At the Gate - Saturday
By Mike Dempsey
It does not get much better than today’s 12-race card at Saratoga where we have four graded stakes on tap along with the two-time reigning Horse of the Year in action.
We are down to just three racing days left in the Saratoga meeting, and this is the next to last day we will be able to enjoy track announcer Tom Durkin, who will call his last race on Sunday.
The stakes action kicks off with the fifth race, the $250,000 Bernard Baruch Handicap (G2), where Wise Dan will race for the first time off a four-month break. He was forced to the sidelines with emergency colic surgery.
The gelding carries top weight of 127 and is 3-5 on the morning line, and it sure was tempting to try and beat him. I just could not find a viable option to beat him. The gelding has won 13 of his 14 career starts on turf and has run well off the bench in the past. It looks like maybe single in the last leg of the early Pick 5.
The $300,000 Prioress (G2) for three-year-old fillies drew a competitive group, five of which exit the Test (G1) which was run on Aug. 2 and won by Sweet Reason. The Todd Pletcher trained Sweet Whiskey is the 2-1 morning line favorite.
The $500,000 Forego (G1) is another good betting race, drawing a field of 10. The winner earns an automatic starting spot in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint (G1) as part of the “Win and You’re In” series of races.
Clearly Now is the one to beat but at 7-5 on the morning line is not going to offer much value. The colt won the Belmont Derby (G3) last out earning a career top speed figure. I am hoping we can get some prices underneath him.
The marquee event of the day is the $600,000 Woodward (G1), which actually is not a Breeders’ Cup Challenge race. Moreno is the 2-1 morning line favorite, and he already stamped his ticket to the Classic by winning the Whitney (G1) in gate to wire fashion on Aug. 2.
He is the lone speed in the race, but every other jockey knows that and I am expecting to see an early pace battle which could set things up for the favorite to get beat. After all, he has won just three of his 20 career starts, and anything less than the 2-1 morning line sure seems light.
My Best Plays for Saturday includes my nine strongest plays from Del Mar and Saratoga.
Here is today’s opening race from Saratoga to get the day off to a good start:
SAR Race 1 Md Sp Wt (1:00 ET)
3 Firespike 5-2
7 Epsilon 5-1
8 Tapkee 7-2
11 Lucky Leroy Brown 7-2
Analysis: Firespike makes his third career start here after checking in a game second in his debut and then third last out in his local debut, both as the beaten favorite. Three have exited the race to run, two next out maiden winners and the winner ran fourth in the With Anticipation (G2) here yesterday. He looks capable of getting the job done here third out for Maker.
Epsilon makes his debut for the McLaughlin barn that is 18% winners (with a +ROI) with first timers. This guy is a half to six turf winners and a couple of stakes winners, top earner Alpha ()$1.8 million) The colt has sharp works on the morning tab and looks ready to fire a good one at first asking.
Wagering
WIN: #3 to win at 5-2 or better.
EX: 3,7 / 3,7,8,11
TRI: 3,7 / 3,7,8,11 / 3,7,8,11,12
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Saratoga:
SAR Race 10 The Forego G1 (6:14 ET)
8 Clearly Now 7-5
9 Weekend Hideaway 10-1
6 Palace 3-1
1 Capo Bastone 15-1
Analysis: Clearly Now earned a career top speed fig with a sharp win in the Belmont Sprint (G3) last out and the effort was flattered when the runner up Palace came back to win the Alfred G. Vanderbilt (G1) in his next start on Aug. 2 here. The colt has now landed in the money in 13 of his 15 career starts and has been working smartly at Woodbine over the poly since his win. The colt owns a solid pace profile throughout and looks capable of winning right back here although the price is going to be on the light side. It could be even lighter if Palace scratches as his trainer Linda Rice is thinking about skipping this race and waiting for the Vosburgh (G1) on Sept. 27.
Weekend Hideaway is coming off back-to-back wins against state breds, last out taking the field gate to wire to win the John Morrissey here going 6 1/2 furlongs. The colt has done his best running over the Spa main track, winning three of four with a second. The colt comes in here very sharp right now for the Phil Serpe barn that has been sending out live runners at the meeting.
Wagering
WIN: #8 to win at 7-5 or better.
EX: 8,9 / 1,6,8,9
TRI: 8,9 / 1,6,8,9 / 1,6,8,9,10
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Del Mar:
DMR Race 9 The Del Mar Debutante G1 (6:12 PT)
5 Sunset Glow 5-2
2 Manahatta 5-1
6 Her Emmyency 7-2
1 Seduire 8-1
Analysis: Sunset Glow returned from her overseas trip to win the Sorrento (G2) last out, dueling for the early lead and drawing off late to win by 3 1/4 lengths and earning the top last out speed fig. Two back at Royal Ascot the filly set the early fractions and finished gamely in a runner up finish on the turf in the Albany Stakes (G3). She is going to be tough here and I doubt we are going to see her 5-2 morning line, we will have to settle for less.
Manahatta dueled or the early lead and held on in the stretch despite drifting out a bit late to break her maiden in her debut for the Hollendorfer barn. She beat a couple of foes she takes on again here. The barn does solid work with juveniles and she has posted two more solid works since her unveiling. She still looks as if she has some upside and will need to move forward to get to our top pick.
Wagering
WIN: #5 to win at 9-5 or better.
EX: 2,5 / 1,2,5,6
TRI: 2,5 / 1,2,5,6 / 1,2,5,6,8
Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
Saratoga
R4: #6 Enjoy the Show 10-1
R5: #8 Five Iron 8-1
R6: #11 Non Stop 8-1
R8: #3 Southern Honey 10-1
R9: #3 Gratitude 8-1
R10: #9 Weekend Hideaway 10-1
R10: #1 Capo Bastone 15-1
R11: #1 Long River / 1a Romansh 8-1
R12: #2 Street Gent 20-1
R12: #9 Golden Soul 8-1
Good luck today!
w-thumbs!^
