Saturday 6/20/15 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

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[superbeets]

European U21 Championship TODAY 17:00

Serbia U21

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Czech Rep. U21

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		6/4	9/4	9/5	More markets

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RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT ALL VENUES	RECENT FORM
–-–-–-–-–-ND​ Most recent​	Unknown	–-–-–-–-–-NL​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Czech Republic have won two of their last ten matches

EXPERT VERDICT: Serbia’s youngsters put in a very confident display against ante-post tournament favourites Germany and were worth their 1-1 draw which suggests they should beat Czech Republic. The hosts started well in their opener, but were ripped apart by Denmark in the second half and could be heading for an early exit.

RECOMMENDATION: Serbia
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[superbeets]

European U21 Championship TODAY 19:45

Germany U21

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Denmark U21

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		17/20	13/5	3	More markets

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RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT ALL VENUES	RECENT FORM
–-–-–-–-–-ND​ Most recent​	Unknown	–-–-–-–-–-NW​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Denmark scored the most goals (38) in the qualifying group stage

EXPERT VERDICT: We saw the best and worst of Denmark in their 2-1 win over Czech Republic on Wednesday. The Danes were dodgy at the back, particularly in the first half before their star-studded attacking department turned on the style after the break and they possess the tools to hurt Germany in the final third.

RECOMMENDATION: Both teams to score
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[superbeets]

Copa America TODAY 20:00

Uruguay

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Paraguay

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RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT ALL VENUES	RECENT FORM
HDAWAWHWNWAL​ Most recent​	1 - 1 1 - 1 3 - 0 2 - 0	ALADNLHDNDHW​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Uruguay have scored one goal or fewer in six of their last seven competitive fixtures

EXPERT VERDICT: Uruguay are struggling to cope with the absence of suspended striker Luis Suarez and a lack of firepower may hamper their chances of beating Paraguay in La Serena. The Copa America brought the best out of Paraguay four years ago and they are playing well enough to seal a second successive victory.

RECOMMENDATION: Paraguay
1

 

[superbeets]

Copa America TODAY 22:30

Argentina

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Jamaica

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RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT ALL VENUES	RECENT FORM
NLNWNWHWNDHW​ Most recent​	2 - 1 5 - 0	HWHDHWHWNLAL​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Jamaica have won just two of their last 19 competitive matches

EXPERT VERDICT: Jamaica have kept things respectable in their opening two games – losing 1-0 to Uruguay and Paraguay – but are likely to be swept aside by Argentina in Vina del Mar. Argentina have not reached their peak but the 1-0 win over Uruguay was an important stepping stone and they will be looking for further improvement against the Reggae Boyz.

RECOMMENDATION: Argentina to win 4-0
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[superbeets]

European U21 Championship Su 21Jun 17:00

Sweden U21

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England U21

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		16/5	5/2	17/20	More markets

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RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT ALL VENUES	RECENT FORM
–-–-–-–-–-NW​ Most recent​	3 - 3	–-–-–-–-–-NL​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Sweden have kept just two clean sheets in their last 15 competitive fixtures

EXPERT VERDICT: Sweden were overjoyed to defeat Italy 2-1 despite playing over half of the match with ten men but may be feeling mentally and physically tired by the time they face England in Olomouc. Losing 1-0 to Portugal was a poor start for Gareth Southgate’s Young Lions but they have their easiest two group matches to come.

RECOMMENDATION: England
3

 

[superbeets]

European U21 Championship Su 21Jun 19:45

Italy U21

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Portugal U21

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					More markets

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RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT ALL VENUES	RECENT FORM
–-–-–-–-–-NL​ Most recent​	1 - 1	–-–-–-–-–-NW​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Portugal have won 13 of their last 14 competitive matches

EXPERT VERDICT: Portugal carried over their impressive form from qualification by beating England 1-0 in their opening Group B match and can follow up with a victory over Italy in Uherske Hradiste. Italy played with a one-man advantage for over half of their match with unfancied Sweden but still slumped to a 2-1 defeat. They are unlikely to respond.

RECOMMENDATION: Portugal
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Five To Follow MLB Betting: Saturday, June 20, 2015 Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews

The Phillies are caught between a rock and hard place with ace Cole Hamels. He was supposed to start Friday but was scratched with a hamstring injury. Do you put Hamels on the disabled list, thus costing him a few starts to potentially impress scouts — the Phils absolutely want to trade him — or do you let him pitch through it and risk a potential serious injury to your top asset? “He did not feel like it was a long term thing,” Phillies manager Ryne Sandberg said of Hamels. He is 5-5 with a 2.96 ERA. By the way, entering Friday, Phillies starting pitchers have not earned a win since May 23 at Washington (Hamels, 8-1 win over Nationals).

Pirates at Nationals (-135, 6.5)

Bryce Harper is finally living up to all the hype and is your clear NL MVP, but the guy is a bit brittle and is hurt again. I’m not sure how you strain a hamstring making a throw from the outfield, but that’s what happened Thursday night as Harper took a tumble while trying to get a Rays runner out at home. The grass was wet, and that may have played a role. Harper looked like he was shot and at a minimum seems likely to miss a game or two. He was to be re-evaluated Friday. So it might be an easier Saturday afternoon for Pirates lefty Francisco Liriano (4-5, 2.94). He comes off an eight-inning, two-hit shutout over the White Sox and has a 1.29 ERA over his past five outings. Denard Span is 4-for-9 with a double off him. Anthony Rendon is 2-for-4 with an RBI. It’s Max Scherzer (7-5, 1.93) on an extra day of rest for the Nats. He pitched the game of the year last time out (yes, more impressive than the Giants’ no-hitter), a complete-game one-hitter with 16 strikeouts against Milwaukee. Scherzer lost a perfect game on a broken-bat single in the seventh. Andrew McCutchen is 4-for-14 with a homer and seven strikeouts off him.

Key trends: The Pirates are 2-8 in Liriano’s past 10 vs. teams with a winning record. The Nats are 7-2 in their past nine against lefties. The “over/under” has hit in eight of Washington’s past 12 against lefties.

Early lean: Certainly under. Go Nats.

