12 p.m. ET: Auburn at West Virginia
Auburn (16-4, ranked 15th) just saw their five game winning streak come to an end, falling to Texas A&M 79-63 and losing outright as 3.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, West Virginia (12-8) has won two of their last three games and just took down Texas Tech 76-61, winning outright as 3.5-point road dogs. This line opened with West Virginia listed as a 3-point home favorite. At first glance, this opening line seems fishy. Why is West Virginia favored if Auburn has the better record and higher ranking? The public thinks the wrong team is favored and nearly 60% of bets are taking the points with Auburn. However, we've seen the line move further to West Virginia (-3 to -3.5), signaling pro money laying the points with the Mountaineers at home. Unranked home favorites vs ranked opponents are 17-8 ATS (68%) this season. West Virginia is only getting 40% of bets but nearly 70% of money, a sharp bet discrepancy. Ken Pom has West Virginia winning by four points (72-68).
12:15 p.m. ET: Xavier at Creighton
Xavier (17-4, ranked 13th) has won two straight games and just upset Connecticut 82-79, winning outright as 6-point road dogs. Meanwhile, Creighton (12-8) has won three straight games and just crushed St. John's 104-76, easily covering as 10.5-point home favorites. This line opened with Creighton listed as a 4-point home favorite. The public sees an easy layup with Xavier as the ranked team getting points. However, despite 73% of bets taking Xavier and the points, we've seen the line move from Creighton -4 to -5.5. Why would the oddsmakers move the line to hand out additional points to the public when they're already hammering Xavier to begin with? Because pros sided with contrarian home favorite Creighton, triggering sharp reverse line movement in favor of the Bluejays. Creighton has value as a fishy unranked home favorite vs a ranked opponent. Creighton is only receiving 27% of bets but 57% of money, a sharp bet discrepancy in their favor. Ken Pom has Creighton winning by four points (81-77).
8 p.m. ET: Kansas at Kentucky
Kansas (16-4, ranked 9th) has lost three straight games and just fell to Baylor 75-69, failing to cover as 2-point road dogs. On the flip side, Kentucky (14-6) has won four straight games and just took down Vanderbilt 69-53, covering as 6-point road favorites. This line opened with Kentucky listed as as 1.5-point home favorite. Right off the bat, this opening line speaks volumes. Why is unranked Kentucky favored over 9th ranked Kansas? Shouldn't it be the other way around? The public thinks the wrong team is favored and 72% of bets are taking the points with Kansas. However, despite this lopsided betting we've seen the line move further toward unpopular Kentucky (-1.5 to -2.5). This signals smart money fading the trendy dog and laying the points with the contrarian favorite Wildcats. Unranked home favorites vs ranked opponents are 17-8 ATS (68%) this season. Kentucky is only receiving 28% of bets but 44% of money, a sharp contrarian bet discrepancy. Ken Pom has Kentucky winning by one point (71-70). Kentucky is -140 on the moneyline.
Auburn (16-4, ranked 15th) just saw their five game winning streak come to an end, falling to Texas A&M 79-63 and losing outright as 3.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, West Virginia (12-8) has won two of their last three games and just took down Texas Tech 76-61, winning outright as 3.5-point road dogs. This line opened with West Virginia listed as a 3-point home favorite. At first glance, this opening line seems fishy. Why is West Virginia favored if Auburn has the better record and higher ranking? The public thinks the wrong team is favored and nearly 60% of bets are taking the points with Auburn. However, we've seen the line move further to West Virginia (-3 to -3.5), signaling pro money laying the points with the Mountaineers at home. Unranked home favorites vs ranked opponents are 17-8 ATS (68%) this season. West Virginia is only getting 40% of bets but nearly 70% of money, a sharp bet discrepancy. Ken Pom has West Virginia winning by four points (72-68).
12:15 p.m. ET: Xavier at Creighton
Xavier (17-4, ranked 13th) has won two straight games and just upset Connecticut 82-79, winning outright as 6-point road dogs. Meanwhile, Creighton (12-8) has won three straight games and just crushed St. John's 104-76, easily covering as 10.5-point home favorites. This line opened with Creighton listed as a 4-point home favorite. The public sees an easy layup with Xavier as the ranked team getting points. However, despite 73% of bets taking Xavier and the points, we've seen the line move from Creighton -4 to -5.5. Why would the oddsmakers move the line to hand out additional points to the public when they're already hammering Xavier to begin with? Because pros sided with contrarian home favorite Creighton, triggering sharp reverse line movement in favor of the Bluejays. Creighton has value as a fishy unranked home favorite vs a ranked opponent. Creighton is only receiving 27% of bets but 57% of money, a sharp bet discrepancy in their favor. Ken Pom has Creighton winning by four points (81-77).
8 p.m. ET: Kansas at Kentucky
Kansas (16-4, ranked 9th) has lost three straight games and just fell to Baylor 75-69, failing to cover as 2-point road dogs. On the flip side, Kentucky (14-6) has won four straight games and just took down Vanderbilt 69-53, covering as 6-point road favorites. This line opened with Kentucky listed as as 1.5-point home favorite. Right off the bat, this opening line speaks volumes. Why is unranked Kentucky favored over 9th ranked Kansas? Shouldn't it be the other way around? The public thinks the wrong team is favored and 72% of bets are taking the points with Kansas. However, despite this lopsided betting we've seen the line move further toward unpopular Kentucky (-1.5 to -2.5). This signals smart money fading the trendy dog and laying the points with the contrarian favorite Wildcats. Unranked home favorites vs ranked opponents are 17-8 ATS (68%) this season. Kentucky is only receiving 28% of bets but 44% of money, a sharp contrarian bet discrepancy. Ken Pom has Kentucky winning by one point (71-70). Kentucky is -140 on the moneyline.
