Saturday 7/16/16 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

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Preview: San Antonio Stars at Phoenix Mercury
Saturday 7-16-16 10:00 PM EST.

Things have gotten even tougher for the struggling San Antonio Stars.
With leading scorer Kayla McBride out for the season with a broken foot suffered earlier in July, the Stars (5-16) have lost three straight and now head to Phoenix to take on Diana Taurasi and the high-scoring Mercury on Saturday at Talking Stick Resort Arena.
McBride was averaging 17.1 points before being ruled out for the season. She was the focal point of a limited offense, and the Stars are still trying to figure out how to adjust.
"We've gone through a period where you've lost your leading scorer," San Antonio coach Dan Hughes told the team's website. "So you handle it, but then teams adjust a little bit to you not having that. So now we have to play to some other aspects of our game."
The Stars are averaging a league-low 72.8 points per game and the Mercury lead the WNBA in scoring, averaging 86.9 points per game.
The Mercury snapped a three-game losing streak with a 78-74 win over the Washington Mystics on Wednesday. Brittney Griner had 22 points, eight rebounds and five blocks in the win.
Taurasi, the second leading scorer in the WNBA, had 21 of her 31 points in the first half of the Mercury's 90-75 home win over the Stars on June 10. Phoenix has won three straight and seven of eight overall against San Antonio.
The Stars are coming off an 81-57 blowout loss to the Minnesota Lynx. They were outrebounded 43-26 by the Lynx. Moriah Jefferson led the Stars with 14 points and Monique Curry added 10. Jefferson is the only active Star averaging in double figures at 11.5 points per game.
"It's tough when you take somebody that your leading scorer because that's been a big percentage of what you do," Hughes said. "But now we've had a little time to say, 'Let's emphasize this. Let's focus on this execution.'"
The Stars' five wins are the fewest in the WNBA. They are 1-8 against Western Conference teams.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

AFL Betting Recap - Week 15
By Joe Williams

League Betting Notes

-- Favorites went 4-0 straight up in Week 15
-- Favorites/underdogs went 2-2 ATS in Week 15
-- Home teams posted a 3-1 SU record in Week 15
-- Home teams posted a 3-1 ATS record in Week 15
-- The 'Over/under' went 2-2 in Week 15

Team Betting Notes

-- Philadelphia (11-3) entered their game against Cleveland (7-7) as a 15 1/2-point favrite, and ended up covering in their 83-62 win. The non-cover for Cleveland snapped a three-game ATS win streak, and the 'over' put the brakes on a 3-0 'under' run for the Gladiators.

-- The Soul got back on track after a two-game non-cover run (0-1-1 ATS), covering against the Glads to improve to 9-4-1 ATS overall on the season. Philly finally got it right with their first cover in three tries against Cleveland, too.

-- It wasn't pretty but Orlando (12-2) was able to escape with a 47-41 road win in Portland (1-12). Despite the win and great overall SU record, the Predators are just 2-6 ATS over their past eight games, and 1-3 ATS over their past four road outings.

-- The Predators are getting plenty of attention at the betting window, too. The 'under' is a perfect 6-0 in the past six outings for Orlando. That under streak will be put to the test in Arizona next week, although the 'over' hit in their first meeting May 7 in Orlando.

-- Arizona (11-3) narrowly edged Jacksonville (5-8) by a 69-67 count in a rare high-scoring game for the Sharks. The 'under' is still 7-2 in the past nine for J'ville. The 'over' is a frequent happening for AZ, going 6-0 in the past six and 8-1 over the past nine.

-- L.A. Kiss (6-7) added to the woes of Tampa Bay (1-12) with a 48-21 win Monday night, covering a 15 1/2-point spread. The Kiss improved to 6-1 ATS over the past seven, while the Storm slipped to 0-5 ATS over the past five outings.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Week 16 Preview: Philadelphia Soul at Tampa Bay Storm

TAMPA BAY – The Tampa Bay Storm (1-12, 0-6) hosts the Philadelphia Soul (11-3, 3-1) this Saturday, July 16. Fans will be able to catch all of the action as Darek Sharp and Ian Beckles make the call for 1250 AM WHNZ. The game can also be streamed on the Lightning Power Play through the iHeartRadio app. The game will be broadcast on ESPN2. Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET.

This is the 16th meeting between Tampa Bay and Philadelphia, and the eighth time the Storm has hosted the Soul. Philadelphia leads the overall series 10-6, with the Storm holding a record of 4-3 at home. Philadelphia has outscored the Storm by a total of 174 points in the series.

The Storm will enter the game coming off a short week after suffering a loss to the LA KISS on Monday night. The team entered halftime tied with the KISS at 14 points, but LA would outscore the Storm 24-7 in the second half. The game showed the offensive and defensive lapses that have been frustrating the Storm all season long. This week the team will look for consistency on both sides of the ball.

Look for the team to continue to search for its identity. The team has the ability to go toe-to-toe with the best the League has to offer after defeating the Arizona Rattlers in week 9. That game showed that if the team can play a complete game, it could contend. With only three weeks until the postseason, it is imperative for the Storm to put together complete games.

The complete game begins with the offense and what it can do on the receiving end. Storm wide receiver T.T. Toliver has continued his assault on the record books, surpassing Barry Wagner as the League leader in all-purpose yards versus the KISS. The future hall of famer now has 21,146 all-purpose yards and is also the League leader in career receptions (1,182) and receiving yards (15,495). However, the team cannot rely on Toliver alone. If it wants to succeed it must look for all of its receivers. With a receiving corps. that contains Toliver, Prechae Rodriguez, Kendrick Ings and Phillip Barnett, the Storm has the ability to put up points.

Defensively, the Storm will have to get back to basics. The team had a top-three defense in several categories, reeling off several consecutive weeks with interceptions and sacks. The team will look to get back to this and start wreaking havoc on opposing defenses. The Storm will have to rely on its veteran defensive lineman. With pressure, the defensive backfield will be able to go to work and force some turnovers.