Rays at Indians (-171, 7)

Keep an eye on whether Indians catcher Yan Gomes will be able to play here. He left Thursday’s game against the Cubs with something called cervical tightness, which sounds rather painful. Gomes was awesome last year but has really struggled and already has missed a large chunk of 2015 due to injury. Erasmo Ramirez (6-2, 4.45) gets the call for the Rays. He has won four straight starts and allowed only three total runs in them. The Rays just seem to find these pitchers from out of nowhere (he was acquired from Seattle). The Tribe’s Brandon Moss is 2-for-14 with a homer and seven strikeouts off him. Cleveland ace Corey Kluber is 3-8 despite a 3.54 ERA. He’s second in the AL in strikeouts. The Indians have lost his past three, not scoring more than two runs in any of them. David DeJesus is 3-for-9 with two doubles against him.

Key trends: The Indians are 8-1 in Kluber’s past nine against the AL East. They are 1-6 in Kluber’s past seven vs. teams with a winning record. The under is 11-1 in Kluber’s past 12 pitching on five days of rest.

Early lean: Tribe at +125 on runline, under.

Mets at Braves (+115, 7.5)

Keep an eye on whether Braves first baseman Freddie Freeman can go here. He sat out Thursday’s game with a sprained right hand, ending his big-league-best streak of 234 consecutive games played. So, yeah, I think Cal Ripken Jr.’s record is safe. Freeman doesn’t think it’s serious, so he might even play Friday. Terrific Mets rookie Noah Syndergaard (2-4, 3.76) starts this one. He was excellent last time out, holding the high-powered Blue Jays to a run and two hits over six innings, striking out a career-high 11. He has never faced Atlanta. Braves rookie Williams Perez (3-0, 2.29) is much less-heralded but has been even better. He hasn’t allowed an earned run over his past three outings. One of those was an inning of scoreless relief when Williams got a save vs. the Mets.

Key trends: The Braves are 5-0 in their past five on Saturday. The under is 5-1-1 in Syndergaard’s past seven overall. The over is 6-1 in Atlanta’s past seven on Saturday.

Early lean: Under again and take a shot with Braves as long as Freeman plays.

Astros at Mariners (+107, 6.5)

Fine pitching matchup here. Houston starts ace left-hander Dallas Keuchel (8-2, 2.04), who is certainly in contention to start the All-Star Game. The Astros have lost two of his past three, but all three were quality starts. This is his first look at Seattle this season. Nelson Cruz is 5-for-10 with a homer and three RBIs vs. Keuchel. Mark Trumbo is 4-for-7 with two triples, a homer and five RBIs. Mariners 22-year-old right-hander Taijuan Walker (4-6, 5.00) doesn’t have great numbers but is starting to show why he was such a highly-regarded prospect. He has had four straight quality starts, allowing a total of five runs. He was shelled in Houston on May 2, allowing eight runs and three homers in three innings. George Springer is 2-for-6 with a homer against him.

Key trends: The Astros are 6-2 in Keuchel’s past eight on the road. The Mariners are 1-5 in Walker’s past six against teams with a winning record. The under is 5-1 in Keuchel’s past six against teams with a losing record. The over is 5-0 in Walker’s past five vs. Houston.

Early lean: Yep, under. Take Seattle.

Giants at Dodgers (-142, 7.5)

I’m not sure what the Dodgers are waiting for in promoting top prospect Corey Seager, who could play shortstop in place of a hugely struggling Jimmy Rollins. But Manager Don Mattingly said as long as Rollins stays healthy that Seager would stay in Triple-A. Carlos Frias (4-4, 4.14) starts for the Dodgers. He has alternated lousy starts with good ones, so he’s due a good one as last time he allowed four runs in 5.1 innings in Texas. He is 1-1 with a 1.23 ERA in two starts this season against the Giants. Angel Pagan is 3-for-6 with an RBI off him. Brandon Crawford has a homer in six at-bats. Giants veteran Tim Hudson (4-6, 4.65) has faced the Dodgers once this season, shutting them out over 6.1 innings. Rollins is a career .231 hitter off him with three homers in 91 at-bats. Adrian Gonzalez is 10-for-29 with two homers.

Key trends: The Giants are 1-6 in Hudson’s past seven on four days of rest. The under is 4-1 in his past five road games vs. teams with a winning record.

Early lean: Dodgers and under. Hey, it feels like a pitchers’ day.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MLB Betting Cheat Sheet: Morton making it look easy for surging Pirates
By Doc Sports

Here’s a comprehensive look at betting notes for this weekend’s major-league schedule:

Charlie in charge

The Pittsburgh Pirates are a perfect 5-0 in Charlie Morton’s five starts this season. He has turned in two consecutive performances without giving up a single run across a total of 14.1 innings against the Milwaukee Brewers and Chicago Cubs. Morton (5-0, 1.62 ERA) will get the nod on Sunday at the Washington Nationals for the Pirates, who have won seven games in a row.

The silence of the bats

The Chicago White Sox have lost six straight games and have scored a grand total of three runs in their last four. Shortstop Alexei Ramirez is batting .190 in his last six games and right fielder Avisail Garcia is 2-for-25 in his seven most recent contests.

Which Teheran?

Julio Teheran’s ERA is a bloated 5.07 ERA after he gave up six runs in 6.1 innings during the Atlanta Braves’ Tuesday loss at the Boston Red Sox. Teheran has allowed at least three runs in five consecutive starts. But he is a stellar 3-0 with a 2.77 ERA at home, which is where he will face the New York Mets on Sunday.

Pitching Notes

* Jerome Williams (hamstring) just went on the disabled list, but that may not necessarily be a bad thing for the Philadelphia Phillies. Williams (3-7, 6.43 ERA) has an 11.45 ERA in three June starts. Philadelphia has not yet named a starter to face Michael Wacha and the St. Louis Cardinals on Sunday.

* The Cleveland Indians will round out their weekend series against the visiting Tampa Bay Rays with Corey Kluber on Saturday and Trevor Bauer on Sunday. In his last eight starts, Kluber’s ERA has shrunk from 5.04 to 3.54. Bauer has six quality starts in his last seven outings and he is coming off seven innings of scoreless work at the Cubs on Tuesday.

Hitting Notes

* Following Wednesday’s action, Arizona Diamondbacks’ first baseman Paul Goldschmidt had a ridiculous six multi-hit performances in his last seven games. Goldschmidt (.360, 19 HR, 54 RBI) is hitting .396 in June and he has homered three times since last Wednesday.

* The Baltimore Orioles lost to the Philadelphia Phillies 2-1 on Thursday, but offensive struggles are aberrations—not the rules. Baltimore had previously scored at least three runs in eight straight games, including a total of 63 in those eight. Manny Machado, who accounted for his team’s lone run by going deep on Thursday, has nine multi-hit games in June and has five homers in his last eight outings.

