Saturday Plays

[Coast2Coast]

Will post them as I play them..

Memphis-Louisville under 139-1/2
Classic under angle here with a team playing its fourth game in four days against a team playing its third in three. Sorry I don't have complete records on this angle but I play it every year when it pops up and sure...have lost some. But trusting my recollection the last 10-15 years, the angle is strongly positive. Linesmaker didn't slash the line too much (maybe a point) from what the stats indicate this number ought to be in a normal rest/season scenario.

 

[Coast2Coast]

Two more. More later.

Minnesota +13-1/2 vs. Illinois
I suppose I could try to play psychologist and express opinions about how the death will affect the Illini, but my degrees aren't in psychology or psychiatry, so I won't play doctor. What I saw from the Illini yesterday was a team that looked different than the one we've watched for much of the season. Read Kojak's take on the Illini's performance yesterday. That's what I saw too.

Texas Tech +6 vs. Oklahoma
Pure fade. Fading a few services here, including one who has had such a bad run that it is now forcing plays by giving all of its plays a top rating today. Guess he's got to figure out some way for its clients to get back into the black by the end of the season or his biz will finish the year in the red. That wouldn't be good for marketing all next year. So instead of giving out a bunch of plays like yesterday (which didn't work), he's just raising the units played on each today. Chasing and forcing rarely works. Keep an eye out for services that are in the hole so far they're chasing for marketing purposes. They make for especially nice fades.

 

[Coast2Coast]

Iowa +5, -115
Iowa on a bit of a roll and Wisky wouldn't even be in this game had Ohio state not missed a half dozen bunnies down the stretch last night. They match up pretty well with the Badgers. And will also ride the "hot" team getting points.

 

[NEWPORT]

Two more. More later.

Minnesota +13-1/2 vs. Illinois
I suppose I could try to play psychologist and express opinions about how the death will affect the Illini, but my degrees aren't in psychology or psychiatry, so I won't play doctor. What I saw from the Illini yesterday was a team that looked different than the one we've watched for much of the season. Read Kojak's take on the Illini's performance yesterday. That's what I saw too.

Texas Tech +6 vs. Oklahoma
Pure fade. Fading a few services here, including one who has had such a bad run that it is now forcing plays by giving all of its plays a top rating today. Guess he's got to figure out some way for its clients to get back into the black by the end of the season or his biz will finish the year in the red. That wouldn't be good for marketing all next year. So instead of giving out a bunch of plays like yesterday (which didn't work), he's just raising the units played on each today. Chasing and forcing rarely works. Keep an eye out for services that are in the hole so far they're chasing for marketing purposes. They make for especially nice fades.

Nice JOB!!!!

 

[Coast2Coast]

Thanks Newport. Shaping up as another day for the dogs.....

 

[cincy_]

Blind squirrel -> ME
Nut -> your pick with Texas Tech

I followed it on the blind just for the heck of it. Thanks.

 

[Coast2Coast]

Hugg, I was pretty much a blind squirrel on that one too. I keep working on finding the right trees to climb/fade, and I've found a few that seem to have a lot of nuts on them. Was always hesitant to post pure fade plays as they weren't really my own capping or insight. But they've done better than my own not-so-prescient analyses, so why not. We'll see how it goes.......

 

[Coast2Coast]

Washington +2..1/2 unit
I liked Washington here, but A LOT of people I respect are on Arizona in this one. So I trimmed this to a half play. If it comes down to the last shot, gimme the points....but don't think it will.

 

[cincy_]

I took WashU blindly with the pts and on the ML - simply because everyone else was on AZ.

1/2 unit each -

Also, if Wash is up at HT, might try to make some money on the ML by hedging.

 

[Coast2Coast]

West Virginia +5 vs. Syracuse
Boise State +10 vs. UTEP
I've had this "conventional wisdom" for several years that you bet against teams playing their fourth games in four days. It's one of my capping notes that I carry with me from year to year. It worked for several years, but the last few years, the angle hasn't been quite so profitable. If that conventional wisdom were so true, then why aren't the lines in these games higher? I saw similar questions asked this morning with Memphis........and look what happened there. Cuse was a 12 point favorite at home when these teams played...so why shouldn't the line be about 7 here, not 5.? Boise lost by 14 both times they played UTEP..including a week ago. That line is probably about right. But if tired legs were such a factor, wouldn't these lines be inflated by a point or two? Maybe conventional wisdom isn't all it's made out to be. Maybe the conventional wisdom ought to be "ride the hot teams with the points". 1 unit on each.