The defense will have its hands full this week when it goes up against one of the League’s top quarterbacks in Dan Raudabaugh, who is in the top-3 of nearly every statistical category. Much of his success can be attributed to a quick release and an offensive line that has yielded just five sacks all season. Raudabaugh’s top target all season has been wide receiver Darius Reynolds who has caught 100 passes for 1,314 yards and 33 touchdowns.

As the Storm searches for its next win, the team will also be looking to put together a complete game. At this time of year, a little momentum could go a long way.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Week 16 Preview: Cleveland Gladiators at Los Angeles Kiss
Saturday, July 16th at 10 PM EST.

Gladiators Look To Clinch Postseason Home Game Against KISS

MATCHUP – The Cleveland Gladiators (7-7) will face high stakes when they travel to the Honda Center in Anaheim, Calif., to play the LA KISS (6-7) in Week 16 on Saturday, July 16th at 10 PM EST. Saturday’s game is the final meeting of the regular season between Cleveland and Philadelphia after the KISS won 47-42 in Week 3 at Quicken Loans Arena. With a win, the Gladiators will clinch a home game at The Q in the first round of the postseason.

LAST TIME OUT – Last Saturday, the Gladiators fell to the Philadelphia Soul 83-62 in Allentown, Pa. Cleveland QB Arvell Nelson threw for a career-high 404 passing yards and eight total touchdowns (one rushing). WR Quentin Sims led the receiving corps with 10 catches, 128 yards and two touchdowns, while Collin Taylor extended his franchise record streak to 30 straight games (29 regular season, 1 postseason) with a receiving touchdown after a 10-catch, 101-yard, two-touchdown performance. WRs Devin Wilson and Larry Beavers also reached the end zone two times apiece.

GLADIATORS PLAYERS TO WATCH – Nelson continues to raise his QB Rating week after week, remaining in fifth place in the AFL with a QBR of 113.8 and tossing 62 touchdowns so far this season. He also ranks third in the league in rushing with 191 yards and nine touchdowns. Taylor ranks fifth in the league with 100 catches and sixth in the league with 1,268 yards and 29 touchdowns, while fellow receivers Wilson, Sims and Beavers have added a combined 38 touchdowns to the stat sheets. On the defensive side of the ball, Marvin Ross continues to lead the defense in his rookie season, ranking first on the team in tackles (77.5), pass breakups (22), interceptions (6), defensive touchdowns (3-tied) and forced fumbles (2).

KISS PLAYERS TO WATCH – QB Nathan Stanley came back strong in Week 15, throwing for 186 yards and four touchdowns in his first start since Week 5. WR Donovan Morgan remains one of the top receiving threats in the AFL, posting 81 receptions for 1,113 yards and 35 touchdowns in his eighth season. Fellow wideouts DJ Stephens and Brandon Collins have combined for 1,528 yards and 12 touchdowns each. Defensively, the KISS are led by DB Fred Obi, who has 73.5 tackles, 15 pass breakups and five interceptions on the season.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

WEEK 16 PREVIEW: Jacksonville Sharks at Portland Steel
Saturday, July 16 10:00 p.m. ET.

SHARKS CONTINUE WEST COAST TRIP TO PORTLAND

JACKSONVILLE - The Jacksonville Sharks will travel to the West Coast for this week’s contest against the Portland Steel on Saturday, July 16. The matchup at Portland’s Moda Center is set for 10:00 p.m. ET.

Saturday’s game will be the second and final contest between Jacksonville (5-8) and Portland (1-12) in the regular season. Jacksonville handily defeated the Steel in Week 8, 71-34, thanks in large part to Tommy Grady’s eight touchdown passes and four interceptions by the Sharks’ defense. The Sharks take the field this weekend in hopes of snapping their three-game losing streak.

A victory this week is crucial if the Sharks plan to come back in the race for the No. 4 overall seed. Currently, the Gladiators hold that No. 4 spot by a game and a half over the Sharks and one game over the Los Angeles KISS, the next team on the Sharks schedule. Cleveland lost to Philadelphia last Saturday and battles the KISS this week, so the Sharks are still in contention to secure an opening-round home game. However, Jacksonville cannot win a head-to-head tiebreaker against Cleveland, which makes each of the Sharks’ final three regular-season games absolutely critical.

Last week, the Sharks came up short at Talking Stick Resort Arena against the Arizona Rattlers, falling by a 69-67 count. In what was a one-score game for the entirety of the second half, the Sharks failed on an attempted two-point conversion which would have tied the game with just nine seconds left on the clock.

A turnover proved costly again this week, as Arizona’s Rodney Fritz sacked Grady from behind late in the first quarter, forcing a fumble that eventually led to a Rattler touchdown. Aside from the one turnover, Grady protected the football well, firing a team-record 10 touchdown passes en route to a 29-for-47, 344-yard night.

In all, the Sharks’ offense scored a touchdown on all but one offensive possession last week, and Jacksonville will look bring that same chemistry into this week’s matchup with the Steel. Last time out, all four of the Sharks receivers found the end zone at least once. Joe Hills led the charge with five scores, while Tiger Jones returned to the lineup and racked up 10 receptions for 112 yards and two touchdowns. Reggie Gray also scored twice and totaled 214 all-purpose yards, while Andrew Robustelli hauled in his first career touchdown reception.

On the other side of the ball, the Sharks will defend against a Portland offense which has had trouble coming up with scores, as the Steel are second-to-last in the AFL with an average of 40.5 points per game. One area in which the Sharks will look to take advantage is turnovers, as the Steel have given the ball away 35 times through 13 games, an average of nearly three turnovers per contest.