Totals Streak

Texas Rangers (29-34-3 O/U): The under is 3-1 in the Rangers’ last four overall and 10-3 in their last 13. They have given up a total of six runs in their last three outings. Next up for Texas is a three-game set against the Chicago White Sox, who are 26-37-1 O/U.

Injury Notes

* Mets’ second baseman Daniel Murphy (.283, 4 HR, 29 RBI) has not played since June 4 because of a quadriceps injury. A weekend return had been targeted, but now New York is looking toward next Tuesday to see Murphy back in the lineup.

* Do not hold your breath for a weekend comeback by Detroit Tigers’ designated hitter Victor Martinez (.216, 1 HR, 15 RBI). The veteran has not played since May 18 due to a knee issue and he does not have a hit since May 10. Martinez is likely to join the club in the Bronx but is not expected to come off the disabled list until next week.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Oddsmakers debate Harper’s worth to the Nationals’ MLB betting odds
By Jason Logan

The Washington Nationals got a scare Thursday night when star outfielder Bryce Harper went down with an injury during the team’s 5-3 loss to the Tampa Bay Rays.

Many thought it was Harper’s left knee that was hurt but as exams would discover it was a left hamstring strain that may shelf the Nationals’ slugger for this weekend’s series versus the Pittsburgh Pirates or longer.

Being a native of Las Vegas, Harper is no stranger to the odds and when it comes to Washington’s odds without the 22 year old in the lineup, oddsmakers say the Nats could see as much as 10 cents trimmed from their moneylines.

“Harper would be worth about eight to 10 cents on the moneyline and is in the Top 6 position players as far as value to the moneyline goes,” Greg Sindall of online book SportsInteraction.

Harper is currently leading Washington in home runs (22), batting average (.344) and OPS (1.197) with 53 RBIs as of Friday. However, the most telling statistic when it comes to his value to the Nationals is his WAR (Wins Above Replacement), a number than factors the total contributions from a player. And right now, no player in the major leagues contributes more than Harper, ranked tops in baseball with a WAR of 5.17.

John Lester, lines manager for online market Bookmaker, doesn’t think Harper should be priced that high when it comes to his impact on the MLB moneyline odds. He currently has Washington set as a +106 home underdog versus Pittsburgh (-116) Friday.

“Depending on the opponent, Harper is worth between three and six cents. He would have no impact on the game total,” Lester. “He’s certainly in the Top 10, but not in the top half.”

John Avello, director of race and sports for the Wynn Las Vegas, who has closely followed the career of the hometown Harper, says it’s tough to peg any positional baseball player with a moneyline value of more than five cents.

“With these types of guys, you have to be careful with adjusting because over time he means a lot to the team but in a short time, it might not be so bad,” Avello.

“In baseball, it’s different than looking at impact in something like basketball or football,” he adds. “In basketball, you might say LeBron James is worth 10 points to their spread or Peyton Manning is worth 10 points to the spread. Those guys are responsible for 50 percent of their team’s offense, if not more. In baseball, you have nine guys all responsible for the offense.”

So, just who are the big movers-and-shakers when it comes to the MLB moneylines, looking at position players only? Harper is mentioned among names like Miguel Cabrera, Prince Fielder, Mike Trout, Andrew McCutchen, Giancarlo Stanton, Evan Longoria, Buster Posey, and Nelson Cruz, with nods to Paul Goldschmidt and Jose Bautista.

“Trout and Miggy are clearly the top two, outside of pitchers of course,” says Mick Sloan of online book GTBets, who puts Cabrera at the top of the list with an impact of as much as 12 cents. “But as far as who will have a greater impact on the line, I would say that Miggy is the tops.”

“Miguel Cabrera is still top dog,” agrees Sindall, who prices the Detroit Tigers slugger’s moneyline worth between 10 and 12 cents.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

UFC Fight Night 69: Jedrzejczyk vs Penne
by Freddy Wander

UFC Fight Night 69: Jedrzejczyk vs Penne

Saturday, June 20th – 3:00 p.m. ET
Berlin, Germany
Joanna Jedrzejczyk (9-0-0) vs. Jessica Penne (12-3-0)

Women’s Strawweight Title Bout
Line: N/A
The undefeated fighter and current Strawweight Champion, Joanna Jedrzejczyk, puts her title on the line against Jessica Penne at UFC Fight Night 69 in Germany.

Jedrzejczyk gets to stay in Europe to defend her belt as she has yet to lose a match in her young career. The 27-year-old made her way to the UFC circuit in mid-2014 and has fought three times; winning twice after going a full three rounds by decision and took down the title with knockout punches against Carla Esparza in March of this year. She was a Muay Thai champion in International Federation of Muay Thai Amateur, winning the gold each year from 2009-2013 and has used those skills to dominate in the octagon. Fight Matrix has her listed as the No. 2 women’s strawweight fighter, sitting only behind Jessica Aguilar, and the Polish-born competitor is considered the sixth-best pound-for-pound women fighter. She will get Jessica Penne in her first defense of the title and the 5’5”, 115-pound fighter just made her return back to the strawweight class in her last fight and was able to take down Ronda Markos in a split decision, earning “Fight of the Night” honors in the process. It was her UFC debut as most of her recent bouts were for Invicta where she was the Atomweight Champion. A majority of Penne’s victories come on the mat as the Huntington Beach, CA native has earned seven of her 12 wins via submission thanks to her experience in Brazilian jiu-jitsu.

Jedrzejczyk has dominated in two of her three UFC matches to start her career there, out striking Esparaza and Juliana Lima 99-22 and getting 3.49 significant strikes per minute overall. There was some controversy in her second win in this circuit, though, when a split decision went her way in the fight with Claudia Gadelha after she outhit her opponent 38-27, but was taken down seven times with one submission attempt against. Many thought that it was Gadelha’s fight, but the decision went to Jedrzejczyk and was able to go for the title as a result. Her defense has been phenomenal in her three UFC fights, allowing opponents to get in a mere 1.25 significant strikes per minute as she deflects 71% of their attempts. She has yet to earn a takedown of her own in the three matches, and has defended opponents attempts at a takedown 80% of the time, but has still hit the mat a total of nine times. She will put her title at risk against a more experienced fighter, and if she has a close one like she did against Gadelha, she is sure to get a different final result.

