It looks like the Over train is, ahem...over, as the board offers some solid unders this week. I was very close with some score predictions on last week's games, which can be found on that thread. I use a detailed spreadsheet program I've designed to incorporate stats, injuries, and talent levels in my predictions. Weather forecasts have been consulted to shade totals down where wind and rain are forecasted. Picks found at the bottom of this post.
Some Final Scores do not exactly represent the values listed, as I shade a score here and there to land on "football" numbers.
(Pinnacle Point Spreads)
Home--My Score--PS----PS Value
Away--My Score--Total--Totals Value
Ravens___24__-8___Ravens .51 value
Cowboys__15__35.5_Over 3.95 value
Once again, I like a Ravens game to go over. Cowboys have a softer D. than the Jets had last week, and are just as likely to give a TD to the ball-hawking Ravens as to themselves.
Bills___21__+1___Bills 2.93 value
Rams__20__40___Over .04 value
Bills looked pathetic last week but have generally been competitive this season, especially at home. Rams nothing to write home about.
Panthers__20__-3___Cardinals 1.25 value
Cardinals__19__38__Over 1.41 value
No thanks.
Bears__17__+7.5___Colts 1.73 value
Colts__26___44.5___Under 1.36 value
Looks like a good Colt tease play if you have to give more than a touchdown.
Bengals___17__-4___Steelers 1.41 value
Steelers___21__40.5_Under 2.57 value
60% chance of rain with 5-15 winds. It seems likely that the Steelers will capitalize on one big mistake/play to cover this one.
Browns__21__PK___Jets .15 value
Jets____21___37.5_Over 4.27 value
With both teams likely to be scrapping for points to the wire, this is the best Over of the week. Could be a repeat of last week's Jets/Ravens game where a tie score guaranteed the over (barring a scoreless OT, lol).
Jaguars__21__-3___Jaguars 2.43 value
Titans___17__36.5__Over 2.86 value
Even giving the battle of the backup QB edge to Volek, every other edge goes to the home Jaguars. Chris Brown is doubtful for the Titans, who could be playing catchup through the air, helping the over. Fair-weather forecasted.
Vikings__27__-7.5___Vikings .39 value
Lions____19__48____Under 2.99 value
Vikings tease. With 3 good receivers out combined, the under looks favorable. Remember, the Lions only scored 3 points on offense last week.
Saints___22__+4__Saints .96 value
Broncos__25__47__Over .09 value
My spreadsheets Overs tend to not compute quite as high as higher betting totals, so when I get a number as high as 47 even with the actual spread, I like to make a small play on the over, and they usually do allright. For example, last week I had the Packers/Vikings game right on 50, the posted total, so I made a play on the over and it covered handily...so I've making a small play on the over in this one.
Bucs__21__-8___49ers 3.70 value
49ers__17__42__Under 3.69 value
Even with the apparent value, the 49ers, as the worst team in football right now, aren't reliable enough to make a play on, though it helps to have Rattay in there. The 49ers also lost two CBs last week, which is calculated in my predictions. Alstott returns for the injured Comella. The volative 49ers can wreck an under in one quarter of play, but I still like theunder in this game.
Raiders___21__+4___Chargers .29 value
Chargers__25__48.5__Under 2.09 value
As I said above, the higher the posted total, the more my number tends to stay a little more centralized, so I don't like a play on the under here.
Seahawks__23__-10__Dolphins 3.23 value
Dolphins___16__37.5_Over 1.43 value
Can the Hasselbeck-led Seahawks, who haven't looked too impressive lately, cover against a still-scrappy Dolphins D? It doesn't look like it. A.J. Feely is not exactly a QB upgrade, and I'm not sure how the sudden coaching change will affect the Dolphins, but 10 is a lot of points.
Giants___19__+3__Giants .70 value
Falcons__22__40.5_Over .62 value
Eli Manning's first start against a decent defense and an elusive/unpredictable Vick make a play on the Falcons, in spite of my spreadsheets complaints, seem like a good play. I'll warn you, though, my computer is usually smarter than I am.
Eagles___24__-11__Redskins .59 value
Redskins_13___38__Under .99 value
Slim pickings with that large number.
Texans___21__+3___Packers 1.64 value
Packers___26__49.5__Under 2.51 value
Packers surging, Texans fading. The total might hit 50--wait and take the under when it peaks.
Chiefs___23__+3___Patriots 2.42 value
Patriots__28__52.5__Under 2.34 value
A very consistent Patriots team versus a very inconsistent Chiefs team. Priest Holmes out, Blaylock not 100%, Chiefs defense not physical like the one team the Patriots lost to--the Steelers. Only laying a field goal here looks very good to me. The Monday night "home team pumped up effect" might wear off pretty quick in this one.
TOP PLAYS
Patriots -3
Jaguars -3
Browns/Jets Over 37.5
Eagles -3/Vikings PK 2 team teaser
Colts -1/Ravens -2 2 team teaser
2NDARY PLAYS
Ravens/Cowboys Over 35.5
Bucs/49ers Under 42
Bengals/Steelers Under 40.5
Texans/Packers Under 49
Vikings/Lions Under 48
Dolphins +10
Falcons -2.5
Jaguars/Titans Over 36.5
That's throwing a lot of darts, I realize, but hey, we're here to have fun on Sunday, right?