Steel quarterback Shane Austin is mobile as he ranks second in the league amongst rushing quarterbacks behind Cleveland’s Arvell Nelson. However, Austin has struggled to protect the football this season, tossing a league-leading total of 17 interceptions in just eight games. Jacksonville’s front four did not record a sack in either of the last two games, so this week the Sharks will look to generate pressure while also neutralizing Austin’s scrambling ability.

On the other side, Portland’s defense has had issues generating consistent stops, as the Steel rank last in points allowed per game (60.9). The Steel defense has secured two interceptions in the past four weeks but has not recorded a sack or a fumble in that time period.

The Sharks must put it all together for 60 minutes this week to get back in the win column and gain ground in the standings. Saturday’s kickoff is set for 10:00 p.m. ET.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

StatFox Super Situations

ARENA | PHILADELPHIA at TAMPA BAY
Play On - Any team (PHILADELPHIA) with an incredible offense - averaging 7.0 or more yards/play, after gaining 360 or more total yards in their previous game
37-13 since 1997. ( 74.0% | 22.7 units )

ARENA | PHILADELPHIA at TAMPA BAY
Play On - Any team vs the the 1rst half line (TAMPA BAY) after going under the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games
55-27 over the last 5 seasons. ( 67.1% | 25.3 units )
8-7 this year. ( 53.3% | 0.3 units )

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

CFL Betting Notes - Week 4
By David Schwab

Saturday, July 16

British Columbia Lions (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS) vs. Saskatchewan Roughriders (0-2 SU, 1-1 ATS)
Point-spread: PICK
Total: 50

Game Overview

The Lions fell from the ranks of the undefeated with last week’s loss after posting impressive victories against Calgary as an underdog at home and Hamilton as a road underdog in their first two games. The total has stayed UNDER in all three of their games. BC turned to veteran quarterback Travis Lulay last week for a struggling Jonathan Jennings and he completed 12-of-15 attempts for 156 yards and a score in the losing cause.

A 0-2 start for a team that only won three games last season is not what new head coach Chris Jones was looking for when he left Edmonton to take over the reins at Saskatchewan. The one bright spot has been the play of quarterback Darian Durant, who basically missed the entire 2015 season due to injury. In a losing cause last week against the Eskimos, he threw for 317 yards and four touchdowns while connecting on 27 of his 38 passing attempts.

Betting Trends

The Lions have won four of the last five meetings SU and they hold a 3-1-1 edge ATS. The total has stayed UNDER in three of those five games and it has stayed UNDER in seven of the last eight meetings in Saskatchewan.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Saturday's CFL betting preview and odds: Lions at Roughriders

BC Lions at Saskatchewan Roughriders (-1.5, 49.5)

The BC Lions look to bounce back from their first defeat when they hit the road to take on the Saskatchewan Roughriders on Saturday. The Lions failed to generate any offence with Jonathon Jennings under centre, and the first-year starter was pulled in favour of Travis Lulay late in the third quarter of the 25-14 loss to the Toronto Argonauts, but BC coach Wally Buono was quick to dispel any notion of a quarterback controversy by confirming Jennings will be the starter on the weekend.

BC has won four of the last five meetings with Saskatchewan, including the last two games in Regina, and hopes to improve to 3-1 for the first time since 2013. The Roughriders are still searching for their first win of the season after falling 39-36 in overtime to the Edmonton Eskimos. Saskatchewan head coach Chris Jones elected to go for it on third-and-inches instead of kicking the game-tying field goal in overtime and the Riders came up short resulting in their 22nd loss of their last 26 regular-season games. "We're going to be aggressive and we're playing to win," Jones told reporters. "We're going to face those situations again and we're not going to change our philosophy."

TV: 7 p.m. TSN

LINE HISTORY: The line opened this game at a Pick'em, but it has seen mostly Roughriders money since then. The line quickly moved to Roughriders -1, then -1.5, before climbing as high as -2, before settling back at the current number of -1.5.

The total meanwhile, has seen much less movement. The line opened at 50 and remained there for most of the week, before coming down a half-point to 49.5 on Thursday.

ABOUT THE LIONS (2-1, 2-1 ATS, 0-3 O/U): Jennings threw for 132 yards and added a rushing touchdown before making way for Lulay, who completed 12-of-15 passes for 156 yards and a score against Toronto. "We're not going to put Jonathon in a situation where the pressure is all on him," Buono told reporters. "If you have a guy like Travis around then why not utilize him?" Running back Anthony Allen accounted for 139 total yards and caught a touchdown pass deputizing for an injured Jeremiah Johnson and he hopes to get the call once more against his former team.

ABOUT THE ROUGHRIDERS (0-2, 1-1 ATS, 1-1 O/U): Darian Durant threw for 317 yards and four touchdowns in the loss to Edmonton to become the 17th quarterback in CFL history to pass for over 25,000 yards. Ricky Collins had the best game of his young CFL career as he caught six passes for 115 yards and a touchdown against the Eskimos. Quarterback Jake Waters was acquired in a trade with the Hamilton Tiger-Cats and Bryant Moniz, who fumbled in back-to-back games, was released to make room for the former Kansas State star.

TRENDS:

* Lions are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games.
* Roughriders are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games following a ATS win.
* Under is 6-0 in Lions last six games overall.
* Over is 4-0 in Roughriders last four versus Western Division opponents.
* Under is 7-1 in the last eight meetings in Saskatchewan.

CONSENSUS: The public is giving a slight edge to the home team in this matchup, with 53 percent of wagers on the Roughriders. As for the total, bettors are split down the middle with 50 percent of wagers on the Over and 50 percent on the Under.

EXTRA POINTS:

* Saskatchewan has given up at least 30 points in each of its last seven losses.
* BC led the CFL with 328 rushing yards through the first three weeks.
* Durant has passed for 627 yards and five touchdowns in his first two games of 2016.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Week 4 CFL games

BC Lions (2-1) @ Saskatchewan (0-2)-- Roughriders allowed 34.5 ppg in losing first two games, losing in OT to Edmonton; Saskatchewan lost four of last five games with Lions, who won 26-13/27-24 in last two visits to Regina. BC crushed Riders 46-20 in last meeting LY. Under is 15-4 in last nineteen series games. British Columbia lost at home to Toronto LW, its first loss in three games- they road opener at Toronto 28-3 two weeks ago. Underdogs are 9-1, under is 7-4-1 so far this season.