Penne is currently ranked eighth by Fight Matrix amongst her peers in the strawweight division after winning four of her past five fights. Despite doing well in that time between UFC and Invicta, she has actually gotten in only 1.94 significant strikes per minute at a putrid 32% accuracy. Her defense has been ok, but she is taking on more hits (2.33 significant strikes per minute) than she is dishing out and is only deflecting 52% of them. Her biggest strength and the key to winning this match is getting her opponents on the mat and then coming away with a submission. She has nine takedowns in her last five fights and has an overall takedown percentage of 42%. Penne does all her dirty work once getting her opposition down and in her most recent victory over Markos was able to get eight passes, a deciding factor in the final decision. Penne will need to put Jedrzejczyk on the floor early, because if she lets the fight go deep, she will likely take too many hits and not have a chance.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MLB

Today's games
Pirates @ Nationals
Liriano is 3-1, 1.29 in his last five starts; over is 4-1-1 in his last six.

Scherzer is 5-2, 1.78 in his last seven starts; five of his last six stayed under.

Pirates won eight of last nine games, allowing eleven runs (five shutouts)- 11 of their last 12 games stayed under. Pittsburgh lost its last five games with Nationals; home side won eight of last nine series games. Washington lost three of last five games; over is 6-3-1 in their last ten.

Cardinals @ Phillies
Lackey is 4-2, 2.21 in his last seven starts that weren't in Denver; eight of his last ten starts stayed under.

Harang is 0-5, 6.37 in his last five starts; under is 5-3 in his last nine.

Phillies lost ten of last 11 games; six of their last nine stayed under total. Cardinals won seven of last ten games with Philly; over is 5-2-1 in last eight series games. St Louis lost four of its last six road games; eight of their last nine games overalll stayed under the total.

Marlins @ Reds
Koehler is 1-1, 6.35 in his last three road starts; under is 4-1-1 in his last six starts overall.

Former Marlin DeSclafani is 3-0, 2.76 in his last five starts.

Reds are 9-2 in last ten home games- four of last six overall stayed under. Miami lost eight of last 11 games with Cincinnati; road team won eight of 11 games- under is 5-2-1 in last eight. Marlins are 5-12 in last 17 road games.

Mets @ Braves
Syndergaard is 0-3, 8.22 in his three road starts; five of his last six starts went under the total.

Perez is 3-0, 1.80 in his last four starts.

Mets won six of last eight games with Atlanta; nine of last 11 series games went over. NY is 3-14 in its last 17 road games- their last five games overall stayed under total. Braves are 4-5 in their last eight games; over is 5-3-1 in those nine games.

Brewers @ Rockies
Lohse is 0-4, 8.31 in his last five starts, four of which went over.

Bettis is 0-2, 5.63 in his last three starts; five of his last seven went over.

Brewers lost four of last five games with Colorado; five of last six went over; they lost six of last seven games overall, outscored 44-22- seven of their last nine games went over the total. Rockies lost nine of last ten games, with last five going over.

Padres @ Diamondbacks
Ross is 1-4, 4.63 in his last six starts.

Ray is 2-1, 1.09 in his four starts, three of which stayed under.

Padres are 1-4 since changing managers- three of five games went over. San Diego won four of last seven games with Arizona; seven of last 11 series games went over. D'backs won six of last eight games, with seven of eight staying under the total.

Giants @ Dodgers
Hudson is 1-1, 8.21 in his last four road starts; under is 4-2-1 in his last seven starts overall.

Frias is 0-2, 4.82 in his last three starts; three of his last four stayed under.

Giants won ten of last 11 games with Dodgers; home side won nine of last 11 series games- six of last nine stayed under total. SF lost six of last nine games overall; six of their last eight went under total. Dodgers lost four of last five games; five of last seven went under total. LA scored 17 runs in their last seven games.

American League
Tigers @ Bronx
Simon is 3-1, 3.42 in his last four starts; three of his last four road starts went over the total.

Eovaldi gave up eight runs in 0.2 IP at Miami Monday; he is 2-0, 2.33 in his last three home starts- his last six starts overall went over total.

Detroit lost seven of last ten games with Bronx; four of last six stayed under total. Tigers lost four of last six games overall- their last four road games went over. Bronx won ten of its last 11 home games.

Orioles @ Blue Jays
Gausman is making first '15 start; he allowed seven runs in 12 IP in his eight relief appearances this year. He is 11-12, 4.42 in big leagues, making 25 starts.

Buehrle is 2-0, 2.32 in his last four starts; under is 4-1-1 in his last six.

Baltimore lost six of last eight games with Toronto; over is 6-3-1 in last ten series games. Orioles won eight of last 11 games; over is 6-3 in O's last nine games. Blue Jays won 14 of last 16 games; four of last five stayed under.

Rays @ Indians
Ramirez is 4-0, 1.16 in his last four starts (under 3-0-1).

Kluber is 0-3, 3.60 in his last three starts; five of his last seven stayed under- Tribe scored five runs in his last three starts.

Tampa Bay lost three of last five games with Cleveland; Rays won seven of last eight games overall-- over is 5-3-1 in their last nine. Indians are 4-4 in last eight games.

Red Sox @ Royals
Porcello is 0-5, 6.97 in his last five starts; last three stayed under.

Volquez is 4-1, 3.00 in his last six starts; three of his last four went over.

Red Sox won seven of last eight games with Kansas City; four of last five went over the total. Boston lost eight of last 11 overall; over is 5-2-2 in their last nine. Royals won eight of last 11; four of their last five went over.

Rangers @ White Sox
Martinez is 1-0, 2.08 in his last two starts; three of his last four stayed under.

Rodon is 2-0, 1.50 in his three home starts (under 2-1).

Texas won five of last six games with the White Sox; over is 5-4-1 in last ten series games. Rangers won six of last eight games; five of their last six went under. Chicago was outscored 36-15 in losing last eight games; five of their last six stayed under- last night's loss especially stung.

Angels @ A's
Weaver is 0-3, 7.08 in his last three starts; three of his last four went over.

Hahn is 2-0, 3.12 in his last three starts; his last four went over.

Oakland won four of its last six games; five of those six went over total. but A's lost five of last six against the Angels- six of last seven series games went over total. Halos won three of last four games; three of the four stayed under.

Astros @ Mariners
Keuchel is 2-1, 2.20 in his last four starts; five of his last six stayed under.

Walker is 3-1, 1.55 in his last four starts, three of which stayed under.

Astros won eight of last 11 games with Seattle; five of last six went over the total. Houston won five of last six games, scoring 45 runs; seven of their last eight went over the total. Mariners lost five of their last nine games, four of their last five stayed under total.

Interleague
Cubs @ Twins
Lester is 0-3, 5.40 in his last four starts; five of his last seven stayed under.

