Market update
Where the sharp money is flowing today
1 p.m. ET: Houston Texans (9-5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-7)
This line opened with Houston listed as a short 1.5-point road favorite. More than three-out-of-four bets are laying the points with the Texans. Sharps also steamed Houston early, pushing the line up to 3 or even 3.5 at some shops. That's when you saw some buyback on Tampa getting the points. Tampa has value as an inflated contrarian home dog. However, the Bucs will be missed their top two wide receivers: Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Saturday road teams are 46-29 ATS (61.3%) since 2003.
The total opened at 52.5 and has fallen to 50.5, signaling some sharp under action. The forecast calls for 15 MPH winds. The over is 11-3 in Bucs games but the under is 8-6 in Texans games.
4:30 p.m. ET: Buffalo Bills (10-4) at New England Patriots (11-3)
The Patriots opened as 6.5-point home favorites. Two-thirds of bets are backing the Bills plus the points. This line has dropped to 6 throughout at the week but has mostly remained at 6.5, signaling a sharp line freeze on New England. Buffalo has value as a road divisional dog (23-17 ATS, 58% this season) and a dog with a low total. Saturday road teams are 46-29 ATS (61.3%) since 2003.
The total is 38.5. December divisional unders are 10-5 (67%) this season and 57% since 2003. Both teams have been highly profitable to the under this season, with the Bills 11-3 and Pats 9-5. The forecast calls for high 20s with 5 MPH winds. John Hussey, the lead ref, has historically favored home teams (54.8% ATS) and unders (57.5%).
8:15 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Rams (8-6) at San Francisco 49ers (11-3)
This line opened with San Francisco listed as a 6.5-point home favorite. Despite three-out-of-four bets laying the points, the line has remained frozen at 6.5, signaling smart money grabbing the points. Books refuse to push the line a half point toward the popular side and hand out a 7 to contrarian wiseguys betting the Rams. Los Angeles has value as a road divisional dog (23-17 ATS, 58% this season) and a road dog off a loss (43-24 ATS, 64%). Dogs off a blowout loss of 20 points are 55% since 2003. Saturday road teams are 46-29 ATS (61.3%) since 2003.
Sharp money has dropped the total from 46 to 44.5. December divisional unders are 10-5 (67%) this season and 57% since 2003. The forecast calls for 7 MPH winds. Primetime unders are 28-17 (62%) this season. The under is 9-5 in Rams games and 7-7 in 49ers games. These two teams met in mid-October and the 49ers won 20-7 as 3-point road dogs.