British Columbia Lions
Saskatchewan Roughriders 1.5, 50

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

At the Gate - Saturday
By Mike Dempsey

We had four winners on top on Friday’s nine race card at Belmont Park including I Love You Still, who paid $23.00 in the nightcap.

If you played the early Pick 5, it was a bit chalky, but we scored for $406.50 on a $1 ticket with three of my top picks winning and two of my second choices. Along with my four top picks, my second choice won four other races on the card. That left just one other race, with Fournette scoring as my fourth choice, paying $31.80.

We seem to be in a good groove as the Belmont Park meeting comes to an end on Sunday. We will have a four-day break and Saratoga opens for the summer meeting next Friday.

The stakes on Saturday at Belmont Park came up short, with the $125,000 Rockville Centre and the $150,00 Forbidden Apple each drawing just five runners.

The $750,000 Delaware Handicap (G1) at Delaware Park did not fare much better, with just six going to the gate. It does look like a good matchup between Paid Up Subscriber and I’m a Chatterbox.

One of the better wagering races is the $500,000 Indiana Derby (G2) at Indiana Grand which drew a field of 12 led by Preakness (G1) runner up Cherry Wine and Rebel Stakes (G2) winner Cupid. I am looking to beat both.


Here is today’s opener from Belmont Park to get the day off to a good start:

BEL Race 1 OClm $62,500N2X (1:30 ET)
#5 Second City 7-2
#4 Scarly Charly 5-2
#1 Royal Squeeze 9-5
#2 Escape to the Moon 3-1

Analysis: Second City came with a good late rally to finish in the runner up spot last out against $50,000 claimers. The gelding was claimed out of the race by the Englehart barn that is 25% winners (with a +ROI) first off the claim. He steps up in class but catches a short field here and he looks sharp enough to beat this group.

Scarly Charly tracked the early pace and weakened to finish fifth last out at this level. He owns solid early and mid pace numbers and he has some back class beating tougher than these. The Hushion trainee has won twice over the main track here.

Wagering
WIN: #5 to win at 5-2 or better.
EX: 5 / 1,4
TRI: no play

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Belmont Park:

BEL Race 8 The Forbidden Apple (5:13 ET)
#4 King Kreesa 7-2
#1 Force the Pass 3-5
#2 Tapitation 4-1
#3 Lubash 10-1

Analysis: King Kreesa appears to have lost a step or two since earning a career top speed fig winning this race last year. He has not lost six in a row, last out chasing a sharp early pace and weakening to finish fifth in the Poker (G3), He was a decent second behind Tapitation two back in the state bred Kingston in his second start off the layoff after running fourth three back in the Elusive Quality. He owns solid early and mid pace numbers and if he can shake loose early here he may be able to get back on track. He has a 18-7-4-3 over the turf here.

Force the Pass was second in the Poker last out behind Obviously, a multiple Grade 1 winner who got loose on the lead. The colt was a close up third two back in the Appleton (G3) off a 6 1/2 month layoff and comes in here off back to back career top speed figs. The logical one to beat but his price is going to be short.

Wagering
WIN: #4 to win at 5-2 or better.
EX: 4 / 1,2
TRI: no play

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Delaware Park:

DEL Race 9 The Delaware Hcp G1 (5:15 ET)
#1 Paid Up Subscriber 2-1
#4 I'm a Chatterbox 6-5
#6 Penwith 9-2
#5 Mei Ling 5-1

Analysis: Paid Up Subscriber passed her first test around two turns with flying colors, winning the Fleur de Lis 'Cap (G2) at Churchill Downs last out at nine furlongs. She ran in two stakes last year but they were both sprints. The Al Stall trainee has enough pedigree to get today's longer distance. She is by Candy Ride out of a Street Cry mare. She gets four pounds for the chalk and is going to offer a bit more value for the top spot.

I'm a Chatterbox won the local prep for this, the Obeah by 8 1/2 lengths and while she came home on the slow side she still earned a near career top and she won by 8 1/2 lengths. She won 4 of 8 last year including sweeping the three Fair Grounds stakes for three-year-old fillies and the Cotillion which was her first Grade 1 victory. She was up front in the CCA Oaks (G1) and prevailed by a nose but was DQ'd for interference in the stretch in a tough call last summer at the Spa. Jones is always tough here and has hit at a 50% clip at the meeting and won this race in 2005 with Island Sand. The main knock is the light price.

Wagering
WIN: #1 to win at 2-1 or better.
EX: 1,4 / 1,4,6
TRI: no play

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Belmont Park
R2: #4 Indygita 8-1
R3: 32 Ethan Hunt 8-1
R5: #5 Rahy’s Bandit 20-1
R7: #2 She’slikethewind 8-1
R8: #3 Lubash 10-1
R9: #10 Luckbox Sam 10-1
R10: #4 Love Blues 8-1

Good luck today!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Century Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 5 - Post: 2:30 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 58 - Purse:$5800 - NW 2 RACES OR 9500 LIFETIME


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 8 PICKLES ON TOP 4/1



# 6 TELEGRAPH HANOVER 9/2



# 1 FUNKMEISTER 10/1



If you want a great play here, feast your eyes on PICKLES ON TOP. This contender may have some hidden form, a trip to the winner's circle would be a pleasant surprise. This race could very well be controlled by this filly. Just one look at the avgerage speed rating will confirm that. Should be given a look based on the nice speed rating achieved in the last gathering. TELEGRAPH HANOVER - Can't forget based on speed ratings which have been excellent (61 avg) within the recent past. FUNKMEISTER - When the starter calls, interesting entrants beginning out of the 1 post have more wins than the expected average. Fraess has a really strong ROI when his runners go down in class.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Yonkers Raceway