May is 2-2, 3.19 in his last five starts, four of which stayed under.

Cubs lost eight of last ten games with Minnesota; last four series games went over total. Chicago lost three of last four games; four of its last six stayed under. Twins won last three games; five of their last six stayed under total.

Win-loss records this year for team with this starting pitcher:
Pitt-Wsh-- Liriano 4-9; Scherzer 8-5
StL-Phil-- Lackey 7-6; Harang 5-9
Mia-Cin-- Koehler 7-6; DeSclafani 7-6
NY-Atl-- Syndergaard 3-4; Perez 4-2
Mil-Col-- Lohse 5-9; Bettis 5-2
SD-Az-- Ross 5-9; Ray 2-2
SF-LA-- Hudson 6-7; Frias 4-5

Det-NY-- Simon 8-4; Eovaldi 7-6
Balt-Tor-- Gausman 0-0; Buehrle 8-5
TB-Clev-- Ramirez 7-2; Kluber 3-11
Bos-KC-- Porcello 6-7; Volquez 9-4
Tex-Chi-- Martinez 9-4; Rodon 4-3
LAA-A's-- Weaver 6-8; Hahn 5-8
Hst-Sea-- Keuchel 10-4; Walker 5-8

Cubs-Min-- Lester 7-6; May 6-6

Times this starting pitcher allowed a run in first inning:
Pitt-Wsh-- Liriano 2-13; Scherzer 1-13
StL-Phil-- Lackey 3-13; Harang 4-14
Mia-Cin-- Koehler 1-13; DeSclafani 2-13
NY-Atl-- Syndergaard 2-7; Perez 2-6
Mil-Col-- Lohse 6-14; Bettis 2-7
SD-Az-- Ross 4-14; Ray 0-4
SF-LA-- Hudson 4-13; Frias 3-9

Det-NY-- Simon 1-12; Eovaldi 6-13
Balt-Tor-- Gausman 0-0; Buehrle 7-13
TB-Clev-- Ramirez 3-9; Kluber 7-14
Bos-KC-- Porcello 2-13; Volquez 3-13
Tex-Chi-- Martinez 2-13; Rodon 2-7
LAA-A's-- Weaver 3-14; Hahn 4-13
Hst-Sea-- Keuchel 3-14; Walker 3-13

Cubs-Min-- Lester 5-13; May 4-12

Umpires
Pitt-Wsh-- Favorites won last six Muchlinski games.
NY-Atl-- Five of last six Wendelstedt games stayed under.
Mia-Cin-- Home side won last five Barksdale games.
Mil-Col-- Under is 3-1-1 in last five Eddings games.
StL-Phil-- Under is 8-3-1 in Carapazza games.
SF-LA-- Four of last five Guccione games went over.
SD-Az-- Seven of last ten Hirschbeck games stayed under.

Balt-Tor-- Favorites won seven of last eight Morales games.
Tex-Chi-- Last four Cuzzi games stayed under the total.
LA-A's--- Six of last nine GGibson games stayed under.
TB-Clev-- Underdogs won seven of last eight Everitt games.
Bos-KC-- Four of last five Dreckman games stayed under.
Det-NY-- Five of last seven Estabrook games went over.
Hst-Sea-- Over is 4-2-1 in last seven HGibson games.

Chi-Min-- Underdogs are 6-4 in last ten Gonzalez games.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

U.S. Open Odds - 3rd Round

Chambers Bay is proving to be a stiff test this weekend but a couple golfers have played consistently on both Thursday and Friday.

After 36 holes, Jordan Spieth and Patrick Reed sit at 5-under 135. They are only two of five golfers to shoot under par (70) in each of the first two rounds.

Spieth entered this weekend as the second betting choice at 17/2 oods. He’s currently a 7/4 favorite (Bet $100 to win $175) to win his second major of the season.

Reed, known for his confidence, was listed as high as a 50/1 choice before the tournament and now odds listed at 5/1.

Dustin Johnson, the co-leader after the first round, sits at 4-under 136 as has 4/1 odds to win the U.S. Open.

Pre-tournament favorite Rory McIlroy sits nine shots (+4) off the lead and has odds listed at 60/1 to rally for the victory.

Another notable name is Phil Mickelson, who is struggled on Friday as is eight shots (+3) behind the leaders.

Those looking to take a shot with "Lefty" can get a 100/1 return.

Odds to win 2015 U.S. Open

Jordan Spieth 7/4
Dustin Johnson 4/1
Patrick Reed 5/1
Branden Grace 15/1
Henrik Stenson 20/1
Ben Martin 25/1
J.B. Holmes 25/1
Jason Day 25/1
Tony Finau 25/1
Joost Luiten 30/1
Kevin Kisner 50/1
Daniel Summerhays 60/1
Matt Kuchar 60/1
Rory McIlroy 60/1
Shane Lowry 60/1
Adam Scott 80/1
Hideki Matsuyama 80/1
Justin Rose 80/1
Alexander Levy 100/1
Brandt Snedeker 100/1
Jason Dufner 100/1
Phil Mickelson 100/1
Paul Casey 125/1
Jamie Lovemark 150/1
Andres Romero 300/1
Brian Campbell 300/1
Cameron Smith 300/1


Odds Subject to Change

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Day finishes round after collapsing on final hole
By THE SPORTS XCHANGE

UNIVERSITY PLACE, Wash. -- A dizzy spell while walking to the green on the ninth hole at Chambers Bay on Friday afternoon sent Jason Day to the ground and a grandstand full of spectators into shock at the 115th U.S. Open.

Day was walking toward his ball in the bunker of the par-3 ninth hole when he fell to his left with his head hitting the ground hard. The crowd gasped as the Australian lay motionless.

It initially appeared that Day might have slipped on the fescue grass that has proved difficult to negotiate for fans, players and caddies. However, Day told Greg Norman of Fox Sports, "I've got vertigo. I'll be OK."

Day was attended to by medical staff for several minutes before getting up rather shakily. He chose to finish his round, splashing out of the bunker before two-putting for bogey and a par 70. At 2 under, he was likely to make the 36-hole cut.

"Jason was diagnosed to have suffered from benign positional vertigo," said his agent, Bud Martin, on Friday evening. "He was treated locally by Dr. Robert Stoecker and Dr. Charles Souliere and is resting comfortably.

"His condition is being monitored closely and he is hopeful he will be able to compete this weekend in the final rounds of the U.S. Open. He wants to thank all who treated him at the Franciscan Medical Group and thank all of the fans and friends who have reached out to he and his family."

