SD/CLE line movement -- any injury?

[chonce]

I am seeing this line at -4.5 now. It was 6 or even higher most of the week. This price indicates the book says on a neutral field SD is a 1.5 pt favorite? Is this similar to the GB/KC game when sharp money made the line just too easy on the squares (I only bet on a total in that game, but feel dumb for not taking GB -5). This line seems weird to me, but maybe I am missing something -- an injury?

 

[chonce]

This line has been as high as 7.5! http://www.covers.com/odds/linehistory.aspx?eventId=46988&sport=NFL

 

[chonce]

Wow already back up to 5 -- maybe someone laid a big bet on SD -4.5. Still, this price seems low and while I sort of liked CLE +7 the idea of SD as getting odds that indicate that are just 2 points better on a neutral field in interesting.

 

[Gravy]

SD O line is banged up as 4 starters could be missing today but Browns are beat up some also

 

[theDonger]

SD O line is banged up as 4 starters could be missing today but Browns are beat up some also

Is this right? My source only shows 1 tackle as being injured and Fluker is listed as probable.

This game is big time on my radar.

 

[PITBULL]

Its called a trap. Public hammering SD. Line dropping. The only play here is the Browns.
Same goes for the Atlanta/Houston game. Money all on Atlanta, yet line is dropping. PLay there is Houston.
Those are my 2 big games of the day

 

[chonce]

THEDonger,

Who you like SD?

 

[chonce]

Its called a trap. Public hammering SD. Line dropping. The only play here is the Browns.
Same goes for the Atlanta/Houston game. Money all on Atlanta, yet line is dropping. PLay there is Houston.
Those are my 2 big games of the day

I agree this formula (line moves away from consensus) is often a telling sign to go against public. But sometimes these have backfired (KC +5; CHI +2 at Zona). The formula --- line moves against consensus -- has been shaky so far. GB -5 at home was free money and I missed out because I employed the logic . Also lost CHI bet using the line movement strategy you mention. That said I lean STL and SF. But 4.5 smells like a bad line. Might pass but still mulling. GB - 5 might be an outlier. But SD -4,5? There is a little value in that.

 

[Murphy8276]

Its called a trap. Public hammering SD. Line dropping. The only play here is the Browns.
Same goes for the Atlanta/Houston game. Money all on Atlanta, yet line is dropping. PLay there is Houston.
Those are my 2 big games of the day

Hope these hit for ya bud. I like Cleveland but Houston the line drop could be public perception and not reverse line movement.

-murph

 

[TonyMar]

Weather and injuries.

Rain, but mostly strong winds that could create havoc for this game.

The Chargers will be without their LG Franklin, and will likely be missing the entire left side of their O-Line and center. I see no way Dunlap plays, maybe Watt, but not Dunlap.

 

[theDonger]

THEDonger,

Who you like SD?

IMO its Cleveland or nothing for me

 

[Biz]

I took Cleveland +7 last night, woke up and saw the big drop.

RLM has been a solid indicator for a long time. As with any trend/situation they can be streaky. Yesterday I had a play on Wake Forest, saw the situation had lost several in a row - despite being a long term winning situation - and passed. They easily covered.

I wouldn't dismiss RLM because of a losing streak, its still a viable tool.

 

[d3nv3r]

The public isn't really pounding the Chargers, don't be fooled.

 

[Biz]

Time
10/4
04:05 PM

Teams
267 - Cleveland Browns
268 - San Diego Chargers​

Market Avg.

Open
+7 -105
-7 -105
Current
+5 -108
-5 -102

Line Chart
​

 

[chonce]

I took Cleveland +7 last night, woke up and saw the big drop.

RLM has been a solid indicator for a long time. As with any trend/situation they can be streaky. Yesterday I had a play on Wake Forest, saw the situation had lost several in a row - despite being a long term winning situation - and passed. They easily covered.

I wouldn't dismiss RLM because of a losing streak, its still a viable tool.

Well said. I am just saying sometimes RLM are too extreme.

 

[d3nv3r]

thanks Biz, been thinking of getting an account over at SI

 

[bradyisgod]

I agree this formula (line moves away from consensus) is often a telling sign to go against public. But sometimes these have backfired (KC +5; CHI +2 at Zona). The formula --- line moves against consensus -- has been shaky so far. GB -5 at home was free money and I missed out because I employed the logic . Also lost CHI bet using the line movement strategy you mention. That said I lean STL and SF. But 4.5 smells like a bad line. Might pass but still mulling. GB - 5 might be an outlier. But SD -4,5? There is a little value in that.

This logic is wrong it's fair share of the time. Betting solely because of line movement isn't a good strategy in my opinion. It should just be a factor in the big picture of why you bet or pass a game. Houston is bad this year. I know this team better than most. Don't psych yourself out just because of line movement. Matty ice should go off on our lack of pass coverage at home.

 

[chonce]

Screw it. I see the line as low as 4.5 (-105) and (-108). I am biting: 1 unit SD -4.5 (-115 - best my books have). 1 unit. Will add to my thread too Others note the public is more split then we thought. Up 5 units this week so I will take plunge for 1 unit.

 

[d3nv3r]

Screw it. I see the line as low as 4.5 (-105) and (-108). I am biting: 1 unit SD -4.5 (-115 - best my books have). 1 unit. Will add to my thread too Others note the public is more split then we thought. Up 5 units this week so I will take plunge for 1 unit.

same here, took SD at -5 a few hours ago.