Good Luck everyone, and have a good week.
Some Final Scores do not exactly represent the values listed, as I shade a score here and there to land on "football" numbers.
(Pinnacle Point Spreads)
Home--My Score--PS----PS Value
Away--My Score--Total--Totals Value
Ravens___24__-8___Ravens .51 value
Cowboys__15__35.5_Over 3.95 value
Once again, I like a Ravens game to go over. Cowboys have a softer D. than the Jets had last week, and are just as likely to give a TD to the ball-hawking Ravens as to themselves.
Bills___21__+1___Bills 2.93 value
Rams__20__40___Over .04 value
Bills looked pathetic last week but have generally been competitive this season, especially at home. Rams nothing to write home about.
Panthers__20__-3___Cardinals 1.25 value
Cardinals__19__38__Over 1.41 value
No thanks.
Bears__17__+7.5___Colts 1.73 value
Colts__26___44.5___Under 1.36 value
Looks like a good Colt tease play if you have to give more than a touchdown.
Bengals___17__-4___Steelers 1.41 value
Steelers___21__40.5_Under 2.57 value
60% chance of rain with 5-15 winds. It seems likely that the Steelers will capitalize on one big mistake/play to cover this one.
Browns__21__PK___Jets .15 value
Jets____21___37.5_Over 4.27 value
With both teams likely to be scrapping for points to the wire, this is the best Over of the week. Could be a repeat of last week's Jets/Ravens game where a tie score guaranteed the over (barring a scoreless OT, lol).
Jaguars__21__-3___Jaguars 2.43 value
Titans___17__36.5__Over 2.86 value
Even giving the battle of the backup QB edge to Volek, every other edge goes to the home Jaguars. Chris Brown is doubtful for the Titans, who could be playing catchup through the air, helping the over. Fair-weather forecasted.
Vikings__27__-7.5___Vikings .39 value
Lions____19__48____Under 2.99 value
Vikings tease. With 3 good receivers out combined, the under looks favorable. Remember, the Lions only scored 3 points on offense last week.
Saints___22__+4__Saints .96 value
Broncos__25__47__Over .09 value
My spreadsheets Overs tend to not compute quite as high as higher betting totals, so when I get a number as high as 47 even with the actual spread, I like to make a small play on the over, and they usually do allright. For example, last week I had the Packers/Vikings game right on 50, the posted total, so I made a play on the over and it covered handily...so I've making a small play on the over in this one.
Bucs__21__-8___49ers 3.70 value
49ers__17__42__Under 3.69 value
Even with the apparent value, the 49ers, as the worst team in football right now, aren't reliable enough to make a play on, though it helps to have Rattay in there. The 49ers also lost two CBs last week, which is calculated in my predictions. Alstott returns for the injured Comella. The volative 49ers can wreck an under in one quarter of play, but I still like theunder in this game.
Raiders___21__+4___Chargers .29 value
Chargers__25__48.5__Under 2.09 value
As I said above, the higher the posted total, the more my number tends to stay a little more centralized, so I don't like a play on the under here.
Seahawks__23__-10__Dolphins 3.23 value
Dolphins___16__37.5_Over 1.43 value
Can the Hasselbeck-led Seahawks, who haven't looked too impressive lately, cover against a still-scrappy Dolphins D? It doesn't look like it. A.J. Feely is not exactly a QB upgrade, and I'm not sure how the sudden coaching change will affect the Dolphins, but 10 is a lot of points.
Giants___19__+3__Giants .70 value
Falcons__22__40.5_Over .62 value
Eli Manning's first start against a decent defense and an elusive/unpredictable Vick make a play on the Falcons, in spite of my spreadsheets complaints, seem like a good play. I'll warn you, though, my computer is usually smarter than I am.
Eagles___24__-11__Redskins .59 value
Redskins_13___38__Under .99 value
Slim pickings with that large number.
Texans___21__+3___Packers 1.64 value
Packers___26__49.5__Under 2.51 value
Packers surging, Texans fading. The total might hit 50--wait and take the under when it peaks.
Chiefs___23__+3___Patriots 2.42 value
Patriots__28__52.5__Under 2.34 value
A very consistent Patriots team versus a very inconsistent Chiefs team. Priest Holmes out, Blaylock not 100%, Chiefs defense not physical like the one team the Patriots lost to--the Steelers. Only laying a field goal here looks very good to me. The Monday night "home team pumped up effect" might wear off pretty quick in this one.
TOP PLAYS
Patriots -3
Jaguars -3
Browns/Jets Over 37.5
Eagles -3/Vikings PK 2 team teaser
Colts -1/Ravens -2 2 team teaser
2NDARY PLAYS
Ravens/Cowboys Over 35.5
Bucs/49ers Under 42
Bengals/Steelers Under 40.5
Texans/Packers Under 49
Vikings/Lions Under 48
Dolphins +10
Falcons -2.5
Jaguars/Titans Over 36.5
That's throwing a lot of darts, I realize, but hey, we're here to have fun on Sunday, right?
Good Luck everyone, and have a good week.
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