I don't see how dallas puts points on the board. Jerry Jones opened his mouth and challenged Richard Sherman. Never a good idea for an owner to do this!! I love the Seattle D at home to only give up 7 points in this game. Under is my one pick this week. I am 1 and 1 ATS. I won with Packers in week 4 and lost with Saints in week 5. Hopefully i get my second victory!!
I don't really like the under play here this week. I'm Seahawks fan and have been a huge proponent of them covering and taking the under past two seasons, selectively of course, and it's paid off. However, this week, I think the Seahawks could put up quite a few points against the Cowboys. I agree with you that Dallas might not do much (Denver and Green Bay only put up 20 & 16 in Seattle this year - Dallas will need luck on their side to put up anything over 14), but I do like Seattle to cover here at almost any spread (I'm not saying that blindly either. I'm a huge Seahawks fan, born and raised in Seattle, BUT I bet with my head, not my heart. I even bet AGAINST Seattle last week and lost when I put money on WAS +7.5). Sometimes the Seattle offense doesn't exactly come together, that's the biggest gamble. But with Percy Harvin healthy and as well as Wilson has been playing as of late, I think Seattle could be due for a pretty big blowout in this matchup. They are a different team when Harvin is healthy. He's one of the most talented guys in the league in my opinion. It may go over. I wouldn't touch the O/U if I were you. It's pretty solid (and I love over/under bets... I build predictive models for a living).
So far, the only other bet I like this week is New England to cover -2.5 (I liked IND as well, but telling you to bet that now probably isn't going to win you very much money lol). I think NE moves to -3, so I'd get in now while it's still worth grabbing. I think -3 is about break even though since that point spread covers on the nose about 10% of the time. I won't touch it at -3, but I would definitely buy it now. I think a fair line is a cheap -3.5 or an expensive -3. But -2.5 is solid value and I got it at -106. New England has struggled thus far, but I think they've been fairly subject to bad luck. They're a better team than they've been playing so far, and that's the only reason this line is -2.5. It's good value here. Grab it before it moves!
I'm keeping my eye on JAX vs TEN. I can't tell you how much I hate Jacksonville. They are so fucking terrible. They did this last year too. No one thought they could possibly be THAT bad. Sharps lost a ton of money last year betting on JAX. It seems like it's happening again. It takes a while for Vegas to adjust their lines when teams are truly this bad. Then, just when everyone starts to bet against them, Vegas has adjusted enough for JAX to start covering lol. I don't want to bet without proper statistical justification, and my model says the line is about right. I'm going to wait and see what others I respect say though. If they're on TEN, I'll take it. If they're on JAX, mixed or neither then I'll just pass. TEN is pretty bad too though. But JAX... that's a whole new kind of bad. I think Auburn could take JAX (not really).
I'm also tempted to take Tampa Bay +3.5 at home against Baltimore. I have this one at +3 in my model, and I love getting that half point bonus on the +3 line. It's the biggest edge you can get on a line. I don't feel as though I have enough knowledge about either team though to pull the trigger. But if people I respect move on it, I'll jump on it for sure. I don't think this line is in jeopardy of moving down to +3 though, so I can be patient here.
I may have a couple other games by Sunday, but for now. This is my radar. I haven't placed any O/U bets yet. I'm going to finish my capping on those tonight. Might take me a couple hours to finish capping those though.
My only bets right now are:
Seattle -8 +100
New England -2.5 -106
Also, I bet more dogs than I do favorites, so these are pretty strong plays for me.
My two best bets this week are Seattle and Pats. I think the line is too low right now for pats vs. bills and I think Dallas is over hyped by the public. They have had a pretty easy schedule so far, barely beat the Texans. I think Dallas is the type of team that can definitely pull out an upset, though. I just think it's very unlikely to happen. If the line goes any higher on Seattle, I'm just going to double my bet and money line it. Definitely will take the points on the Pats (-3.5).
Ya, I switched my allegiance. Not only did I buy it out, but I put 2 more bet units on BUF. Every sharp on the planet has this game on BUF. My analysis was off. Not sure if BUF is better than I'm giving them credit for or if NE is worse or both, but I was definitely wrong on this one. Don't take NE!