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 11 - Post: 10:30 - 1 mile. TROT - Class Rating: 96 - Purse:$35000 - PREFERRED HANDICAP POST POSITIONS 1-6 ASSIGNED


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 5 RED HOT HERBIE 3/1



# 3 LADY'S DUDE 3/1



# 6 CASH ME OUT 2/1



RED HOT HERBIE is the finest play in this contest. Has the makings of a profitable play, averaging a rather good 97 TrackMaster Speed Rating. Enters this gathering with respectable TrackMaster class figures as compared to the bunch - take a good look. Has to be given a look based on the competitive speed rating recorded in the most recent race. LADY'S DUDE - Very high winning pct makes this contender an excellent pick to take home the dough. Unquestionably the class of the group of animals with an average rating of 94. A nice selection. CASH ME OUT - High winning figure makes this contender an excellent pick to take home the dough. The knowledge group noted a substantial outing out of this entrant last time. Looking for a duplicate of that to win.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Hastings Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 4 - Claiming - 8.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $13000 Class Rating: 87

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR BRITISH COLUMBIA BREDS WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 117 LBS.; OLDER, 122 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE JUNE 16 ALLOWED 2 LBS. SUCH A RACE SINCE MAY 16 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $16,000, IF FOR $14,000, ALLOWED 3 LBS.



RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 2 ROYAL BRIAR 8/5


# 1 MERLOT 6/5


# 6 KILLARNEY KID 5/1


ROYAL BRIAR is my choice. Looks very strong for the conditions of this contest today, showing solid numbers in dirt route races recently. Shows evidence of the look of a profitable play, averaging a solid 75 speed fig which is one of the best in this group of animals. He looks very good in this spot and I expect will be on the front end or close at the midpoint. MERLOT - Must be given a shot here on the basis of the figs in the speed department alone. Had one of the strongest speed figures of this field in his last contest. KILLARNEY KID - Should be given consideration in this contest if only for the decent Equibase Speed Figure put up in the last competition.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Mountaineer Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 5 - Claiming - 8.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $6300 Class Rating: 72

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE JUNE 16 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000



RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 4 AUTUMN EMBER 8/1


# 6 HE'S THE DUDE 6/5


# 1 HEAVENELEVEN 7/2


AUTUMN EMBER is the most competitive bet in this contest especially at a long price. The price could be just right on this horse. Tough to pass on this colt with Ortiz in the saddle. Keep this colt in your exotics as Ortiz has given backers some double digit dividends. HE'S THE DUDE - He has a good opportunity in this race as trainer, Shilling, has sharp win rate with horses going this distance. The Equibase Speed Figure of 61 from his last affair looks decent in here. HEAVENELEVEN - Is worth thinking about and may be a wager - strong speed figures (67 average) at today's distance and surface lately. Have to examine solely on class, with some of the best class numbers of this group.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Sacramento - Race #3 - Post: 2:18pm - Claiming - 8.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $8,500 Class Rating: 78

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#1 SHE'S A CHARMER (ML=7/2)
#5 LUVURYAN (ML=5/2)


SHE'S A CHARMER - Have to make this filly a solid contender; she comes off a good race on Jun 26th. The most dangerous animal in racing is the lone speed horse. If they let her get away early they probably won't catch her. Look at this pattern of improvement. 52/58/68 are the last 3 Equibase speed figures. LUVURYAN - This horse collects a lot of dough per start. Number one in this event.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 KAPAYA (ML=2/1), #2 TIZ A LUCKY ONE (ML=4/1), #4 MCCANN'S HALF FULL (ML=8/1),

KAPAYA - This filly earned a speed rating in her last race which likely isn't good enough in today's race. TIZ A LUCKY ONE - This less than sharp equine didn't go to the front end and didn't close ground down the homestretch last time she ran. This filly probably needs a more preferred pace configuration to make her closing rush. MCCANN'S HALF FULL - Tough to like the downward spiraling flow (75/56/52) of speed ratings.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Put your money on #1 SHE'S A CHARMER on the nose if you can get odds of 9/5 or more

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [1,5]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
None

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
None

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Gulfstream Park - Race #7 - Post: 3:54pm - Claiming - 7.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $15,000 Class Rating: 91

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#3 DOUBLE JUDGE (ML=8/1)
#2 OLD TIMES SAKE (ML=7/5)
#1 AMACE (ML=15/1)


DOUBLE JUDGE - The most dangerous animal in racing is the lone speed horse. If they let him get away early they probably won't catch him. I think Arias is making a good move here. This horse can only profit from the shorter distance. Finished fifth at Gulfstream Park last out. Was close at the end and at odds of 8/1 in this race, he looks like a possible contender. I usually like playing sprinters who are 3-4 races into a return. OLD TIMES SAKE - Have to give this gelding a good shot. Ran a sharp outing in the last race within the last 30 days. This gelding is tops in earnings per race. Give the once over to this one in the saddling enclosure. AMACE - Gelding won on April 9th at this class and distance. Last time this gelding ran today's distance he got a fig that would probably win today's race. Have to like the way Luna has raced this gelding back into shape off the layoff. Animal is well spotted in this sprint and I think he'll run well today.

