4 starters. I think because of this the schedule dictates us playing on them mid to late season

-- Mississippi State vs. Middle Tennessee St. October 25th -- Mississippi St plays their homecoming game against the youngest and least experienced team in the Sun Belt conference. Sandwiched between tennessee and Kentucky and being the homecoming game, I don't look for MSU to lose focus. This should be more like a pack of wolves diving in on a caged rabbit. My prediction: Mississippi St wins 38-10.

-- Mississippi State vs. Kentucky November 1st -- Again, we are playing on these games mid to late season because we want to give the offensive line enough time to gel together and gain some experience. Kentucky is a "fade" team in the SEC this year and we'll do that here following the Middle Tenn St game and a bye-week on deck. Meanwhile, for Kentucky, this game is sandwiched between Florida and Georgia -- can you say, "YIKES!?" My prediction: MSU wins 31-14 (a complete turnaround of last season's results between these two teams.)

-- Mississippi St vs. Arkansas November 22nd -- This will be the last home game of the season, Senior day. It will come between games at Alabama and Mississippi. I think Miss St has their focus here because it will be Senior Day and there are many Senior playing this season. Arkansas, along with Vanderbilt and Kentucky are fade teams in the SEC this season and we'll look for this to be a very good spot to do that. My prediction: Miss St wins 35-14.

 

[SoonerBS]

Arkansas

I don't have any "play-on" games for Arkansas as they will be a "fade" team this season. They have lost their best RBs, WRs and 2 good linemen. The only thing left is a Dick (at QB, lol). Defensively they had to replace nearly their entire linebacking corps and defensive backfield. Petrino replaces Nutt as head coach and will eventually build Arkansas back, but it's going to take him at least 3 years and a lot of prayer to do so.

 

[GoSooners]

Good stuff BS...I've been working strictly on the Big 12..But most of these games look about right..Although two things: I think Auburn with their new spread "no huddle" offense is going to score more points this season...And no matter who's backyard they play in, Ole Miss almost always gives LSU a tough game..I think there's a long running story behind Ole Miss getting up and always playing at their best in this game..But I can't remember what it is..The winner of the Clemson/Bama game could set the pace for the rest of the season for whoever wins..It looks like a pretty even matchup. Judging by Clemson's close bowl game vs Auburn last year, it tells me they can play heads up against the best of the SEC. So they could be a very good team to bet on if they get past Bama. I've got them in my top 5 "play on" teams..But like I said, beating Bama could be their blueprint for the season of how successful they'll be.

 

[Gator627]

I like the call on Miami. I have said exactly the same since they were scheduled.

FWIW, Marve (RS last season due to hand injury) or the True FR from Miami NW will start against UF. Either way, they will only have started/played one game in their college careers prior to a visit to the Swamp.

 

[SoonerBS]

Thanks, guys, I'm very interested in your input as I'm trying to solidify all my info and thoughts on teams before August gets here and the lines start coming out.

 

[Tombstone]

Great stuff Sooner. I love your call in the Florida/Miami game. The Gators take the Canes out behind the woodshed in that one. The only way to beat the Gators is to score points and Miami's offense simply won't be able to do that, especially on the road in the swamp.

 

[trentmoney]

MSU beat kentucky last year... i know, i took the 14 and the under 60

i'd be a little careful w/ that um/uf game, and i've already played UF +650 for the NC so i'm expecting a great season from them

this could be a 25 pt spread, and the kids from the fla schools have all played against each other since high school and all-state games... i've seen a lot closer games than i expected with DD spreads in those match ups

good luck

 

[Gator627]

I would say play on Florida vs Hawaii. I think we win something like 56-10. Maybe worse. Hawaii wont be very good and it will be a 1230 start. Basically, a 630? start for Hawaii.

 

[GoSooners]

I think the question is how much line value are you going to get out of the number one team Florida this season? I believe the lines are going to be set ridiculously high for this team because of the numbers they put up last season and having a Heisman winning QB. This is why most of my "play on" teams either come from the weaker conferences or the teams from the BCS conferences that don't have the high expectations put on their shoulders..Big things are going to be expected out of Florida, OSU, USC & OU..We should be careful and pick our spots betting these teams since none of them are going to be the dogs in any of their games this season with the possible exception of OSU vs USC.

 

[trentmoney]

LSU was -7 vs UF last season

If gators are unbeaten and LSU has a loss when they meet we could see a higher spread than that...

remember, UF was -17 vs Auburn last yr