Jason Spieth, playing in the same threesome as Day, said as far as he knew there was no indication that Day was having any medical difficulty.

"It wasn't mentioned by him earlier in the round to me," Spieth said. "He may have mentioned it to Colin (caddie Colin Swatton), but I was walking with him, the next thing I know I turned around and I think he got dizzy and slipped and fell.

"So at that point, how can we help him out and kind of clear the scene and try and keep the cameras off and let him just rebound from being dizzy. That's all it was, I think.

"I don't think it was a slip off of the ground. I think it was maybe a little dehydration or something. I'm not really sure. He didn't mention much after the round. We were trying to look out for him."

Day, a three-time PGA Tour winner, previously dealt with vertigo symptoms. He withdrew from the AT&T Byron Nelson in May after experiencing dizziness during a practice round.

Coming into this week, Day said he and his advisers had been unable to figure out what might be triggering the dizziness. He has undergone several sleep studies but hasn't been given a definitive answer.

Tiger Woods, who was on the ninth tee waiting to play his final hole of the Grand Slam event, was an eyewitness.

"I didn't know what happened, but knew he was laying down there," Woods said. "I know he didn't play in Dallas this year because of vertigo. I played with him at the Memorial and we talked about it in depth and he did a lot of blood panel and all that stuff. I hope he's OK. I'll call him as soon as I'm done here and see if he's all right.

"He's one of my really close friends."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

StatFox Super Situations

WNBA | WASHINGTON at INDIANA
Play Over - Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 140 good 3 point shooting team - making >=33% of their attempts, in June games
61-30 over the last 5 seasons. ( 67.0% | 28.0 units )

WNBA | CHICAGO at SAN ANTONIO
Play On - Road favorites vs. the money line (CHICAGO) after going over the total by 18 or more points total in their last three games, on Saturday games
30-7 since 1997. ( 81.1% | 0.0 units )

WNBA | WASHINGTON at INDIANA
Play Under - Road teams where the first half total is between 65.5 and 70.5 points vs. division opponents
549-361 since 1997. ( 60.3% | 151.9 units )
7-3 this year. ( 70.0% | 3.7 units )

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Pitchers to Watch - AL
By Joe Nelson

AL Starting Pitcher Rankings – through 6.18.15

Starting pitching is critical to the result of any baseball game and there are many ways to evaluate the numbers. Here are my current top 15 pitchers in the American League through June 18. This is an objective list based on a combination of 2015 statistics and does not factor in any of the strengths and weaknesses of the respective teams these players pitch for, nor any previous season results.

1) Chris Sale – Chicago White Sox: It was not a great April for Sale, but he has resumed his dominant ways with seven straight outstanding starts. His average Game Score this season is 63.1, but over his last seven starts, that average is incredibly 76.4. His ERA is a bit elevated at 3.01 due to one rough outing at Minnesota in April, but he has the top strikeout rate in the AL. If you take away three outings vs. the Twins, he owns a 2.12 ERA vs. the rest of MLB this season and he has posted 10 or more strikeouts in six of his last seven starts. Even the disappointing White Sox can find ways to win behind Sale with Chicago 8-4 behind him this season.

2) Sonny Gray, Oakland Athletics: Oakland has underachieved so far this season, but starting pitching has not been the issue with Gray leading the way with the best ERA in the AL at 1.60 and the AL’s best WHIP at 0.93. Gray has an average Game Score of nearly 66 and only twice all season has he been below 53. Gray doesn’t have quite the strikeout rate of some of the other top AL pitchers, at just over eight Ks per game and he may not be able to sustain a fortunate .249 BABIP. Gray also has also stranded over 84 percent of his base runners this season as while Gray is one of the top starters in the AL at this point, he is a candidate to slip from the top 5 by season’s end.

3) Chris Archer – Tampa Bay Rays: The Rays were expected to have a very good rotation but with Matt Moore, Drew Smyly and Alex Cobb all injured, Archer has had to carry the load. He has done that more than admirably so far this season with 11 strikeouts per nine innings and the lowest xFIP in the AL at 2.34, which is just a tick higher than his 2.18 ERA for the season, which is 3rd best in the league. Archer has posted six starts with a Game Score of 74 or higher and he has really only had one bad start all season long. The Rays are 7-1 in his last eight starts and he will be a key to keeping Tampa Bay in the AL East race all season.

4) Dallas Keuchel – Houston Astros: Keuchel had a great start to the 2014 season before fading a bit in the second half and keeping Houston on top of the AL West will depend on his impressive left arm with the rest of the rotation somewhat suspect for the Astros. Keuchel owns the 2nd best ERA and WHIP in the AL at 2.04 and 0.95 respectively and he has averaged over seven innings per start with currently the biggest innings workload in the AL. After starting the season 8-1 behind Keuchel, Houston is only 2-3 in his last five starts and with a low BABIP of .232 and a FIP much higher than his ERA, he is a candidate to decline in the second half again in 2015. Keuchel is striking out fewer than seven batters per nine innings which puts him well behind most of the other pitchers on this list in that measure.

5) Felix Hernandez – Seattle Mariners: A brutal recent outing against the Astros has bumped Hernandez down a few notches in what has otherwise been a brilliant season on the mound. Seattle has been a disappointing team but Hernandez leads the AL with 10 wins and he has very impressive numbers across the board. Hernandez has posted seven starts with a Game Score of 71 or higher this season, featuring a Median Game Score of nearly 70. Hernandez certainly has the most proven track record of the top pitchers on this list and could climb back to the top, though with a disappointing offense behind him backing, Hernandez at often inflated prices can be risky.

6) David Price – Detroit Tigers: While the Tigers have had mediocre results following a hot first two weeks of the season, Price is delivering another fine season. Price owns a 1.11 WHIP with a 2.50 ERA, both top 8 marks in the AL. Price is not producing dominant strikeout numbers like he has in past seasons, but he remains a strong option on the mound while not commanding quite as high prices as he did last season after joining a top AL contending Tigers team. Price has five starts with a Game Score of 76 or higher this season though he has also had a few clunkers this season. If Detroit’s offense heats back up, backing Price at reasonable numbers may not be an option for much longer.

7) Corey Kluber – Cleveland Indians: After a nightmare start to the 2015 season, the 2014 Cy Young winner has rebounded to find better results even with a 3-8 record on the season. Kluber strikes out more than 10 batters per nine innings with a very low home run rate. His xFIP is the third lowest in the AL and he has been very unlucky this season with a .343 BABIP at this point in the season. Only Archer has struck out more batters in the league, but two incredibly dominant starts from mid-May are carrying too much weight for Kluber as he struck out 30 in 17 innings in back-to-back gems, a level of pitching that he has not come close to matching since.