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 CRAZY FRANK C (ML=9/2), #8 FLASHING CAT (ML=5/1), #9 GLOTON (ML=8/1),

CRAZY FRANK C - This animal doesn't have a conquering disposition. Always finishes in the place or show spot. Could be tough for this horse to beat this bunch off of that last speed rating. Not probable to improve enough to run a figure close to today's class rating, so put him on the vulnerable competitors list. FLASHING CAT - This colt hasn't had any recent accomplishments in sprint events. Not easy to play him in this race. GLOTON - Hard to put your dough on the win end of any animal that finishes second and third as frequently as this entrant does. Tough for this closer horse to get up today. Without a hot pace to stir things up, the lone front speed is going to make it awfully hard to get the job done.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:
#3 DOUBLE JUDGE to win at post-time odds of 4/1 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [1,2,3]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [1,2,3] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

SUPER HI 5 WAGERS:
None

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Hawthorne Harness: Saturday 7/16 Analysis
By Jeremey Day

DRF HARNESS

Best Bet (11 - 19 / $57.80): COOL LIKE THAT (8th)

Spot Play: MAKEOUTLIKEAPANDIT (6th)


Race 1

(1) FOX VALLEY INFERNO well bred pacer looks to be much the best against this group; short price. (8) IN YOUR EYE might be the only horse with a shot to upset with improvement. (3) JD JAY DEE could have more to offer with a few starts under his belt; use underneath.

Race 2

(6) BAYSIDE TEQUILLA appears to be getting better in his last two efforts. The pacer will offer a big price and just missed last week to a decent horse. (7) GOTTA GO ANDY comes into the race off an easy win against similar; threat. (4) DAKOTA ROAD gelding has a tendency to burn cash when he looks the best on paper; use caution.

Race 3

(1) MADD HOSS JACKSON well bred 2-year-old had some bad luck in his debut but finished his mile up nicely. (6) THE SMIDGE looks ready for a good effort third start back off a long layoff. (4) HEAVEN FOR SURE is another lightly raced horse who could show improvement.

Race 4

(1) CRUIZE COMMANDER has been inconsistent from week to week. If the pacer races his best he can score at a price. (6) RASCAL FLATTER pacer has been tremendous in a new barn and now picks back up the top driver. (4) CAPELO is capable with a fast pace to close into.

Race 5

(6) STRONG PLAYIN KING is just now back in racing shape coming off a needed start. The pacer gets sent out for capable connections against a suspect bunch. (4) MAJOR ED has raced super in three straight; fires early. (2) HOODWINKED just raced evenly last week but could hit the ticket underneath.

Race 6

(5) MAKEOUTLIKEAPANDIT just missed making it two straight last week after being hounded most of the mile last week. The pacer is sharp and will be tough to beat with a similar effort. (3) IM SO HANDSOME has been close to the top choice in two straight and looks to offer big value. (4) OLD MAN RIVER gets sent out for a hot barn that can't be left off the ticket.

Race 7

(8) IMPRESSIVE ART was really flying late last week off a slow middle half. The 3-year-old can pick up the pieces especially with early fireworks. (6) DAN D DUNE seems to finally be back in form; big chance. (9) ROYAL ROSE will be flying out of the gate for position. The pacer is a smooth trip a way from a nice piece.

Race 8

(6) COOL LIKE THAT has been competitive against much tougher including the field last week. (2) DIXIE'S BOY has had trouble finding the winner's circle this year but was the driver's choice. (3) FOX VALLEY GEORGE went from empty to awesome last week. A similar effort puts him in the mix.

Race 9

(7) DONALD HIMSELF probably has more to offer third start out in a new barn; top driver's choice. (6) S F LAW was used multiple times last week parked first up. If the pacer can work out a better trip he is one of few threats in the race. (2) DONTDOUBTTHELAKERS scored a big upset last week and looks in line for a similar trip.

Race 10

(9) KRUSTY THE CLOWN just missed last week from a very tough spot. (6) DONTGETBYME looks to be going the wrong way on paper but is in significantly weaker; use caution. (5) WILLIWIN has just been racing evenly; use underneath.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mohawk: Saturday 7/16 Analysis
By Garnet Barnsdale

DRF HARNESS

Race 1 - $30,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool


PICK 5: 3,4,9/3,4/2,3,6/3,6,10/5,6 = $21.60

EARLY PICK 4: 3,6,10/5,6/2,3,7/3,4,10 = $54

LATE PICK 4: 4,5/8/1,4,8/2,5,8,9,10 = $30

MEET STATS: 207 - 615 / $1084.50 BEST BETS: 35 - 57 / $111.90

SPOT PLAYS: 11 - 56 / $56.40

Best Bet: MAGNUM J (9th)

Spot Play: POISONOUS (11th)


Race 1

(4) LOVETHEWAYYOULOOK debuts for the Weller barn in what looks like a wide-open race; slight nod on the barn change angle. (9) MISS COCO LUCK scratched sick last week when she was scheduled to drop to this lowest conditioned level. She was my Best Bet that night but now I am a bit leery with the time off and outer post. (3) SHELLYSSILVERMOON should contend at this level and will likely be pushed early to get a spot near the front; using. (1) CALL IT COURAGE is usually close when racing in this class but she has a poor win record.

Race 2

(4) CAPRICE HILL tuned up for this with a sharp qualifier on July 5th and she is quite simply the fastest filly in here when she is right. (3) WANAKA closed sharply last time in mixed company and appears to be the main threat to the choice, if one exists. (5) EMOTICON HANOVER has been on a pretty good roll but she would need to trot considerably faster here to threaten the choice. (6) DEWDLE ALL DAY will be closing late for a smaller share here.

Race 3

(2) ROYAL CHARM has shown gameness closing to win her last two starts and she might be a better price here stepping into stakes action for the first time; top call. (3) DOTTIE was patiently driven to a win that was easier than it looks on paper and she should be a top contender here. (6) TYMAL TEMPEST's barn change paid immediate dividends last start. Toss her on Pick 5 tickets. (4) CATCH A MISSION improved last time and was only nailed late in the mile by the choice. She's not out of this contentious OSS Gold dash.

