I wish I felt really good about another team so I could leave that one alone but all the big favorites scare me this week! Cincinnati without Green makes them very vulnerable in my opinion because Dalton relies on him so much. May still take Cincinnati though. Any thoughts on which game is a safer play?
Dallas needs to run the ball to be successful, and Seattle have given up a league best 2.6 yards per carry. The Seahawks accomplish this by stacking the box with 8, knowing their secondary can handle man coverage of receivers. I think this defensive scheme spells danger for Romo, especially in Seattle. As soon as their game plan breaks down, when Romo has to win the game, he tends to make the most mistakes. Tony Romo and the Cowboys are exceeding expectations as of now, but let's keep in mind that their victories have come against the Titans, Rams, Texans, and a very disappointing Saints team. I think that Seattle takes this by 10+ points.
I couldn't disagree more. If Denver and Green Bay could only put up 20 and 16 against the Seahawks at home how many points do you think Dallas is likely to score? Also, now that Percy Harvin is healthy, Seattle has been mixing it up with their offense and they look extremely strong (have you seen any of his 4 TD's that got called back the past two weeks? This guy is AMAZING!). With Harvin, Lynch and Wilson all playing as well as they have been, and playing at home. I'd be tempted to take Seattle in this game even if they were a 13.5 point favorite. This is one of my favorite lines of the week. Full disclosure though... I was born in raised in Seattle. However, I try not to let that influence my bets (I bet AGAINST Seattle last week when I got WAS at +7.5).
I'm a statistician/data scientist. My predictive model has Seattle at -10... so do what you will with the information. But my model doesn't account for the fact that Percy Harvin is on his A game, and I think that's worth at least 1 point in this matchup. Also, my model doesn't account for the fact that Seattle's home field advantage is more than 3 points. With those two factors combined, I think Seattle covers easily. They'd have to get pretty unlucky not to cover in this one in my opinion. The only downside to this matchup is that I think this is probably going to be Seattle's least motivating home matchup of the season. They know they have this one in the bag if they just show up at any level. It's not like they're going up against Denver, Green Bay or San Francisco. But don't be fooled by Dallas' record. They have a weak-ass schedule. That said, I don't think the motivation factor really comes into play much, if at all really. This is the NFL and it's week 6 and the Seahawks are still the defending champions playing at home. They will show up.
When you have these sorts of feelings about a game, that should serve as your indicator variable to not bet either side.
I have CIN as a 6-6.5 point favorite in my model, so I feel the line is spot on. If the line went to 7, maaaaybe I'd consider taking CAR, but otherwise I'm not touching this one. If it magically went to 7.5, I'd of course bet CAR, but that won't happen.