8) C.J. Wilson – Los Angeles Angels: Wilson had a pretty rough 2014 season finishing with a 4.51 ERA, but he appears to be on a rebound path this year with a 3.39 ERA which matches his 2013 season in which he wound up 17-7 for the Angels. Wilson is just 5-5 this season and he appears to have his command under control with only 27 walks allowed this season after very high walk rates much of his career. Wilson has delivered five straight starts with at least seven strikeouts and while he has allowed four or more runs in five different outings this season, he is also delivering a lot of zeros with nine starts this season in which he has allowed two or fewer runs.

9) Jesse Chavez – Oakland Athletics: After starting the season in the bullpen, Chavez has performed well since being called back to the rotation. He lost five of his first six decisions, but he is yet to allow more than four runs in any start and he has the 6th lowest ERA in the AL with a FIP that is only slightly higher at this point in the season. He has struck out more than eight batters per nine innings and opponents are only batting .233 against him. Oakland continues to sit in the AL West basement, but Chavez has stepped into the rotation and put the Athletics in position to win in most of his outings even if it has not always happened with the struggles of the Oakland bullpen.

10) Danny Salazar – Cleveland Indians: With the top strikeout rate in the AL, Salazar has delivered some big games for the Indians and he is 6-2 despite a disappointing start for Cleveland in the standings. Salazar owns a .313 BABIP and he has allowed 10 home runs in 11 starts as he is still making a lot of mistakes despite his high ceiling potential. Salazar has certainly been a bit erratic and that has been the case his entire career at the big league level, though this time he appears here to stay in the Cleveland rotation after bouncing back and forth the past two seasons. Salazar has the 5th lowest xFIP in the AL, but he needs to start keeping the ball in the park to really be considered an elite pitcher in the league.

11) Yovani Gallardo – Texas Rangers: After a rocky April, Gallardo has been the front-line starter the Rangers have needed to reemerge in the AL playoff race, certainly one of the big surprises of the first half of the season at this point. Gallardo has certainly out-pitched all of his former teammates in the Milwaukee rotation and he has very good numbers across the board for the Rangers, including allowing just five earned runs in his last five starts with Texas going 4-1 in that run. This might be the ceiling for Gallardo on this list as he seems likely to allow more home runs than he has and he pitches in a challenging home ballpark but so far he has been a good acquisition for a surprising contender.

12) Jake Odorizzi – Tampa Bay Rays: While Odorizzi is currently on the DL, he is expected back in the Tampa Bay rotation soon. He has walked only 15 batters this season, featuring a 1.02 WHIP that is the 6th best in the AL, while his 2.47 ERA is the 4th best in the AL. The advanced numbers don’t support Odorizzi quite as much as he owns a lower strikeout rate than almost everyone on this list and his xFIP is more than a run higher than his ERA. Not walking batters often and allowing few home runs is a formula for success and Odorizzi has been a vital piece of Tampa’s success this season even though he currently owns a losing record.

13) Alfredo Simon – Detroit Tigers: Replacing Max Scherzer in the rotation was going to be a big challenge for Detroit, but the Tigers have to be pleased with what Simon has done to this point. He owns the 7th lowest ERA in the AL at 2.58 and he has been remarkably consistent including posting a Game Score of 50 or higher in each of his last six starts. A 4.06 xFIP is certainly a warning sign as Simon has caught some bounces in his favor this season in a 7-3 start, but he remains a viable option for the Tigers on most nights.

14) Trevor Bauer – Cleveland Indians: Bauer has had some issues with walks this season, but his strikeout counts have been impressive en route to good overall numbers for the 24-year old. Bauer has posted a Game Score of 69 or higher nine times this season, but he also has four outings with a Game Score below 50 as he has been a bit all over the map this season. That high ceiling will make him attractive in the underdog role and he has won six of his nine decisions even behind a limited Cleveland offense. Only Hernandez, Sale, and Gray have a higher Median Game Score among AL starters as Bauer is capable of delivering dominant outings if you can deal with the occasional dud.

15) Michael Pineda – New York Yankees: A case can certainly be made for Pineda as one of the better pitchers in the AL. He owns a .335 BABIP as he the potential to post even better numbers the rest of the way will be there, as that figure normalizes and his advanced numbers suggest better results than his solid but not great 3.54 ERA which is just 23rd best in the AL. Pineda has walked just 11 batters in over 81 innings this season, but he has allowed 85 hits this season while battling some inconsistency having posted five Game Scores of 47 or lower. He struck out 16 in seven innings in a May start vs. Baltimore, but he has not consistently shown the same type of strikeout potential.

Next Five: Carlos Carrasco – Cleveland Indians, Anibal Sanchez – Detroit Tigers, Miguel Gonzalez, Baltimore Orioles, Clay Buchholz, Boston Red Sox, Scott Kazmir, Oakland Athletics.

Newcomers to Watch: Chi Chi Gonzalez – Texas Rangers, Lance McCullers – Houston Astros, Carlos Rodon – Chicago White Sox.

Stock Sliding: Collin McHugh – Houston Astros, Jered Weaver – Los Angeles Angels, Nathan Eovaldi – New York Yankees.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Blue Jays place RHP Dickey on bereavement list
The Sports Xchange

The Toronto Blue Jays placed right-handed starting pitcher R.A. Dickey on the bereavement list Friday following the death of his father.

Dickey's father died Tuesday night, but the knuckleballer wanted to make his scheduled start on Thursday against the New York Mets.

Dickey won the 2012 National League Cy Young Award with the Mets and then was traded to the Blue Jays in December of that year. In his first start against the Mets since the trade, Dickey (3-6) allowed three hits and one run over 7 1/3 innings and the Blue Jays defeated the Mets 7-1.

The Blue Jays also recalled infielder Munenori Kawasaki from Triple-A Buffalo to fill Dickey's roster spot.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Cardinals promote two from Memphis
The Sports Xchange

The St. Louis Cardinals recalled infielder Greg Garcia and first baseman Xavier Scruggs from Triple-A Memphis on Friday.

The club also optioned catcher Ed Easley and right-hander Mitch Harris to Memphis following Thursday's loss to the Minnesota Twins.

Garcia, 25, is hitting .313 with nine stolen bases in 61 games with Memphis this season. He can play both middle infield positions.