Race 4

(3) MUCH ADOO left hard last time then followed along once overtaken for the lead but she could not bridge the gap on the leader late. Dropping in class here gives her a good chance to score. (6) DELIGHTFUL HILL was the first leader in that same mile, took a big shuffle then finished willingly. Toss her on your multi-race tickets. (10) MAPLELEA was cleverly driven to a win from the same post last week and is in great from but you know she will likely need to pass them all again here. (1) BET YA should work out a trip for a share here.

Race 5

(6) ALEXAS JACKPOT had no shot last time coming from last after a moderate first 1/2 was cut. He is capable of much better vs. these and can get into the race earlier. (5) NIRVANA SEELSTER loves Mohawk and can't be left alone on the lead too long or he will be tough to overhaul. (3) AMERICAN VIRGIN can take a good share here if he minds his manners this time. (4) ARTHUR BLUE CHIP moves up off a solid win but may have trouble making the front here - which is where he does his best work.

Race 6

(3) GRIN FOR MONEY meets easier here and there appears to be plenty of early speed lined up to set up his late charge; top call. (2) YOURE MY HERO is another that can benefit from a slowing late pace here; using. (7) JENKINS CREEK is on top of his game and doesn't need the lead to win. He merits inclusion here as he could ride a pocket trip to the winners circle. (8) C S EYE meets tougher here and could get strung out early in the mile; minor share predicted.

Race 7

(4) THE DARK SHADOW broke while on the move last time as a big chalk. He can make amends here if he stays flat. (10) CALVIN K has been perfect so far and is an obvious one to include on Pick 4 tickets despite his post. (3) PLAY FOR GOLD showed grit and determination digging in to notch his maiden win in his debut. He's another to consider for Pick 4 bets. (1) YOGI BAYAMA closed sharply to win in his second start and is yet another contender to consider here.

Race 8

(4) SPORTS COLUMN was an impressive winner in his 2nd start and should prove tough to beat again here off that sharp score. (5) HAPPY TRIO wasn't far behind the choice last time and he could get a similar trip here and complete the exacta. (1) MC MACH was a sharp debut winner vs. Grassroots competition. His rivals here could prove to be considerably tougher. (6) BIG BAD BILL looks best of the rest here.

Race 9

(8) MAGNUM J was the easiest kind of winner vs. similar last time and he will take some beating here. (5) NVESTMENT BLUE CHIP escaped late to close for a non-threatening 2nd to the choice and he could complete another chalky exacta here. (6) INSPIRATION VIEW has been racing well vs. lesser but will likely find the top two tough to beat here. (3) VORACITY can follow along for a share here again.

Race 10

(4) THUNDER STEELER was never in danger last week while leading all the way and he could take another while in good form. (1) MOHAWK WARRIOR takes a substantial class drop and is the obvious danger. (8) COOL ROCK will be winding up from the back turning home and would benefit if any dueling develops down the backside. (6) SHADOW PLACE is in solid form but he seems more likely to nab a smaller share here.

Race 11

(9) POISONOUS was given little chance last time the way he was driven. Perhaps he leaves this time which could result in a win at a square price. (5) WICHITA LINEMAN couldn't chase down a leader that stole a slow first 1/2 last week but he remains in good form and is a big threat here. (2) CAJON THOMAS looks well-prepped to contend immediately following a break; using. (8) DERECHO can leave for position and stick around for a small share and (10) TEDDYS SUPER TOY can close from the back and fill one of the lower exotics rungs.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Meadowlands: Saturday 7/16 Analysis
By Derick Giwner

DRF HARNESS

Race 3 - $30,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

Race 5 - $40,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Race 9 - $75,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Race 12 - $267,769 Jackpot Hi Five Mandatory Payout

CHAMPIONSHIP MEET STATS: 89 - 235 / $500.20 (+$30.20) BEST BETS: 12 - 20 / $32.10 (-7.90)

Best Bet: SOUTHWIND FRANK (4th)

Spot Play: ASHLEY’S HUSBAND (5th)


Race 1

(2) MISS TEZSLA has yet to prove she has the pure speed to go with the top 3-year-old fillies, but this is clearly the weaker Del Miller division and I do believe she will move up on a bigger track. (6) WOMANS WILL should be headed to the front and is the obvious horse to beat. (4) HAUGHTY has some ability but I haven’t been thrilled with what she has shown so far this year.

Race 2

(5) BLUE MOON STRIDE proved in the Lynch Final at Pocono that she can go with the best sophomore pacing fillies in the sport. She gets another tough test from (2) L A DELIGHT, last year’s Canadian Champion 2-year-old filly, but I’m giving her the edge as this is her home track. The latter looks tough on paper and seems like a must-use on multi-race tickets. (3) SHEZAREALDEAL doesn’t quite seem ready to go with the top pair, but is one to keep an eye on down the road.

Race 3

(3) ALL THE TIME wasn’t at her best last week yet still took care of business. I have to assume that trainer Jimmy Takter has made some minor adjustments and will have her ready. (6) BROADWAY DONNA meets up with the top choice for the first time in her career. Both have talent, speed and class; something has to give. (2) CELEBRITY EVENTSY needs to prove herself versus the best in the division.

Race 4

(5) SOUTHWIND FRANK rolled along as he pleased in the Beal Final and seems highly likely to take charge once again. The early Hambo favorite seems to be in the weaker Dancer split overall. (9) TROLLEY had to open some eyes with a solid second behind the top choice in the Beal. With this being a 1-1/8 distance race, he should be able to fire off the gate and gain valuable position. (4) WAITLIFTER K goes out for a new trainer and adds Brian Sears to the team in the bike. It isn’t farfetched to think improvement is possible. (2) DOG GONE LUCKY has Hambletonian aspirations but wasn’t exactly on his game last time.

Race 5

When (2) ASHLEY’S HUSBAND makes it to this NW11500 level, he is almost an auto-bet. I wouldn’t say he faces a soft field, but he should win nonetheless. (4) WESTERN FAME has some ability and in some ways he gets class relief coming out of the Hempt Final. David Miller is back in the bike and won convincingly with him at Philly. (6) MAJOR WAR has big speed and should play a role in the race. (9) BETTOR ROCK ON N has been facing tough company out of town and lured Tetrick to the team; price player.

Race 6

In a wide open Miss Versatility, I’ll try (1) RULES OF THE ROAD. Her fastest miles have been over this track and she has the high early speed needed to gain valuable position from the inside post. 8) JEWELS IN HOCK has done very well in this series thus far. (2) SMOKINMOMBO has early speed and form. Is she fast enough? (6) BARN DOLL hasn’t been her best so far this year but has the ability to step up.

Race 7

(9) BAR HOPPING wasn’t going anywhere from post nine in the Beal Final as Southwind Frank controlled the tempo. While Hambletonian Day is the ultimate goal, I expect we’ll see an aggressive drive in this spot. (5) MILLIGAN’S SCHOOL has some ability but also tends to make mistakes. If he behaves, I see him sitting a good trip near the lead. (6) MARION MARAUDER was sort of taking a tour of the oval when the Red Sea parted and he surged to victory. That said, this guy has plenty of talent and can certainly win. (3) BLENHEIM ships down from Canada for good trotting connections and could get a piece.

Race 8

(3) ART HISTORY was kept along the cones rather than pull first-over and that clearly cost him a chance at winning last week. I expect off his sharp second-place finish we’ll see him take a shot at the lead. (4) EL BLOOMBITO raced reasonably well last time and should be ready for a peak effort in his third race of the year. (7) ITRUSTYOU has a two-race winning streak but faces tougher. (9) JACKSRLUCKYTOO has been a check machine; tough post tonight.

Race 9

(10) WIGGLE IT JIGGLEIT tries to get the best of Always B Miki for the first time this year and must overcome post 10 to succeed. The good news is this is a 1-1/8 mile race where the run into the first turn is much longer and he should have no problem getting position. Hopefully he will be on the lead or in the pocket. While I believe (5) ALWAYS B MIKI is probably a tick faster, I have to take the price on WIJI until I see him lose to MIKI off a good trip. MIKI has been spectacular all year and is an obvious 3-5 favorite in this spot. (12) ALL BETS OFF has proven he can pace fast enough to compete and you can’t really fault him for a dull effort last time from an outside post at Pocono. (7) FREAKY FEET PETE is impossible to knock, but he has come up short behind one of the top pair in each of his last two starts. (3) DEALT A WINNER makes his fourth start of the year and could be ready for more with the right trip.

Race 10

(3) WINGS OF ROYALTY made a sharp move in the Graduate Final but came up short in the late stages. That said, he had missed four weeks of action prior to that start and should be tighter now. Plus Sears jumps into the bike, which is almost always a plus. (4) HANNELORE HANOVER was supplemented to this race for $50,000, so you know the connections think she has a chance. It is hard not to be impressed with her recent form; clear player. (9) MUSICAL RHYTHM also comes off a sharp performance last time. Will the removal of Lasix hurt his chances? (2) CENTURION ATM has found his groove over the last few weeks. The ability is there with this guy if he is ready to live up to his potential.

Race 11

The Meadowlands Pace appears to come down to a close call between (3) CONTROL THE MOMENT and (4) RACING HILL. For me, the former gets the edge due to an expected tactical edge from drawing inside. Additionally, I don’t expect a conservative steer this week. Racing Hill swept the Hempt elim and Final easily enough and should prove a formidable foe for the top choice. (8) JK WILL POWER is not in the same league as the top pair but has displayed a keen knack for gaining early position and hanging around for fat checks. (6) BOSTON RED ROCKS has disappointed this year. The only way I could consider backing him is if I knew driver Tim Tetrick was going to leave as hard as this colt can.

Race 12

(5) LADY SHADOW is a speedy daughter of Shadow Play that has reeled off three straight wins and reunites with driver Yannick Gingras, who steered her to a lifetime mark of 1:48 1/5 two starts back. She has speed, form, class, post and driver in her corner. (3) DIVINE CAROLINE has proven class, speed and talent but only recently seems to be acclimating to life as an older mare. If she continues on her recent pattern, she can get involved at a nice price. (2) VENUS DELIGHT has been one of the best mares in the sport for a few years now. I can see her being the second choice, but she seems to have morphed into more of a trip horse this year and I wasn’t thrilled with her qualifier even though she won. I’m using her but not loving her. (11) SOLAR SISTER has been racing well and gets a very enticing driver change to Brian Sears. The big issue is post 11, where she will start behind Fashion Showdown. It’s your call as to whether you think the trip can work out; playable in all spots. (12) ANNDROVETTE has been the top older pacing mare seemingly every year but has struggled a bit more often as she gets up in age. Now a 9-year-old, she still has what it takes if given the right trip and Tim Tetrick did chose to drive her over Venus Delight. (8) FROST DAMAGE BLUES gets her first test of the year after winning consecutive starts versus conditioned foes. With 9 wins in 12 career starts, she clearly knows her way to the winner’s circle. I wouldn’t be shocked if she won, but I’m leaning against using her in the top two spots. (10) KATIE SAID has the talent to win but has lacked early speed in her races. From post 10 that places her in a bad spot. If driver Brett Miller changes tactics and this mare responds, she can win. If you are playing the $267,769 Mandatory Payout Jackpot Hi-5, my ticket costs $115.20: 5 / 2,3,11,12 / 2,3,8,11,12 / 2,3,4,6,8,10,11,12 / 2-8,10,11,12

Race 13

(6) J EAGLE FEATHER picked up some confidence while down in class last time and can build on that momentum. (3) HOPE FOR BADLANDS drops down to a level where he is very comfortable; obvious player. (4) GRATIAS DEO is another class-dropper that should have a say in the outcome. (10) GET OUTTA EYRE N & (9) INTHEBLINKOFANEYE have the ability to win if they can revert to their form from earlier this year.