Scruggs, 27, was recalled for the second time this season, appearing in one game as a pinch hitter on May 15 before returning to Memphis. He has a team-leading 11 home runs and 34 RBIs with Memphis.

Easley made his major league debut on May 29. He appeared in two games and had an RBI.

Harris, who made his big-league debut on April 25, appeared in 16 games, with a 1-1 record and 3.63 ERA over 17 1/3 innings.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Saturday's six-pack

College football recruiting notes, from Phil Steele's magazine.......

-- Six of the top ten freshman classes this year are in the SEC.

-- Jim Harbaugh had a late start, brought in the #40 recruiting class this year.

-- Top four freshman QBs are at: UCLA-Texas A&M-Alabama-Ohio State.

-- UNLV hired Tony Sanchez as coach, from Bishop Gorman HS, a regional power, but he brought in only the 107th ranked recruiting class.

-- One of his players ar Bishop Gorman was Cordell Broadus, who is going to UCLA; he is the #35 WR, and is Snoop Dawg's son.

-- Boise State brought in Brett Rypien, the #24 QB, the nephew of former NFL QB Mark Rypien.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

At the Gate - Saturday
By Mike Dempsey

The ladies take center stage in our featured races of the day, the $150,000 Bed O’ Roses Handicap (G3) at Belmont Park and the $200,000 Summertime Oaks (G2) from Santa Anita.

The Bed O’ Roses drew a field of eight fillies and mares led by the speedy La Verdad, who has won 12 of her 18 career starts. The Linda Rice trainee is coming off a win in the Vagrancy Handicap (G3), earning a career top speed figure in the process.

Seven furlongs is not her best distance, but if she can shake loose early she may prove tough to run down.

Dame Dorothy shipped to Churchill Downs to win the Humana Distaff (G1) in a game effort in her last outing and looks likely to be running late and if the extra ground gets to the likely favorite, this gal may run her down late.

The Summertime Oaks drew a field of nine three-year-old fillies led by Stellar Wind who won the Santa Anita Oaks (G1) back in April and was the beaten favorite in the Kentucky Oaks (G1) in her last outing. She likely goes off less than her 5-2 morning line.

Tara’s Tango will be saddled by Jerry Hollendorfer and will go two turns for the first time. She ran second in the Angel’s Flight in her last outing.

The co-feature at Santa Anita is the $75,000 Singletary for three-year-olds going a mile on the grass. The Jeff Mulllins trained Soul Driver is coming off a third in the Pasadena and looks like the best value if he goes off near his 5-1 morning line.

The morning line favorite at 4-1 is Royal Albert Hall, who is 0 for 3 since coming to the U.S. and landing with the Doug O’Neill barn. The gelding ran a good second to Bolo last out in the allowance ranks.


Here is today’s opening race from Belmont Park to get the day off to a good start:

BEL Race 1 Clm $12,500 (1:20 ET)
8 Reggie D 7-2
1 John Silver 6-1
7 Love to Run 5-2
3 Tug of War 3-1

Analysis: Reggie D stalked the early pace and finished evenly in a fourth place finish last out for this tag going seven furlongs. The gelding has a habit of landing for minor shares, four wins and 10 seconds, but catches a pretty weak group here sent out by mostly low % outfits.

John Silver was not a threat last out in an 11th place finish against state bred Alw-1 foes and drops back in for a tag. He won his two previous starts, beating non-winners of two and three. He figures to bounce back with a better effort facing easier and is reunited with Junior who was aboard for all three of his career wins.

Wagering
WIN: #8 to win at 5-2 or better.
EX: 1,8 / 1,3,7,8
TRI: 1,8 / 1,3,7,8 / 1,3,5,7,8

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Belmont Park:

BEL Race 8 Bed O' Roses Handicap G3 (4:57 ET)
6 La Verdad 2-1
4 Dame Dorothy 9-5
3 Room for Me 4-1
8 Street Story 6-1

Analysis: La Verdad took the field gate to wire to win the Vagrancy Handicap (G3) last out for her 12th win in 18 career starts. The runner up Room for Me came back to beat $100,000 optional claimers in her next outing here on May 24. The Linda Rice trainee earned a career top speed fig and that was at 6 1/2 furlongs. Stretching her speed out to seven furlongs is the question mark, she is 0 for 2 at the distance. She makes her third start off the bench and her best shot is if she is able to shake loose early and she does own a good edge in early and mid pace numbers. She has won five of her six starts here with a second.

Dame Dorothy was a game winner of the Humana Distaff (G1) last out at Churchill Downs at today's seven-furlong distance. She has won six of her eight career starts but her 93 Beyer she earned last out is her career best and it just does not stack up to our top pick's numbers. She does have a win over the surface, taking the Turnback the Alarm 'Cap (G3) at 1 1/16 miles last fall.

Wagering
WIN: #6 to win at 8-5 or better.
EX: 4,6 / 3,4,6,8
TRI: 4,6 / 3,4,6,8 / 3,4,5,6,8

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Santa Anita:

SA Race 8 The Summertime Oaks G2 (4:14 PT)
9 Stellar Wind 5-2
6 Tara's Tango 4-1
2 Sheer Pleasure 4-1
7 Conquest Curlgirl 12-1

Analysis: Stellar Wind had a tough post in the Kentucky Oaks (G1), had to steady in the early going, had to come with a very wide run and rallied mildly to finish fourth last out as the 3-1 betting favorite. She came into the race off a sharp win in the Santa Anita Oaks (G1) two back. The Sadler trainee has worked smartly since her last outing including a bullet drill on June 16. She is perfect in two trips here and figures to bounce back with a much better effort here facing easier.

Tara's Tango stretches out to two turns for the first time here after a good effort in a runner up finish in the Angel's Flight last out going seven furlongs. The third place finisher in the race was Ben's Duchess, who came back to beat Alw-1 optional claimers in her next outing on June 14 here. She has enough pedigree to handle the extra ground, by Unbridled's Song out of a French Deputy mare. The Jerry Hollendorfer barn is 21% winners moving runners from sprint to route.

Wagering
WIN: #9 to win at 9-5 or better.
EX: 6,9 / 2,6,7,9
TRI: 6,9 / 2,6,7,9 / 2,5,6,7,9

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Belmont Park
R4: #8 Greg’s Fourwheeler 10-1
R5: #2 Ready Strike 8-1
R6: #4 Zafiro Azul 10-1
R7: #4 Shore to Party 10-1
R9: #8 G R’s Giant 8-1
R10: #2 Clear Nite 8-1

Good luck today!